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DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire towers drive firebrand lofting: insights from coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations

Wildfire behavior is shaped by complex fire dynamics, with firebrands playing a critical role in spot fire ignition and fire spread. While previous studies have explored firebrand generation and transport, the specific role of towers and troughs from wildland fires in the lofting of firebrands remains unquantified. This study addresses that gap by using physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations to examine how wildfire towers (updrafts) and troughs (downdrafts) influence firebrand lofting. Our results show that the majority of firebrands (78.85%) are lofted from towers, where strong updrafts drive long-range transport. In contrast, only 21.15% of firebrands are lofted within troughs, where downdrafts cause most firebrands to fall near the fireline. We also find that firebrand size significantly influences lofting behavior, with smaller particles (1 mm radius) exhibiting the strongest correlation with updraft intensity. These findings highlight the dominant role of wildfire towers in promoting long-distance firebrand dispersal—an essential factor in rapid wildfire growth and wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire risks. By quantifying the relationship between firebrand lofting and fire-induced atmospheric features, this study provides critical insights to improve spot fire modeling, support mitigation planning, and enhance firefighter and WUI community safety in spot fire-prone regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Turbulence generation by shock interaction with a highly nonuniform medium

An initially planar shock wave propagating into a medium of nonuniform density will be perturbed, leading to the generation of postshock velocity perturbations. Using numerical simulations we study this phenomenon in the case of highly nonuniform density (order-unity normalized variance, $\sigma_\rho/\bar{\rho}\sim1$) and strong shocks (shock Mach numbers $\bar{M}_s\gtrsim10$). This leads to a highly disrupted shock and a turbulent postshock flow. We simulate this interaction for a range of shock drives and initial density configurations meant to mimic those which might be presently achieved in experiments. Theoretical considerations lead to scaling relations, which are found to reasonably predict the postshock turbulence properties. The turbulent velocity dispersion and turbulent Mach number are found to depend on the preshock density dispersion and shock speed in a manner consistent with the linear Richtymer-Meshkov instability prediction. We also show a dependence of the turbulence generation on the scale of density perturbations. The postshock pressure and density, which can be substantially reduced relative to the unperturbed case, are found to be reasonably predicted by a simplified analysis that treats the extended shock transition region as a single normal shock.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A multi-terawatt two-color beam for high-power field-controlled nonlinear optics

Two-color laser beams are instrumental in light-field control and enhancement of high-order harmonic, spectral supercontinuum, and terahertz radiation generated in gases, plasmas, and solids. Here we demonstrate a multi-terawatt two-color beam produced using a relativistic plasma mirror, with 110 mJ at 800 nm and 30 mJ at 400 nm. Both color components have high spatial quality and can be simultaneously focused, provided that the plasma mirror lies within a Rayleigh range of the driving fundamental beam. Favorable scaling of second-harmonic generation by plasma mirrors at relativistic intensities suggests them as an excellent tool for multi-color waveform synthesis beyond the petawatt level.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic clay microstructures emerge via ion complexation waves

Clays control carbon, water and nutrient transport in the lithosphere, promote cloud formation5 and lubricate fault slip through interactions among hydrated mineral interfaces. Clay mineral properties are difficult to model because their structures are disordered, curved and dynamic. Consequently, interactions at the clay mineral-aqueous interface have been approximated using electric double layer models based on single crystals of mica and atomistic simulations. We discover that waves of complexation dipoles at dynamically curving interfaces create an emergent long-range force that drives exfoliation and restacking over time- and length-scales that are not captured in existing models. Curvature delocalizes electrostatic interactions in ways that fundamentally differ from planar surfaces, altering the ratio of ions bound to the convex and concave sides of a layer. Multiple-scattering reconstruction of low-dose energy-filtered cryo electron tomography enabled direct imaging of ion complexes and electrolyte distributions at hydrated and curved mineral interfaces with {\aa}ngstrom resolution over micron length scales. Layers exfoliate and restack abruptly and repeatedly over timescales that depend strongly on the counterion identity, demonstrating that the strong coupling between elastic, electrostatic and hydration forces in clays promote collective reorganization previously thought to be a feature only of active matter.

