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At least 91 records · Page 5

Coupling of the radiative, convective, and surface fluxes over the equatorial Pacific

An idealized energy-balance model for a closed tropical circulation is first presented to illustrate the coupling between the net tropospheric cooling, the surface fluxes, and the mean subsidence away from the precipitation zones. Then a one-dimensional diagnostic model and a radiation model with boundary layer clouds are combined to explore this coupling for a specific region, using mean sounding data over the tropical Pacific. The radiatively driven subsidence rate at the top of the convective boundary layer is approximately 35 mb/day and is largely independent of boundary layer cloud fraction. The sensitivity of the corresponding convective heat flux profiles to the mass divergence profile and cloud fraction within the boundary layer is explored. Reasonable assumptions give realistic surface sensible and latent heat fluxes for this region of approximately 10 and 130 W/sq m. The paper illustrates the important background climatic control of the radiation field on the tropical surface fluxes.

Ridgway, W.↗

Observations of the Thermal Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Information on the thermal structure of the Martian atmosphere has been obtained using several different techniques, including in situ sounding from decent probes, radio occultations and infrared thermal emission measurements from orbiters, and earth based full-disk microwave measurements. Knowledge of the 3- dimensional atmospheric temperature field and its temporal variation provides an important observational approach to the study of the dynamics of the atmosphere. Comparison of the observed thermal structure with results from a Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) can be used to refine the model and provide greater insight into the physical processes controlling the dynamics of the atmosphere. Direct assimilation of the temperature observations into an MGCM can also be used to address similar goals. In addition, relatively simple diagnostic models can be applied to the data to directly obtain information on winds and other meteorological properties of the atmosphere. In this overview, we concentrate primarily on the structure retrieved from thermal emission measurements. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Conrath, B. J.↗

Snow in the Changing Sea-Ice Systems

Snow is the most reflective, and also the most insulative, natural material on Earth. Consequently, it is an integral part of the sea-ice and climate systems. However, the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of snow pose challenges for observing, understanding and modelling those systems under anthropogenic warming. Here, we survey the snow-ice system, then provide recommendations for overcoming present challenges. These include: collecting process-oriented observations for model diagnostics and understanding snow-ice feedbacks, and improving our remote sensing capabilities of snow for monitoring large-scale changes in snow on sea ice. These efforts could be achieved through stronger coordination between the observational, remote sensing and modelling communities, and would pay dividends through distinct improvements in predictions of polar environments.

Snow↗

Deepti: Deep-Learning-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation System

Tropical cyclones are one of the costliest natural disasters globally because of the wide range of associated hazards. Thus, an accurate diagnostic model for tropical cyclone intensity can save lives and property. There are a number of existing techniques and approaches that diagnose tropical cyclone wind speed using satellite data at a given time with varying success. This paper presents a deep learning-based objective, diagnostic estimate of tropical cyclone intensity from infrared satellite imagery with 13.24 kt Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). In addition, a visualization portal in a production system is presented that displays deep learning output and contextual information for end users, one of the first of its kind.

Manil Maskey↗

New Diagnostic, Launch and Model Control Techniques in the NASA Ames HFFAF Ballistic Range

This report presents new diagnostic, launch and model control techniques used in the NASA Ames HFFAF ballistic range. High speed movies were used to view the sabot separation process and the passage of the model through the model splap paper. Cavities in the rear of the sabot, to catch the muzzle blast of the gun, were used to control sabot finger separation angles and distances. Inserts were installed in the powder chamber to greatly reduce the ullage volume (empty space) in the chamber. This resulted in much more complete and repeatable combustion of the powder and hence, in much more repeatable muzzle velocities. Sheets of paper or cardstock, impacting one half of the model, were used to control the amplitudes of the model pitch oscillations.

Bogdanoff, David W.↗

Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models

Water balance considerations at the soil surface lead to an equation that relates the autocorrelation of soil moisture in climate models to (1) seasonality in the statistics of the atmospheric forcing, (2) the variation of evaporation with soil moisture, (3) the variation of runoff with soil moisture, and (4) persistence in the atmospheric forcing, as perhaps induced by land atmosphere feedback. Geographical variations in the relative strengths of these factors, which can be established through analysis of model diagnostics and which can be validated to a certain extent against observations, lead to geographical variations in simulated soil moisture memory and thus, in effect, to geographical variations in seasonal precipitation predictability associated with soil moisture. The use of the equation to characterize controls on soil moisture memory is demonstrated with data from the modeling system of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.

