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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗

DOE OSTI2025

Refining NEAMS MARVEL Reactor Model Accuracy

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in improving the fidelity of the multiphysics model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor developed in FY24. The multiphysics model firstly developed in FY24 leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApps and Transfer systems. The first single-physics model, that functions as the driver application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). The second single-physics model uses BISON to compute the solid temperature in the reactor. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. In this report we detail the following improvement and enhancements: • An updated mesh leveraging the latest feature in the reactor module (see Section 3.1.).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2019

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

POPSnet-SGP: A Pilot Aerosol Microphysics Network for Targeting Climate Model Uncertainty Interim Field Campaign Report

Aerosols mediate the radiative fluxes in clear and cloudy skies and dominate the uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Relatively dense networks of aerosol optical depth measurements have been used to effectively constrain simulated aerosol optical properties, but model diversity of aerosol microphysical properties is much larger (Mann et al. 2014, Myhre et al. 2009). A better understanding of aerosol microphysics is essential as they are the fundamental pieces of information required to convert aerosol emissions information to radiative and cloud-nucleating properties that drive radiative effects and forcing of climate. Model representation of aerosol microphysical properties has lagged in part due to their inherently greater spatial variability, but also due to a lack of available observations. This project – the Printed Optical Particle Spectrometer Network (POPSnet)-Southern Great Plains (SGP) Pilot – launched the first spatially dense network of aerosol size distribution measurements over an area the size of a global model grid cell and demonstrated its use in providing valuable information regarding the spatial variability of aerosol microphysical properties and its drivers for improving model constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Estimating the Deep Space Network modification costs to prepare for future space missions by using major cost drivers

This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers and estimates both the total cost and the annual costs of a similar future space mission. The model is derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Estimates derived from the model are tested against actual cost data for two independent missions, Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS).

Remer, Donald S.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Launch Architecture Impact on Ascent Abort and Crew Survival

A study was performed to assess the effect of booster configuration on the ascent abort process. A generic abort event sequence was created and booster related risk drivers were identified. Three model boosters were considered in light of the risk drivers: a solid rocket motor configuration, a side mount combination solid and liquid configuration, and a stacked liquid configuration. The primary risk drivers included explosive fireball, overpressure, and fragment effects and booster-crew module re-contact. Risk drivers that were not specifically booster dependent were not addressed. The solid rocket configuration had the most benign influence on an abort while the side mount architecture provided the most challenging abort environment.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Models Required to Mitigate Impacts of Space Weather on Space Systems

This viewgraph presentation attempts to develop a model of factors which need to be considered in the design and construction of spacecraft to lessen the effects of space weather on these vehicles. Topics considered include: space environments and effects, radiation environments and effects, space weather drivers, space weather models, climate models, solar proton activity and mission design for the GOES mission. The authors conclude that space environment models need to address issues from mission planning through operations and a program to develop and validate authoritative space environment models for application to spacecraft design does not exist at this time.

Barth, Janet L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

Mertens, Christoper J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying microbial drivers in biological phenotypes with a Bayesian network regression model

Abstract In Bayesian Network Regression models, networks are considered the predictors of continuous responses. These models have been successfully used in brain research to identify regions in the brain that are associated with specific human traits, yet their potential to elucidate microbial drivers in biological phenotypes for microbiome research remains unknown. In particular, microbial networks are challenging due to their high dimension and high sparsity compared to brain networks. Furthermore, unlike in brain connectome research, in microbiome research, it is usually expected that the presence of microbes has an effect on the response (main effects), not just the interactions. Here, we develop the first thorough investigation of whether Bayesian Network Regression models are suitable for microbial datasets on a variety of synthetic and real data under diverse biological scenarios. We test whether the Bayesian Network Regression model that accounts only for interaction effects (edges in the network) is able to identify key drivers (microbes) in phenotypic variability. We show that this model is indeed able to identify influential nodes and edges in the microbial networks that drive changes in the phenotype for most biological settings, but we also identify scenarios where this method performs poorly which allows us to provide practical advice for domain scientists aiming to apply these tools to their datasets. BNR models provide a framework for microbiome researchers to identify connections between microbes and measured phenotypes. We allow the use of this statistical model by providing an easy‐to‐use implementation which is publicly available Julia package at https://github.com/solislemuslab/BayesianNetworkRegression.jl .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Manual control of unstable systems

Under certain operational regimes and failure modes, air and ground vehicles can present the human operator with a dynamically unstable or divergent control task. Research conducted over the last two decades has explored the ability of the human operator to control unstable systems under a variety of circumstances. Past research is reviewed and human operator control capabilities are summarized. A current example of automobile directional control under rear brake lockup conditions is also reviewed. A control system model analysis of the driver's steering control task is summarized, based on a generic driver/vehicle model presented at last year's Annual Manual. Results from closed course braking tests are presented that confirm the difficulty the average driver has in controlling the unstable directional dynamics arising from rear wheel lockup.

Allen, R. W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimate long-term impact on battery degradation by considering electric vehicle real-world end-use factors

Many estimates of battery capacity degradation are based on accelerated lab tests that involve charge-discharge cycles or rely on data or electrochemical modeling. These methods are reasonable for technology benchmarking but rarely consider real-world end-use factors. To address this issue, this study develops the Battery Run-down under Electric Vehicle Operation (BREVO) model. It links the driver's travel pattern to physics-based battery degradation and powertrain energy consumption models. The model simulates the impacts of charging behavior, charging rate, driving patterns, and multiple energy management modules on battery capacity degradation. It finds that, over a 10-year timespan, firstly, for a random driver situated in the New England area, daily direct-current fast charging (60 kW) could lead to up to 22% less battery capacity when compared to daily Level-1 charging (1.8 kW). Second, the battery thermal management system can delay battery degradation by approximately 0.5% in the New England area. Third, warmer ambient temperatures enhance BEV battery usage. The model indicates that the battery capacity in the Los Angeles area is 6% higher than that in the New England area. The BREVO model provides crucial information for consumers and BEV manufacturers on range anxiety, BEV battery design, and decision support of battery warranty.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of a modeling toolkit for the design of building electrical distribution systems

The deployment of building equipment (e.g., lighting, security) and miscellaneous electrical loads that fundamentally require DC power for operation is increasing. Powering these DC loads has traditionally required an AC/DC converter, but the installation of photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems that primarily produce DC power eliminates the need for AC/DC converters at each end-device. However, analyzing system energy efficiency and cost for different electrical distribution architectures can be challenging as software tools that support this are not readily available. This paper presents preliminary results from a laboratory verification of the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit that was developed to address this gap. Three different eight-luminaire lighting systems comprised of market-available products were designed and modeled: one that used traditional AC distribution, a second that used a hybrid AC -to- centralized DC electrical distribution architecture, and a third that used a hybrid AC -to- distributed DC architecture. Notably, AC/DC conversions are required in all three systems. BEEAM models for LED drivers as well as Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) switches were created using laboratory characterization data. The lighting systems were simulated in Modelica, and the results were compared with each other and physics-based expectations. Simulation results show that PoE system energy efficiency is highly dependent on both device specification (e.g., LED driver and PoE switch efficiency) and system architecture (e.g., PoE switch loading) choices, as expected. For the products and system architectures selected for this study, the two DC systems were found to be less efficient than the AC system over the course of typical operation. In future work, simulation results will be compared with laboratory measurements to validate the usefulness of this software for design, and lighting systems with integrated PV and battery energy storage will be simulated to quantify the energy performance improvements that result from the elimination of some AC/DC converters.

Waghale, Anay S.↗