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Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of a Dynamic Multi-Track Airway Concept for Air Traffic Management

The Dynamic Multi-track Airways (DMA) Concept for Air Traffic Management (ATM) proposes a network of high-altitude airways constructed of multiple, closely spaced, parallel tracks designed to increase en-route capacity in high-demand airspace corridors. Segregated from non-airway operations, these multi-track airways establish high-priority traffic flow corridors along optimal routes between major terminal areas throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Air traffic controllers transition aircraft equipped for DMA operations to DMA entry points, the aircraft use autonomous control of airspeed to fly the continuous-airspace airway and achieve an economic benefit, and controllers then transition the aircraft from the DMA exit to the terminal area. Aircraft authority within the DMA includes responsibility for spacing and/or separation from other DMA aircraft. The DMA controller is responsible for coordinating the entry and exit of traffic to and from the DMA and for traffic flow management (TFM), including adjusting DMA routing on a daily basis to account for predicted weather and wind patterns and re-routing DMAs in real time to accommodate unpredicted weather changes. However, the DMA controller is not responsible for monitoring the DMA for traffic separation. This report defines the mature state concept, explores its feasibility and performance, and identifies potential benefits. The report also discusses (a) an analysis of a single DMA, which was modeled within the NAS to assess capacity and determine the impact of a single DMA on regional sector loads and conflict potential; (b) a demand analysis, which was conducted to determine likely city-pair candidates for a nationwide DMA network and to determine the expected demand fraction; (c) two track configurations, which were modeled and analyzed for their operational characteristic; (d) software-prototype airborne capabilities developed for DMA operations research; (e) a feasibility analysis of key attributes in the concept design; (f) a near-term, transitional application of the DMA concept as a proving ground for new airborne technologies; and (g) conclusions. The analysis indicates that the operational feasibility of a national DMA network faces significant challenges, especially for interactions between DMAs and between DMA and non-DMA traffic. Provided these issues are resolved, sectors near DMAs could experience significant local capacity benefits.

Wing, David J.↗

The Compelling Need for a Mid-Scale Stellarator Facility

In the pursuit of the goal of commercial fusion as an abundant and safe source of energy, the stellarator is a leading concept with compelling attractiveness and demonstrated performance. A new mid-size stellarator is needed to retire risks and innovate towards a high performance, economically attractive, stellarator Fusion Pilot Plant. In this presentation we, as a community of US researchers from Universities, National Laboratories, and Private Industry, involved in studying the stellarator concept, lay out the programmatic and technical motivation for a new and modern mid-size stellarator research facility. A new mid-scale stellarator is needed to realize the potential predicted by a solid body of theory and simulation along with advances in computational tools for optimization and non-linear turbulence modeling. Notably, it is possible to combine the advantages of the stellarator (steady state, no current drive, no disruptions) with the good confinement regularly achieved in tokamaks. The top priorities for experimental work, and the motivation for a mid-scale stellarator experiment are: turbulence control, non-resonant divertor, MHD stability at large beta, confinement of fast particles, and coil simplification. A new mid-size quasi-symmetric stellarator, built as a user facility, would complement existing research at Wendelstein 7-X and LHD and strongly augment private industry. It would provide a program of innovative research, concept validation, theoretical advancement, and workforce development. Growing support and interest for stellarators by the fusion community and private industry affirms this rationale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comprehensive assessment of metrology techniques for heliostat efficiency and performance evaluation

Concentrating solar power plants, specifically central receiver type systems and their heliostat field, are struggling with negative reputation in the USA, due to perceived underperformance and reliability issues. This is in part due to a lack of standards for performance assessment as well as overly simplified techno-economical models. A better understanding of influences and losses along the solar radiation path from the sun, across the solar collector to the receiver, increases the fidelity of heliostat efficiency assessment as well as solar field performance predictions. Such data are currently scarce and require a complete set of metrology capabilities to evaluate direct solar irradiance, sun shape, atmospheric attenuation, reflectance, collector shape, slope errors and total beam dispersion. In preparation for establishing a 3rd party metrology platform in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, NLR conducted a scoping study on available metrology. We present an extensive overview of techniques and commercial systems for each category. Our work includes an analysis to increase understanding of strengths and limitations of the many techniques used for surface shape and slope measurement. This applies to a controlled, indoor or outdoor laboratory environment assessing a single heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 11: Potential usefulness of CARETS data for environmental impact assessment