Whittaker, Michael L↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected and Learning Based Optimal Freight Management for Efficiency

The management of the future heterogenous fleet is a complex decision-making problem. The heterogenous fleet is emerging as decarbonization technologies are deployed by fleets toward lowering the freight operation emissions in Medium and Heavy-duty vehicles. Traditionally, in fleets characterized by a homogeneous Diesel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrain, the process of fleet planning and operational optimization unfolds sequentially without the necessity to account for powertrain and vehicle-specific characteristics during dispatch decisions. Fleets with trucks less than 5 years old tend to maintain stable vehicle efficiency with minimal operational reliability risks for fleet managers. However, the landscape changes with the incorporation of emerging powertrain technologies, which lack extensive operational data and service experiences. This includes technologies like hybrid, Electric, Fuel Cell, or alternative fuel ICE. Operational decisions for fleets featuring heterogeneous powertrain technologies and facing limited access to alternative fueling and charging stations become intricate, requiring careful consideration and optimization at each dispatch. The difference in efficiency characteristics of emerging technologies, their range limitations, and the restricted availability of charging/alternative fueling infrastructure, coupled with sensitivity to driving conditions (e.g., EV range reduction in low temperatures) and their impact on component aging (such as batteries), become pivotal factors influencing the reliable and efficient freight transportation. To make the path toward low emission freight transportation efficient and reliable, an AI-assisted fleet management software is developed in this project to help fleet managers in optimizing both adoption of emerging powertrain decarbonization, connected and automated technologies and also operating the fleet after such technologies are deployed as schematically. Freight transportation requirements are different depending on the cargos to be shipped, customer requirements and regions of operations. This further highlights the need for software and digital solutions to tailor deployment and operation of emerging powertrain, connectivity, and automation technologies toward the specific fleet operation requirements. The fleet management optimizer was also integrated with a model of the fleet to simulate the operation of the fleet over 1 year of the baseline fleet operation (250,000+ shipments) indicating the significance of day-to-day variations on emissions and energy consumption of a freight transportation fleet. The results demonstrate ≥20% improvement in freight efficiency in terms of WTW CO2 per ton-mile of cargo shipments while all fleet operation constraints are enforced, and the cost (CapEx and OpEx) is minimized.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

KIPM Detector Characterization in QUIET

Kinetic Inductance Phonon‑Mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microwave resonators that sense energy depositions in the substrate through a transient shift in their resonant frequency. In this work, I installed new devices in the QUIET cryogenic facility and used a network analyzer to drive them across a range of power levels. At each setting, I measured the transmitted signal and fit it to a simple notch‑filter model, allowing us to extract key performance metrics. Despite the increased noise at low power, the model consistently captured the resonance behavior. I first measured the resonance parameters as a function of RF drive power, then repeated the measurement across a range of temperatures to test whether the device behaved like an MKID. While the notch-filter fits captured the resonance reliably, the observed temperature dependence did not match the expected MKID signature — indicating that these first in-house fabricated chips are not yet functioning as true MKIDs. Overall, this reframes our work as a study of resonance parameter extraction and identification, pointing towards future iterations of device design and fabrication to get the true MKID response.

Savitala, Akash [U. Washington, Seattle (main); Fe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

The high-power helicon program at DIII-D: gearing up for first experiments

Helicon current drive, also called fast wave current drive in the lower hybrid range of frequencies, has long been regarded as a promising current drive tool for reactor grade plasmas. A newly installed MW-level system at DIII-D will be the first test of this technology in reactor-relevant plasmas, in the sense that full single-pass absorption is expected. A 30-module traveling wave antenna has been installed and optimized in-vessel in early 2020. The linear electromagnetic characteristics of the unloaded module array have been extensively tested both on the bench and in the vessel at instrumentation power levels. Excellent performance has been achieved, ~2% reflected power and ~1.5% dissipated power per module in air, in a 10 MHz band around 476 MHz. Stripline feeds on both ends of the antenna allow either co or counter current drive. The installation of a 1.2 MW klystron and associated high-power electronics was completed in Fall 2020. Commissioning of the antenna is ongoing. An important goal of this experiment is to validate the helicon current drive physics basis using an extensive set of new and upgraded diagnostics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic Modeling and Experimental Studies of Capacitively Coupled Macro- and Microplasmas at Microwave Frequencies