Koster, Randal D.↗

LossLens: Diagnostics for Machine Learning Through Loss Landscape Visual Analytics

Modern machine learning often relies on optimizing a neural network's parameters using a loss function to learn complex features. Beyond training, examining the loss function with respect to a network's parameters (i.e., as a loss landscape) can reveal insights into the architecture and learning process. While the local structure of the loss landscape surrounding an individual solution can be characterized using a variety of approaches, the global structure of a loss landscape, which includes potentially many local minima corresponding to different solutions, remains far more difficult to conceptualize and visualize. To address this difficulty, we introduce LossLens, a visual analytics framework that explores loss landscapes at multiple scales. LossLens integrates metrics from global and local scales into a comprehensive visual representation, enhancing model diagnostics. Here we demonstrate LossLens through two case studies: visualizing how residual connections influence a ResNet-20, and visualizing how physical parameters influence a physics-informed neural network (PINN) solving a simple convection problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating soil wetness using satellite data

Improved estimates of soil wetness were obtained using observations from both the NIMBUS-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). SMMR 66 GHz frequency, horizontal polarization, brightness temperature T(BH) was first correlated with soil wetness, as computed using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model, for a number of SMMR ground resolution areas involving a fairly wide range of vegetation densities. The API generally accounted for more than 70 percent of the observed temporal variability in T(BH), with linear correlations being significant at the 1 percent level. The regression slope of T(BH) versus API correlated well, at the 1 percent level, with a vegetation index derived from AVHRR visible and near-infrared observations. The regression intercept was found to correlate less satisfactorily, but was significant at the 5 percent level. These linear regression results were used to develop a diagnostic model for soil wetness using SMMR and AVHRR data only.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗

A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASA's Space Launch System

The development of the Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle requires cross discipline teams with extensive knowledge of launch vehicle subsystems, information theory, and autonomous algorithms dealing with all operations from pre-launch through on orbit operations. The characteristics of these systems must be matched with the autonomous algorithm monitoring and mitigation capabilities for accurate control and response to abnormal conditions throughout all vehicle mission flight phases, including precipitating safing actions and crew aborts. This presents a large complex systems engineering challenge being addressed in part by focusing on the specific subsystems handling of off-nominal mission and fault tolerance. Using traditional model based system and software engineering design principles from the Unified Modeling Language (UML), the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms are crafted and vetted in specialized Integrated Development Teams composed of multiple development disciplines. NASA also has formed an M&FM team for addressing fault management early in the development lifecycle. This team has developed a dedicated Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) that integrates specific M&FM algorithms, specialized nominal and off-nominal test cases, and vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle subsystem models. The flexibility of VMET enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models. The intent is to validate the algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to flight software test processes. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts into software through requirements and test processes. Risk reduction is addressed by working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, the Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission and Loss of Crew probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and detection and responses that can be tested in VMET and confirm that responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - ARINC 653 partitioned OS, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM. The plan for VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by Flight Software. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure the effectiveness of M&FM algorithms performance in the FSW development and test processes. This paper is outlined in a systematic fashion analogous to a lifecycle process flow for engineering development of algorithms into software and testing. Section I describes the NASA SLS M&FM context, presenting the current infrastructure, leading principles, methods, and participants. Section II defines the testing philosophy of the M&FM algorithms as related to VMET followed by section III, which presents the modeling methods of the algorithms to be tested and validated in VMET. Its details are then further presented in section IV followed by Section V presenting integration, test status, and state analysis. Finally, section VI addresses the summary and forward directions followed by the appendices presenting relevant information on terminology and documentation.

Trevino, Luis↗

A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASA's Space Launch System

The engineering development of the new Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle requires cross discipline teams with extensive knowledge of launch vehicle subsystems, information theory, and autonomous algorithms dealing with all operations from pre-launch through on orbit operations. The characteristics of these spacecraft systems must be matched with the autonomous algorithm monitoring and mitigation capabilities for accurate control and response to abnormal conditions throughout all vehicle mission flight phases, including precipitating safing actions and crew aborts. This presents a large and complex system engineering challenge, which is being addressed in part by focusing on the specific subsystems involved in the handling of off-nominal mission and fault tolerance with response management. Using traditional model based system and software engineering design principles from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the vehicle are crafted and vetted in specialized Integrated Development Teams (IDTs) composed of multiple development disciplines such as Systems Engineering (SE), Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and the major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), and liquid engines. These model based algorithms and their development lifecycle from inception through Flight Software certification are an important focus of this development effort to further insure reliable detection and response to off-nominal vehicle states during all phases of vehicle operation from pre-launch through end of flight. NASA formed a dedicated M&FM team for addressing fault management early in the development lifecycle for the SLS initiative. As part of the development of the M&FM capabilities, this team has developed a dedicated testbed that integrates specific M&FM algorithms, specialized nominal and off-nominal test cases, and vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle subsystem models. Additionally, the team has developed processes for implementing and validating these algorithms for concept validation and risk reduction for the SLS program. The flexibility of the Vehicle Management End-to-end Testbed (VMET) enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the developed algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models such as MPS. The intent of VMET is to validate the M&FM algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the target vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to the flight software development infrastructure and its related testing entities. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts into software through requirements and test cases into flight software compounded with potential human errors throughout the development lifecycle. Risk reduction is addressed by the M&FM analysis group working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, the Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission and Loss of Crew probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and associated detection and responses that can be tested in VMET to ensure that failures can be detected, and confirm that responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - ARINC 653 partitioned OS, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM such as telemetry packing and processing. The baseline plan for use of VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by Flight Software. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure the effectiveness of M&FM algorithms performance in the FSW development and test processes.

