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Spacecraft Modeling, Attitude Determination, and Control: Quaternion-Based Approach

Spacecraft attitude determination and control is an important part of a spacecraft to achieve its designed mission. As of today, many spacecrafts have been successfully launched, and most of them have performed well as they were designed. Many research papers have been published to address the attitude determination and control design problems. Several text books are available for students to learn the technology and for engineers to use as references. The most popular spacecraft models for attitude determination algorithms and control design methods are the Euler angle models and the quaternion models . The Euler angle models have been proved very efficient as the linearized models are controllable, and all standard linear control system design methods are directly applicable. The drawbacks related to the Euler angle methods are (a) the designs based on linearized models may not globally stabilize the original nonlinear spacecraft, i.e., the design may not work when the attitude of the spacecraft is far away from the point where the linearization is performed; (b) the models depend on the rotational sequences, this can be error prone if several teams work on the same project and they use different rotational sequences; (c) for any rotational sequence, there is a singular point where the model is not applicable; and (d) since most attitude determination methods use quaternion to represent the spacecraft attitude, there is a need to transform quaternion into Euler angles. On the other hand, for quaternion models, people have found controllers that can globally stabilize nonlinear spacecraft systems; the models do not depend on rotational sequences and they have no singular point; and the quaternion is provided by attitude determination system and ready to use. The main problem with the quaternion model based control system design is that the linearized quaternion model is not controllable. Therefore, most published design methods heavily rely on Lyapunov functions for the nonlinear spacecraft system. But there is no systematic way to obtain a desired Lyapunov functions. Moreover, the Lyapunov function based designs focus on the closed-loop system stability but pay little attention to the closed-loop system performance. In a series of papers, the author proposed some reduced quaternion models which lead to some controllable linearized spacecraft models. Therefore, all standard linear system theory can be directly applied to analyze and design the spacecraft control systems. We showed that, in some cases, the designed control system is not only optimal for the linearized system, but also globally stabilize the original nonlinear system . Clearly, the reduced quaternion models do not depend on rotational sequences. Due to the special structure of the linearized spacecraft model, some most important design methods, such as LQR design and robust pole assignment design are very simple, enjoy the analytical solutions for some problems, have direct connection to the performance measures, such as settling time, rising time , and percentage of overshoot . All these features are attractive for high quality control system designs. The idea mentioned above is then extended to more spacecraft control problems using specific actuators such as magnetic torque bars and control momentum gyroscopes. These types of actuators may not provide exactly desired torques. Most existing methods use different conversions to get approximate solutions, meaning that these actuators may generate a torque close to but not equal to the desired one. Using the reduced quaternion models that incorporate the actuators into the system model, the control inputs are not torques but the operational parameters. The main benefit of this idea is that the control actions are not approximate but accurate. As all actuators have their operational limit, design with input constraints are also considered in this book by using recently developed interior-point optimization techniques. This book grows up from my research on the spacecraft attitude determination and control design methods in more than a decade which is focused on using reduced quaternion models because of their merits stated above. The book provides all necessary background materials on orbital dynamics, rotations and quaternion, frequently used reference frames, transformations between reference frames, space environment and disturbance torques, ephemeris astronomical vector calculations and measurement instruments, spacecraft control actuators and their models, so that the readers will get a global picture and can apply all these information into the spacecraft system modeling, attitude determination, and spacecraft control system designs, which is the main purpose of this book. This book is different from existing books in that we focus on quaternion based spacecraft control system designs and we consider only attitude control system design related problems, from spacecraft modeling, to attitude determination and estimation, to control system design method selection, to control algorithm development, and to the simulation of the control system designs. Moreover, this book addresses different attitude control tasks in the spacecraft life cycle, including spacecraft maneuver, orbit raising, attitude control, and rendezvous. Finally, this book emphasizes the state space design methods rather than the classical frequency design methods.