The effect of driving frequency in the range of 13.56 MHz to 73 MHz on electron energy distribution and electron heating modes in a 50 mTorr capacitively coupled argon plasma discharge is studied using 1D-3V particle-in-cell simulations. Calculated electron energy probability functions exhibit three distinct temperatures for low-, mid-, and high-energy electrons at all the studied driving frequencies. When compared to published experimental data, the calculated probability functions show a reasonable agreement for the energy range resolved in the measurements (about 2 eV to 10 eV). Discrepancies due to limitations in experimental energy resolution outside this range lead to differences between computational and experimental values of the electron number density determined from the distribution functions, and the predicted effective electron temperature is within 25 % of experimental values. The impedance of the discharge is interpreted in terms of a homogeneous equivalent circuit model and the driving frequency dependence of the inferred combined sheath thickness is found to obey a known, theoretically-derived, power law. The average power transferred from the field to the electrons (electron heating) is computed, and a region of negative heating near the sheath edge, particularly at higher driving frequencies, is identified. Analysis of the electron momentum equation shows that electron inertia, which on temporal averaging would be zero in a linear regime, is responsible for negative values of power deposition near the sheath edge at high driving frequencies due to the highly nonlinear behavior of the discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Frustration- and doping-induced magnetism in a Fermi–Hubbard simulator

Geometrical frustration in strongly correlated systems can give rise to a plethora of novel ordered states and intriguing magnetic phases, such as quantum spin liquids. Promising candidate materials for such phases can be described by the Hubbard model on an anisotropic triangular lattice, a paradigmatic model capturing the interplay between strong correlations and magnetic frustration. However, the fate of frustrated magnetism in the presence of itinerant dopants remains unclear, as well as its connection to the doped phases of the square Hubbard model. Here we investigate the local spin order of a Hubbard model with controllable frustration and doping, using ultracold fermions in anisotropic optical lattices continuously tunable from a square to a triangular geometry. At half-filling and strong interactions U/t ≈ 9, we observe at the single-site level how frustration reduces the range of magnetic correlations and drives a transition from a collinear Néel antiferromagnet to a short-range correlated 120° spiral phase. Away from half-filling, the triangular limit shows enhanced antiferromagnetic correlations on the hole-doped side and a reversal to ferromagnetic correlations at particle dopings above 20%, hinting at the role of kinetic magnetism in frustrated systems. Furthermore, this work paves the way towards exploring possible chiral ordered or superconducting phases in triangular lattices and realizing t–t' square lattice Hubbard models that may be essential to describe superconductivity in cuprate materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving the Freight Productivity of a Heavy-Duty, Battery Electric Truck by Intelligent Energy Management

This project aimed to enhance the range and reduce the operating costs of battery electric Class 8 trucks traveling over 250 miles daily. This was achieved through the development and implementation of an intelligent-Energy Management System (i-EMS) that leverages vehicle and operations data, physics-aware machine learning algorithms, and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) connectivity. The project hypothesized that advanced machine learning algorithms and real-time data analytics could significantly improve the energy efficiency and range of these trucks. Key objectives included developing a physics-aware machine learning algorithm, implementing an i-EMS with V2C connectivity and physics-aware spatial data analytics (PSDA), and validating the system’s effectiveness with fleet partners HEB Companies and Murphy Logistics. Extensive data collection from vehicle operations, including vehicle characteristics, road conditions, and payload, was conducted. A machine learning algorithm was developed to predict energy consumption and enable proactive decision-making. The i-EMS was implemented on two Volvo VNR BEVs, with operators receiving charging and routing recommendations. Charging stations were installed at depot locations in Texas and Minnesota, with an additional on-route charger in Minnesota. Significant findings included a 14% range improvement for Murphy Logistics on a highway-driving eco-route and a 22% range improvement for HEB Companies on a city-driving eco-route. The i-EMS utilized rule-based methods and physics-based algorithms to predict and reduce energy consumption, with real-time monitoring and analysis through V2C connectivity enabling proactive decision-making. The project demonstrated the feasibility and economic viability of battery electric Class 8 trucks for long-haul operations, showcasing the potential of physics-aware machine learning in optimizing energy management. The successful implementation of the i-EMS in real-world scenarios validates its practical application and effectiveness, paving the way for the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles in the freight transportation industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bandwidth Control and Symmetry Breaking in a Mott‐Hubbard Correlated Metal

