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A mathematical model of post-instability in fluid mechanics

Postinstability of fluids is eliminated in numerical models by introducing multivalued velocity fields after discarding the principle of impenetrability. Smooth functions are shown to be incapable of keeping the derivatives from going towards infinity when iterating solutions for the governing equations such as those defined by Navier-Stokes. Enlarging the class of functions is shown to be necessary to eliminate the appearance of imaginary characteristic roots in the systems of arbitrary partial differential equations, a condition which leads to physically impossible motions. The enlarging is demonstrated to be achievable by allowing several individual particles with different velocities to appear at the same point of space, and the subsequent multivaluedness of the solutions is purely a mathematical concern, rather than one of actual physical existence. Applications are provided for an inviscid fluid and for turbulence.

Zak, M. A.↗

Adaptive grid generation

The fundamental principles of adaptive grid generation for the numerical analysis of physical phenomena described by systems of partial differential equations are examined in an analytical review. Topics addressed include weight functions, equidistribution in one dimension, the specification of coefficients in the linear weight, the attraction to a given grid on a curve, evolutionary forces, and metric notation. Consideration is given to curve-by-curve methods, finite-volume methods, variational methods, and temporal aspects.

Eiseman, Peter R.↗

Equidistribution of energy and other quantities in oscillating systems

Energy of a high harmonic standing wave tends to be distributed equally over the whole wave even in a stratified medium where the wave's peak amplitude can be much larger near the upper boundary than the lower one. This fact is generalized to the many diverse physical problems which solve second-order differential equations of Sturm-Liouville type. For any such solution y(z) whose sign fluctuates along the z-axis, quantities are found which have the same value between any two neighboring zeros of y. One of the equidistributed quantities for an oscillating fluid sphere is similar to kinetic energy but is identical only in limiting cases. The acoustic midpoint of a cavity can be a unique place where some nonlinear perturbations have extra strength. This may apply to the puzzling solar phenomenon called supergranulation.

Wolff, Charles L.↗

On the Importance of the Dynamics of Discretizations

It has been realized recently that the discrete maps resulting from numerical discretizations of differential equations can possess asymptotic dynamical behavior quite different from that of the original systems. This is the case not only for systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) but in a more complicated manner for Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) used to model complex physics. The impact of the modified dynamics may be mild and even not observed for some numerical methods. For other classes of discretizations the impact may be pronounced, but not always obvious depending on the nonlinear model equations, the time steps, the grid spacings and the initial conditions. Non-convergence or convergence to periodic solutions might be easily recognizable but convergence to incorrect but plausible solutions may not be so obvious - even for discretized parameters within the linearized stability constraint. Based on our past four years of research, we will illustrate some of the pathology of the dynamics of discretizations, its possible impact and the usage of these schemes for model nonlinear ODEs, convection-diffusion equations and grid adaptations.

Sweby, Peter K.↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This talk describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Reliability of Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This work describes some of the procedure to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Flexible Models for Solar Sail Control

Solar sails employ a unique form of propulsion, gaining momentum from incident and reflected photons. However, the momentum transferred by an individual photon is extremely small. Consequently, a solar sail must have an extremely large surface area and also be extremely light. The flexibility of the sail then must be considered when designing or evaluating control laws. In this paper, solar sail flexibility and its influence on control effectiveness is considered using idealized two-dimensional models to represent physical phenomena rather than a specific design. Differential equations of motion are derived for a distributed parameter model of a flexible solar sail idealized as a rotating central hub with two opposing flexible booms. This idealization is appropriate for solar sail designs in which the vibrational modes of the sail and supporting booms move together allowing the sail mass to be distributed along the booms in the idealized model. A reduced analytical model of the flexible response is considered. Linear feedback torque control is applied at the central hub. Two translational disturbances and a torque disturbance also act at the central hub representing the equivalent effect of deflecting sail shape about a reference line. Transient simulations explore different control designs and their effectiveness for controlling orientation, for reducing flexible motion and for disturbance rejection. A second model also is developed as a two-dimensional "pathfinder" model to calculate the effect of solar sail shape on the resultant thrust, in-plane force and torque at the hub. The analysis is then extended to larger models using the finite element method. The finite element modeling approach is verified by comparing results from a two-dimensional finite element model with those from the analytical model. The utility of the finite element modeling approach for this application is then illustrated through examples based on a full finite element model.

Weaver Smith, Suzanne↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations.

Yee, H. C.↗

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Model of early lunar differentiation.

Suggestion that Fe-S (fescon) segregation plays a major role in the early chemical and physical history not only of the moon but of other terrestrial planets as well. A model of early lunar differentiation is described which can be tested in future lunar missions. Seismic studies bearing on the interior structure of the moon should in principle detect the Fe-S layer and the fescons.

Murthy, V. R.↗

Differential Resonant Ring YIG Tuned Oscillator

A differential SiGe oscillator circuit uses a resonant ring-oscillator topology in order to electronically tune the oscillator over multi-octave bandwidths. The oscillator s tuning is extremely linear, because the oscillator s frequency depends on the magnetic tuning of a YIG sphere, whose resonant frequency is equal to a fundamental constant times the DC magnetic field. This extremely simple circuit topology uses two coupling loops connecting a differential pair of SiGe bipolar transistors into a feedback configuration using a YIG tuned filter creating a closed-loop ring oscillator. SiGe device technology is used for this oscillator in order to keep the transistor s 1/f noise to an absolute minimum in order to achieve minimum RF phase noise. The single-end resonant ring oscillator currently has an advantage in fewer parts, but when the oscillation frequency is greater than 16 GHz, the package s parasitic behavior couples energy to the sphere and causes holes and poor phase noise performance. This is because the coupling to the YIG is extremely low, so that the oscillator operates at near the unloaded Q. With the differential resonant ring oscillator, the oscillation currents are just in the YIG coupling mechanisms. The phase noise is even better, and the physical size can be reduced to permit monolithic microwave integrated circuit oscillators. This invention is a YIG tuned oscillator circuit making use of a differential topology to simultaneously achieve an extremely broadband electronic tuning range and ultra-low phase noise. As a natural result of its differential circuit topology, all reactive elements, such as tuning stubs, which limit tuning bandwidth by contributing excessive open loop phase shift, have been eliminated. The differential oscillator s open-loop phase shift is associated with completely non-dispersive circuit elements such as the physical angle of the coupling loops, a differential loop crossover, and the high-frequency phase shift of the n-p-n transistors. At the input of the oscillator s feedback loop is a pair of differentially connected n-p-n SiGe transistors that provides extremely high gain, and because they are bulk-effect devices, extremely low 1/f noise (leading to ultralow RF phase noise). The 1/f corner frequency for n-p-n SiGe transistors is approximately 500 Hz. The RF energy from the transistor s collector output is connected directly to the top-coupling loop (the excitation loop) of a single-sphere YIG tuned filter. A uniform magnetic field to bias the YIG must be at a right angle to any vector associated with an RF current in a coupling loop in order for the precession to interact with the RF currents.

Parrott, Ronald A.↗