Trevino, Luis↗

Pattern classifier for health monitoring of helicopter gearboxes

The application of a newly developed diagnostic method to a helicopter gearbox is demonstrated. This method is a pattern classifier which uses a multi-valued influence matrix (MVIM) as its diagnostic model. The method benefits from a fast learning algorithm, based on error feedback, that enables it to estimate gearbox health from a small set of measurement-fault data. The MVIM method can also assess the diagnosability of the system and variability of the fault signatures as the basis to improve fault signatures. This method was tested on vibration signals reflecting various faults in an OH-58A main rotor transmission gearbox. The vibration signals were then digitized and processed by a vibration signal analyzer to enhance and extract various features of the vibration data. The parameters obtained from this analyzer were utilized to train and test the performance of the MVIM method in both detection and diagnosis. The results indicate that the MVIM method provided excellent detection results when the full range of faults effects on the measurements were included in training, and it had a correct diagnostic rate of 95 percent when the faults were included in training.

Chin, Hsinyung↗

A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASAs Space Launch System

The engineering development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS) requires cross discipline teams with extensive knowledge of launch vehicle subsystems, information theory, and autonomous algorithms dealing with all operations from pre-launch through on orbit operations. The nominal and off-nominal characteristics of SLS's elements and subsystems must be understood and matched with the autonomous algorithm monitoring and mitigation capabilities for accurate control and response to abnormal conditions throughout all vehicle mission flight phases, including precipitating safing actions and crew aborts. This presents a large and complex systems engineering challenge, which is being addressed in part by focusing on the specific subsystems involved in the handling of off-nominal mission and fault tolerance with response management. Using traditional model-based system and software engineering design principles from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the vehicle are crafted and vetted in Integrated Development Teams (IDTs) composed of multiple development disciplines such as Systems Engineering (SE), Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and the major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), and liquid engines. These model-based algorithms and their development lifecycle from inception through FSW certification are an important focus of SLS's development effort to further ensure reliable detection and response to off-nominal vehicle states during all phases of vehicle operation from pre-launch through end of flight. To test and validate these M&FM algorithms a dedicated test-bed was developed for full Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing (VMET). For addressing fault management (FM) early in the development lifecycle for the SLS program, NASA formed the M&FM team as part of the Integrated Systems Health Management and Automation Branch under the Spacecraft Vehicle Systems Department at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). To support the development of the FM algorithms, the VMET developed by the M&FM team provides the ability to integrate the algorithms, perform test cases, and integrate vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle (LV) subsystem models. Additionally, the team has developed processes for implementing and validating the M&FM algorithms for concept validation and risk reduction. The flexibility of the VMET capabilities enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the developed algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models such as MPS, GNC, and others. One of the principal functions of VMET is to validate the M&FM algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the target vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to the flight software test and validation processes. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts from requirements and test cases into flight software compounded with potential human errors throughout the development and regression testing lifecycle. Risk reduction is addressed by the M&FM group but in particular by the Analysis Team working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and associated detection and responses to be tested in VMET to ensure reliable failure detection, and confirm responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - the ARINC 6535-partitioned Operating System, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM such as telemetry packing and processing. The baseline plan for use of VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by FSW. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure their effectiveness and performance in the exterior FSW development and test processes. This paper is outlined in a systematic fashion analogous to a lifecycle process flow for engineering development of algorithms into software and testing. Section I describes the NASA SLS M&FM context, presenting the current infrastructure, leading principles, methods, and participants. Section II defines the testing philosophy of the M&FM algorithms as related to VMET followed by section III, which presents the modeling methods of the algorithms to be tested and validated in VMET. Its details are then further presented in section IV followed by Section V presenting integration, test status, and state analysis. Finally, section VI addresses the summary and forward directions followed by the appendices presenting relevant information on terminology and documentation.