Abstract In Mott materials strong electron correlation yields a spectrum of complex electronic structures. Recent synthesis advancements open realistic opportunities for harnessing Mott physics to design transformative devices. However, a major bottleneck in realizing such devices remains the lack of control over the electron correlation strength. This stems from the complexity of the electronic structure, which often veils the basic mechanisms underlying the correlation strength. This study presents control of the correlation strength by tuning the degree of orbital overlap using picometer‐scale lattice engineering. This study illustrates how bandwidth control and concurrent symmetry breaking can govern the electronic structure of a correlated SrVO 3 model system. This study shows how tensile and compressive biaxial strain oppositely affect the SrVO 3 in‐plane and out‐of‐plane orbital occupancy, resulting in the partial alleviation of the orbital degeneracy. The spectral weight redistribution under strain is derived and explained, which illustrates how high tensile strain drives the system toward a Mott insulating state. Implementation of such concepts can push correlated electron phenomena closer toward new solid‐state devices and circuits. These findings therefore pave the way for understanding and controlling electron correlation in a broad range of functional materials, driving this powerful resource for novel electronics closer toward practical realization.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Range Allosteric Communication Modulated by Active Site Mn(II) Coordination Drives Catalysis in Xanthobacter autotrophicus Acetone Carboxylase

Acetone carboxylase (AC) from Xanthobacter autotrophicus is a 360 KDa α2β2γ2 heterohexamer that catalyzes the ATP-dependent formation of phosphorylated acetone and bicarbonate intermediates that react at Mn(II) metal active sites to form acetoacetate. Structural models of X. autotrophicus AC (XaAC) with and without nucleotides reveal that the binding and phosphorylation of the two substrates occurs ~40 Å from the Mn(II) active sites where acetoacetate is formed. Based on the crystal structures, a significant conformational change was proposed to open and close a tunnel that facilitates the passage of reaction intermediates between the sites for nucleotide binding and phosphorylation of substrates and Mn(II) sites of acetoacetate formation. We have employed electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), kinetic assays, and hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) of poised ligand-bound states and site-specific amino acid variants to complete an in-depth analysis of Mn(II) coordination and allosteric communication throughout the catalytic cycle. In contrast with the established paradigms for carboxylation, our analyses of XaAC suggested a carboxylate shift that couples both local and long-range structural transitions. Shifts in the coordination mode of a single carboxylic acid residue (αE89) mediate both catalysis proximal to a Mn(II) center and communication with an ATP active site in a separate subunit of a 180 kDa α2β2γ2 complex at a distance of 40 Å. This work demonstrates the power of combining structural models from X-ray crystallography with solution-phase spectroscopy and biophysical techniques to elucidate functional aspects of a multi-subunit enzyme.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Discovery of tunable and soluble organic emitters for solid-state lasers with a self-driving laboratory

We have recently demonstrated the ability of using self-driving laboratories for AI-driven searches of organic emitters for solid-state lasing devices. Our past workflow featured solubility challenges for such large molecular moieties. In this next-generation study, we return to the drawing board to explore a family of com-pounds that are much solution processable and composed of a set of electronic cores that provide a broader color response. Out of 252 potential candidates,and with guidance from DFT calculations, we selectively perform a compre-hensive study exploring 51 fluorene-based A-B-A type organic laser oligomers, armed with our self-driving lab. The candidates range from simple hydrocarbon molecules to complex hetero atom-mixed molecules. As a result of this study, we highlight diketopyrrolopyrrole and benzodiazole derivatives for their largely red-shifted emissions. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of color change aris-ing from hetero atom permutation, fluorine addition, thiophene coupling, and a combination of fluorine addition and thiophene coupling. Amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) measurements in the solid state further corroborate the lasing potential of selected candidates, reinforcing their suitability for future device applications. The computational study with density functional theory confirms the experimental results.

fluorescence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Time dependent model for non-inductive ECH X-I current ramp-up for SHPD tokamak facility