The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 requires that Federal agencies prepare environmental impact statements (EIS) for all proposed actions that significantly affect the quality of the environment. The EIS builds a predictive model of beneficial or adverse changes resulting from an action. Environmental impact statement preparation requires identification of environmental, social, and economic conditions likely to change and also requires prediction of intensity and spatial dimensions of changes. The Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS) project has produced land use data that can be of value for such assessment. To ascertain the types of proposed actions requiring EIS's, all EIS's prepared for proposed actions in the test site between January 1970 and June 1974 were reviewed. The actions were divided into seven categories: (1) construction of transportation and communication facilities; (2) construction of power plant, powerline, and fuel line facilities; (3) urban renewal, new town development projects, and multistory building construction; (4) construction of facilities for watershed protection and development;, (5) construction of waste treatment and disposal facilities (6) maintenance dredging, navigation improvements, and beach erosion control and replenishment projects; and (7) establishing or enhancing land and water conservation areas. Examples of actions from each category were selected for more detailed study. In view of the types of projects being proposed, an approach to environmental impact assessment using land use and water data as central inputs was recommended. The viability of such an approach as well as other approaches depends upon the availability of quantitative data such as those produced by the CARETS project.

Environmental impact assessment↗

Computational fluid dynamic analysis of a novel particle-to-air fluidized-bed heat exchanger for particle-based thermal energy storage applications

Long-duration energy storage technologies are being targeted to enable cost-effective, decarbonized energy systems. Particle-based thermal energy storage systems are one promising technology by storing excess electricity or heat as sensible thermal energy in inexpensive, solid, inert particles. These systems are only possible if an effective and economical particle-to-working fluid heat exchanger exists. This study predicts the performance of a proposed, direct-contact, particle-to-air, pressurized fluidized-bed heat exchanger using computational fluid dynamics. The common Eulerian-Eulerian framework for modeling fluidized beds is first benchmarked to experimental results at a previously untested operating condition and application. Then, the benchmarked model evaluates the performance of a proposed design for a commercial-scale version of the novel particle-to-air heat exchanger. The results show pressure drop and gas-phase approach temperatures are advantageous compared to other proposed designs for particle-to-air heat exchangers in the literature; approach temperatures were less than 5 °C and gas-phase pressure drop across the fluidized bed was 32 kPa. The model also highlights the importance of gas distributor design and representation in the Eulerian-Eulerian framework to control fluidization behavior. In conclusion, the model built and benchmarked in this study can be leveraged to advance the design and analysis of these heat exchangers critical to the deployment of a promising long-duration energy storage technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Predicting the Microgravity Performance of Terrestrial Portable Fire Extinguishers

Portable fire extinguishers (PFEs) are a key component of spacecraft emergency response systems. The International Space Station uses custom PFEs to meet the unique microgravity and enclosed space requirements of the vehicle. For future crewed missions to Low Earth Orbit and Deep Space destinations, terrestrial commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) PFEs may offer more economical solutions for the destination as well as the visiting vehicle. However, depending on the design of both the spacecraft and the PFE, the reduced gravity environment is likely to impact PFE performance, especially when multiphase microgravity liquid transport processes are present. Additionally, many terrestrial PFEs now use halocarbons as the suppressant. While studies show these are effective in certain terrestrial fires, some data suggest that low concentrations may actually exacerbate a fire, a phenomenon that would prove particularly concerning in spacecraft. To better characterize the potential of employing COTS hardware, two terrestrial PFEs, one charged with HFC-227ea and Nitrogen pressurant and one charged with carbon dioxide, were modeled to predict performance in both 1-g and microgravity environments. Testing was conducted in 1-g to validate the model. Testing was also conducted to evaluate the effect of sub-extinguishment HFC-227ea concentrations on burn rate in controlled samples. Here we provide a detailed description of the model, report the methods and results of PFE testing, discuss the predicted effects of microgravity on PFE performance, and report the results of material burn rates at sub-extinguishment levels of HFC-227ea.