Trevino, Luis↗

A survey of thermocouple anomalies: mechanisms, interpretation, and mitigation

Thermocouples (TCs) are a critical diagnostic sensor for high enthalpy environments including thermal protection systems (TPS) for atmospheric re-entry, hypersonic wind tunnels, and arc jet test facilities. They are used for both evaluating facility environmental conditions (enthalpy, heat flux) as well as for measuring in-situ material thermal response under test conditions (thermal conductivity, heat capacity, B’, etc.). Consequently, accurate TC measurements are fundamental for both material and facility verification and validation (V&V). However, a number of TC anomalies have been observed in both ground tests and flight instrumentation. These anomalies are caused via various coupling mechanisms: electrostatic gradients, temperature-dependent electrical shorts, radio pickup, magnetic induction, and pressure-dependent leaks. All of these mechanisms can, if unaddressed, result in obviously compromised results or worse, non-physical measurements which appear reasonable. This work will survey known anomaly mechanisms and discuss ongoing efforts to quantify and mitigate anomaly mechanisms including anomaly modeling, diagnostics, and new TC designs/development.

thermocouple anomalies↗

A Survey of Thermocouple Anomalies: Mechanisms, Interpretation, and Mitigation

Thermocouples (TCs) are a critical diagnostic sensor for high enthalpy environments including thermal protection systems (TPS) for atmospheric re-entry, hypersonic wind tunnels, and arc jet test facilities. They are used for both evaluating facility environmental conditions (enthalpy, heat flux) as well as for measuring in-situ material thermal response under test conditions (thermal conductivity, heat capacity, B’, etc.). Consequently, accurate TC measurements are fundamental for both material and facility verification and validation (V&V). However, a number of TC anomalies have been observed in both ground tests and flight instrumentation. These anomalies are caused via various coupling mechanisms: electrostatic gradients, temperature-dependent electrical shorts, radio pickup, magnetic induction, and pressure-dependent leaks. All of these mechanisms can, if unaddressed, result in obviously compromised results or worse, non-physical measurements which appear reasonable. This work will survey known anomaly mechanisms and discuss ongoing efforts to quantify and mitigate anomaly mechanisms including anomaly modeling, diagnostics, and new TC designs/development.

Thermocouple Anomalies↗

Accurate Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Climate Models Requires High Frequency Data Output

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centred climate anomalies. Local L-A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L-A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning, and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth, development, and entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team on Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L-A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land-atmosphere interactions span time scales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability of behavioural regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyse, and better understand L-A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behaviour. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant time scales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L-A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

Kirsten L. Findell↗

Precipitation Recycling in the NASA GEOS Data Assimilation System

Analysis of precipitation recycling can improve the understanding of regional hydrologic anomalies, especially their evolution and maintenance. Diagnostic models of the recycling of precipitation and are applied to 15 years of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). Recycled precipitation is defined as the fraction of precipitation within a given region that originated as surface evaporation from the same region. The focus of the present work is on the interannual variability of the central United States hydrologic cycle and precipitation recycling. The extreme years of 1988 (drought) and 1993 (flood) are compared with the 15 year base period mean annual cycle. The results indicate that recycling ratio (the amount of precipitation with a local source relative to the total precipitation) is greater in 1988 than both the base period mean and the 1993 season (with 1993 recycling ratio less than the mean). On the other hand, both the summers of 1988 and 1993 show less total recycled precipitation than the mean. The results also show that precipitation recycling may have been more important in the spring of 1993, when the region was primed for flooding, than the summer, when the sever flooding occurred. The diagnostic approaches to precipitation recycling suffer from some weaknesses. Numerical simulations and assimilation using passive tracers have the potential to provide more accurate calculations of precipitation recycling and the remote sources of water. This ability is being incorporated into the latest GEOS data assimilation system, and some preliminary results will be presented.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Searching for a Pulse: Evaluating the Use of Rapid DC Pulses for Diagnosing Battery Health, State-of-Charge, and Safety

Rapid electrochemical diagnostics, like DC pulse sequences or electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, are known to be useful for capacity prediction. However, it is unclear how previous results will map to different cell types and use cases and whether rapid diagnostics are useful for remaining useful life prediction or for detecting potential safety issues. To that end, we have collected a data set with ∼50,000 DC pulse measurements from four types of commercial lithium-ion batteries to enable training of state-of-charge, health, and safety diagnostic models via machine-learning. We demonstrate that 120-second DC pulse sequences can be used to predict capacity with 2%–9% average error, which can separate high- from low-capacity cells with only a 0.3% false positive rate but is not accurate enough to estimate remaining useful life. We also find that no safety related targets can be accurately predicted, highlighting the critical need for other non-invasive methods to diagnose battery safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