Non-inductive (NI) plasma current start-up and ramp-up is an important research topic for spherical tokamak (ST) based reactors and fusion pilot plant (FPP). For a compact FPP, the OH flux availability is highly restricted due to its compact geometry. Efficient fundamental extraordinary mode (X-I) electron cyclotron heating (ECH) current start-up and ramp-up regime was identified for a reactor-like high toroidal magnetic field range which has more than a hundred times higher current drive efficiency compared to more conventional ECH methods for the relevant start-up temperature range. High current drive efficiency is possible due to the strong X-I fundamental ECH interaction only with unidirectional passing electrons constrained by the wave accessibility conditions. Here, we extend the X-I electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) investigation to a time dependent model to simulate the non-inductive current ramp-up to 10 MA for the Sustained High-Power Density (SHPD) facility. As the X-I ECCD driven current I EC rises, due to the back EMF driven negative current, the net plasma current Ip rises more slowly with the current resistive time scale. For tokamak confinement time (both L-mode and H-Mode) which tends to rise with I p , a positive feedback results and even with constant applied ECH power, T e0 , I EC , and I p can continue to rise to very high values. However, in a realistic situation, the T e0 rise should saturate due to a number of factors such as enhanced core radiation and increased power loss at high temperature. To simulate this effect, we adopt a maximum T e0 model which would limit the temperature rise to certain T e0 . With this model, we investigated the current ramp-up for various ECH power levels and the maximum T e0 of 15, 20, and 25 keV. We find that while the power required is reduced with increasing T e0 limit due to increased current drive efficiency, the time to reach 10 MA tends to go up due to the reduced plasma resistivity for the higher T e0 limit. We also find for a given Te0 limit, the time to reach 10 MA tends to be reduced by increasing the applied ECH power by over driving the current ramp-up where I EC is driven at significantly higher level than 10 MA. While the current ramp-up time may not be an issue for the steady-state reactor systems, if it is desirable to minimize the current ramp-up time, it is prudent to have a sufficient ECH power for current over-drive and have some T e0 limiting tools such as impurity seeding for enhanced radiation. In conclusion, a well-controlled NI ECH start-up also has a potential of improving the tokamak start-up reliability and avoid run-away electrons while the NI off-axis current drive could enhance MHD stability and plasma performance improvements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Study of Shock Formation Parameters With Drive Conditions in Magnetically Accelerated Plasma Flows

We present experimental data regarding the formation of high-energy-density shocks in magnetically accelerated plasma flows using pulsed power drivers. We quantify the flow velocity and temperature of the ablated plasma using optical Thomson scattering and gated emission imaging across two different generators. We show that, regardless of the drive parameters, the plasma flows show continuous acceleration over centimeter spatial scales, in line with trends in published simulation work. When stationary targets are placed in these supersonic flows, bow-shock formation is observed at all drive parameters in a range of materials. In the higher density flow generated on the 1-MA COBRA generator at Cornell University, heating of the upstream flow ahead of the shock is observed and quantified, which is not observed at the lower density flow on the 0.2-MA Bertha driver at UC San Diego. Here, when combined with previous work on the XP generator at Cornell, we can show that these three experimental setups allow control of the effect of radiation loss and upstream absorption on the formation of the bow shock.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale experimental study of creep-fatigue failure initiation in a 709 Stainless Steel alloy using high resolution digital image correlation. Final report

This report discusses the efforts made towards the multi-scale study of the creep-fatigue response of stainless steel 709. Multiple experimental techniques, including digital image correlation (DIC) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), were used in assessing the evolution of damage accumulation during fatigue, creep-fatigue, and thermomechanical fatigue of alloy 709. The role of microstructural features, hold times, temperature, and loading profiles were quantified and the interchangeability of temperature and time was investigated. Finally, a thermomechanical fatigue model was shown to predict well the failure of samples with varying loading profiles. Results indicate that strain accumulation in 709 steel happens primarily near grain boundaries (GBs) with the strains around GBs being inversely proportional to their measured residual burgers vector. Furthermore, hot-spots for strain accumulation were shown to be the locations of eventual microcrack nucleation. The introduction of hold times to the periodic loading cycle increases the damage accumulation rate and thus shortens the fatigue life of samples–this was true for both room temperature and high temperature. Thermomechanical cycling was shown to have little effect on the end life of samples, with the damage accumulation rate for in-phase and out-of-phase cycling being similar to isothermal fatigue. The interchangeability of time and temperature was shown to be possible within the studied load, time, and temperature ranges, since deformation mechanisms driving strain accumulation did not change with temperature (up to 650°C). The Neu-Sehitoglu thermomechanical fatigue model, with constants obtained from the literature and in part from our experimental results, was applied to predict failure of isothermal creep-fatigue samples. The main objectives of this work were to:(a) Perform high-resolution digital image correlation measurements (HiDIC) for alloy 709; (b) Quantify and assess damage accumulation at the microstructure under fatigue, TMF, and creep-fatigue conditions of 709; (c) Study of the role of hold times, i.e., adding a creep component, to: Room temperature cycling, High temperature cycling, Failure; (d) Study the mechanisms of thermomechanical fatigue in this alloy; (e) Investigate the existence of a time-temperature interchangeability criterion to aid in accelerated creep-fatigue testing; (f) Establish the validity of a combined creep-fatigue model for life prediction for 709. This report is structured with each subsequent section detailing the efforts, results, and conclusions related to each of the objectives described, mostly in chronological order.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