Morgan B Abney↗

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

Development of an Advanced Hydrogen Energy Storage System using Aerogel in a Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense fluid storage core with integrated design features that afford the designer flexibility and provide new possibilities for the storage and discharge of energy. The stored energy, in this case, is represented by hydrogen physically bonded within the nanoscale pores within the aerogel composite blanket material, and the process of bonding or debonding is governed by the principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (~1,000 m 2 /g) allows for storage densities close to, or in some cases exceeding, that of normal boiling point liquids. Its performance easily exceeds what can be achieved via ambient temperature and high-pressure gas storage for an equivalent volume. CFC storage is predicted to be easily scalable, constructed from readily available commercial materials, and lends itself to a range of pressure applications. The project team designed and manufactured the CFC, integrating it into a set of temperature-controlled flow loops. The CFC test setup was validated against existing data from previous NASA work. Tests used bottled hydrogen gas for test validation. A cryogenic fluid, nitrogen, flowed through a metered control system. Hydrogen temperature, pressure, and flow rates, as well as the temperature control targets, provided all necessary control targets. The team analyzed the recorded data and updated the Technology Maturation Plan based on the results of the test, making recommendations for a follow-up test, scale-up, and maturation pathway. For the engineering development and maturation of CFC hydrogen storage technology, a Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) and Commercialization Plan for the integration of this technology with various power generation assets were produced. A companion analytical model was developed, experimentally validated, compared against performance metric, and used to tune the model and scale up the technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Method for Aircraft Concept Selection Using Multicriteria Interactive Genetic Algorithms

The problem of aircraft concept selection has become increasingly difficult in recent years as a result of a change from performance as the primary evaluation criteria of aircraft concepts to the current situation in which environmental effects, economics, and aesthetics must also be evaluated and considered in the earliest stages of the decision-making process. This has prompted a shift from design using historical data regression techniques for metric prediction to the use of physics-based analysis tools that are capable of analyzing designs outside of the historical database. The use of optimization methods with these physics-based tools, however, has proven difficult because of the tendency of optimizers to exploit assumptions present in the models and drive the design towards a solution which, while promising to the computer, may be infeasible due to factors not considered by the computer codes. In addition to this difficulty, the number of discrete options available at this stage may be unmanageable due to the combinatorial nature of the concept selection problem, leading the analyst to arbitrarily choose a sub-optimum baseline vehicle. These concept decisions such as the type of control surface scheme to use, though extremely important, are frequently made without sufficient understanding of their impact on the important system metrics because of a lack of computational resources or analysis tools. This paper describes a hybrid subjective/quantitative optimization method and its application to the concept selection of a Small Supersonic Transport. The method uses Genetic Algorithms to operate on a population of designs and promote improvement by varying more than sixty parameters governing the vehicle geometry, mission, and requirements. In addition to using computer codes for evaluation of quantitative criteria such as gross weight, expert input is also considered to account for criteria such as aeroelasticity or manufacturability which may be impossible or too computationally expensive to consider explicitly in the analysis. Results indicate that concepts resulting from the use of this method represent designs which are promising to both the computer and the analyst, and that a mapping between concepts and requirements that would not otherwise be apparent is revealed.

Buonanno, Michael↗

Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency

The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

From Fluid Flow to Coupled Processes in Fractured Rock: Recent Advances and New Frontiers

Abstract Quantitative predictions of natural and induced phenomena in fractured rock is one of the great challenges in the Earth and Energy Sciences with far‐reaching economic and environmental impacts. Fractures occupy a very small volume of a subsurface formation but often dominate fluid flow, solute transport and mechanical deformation behavior. They play a central role in CO 2 sequestration, nuclear waste disposal, hydrogen storage, geothermal energy production, nuclear nonproliferation, and hydrocarbon extraction. These applications require predictions of fracture‐dependent quantities of interest such as CO 2 leakage rate, hydrocarbon production, radionuclide plume migration, and seismicity; to be useful, these predictions must account for uncertainty inherent in subsurface systems. Here, we review recent advances in fractured rock research covering field‐ and laboratory‐scale experimentation, numerical simulations, and uncertainty quantification. We discuss how these have greatly improved the fundamental understanding of fractures and one's ability to predict flow and transport in fractured systems. Dedicated field sites provide quantitative measurements of fracture flow that can be used to identify dominant coupled processes and to validate models. Laboratory‐scale experiments fill critical knowledge gaps by providing direct observations and measurements of fracture geometry and flow under controlled conditions that cannot be obtained in the field. Physics‐based simulation of flow and transport provide a bridge in understanding between controlled simple laboratory experiments and the massively complex field‐scale fracture systems. Finally, we review the use of machine learning‐based emulators to rapidly investigate different fracture property scenarios and accelerate physics‐based models by orders of magnitude to enable uncertainty quantification and near real‐time analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