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At least 91 records · Page 5

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Dynamic Networks Experiments: Virtual Experiments to Quantify Gains in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

We describe an ongoing series of virtual experiments conducted collaboratively by four United States National Laboratories: Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These Dynamic Network Experiments (DNEs) provide an experimental framework to evaluate the potential impact of new research tools on nuclear explosion monitoring. The second DNE (DNE2), completed in 2024, exploited waveform data (seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic) that was recorded by multi-modal sensors within and near the Nevada National Security Site and synthetic radionuclide signatures over multiple time periods. During the execution of DNE2, we processed and analyzed data through a multi-stage event processing pipeline that ingested raw data, performed quality control, detected signals, built events from these signals, located these events, and characterized the events’ source types and sizes. For each stage and over the entire event processing pipeline, we evaluated performance changes by comparing the performance of new data processing methods, models, and algorithms against a baseline. We also performed an additional execution phase to assess event processing pipeline function, speed, and efficiency against that of an expert analyst, including computational and manual efforts. Finally, we assessed the impact and effort of modern computing infrastructure on the monitoring pipeline. This paper describes key elements of the DNEs, from formulation through execution, as demonstrated in DNE2. The DNEs introduce several novel concepts to quantitatively measure the potential impact of new methods on explosion monitoring, including the collaborative design of multi-modal datasets, performance and logistical metrics, and integrated analyses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations

Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.

Battery minerals↗

Active High Assurance Authentication Protocol (AHAAP)

The AHAAP Maturation Project involves maturation and evaluation of a patented zero-trust tamper-resistant high-assurance session-less dynamic and active device authentication protocol that simultaneously authenticates identity and provides integrity verification in a single step, substantially reducing the risk of cyberattack, and eliminating the need for costly and complex conventional communication security systems requirements (i.e., cryptography, Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), and key management). These cybersecurity attributes of the technology must be preserved when applying the technology to different cybersecurity solutions, including Command & Control (C&C), Over-the-Air (OTA) update, Common Access Card (CAC), and distributed energy resource (DER) implementations, among others. The technology research objective is to test and verify that the cybersecurity attributes of the technology are not degraded in different cybersecurity applications. The primary technology development objective is to build minimum viable products to demonstrate the technology addresses today’s cybersecurity threats so that prospective investors, strategic partners, regulatory agencies, and commercial customers can interact with and assess the protection assured by the technology. The AHAAP Maturation Project goal is to develop, test, and validate one or more AHAAP implementations. The AHAAP Maturation Project tasks are: (i) engineer AHAAP implementation software, (ii) build a functional prototype that implements the AHAAP software for demonstration, testing, analysis, and evaluation purposes, and (iii) generate a report detailing the results of the AHAAP C&C software and hardware implementation. The final project deliverables are: (i) AHAAP software implementation and prototype, (ii) a report from Sandia National Laboratories detailing the results of the AHAAP implementations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the impact of Byzantine attacks on coupled phase oscillators

Abstract For many coupled dynamical systems, the interaction is the outcome of the measurement that each unit has of the others as e.g. in modern inverter-based power grids, autonomous vehicular platoons or swarms of drones, or it is the result of physical flows. Synchronization among all the components of these systems is of primal importance to avoid failures. The overall operational state of these systems therefore crucially depends on the correct and reliable functioning of the individual elements as well as the information they transmit through the network. Here, we investigate the effect of Byzantine attacks where one unit does not behave as expected, but is controlled by an external attacker. For such attacks, we assess the impact on the global collective behavior of nonlinearly coupled phase oscillators. We relate the synchronization error induced by the input signal to the properties of the attacked node. This allows to anticipate the potential of an attacker and identify which network components to secure.