Attitude determination and control↗

General Method for Determining Redox Potentials without Electrolyte

A novel method to determine redox potentials without electrolyte is presented here. The method is based on a new ability to determine the dissociation constant, $K°_d$, for ion pairs formed between any radical anion and any inert electrolyte counterion. These dissociation constants can be used to determine relative shifts of redox potential as a function of electrolyte concentration, connecting referenced potentials determined with electrochemistry (with 0.1 M electrolyte) to electrolyte-free values. Pulse radiolysis created radical anions enabling determination of equilibrium constants for electron transfer between anions of donor and acceptor molecules as a function of electrolyte concentration in THF. The measurements determined “composite equilibrium constants”, $K_{eqC}$, which contain information about the dissociation constant for the electrolyte cations, X + , with the radical anions of both the donor, $K°_d$(D –• ,X + ) and the acceptor, $K°_d$(A –• ,X + ). Dissociation constants were obtained for a selection of radical anions with tetrabutylammonium (TBA + ). The electrolyte was found to shift the reduction potentials of small molecules 1-methylpyrene and trans-stilbene by close to +130 mV whereas oligo-fluorenes and polyfluorenes experienced shifts of only (+25 ± 6) mV due to charge delocalization weakening the ion pair. These shifts for reduction of aromatic hydrocarbon molecules are smaller than shifts of +232 and +451 mV seen previously for benzophenone radical anion with TBA + and Na + respectively where the charge on the radical anion is localized largely on one C=O bond, thus forming a more tightly bound ion pair.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Direct analysis of cotton swipes for plutonium isotope determination by microextraction-ICP-MS

This study demonstrates a method for determining the isotopic composition of low-level (sub-pg) plutonium (Pu) directly from a cotton swipe. Environmental sample (ES) swipes are routinely employed as a tool for monitoring activities in nuclear facilities. Traditional ES swipe analysis, as employed in nuclear safeguards, utilizes laborious ashing, digestion, and chemical separation procedures prior to mass spectrometric (MS) analysis. Here, an innovative sample introduction technique employing a microextraction probe to extract Pu directly from the swipe surface is described. The microextraction probe lowers onto the swipe surface, seals on a small area (8 mm 2 ), and delivers solvent (2% HNO 3 ) to extract actinide material that may be present. The extracted analyte is subsequently directed into a sector field inductively coupled plasma (ICP)-MS for isotope ratio determination. This microextraction-ICP-MS method successfully determined the isotopic composition ( 240 Pu/ 239 Pu and 242 Pu/ 239 Pu) of three Pu certified reference materials (CRM 136, 137, and 138) that were deposited (1 pg) onto ES swipes. The percent relative difference from the certified value, uncorrected for instrumental fractionation, was <2% for the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu ratio on all three CRMs and <10% for the 242 Pu/ 239 Pu ratio on CRM 136 and 138. Here, the percent relative standard deviation, an estimate of the sample-to-sample isotopic precision, was <4% for the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu and <15% for the 242 Pu/ 239 Pu. Method limits of detection were determined, based on measurements of an enriched 244 Pu material, to be ~7 fg. Additionally, a mixed uranium (U) and Pu deposition was made to determine the method's ability to simultaneously extract U and Pu and determine the isotopic composition of both analytes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A neural network for determination of latent dimensionality in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) has proven to be a powerful unsupervised learning method for uncovering hidden features in complex and noisy datasets with applications in data mining, text recognition, dimension reduction, face recognition, anomaly detection, blind source separation, and many other fields. An important input for NMF is the latent dimensionality of the data, that is, the number of hidden features, K, present in the explored dataset. Unfortunately, and this quantity is rarely known a priori. The existing methods for determining latent dimensionality, such as Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD), are mostly heuristic and utilize different characteristics to estimate the number of hidden features. However, all of them require human presence to make a final determination of K. Here we utilize a supervised machine learning approach in combination with a recent method for model determination, called NMFk, to determine the number of hidden features automatically. NMFk performs a set of NMF simulations on an ensemble of matrices, obtained by bootstrapping the initial dataset, and estimates which K produces stable groups of latent features that reconstruct the initial dataset well. We then train a Multi-Layter Perceptron (MLP) classifier network to determine the correct number of latent features utilizing the statistics and characteristics of the NMF solution, obtained from NMFk. In order to train the MLP classifier, a training set of 58,660 matrices with predetermined latent features were factorized with NMFk. The MLP classifier in conjunction with NMFk maintains a greater than 95% success rate when applied to a held out test set. Additionally, when applied to two well-known benchmark datasets, the swimmer and MIT face data, NMFk/MLP correctly recovers the established number of hidden features. Finally, we compare the accuracy of our method to the ARD, AIC and Stability-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spectroscopic Determination of Stellar Parameters and Oxygen Abundances for Hyades/Field G–K Dwarfs