Tyloo, Melvyn (ORCID:0000000317614095)↗

Impact Analysis of Data Integrity Attacks on FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control System

Energy management system (EMS) consists of several wide-area control applications that serve as a backbone for security, stability, and reliability of the power system. Wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), one of the critical wide-area applications, operates in coordination with local Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices to provide voltage security and optimal management of active and reactive power resources. Since the WAVCS relies on wide-area communication and data sharing devices, possible cybersecurity vulnerabilities have to be addressed to ensure the closed-loop operation of WAVCS. In this paper, we present a methodology for performing an impact analysis of cyber-attacks in WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, different types of data integrity attacks, such as malicious tripping, fault replay, and signal altering attacks, are considered, and detailed impact analysis is conducted in a testbed environment using the Kundur's four machine two-area system. For performing an impact analysis, the transient voltage stability of the sensitive bus voltage is studied, followed by the quantitative assessment and severity ranking using the voltage profile index. Our experimental evaluation reveals that the data integrity attacks on control signals exhibit a higher attack severity than on the measurement signals. Further, the severity of these attacks varies with nature (static or dynamic), location, and types of attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrical Fault Detection, Power Quality, Distributed Energy Resource Use Cases, and Cyber Event Applications with the Cyber Grid Guard System Using Distributed Ledger Technology

Electrical utilities continue to deploy more intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) inside and outside electrical substation and are associated with distributed energy resources (DERs). The integrity and confidentiality of data from IEDs is crucial, and distributed ledger technology (DLT) could improve the resilience of microgrids by helping to make these data more secure. The most popular applications using blockchain technology for electrical utilities is in the field is based on energy trading. However, the dynamism of the penetration of customer owned DERs and the deployment of sensors with IEDs have led to the identification of new applications using DLT that are focused on other areas, such as monitoring, operation and management of the grid and its assets. In addition, the majority of studies on electrical grid applications with blockchain were validated with software simulations. Although general monitoring of power systems for using DLT could be evaluated in operational electric grids, other DLT research applications such as defense against cyber-attacks and/or electrical fault detection are not likely to be performed in a real infrastructure because of possible risks to the network/equipment security. This report summarizes the application of power system applications using distributed ledger technology (DLT), providing a secure DLT framework for collecting data from IEDs like power meters and protective relays inside and outside of an electrical substation and/or between two different electrical utilities. In this study, the use case scenarios were created and assessed for different power system application by using DLT. The electrical fault detection for faulted phases (1), power quality monitoring of phase voltage magnitudes, frequency levels and load power factor (2), DERs use case monitoring (3), and cyber-event applications (4) were performed in a test bed with a Cyber-Grid Guard (CGG) system using DLT. It had a real-time simulator with power meters and protective relays in-the-loop. The first section of this report presents a literature review of power system applications using blockchain at research level. The second section shows the theory and equations used on this report. The third section shows the description of the test bed, equipment, architecture, and electrical grid diagrams. The fourth section shows the experimental models and use case scenarios that were performed for the electrical fault detection, power quality, DERs use case, and cyber event applications with the CGG system using DLT. The fifth section shows the results collected from the tests based on comparing the time stamped events of the analog signals from the IEDs, DLT computer and real time simulator. The sixth section performed the discussion of the results for the use case scenarios. Finally, section seven presents the conclusions for this report were presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Arctic Critical Infrastructure: Assessing and Predicting the Risk to Critical Permafrost Infrastructure from Climate Change: A New Thermomechanical Approach

This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design Optimization of A generic Fissile Solution for Mo99 production using Electron Beam-based Neutron Generator using MCNP+CFD

Molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) is a medical isotope used in 80% of all medical imaging procedures today. However, 99 Mo is not directly administered to patients for imaging; its decay product, technetium-99m ( 99 mTc), is a metastable isotope with a half-life of ~6 hours. Such a short half-life does not allow for production, separation, and application to a patient before decaying further. Therefore, the solution is to produce the precursor to 99 mTc, 99 Mo. 99 Mo has a half-life of 66 hours, long enough to produce the material and send it to the desired location before it fully decays. Under National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) highly enriched uranium (HEU) minimization mission, the Material Management and Minimization (M3) office leads the Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) program. A major goal of the Mo-99 program is to develop methods of producing 99 Mo using low enriched uranium (LEU) opposed to the traditionally used HEU domestically in the U.S. Internationally, LEU is the new standard for use in research reactors and isotope production facility. In this study, we introduce a generic fissile solution system for 99 Mo production facility meeting the design requirement of 1) LEU usage as fissile material and 2) subcritical fissile system coupled with a horizontal electron beam (E-beam) accelerator. The focus of this research is to optimize a fissile solution configuration for maximum 99 Mo production yield using MCNP model, and ultimately implement the optimized design with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to understand thermal hydraulic behavior and solution convection characteristic. The report consists of two parts: 1) isotope yield calculation and criticality analysis with a wide range of parametric test matrix, and 2) thermal hydraulic analysis for solution mixing and cooling assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Grid Architecture Mapping to Understand Transformation (GAMUT): Concept Definition

The electric power system is undergoing significant transformation driven by changes in the generation mix, increasing reliance on information and communication technologies, evolving customer expectations, and a dynamic cyber-physical environment. To address these challenges, substantial investments will be made over the next decade to create a flexible, affordable, secure, reliable, and resilient electric system. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity is developing knowledge management tools aimed at systematically documenting technology pilots and demonstration projects. This initiative seeks to improve understanding of operating contexts, planning steps, and integration requirements for innovative grid technologies. The Department of Energy project leverages Grid Architecture principles to collect and organize insights into the interdependencies, requirements, and capabilities of various grid solutions. By employing a systematic approach, the project aims to perform a feasibility study for the development of a software tool that will support stakeholders, including regulators, transmission and distribution system operators, distributed energy resources aggregators, and technology providers. By offering a systematic, software-based framework to document technologies, understand their benefits and impacts, and inform deployment strategies, the proposed Grid Architecture Mapping to Understand Transformation (GAMUT) Tool is intended to reduce costs, enhance decision-making, and facilitate scaling and effective deployment of new technologies. The feasibility study will evaluate the technical and financial viability of the GAMUT Tool, identifying stakeholder needs and assessing risks and mitigation strategies. Ultimately, the GAMUT team aims to develop an initial minimal viable product, followed by staged improvements, to aid in the modernization of the electric grid, contributing to a more sustainable and resilient energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Method for Assessment of Security-Relevant Settings in Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection for Industrial Control Systems

Ensuring the integrity of Ethernet-based networks is a challenging and constantly evolving domain. This problem is exacerbated for those operational technology (OT) networks supporting industrial control systems (ICS) since much of that equipment was originally designed to be on a network that was isolated and generally considered free of malefactors. Increasing pressure to bridge these systems with traditional information technology (IT) networks has introduced a bevy of new threats. In response, both academia and industry have responded with security solutions tailored to ICS environments. Deploying these protection systems often involves several configuration choices. While some of these choices are clear (e.g., block/enable protocol X) others are far more subjective (e.g. alert threshold == 3.43). Further complicating the situation, while often similar to IT networks, OT networks have unique challenges and characteristics that make the task of protecting them simultaneously more difficult and straight forward.Extant solutions for quantifying the relative security of intrusion detection systems fail to effectively support the operators of said systems with understanding the impact of various configuration changes. Further, they assume that the attacks are static and not subject to manipulation or alteration in the face of defenses. In this paper, we present a threat-based method for quantifying the relative impact of various security settings for intrusion detection systems (IDSs) within ICS environments. This method provides operational staff with a clear understanding of the relative impact of their settings and assumes that the attacks levied against them are dynamic. The model is described in detail, we apply the model to a synthetic data set, and discuss the inferences that can be made and what types of decisions they could be used to support.

Gillen, Rob↗

Generic characterization of electrical test benches for AC- and HVDC-connected wind power plants

The electrical test and assessment of wind turbines go hand in hand with standards and network connection requirements. In this paper, the generic structure of advanced electrical test benches, including grid emulator or controllable grid interface, wind torque emulator, and device under test, is proposed to harmonize state-of-the-art test sites. On the other hand, modern wind turbines are under development towards new features, concerning grid-forming, black-start, and frequency support capabilities as well as harmonic stability and control interaction considerations, to secure the robustness and stability of renewable-energy-based power systems. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new and revised test standards and methodologies to address the new features of wind turbines. This paper proposes a generic test structure within two main groups, including open-loop and closed-loop tests. The open-loop tests include the IEC 61400-21-1 standard tests as well as the additional proposed test options for the new capabilities of wind turbines, which replicate grid connection compliance tests using open-loop references for the grid emulator. In addition, the closed-loop tests evaluate the device under test as part of a virtual wind power plant and perform real-time simulations considering the grid dynamics. The closed-loop tests concern grid connection topologies consisting of AC and HVDC, as well as different electrical characteristics, including impedance, short-circuit ratio, inertia, and background harmonics. The proposed tests can be implemented using available advanced test benches by adjusting their control systems. The characteristics of a real power system can be emulated by a grid emulator coupled with real-time digital simulator systems through a high-bandwidth power-hardware-in-the-loop interface.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validation and Demonstration of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an integrated energy system (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. The new RAVEN plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) only addresses the limits that affect the production variables and the corresponding rates of variation (explicit constraints). However, other variables are subject to constraints, and the associated limits should be accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response affects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. To obtain a more accurate approximation of the nonlinear dynamic behavior, a parametric version of the dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) algorithm was developed to derive the state-space representation matrices of the IES components at different scheduling parameter. Thanks to this approach, a more accurate approximation of the system response can be obtained, the limits imposed by thermal mechanical implicit constraints can be translated into power dispatch limits, and the feedbacks to HERON power dispatcher can be provided. To assess the developed methodology, a power dispatching test case composed of three power generating and storage units (Balance of Plant, Secondary Energy Source, Thermal Energy Storage) was developed. The power output of each one of the three units was optimized to meet the imposed time-dependent load demand trajectory and to maximize the IES profitability by meeting both the explicit and implicit constraints.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact of Reordering on the LU Factorization Performance of Bordered Block-Diagonal Sparse Matrix

Power engineers rely on computer-based simulation tools to assess grid performance and ensure security. At the core of these tools are solvers for sparse linear equations. When transformed into a bordered block-diagonal (BBD) structure, part of the sparse linear equation solving can be parallelized. This work focuses on using the Schur-complement-based method for LU factorization on BBD matrices, specifically, Jacobian matrices from large-scale systems. Our findings show that the natural ordering method outperforms the default ordering method in computational performance for each block of the BBD matrix. This observation is validated using synthetic 25k-bus and 70k-bus cases, showing a speedup of up to 38% when using natural ordering without permutation. Additionally, the impact of the number of partitions is studied, and the result shows that computational performance improves with more, smaller partitions in the BBD matrices.

BBD matrix↗

Effect of Formation Heterogeneity on CO 2 Dissolution in Subsurface Porous Media

Dissolution trapping is one of the most dominant mechanisms for the secure storage of CO 2 injected in porous subsurface formations saturated with brine. This trapping mechanism is enhanced by convective mixing, which occurs due to the gravitational instability between the different fluid layers in the aquifer. The reservoir permeability also plays a crucial role in the dissolution rate and overall fluid flow dynamics during the density-driven convection in porous media. Herein this study investigates the role of complex heterogeneity, i.e., irregular permeability distribution in CO 2 dissolution, using a novel experimental approach to create medium permeability heterogeneity in Hele–Shaw cells. Complex subsurface transport phenomena such as a preferential dissolution path, CO 2 sweep efficiency, changes in finger morphology, and CO 2 concentration distribution are visualized by creating heterogeneous media. Experimental results showed that reservoir permeability heterogeneity causes significant channeling effects and poor sweep efficiency. A scaling relationship between average finger growth rate (Gr) and permeability (k) was obtained as Gr [m s –1 ] = 266.8k [m 2 ] + 1.20 × 10 –6 . Furthermore, the mass of CO 2 dissolved is calculated using the spectrophotometric method to characterize the convective instability. The convective flux was analyzed by comparing the experimental dissolution flux with the theoretical diffusion flux, calculating a maximum Sherwood number of 6.8. The study’s findings improve the current understanding of the CO 2 convection morphology in heterogeneous media, allowing better assessment of long-term CO 2 storage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generative Vulnerability Assessment for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are highly susceptible to malicious attacks due to their complex dynamics and interconnectivity. A comprehensive understanding of their vulnerabilities is essential for designing effective resilience measures. This paper presents a data-driven attack generative system for evaluating the vulnerability of CPS. The proposed approach formulates the vulnerability assessment problem as determining the feasibility of a specific attack set based on two boundary functions that represent the effectiveness and stealthiness of attacks. The attack generative model is trained using a custom loss function, with two universal approximators designed to learn the effectiveness and stealthiness functions simultaneously. Theoretical results for successful generation and asymptotic convergence of the resulting training algorithm are given. As a result, the proposed approach is evaluated via numerical simulation of an IEEE 14-bus system and gas pipeline systems, demonstrating its viability in learning how to attack nonlinear CPS and identify potential vulnerabilities.

Computer systems organization↗