It has been suggested that Fe abundances of K dwarfs derived from Fe i and Fe ii lines show considerable discrepancies, and oxygen abundances determined from high-excitation O i 7771–5 triplet lines are appreciably overestimated (the problem becoming more serious toward lower T {sub eff}), which, however, has not yet been widely confirmed. With the aim of clarifying this issue, we spectroscopically determined the atmospheric parameters of 148 G–K dwarfs (Hyades cluster stars and field stars) by assuming the classical Fe i/Fe ii ionization equilibrium as usual, and determined their oxygen abundances by applying the non-local thermal equilibrium spectrum fitting analysis to O i 7771–5 lines. It turned out that the resulting parameters did not show any significant inconsistency with those determined by other methods (for example, the mean differences in T {sub eff} and logg from the well-determined solutions of Hyades dwarfs are mostly ≲100 K and ≲0.1 dex). Likewise, the oxygen abundances of Hyades stars are around [O/H] ∼ +0.2 dex (consistent with the metallicity of this cluster) without exhibiting any systematic T {sub eff}-dependence. Accordingly, we conclude that parameters can be spectroscopically evaluated to a sufficient precision in the conventional manner (based on the Saha–Boltzmann equation for Fe i/Fe ii) and oxygen abundances can be reliably determined from the O i 7771–5 triplet for K dwarfs as far as stars of T {sub eff} ≳ 4500 K are concerned. We suspect that previously reported strongly T {sub eff}-dependent discrepancies may have stemmed mainly from overestimation of weak-line strengths and/or improper T {sub eff} scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lander Locations, Mars Physical Ephemeris, and Solar System Parameters: Determination from Viking Lander Tracking Data

Radio tracking data from the Viking landers have been analyzed to determine the parameters of the Mars physical ephemeris, the radii of Mars at the landing sites, and the lander locations. The orientation of the Mars rotation axis, referred to the 1950.0 earth mean equator, equinox, and epoch, was determined to be 317.340+/-0.003 degrees right ascension and 52.710+/-0.002degrees declination. The planet's rotation period was determined to be 24 h, 37 min, 22.663+/-0.002 s. Analyses indicate that the determination of the motions of the Mars rotation axis will require additional tracking data. The Mars radii at the sites of landers 1 and 2 are 3389.38+/-0.06 km and 3381.91+/-0.08 km, respectively. The areocentric location of lander 1 is 22.272+/-0.002 degrees N, 47.94+/-0.2 degrees W. The lander 2 location is 47.670+/-0.002 degrees N, 225.71+/-0.2 degrees W. The areocentric right ascensions of the landers are determined to be 277.314+/-0.002 degrees for lander 1 and 99.546+/-0.002degrees for lander 2 at 0000 hours, January 1, 1977 (Julian date 2443144.57). Possible determinations of relativity parameters, solar oblateness, asteroid mass, and variations of the universal gravitational constant, from their effects on the planetary motions, will require the additional tracking data of the Viking extended mission.

Mayo, A. P.↗

Precision attitude determination for multimission spacecraft

Attitude determination algorithms for a multimission spacecraft are derived and their performance analyzed. The attitude determination system is composed of a strapdown Inertial Reference Unit (IRU), two fixed head star trackers, and an onboard computer. IRU data is processed to maintain real-time knowledge of spacecraft attitude relative to an inertial reference frame. Star tracker data is processed using Kalman filtering techniques to estimate and correct the attitude determination errors and the gyro drift compensation errors. The results of a star availability analysis for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions are presented. Linear covariance analysis techniques are used to evaluate nominal attitude determination performance, the effects of sensor measurement accuracy variations, the effects of errors in knowledge of sensor measurement accuracy, and the effects of star tracker misalignment errors. Results of a nonlinear simulation analysis of attitude determination performance are also presented. These analyses show that precision attitude determination for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions is achieved.

Murrell, J. W.↗

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses was investigated experimentally using several completely instrumented test roofs with known thermal resistances. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. In general, the remotely determined roof surface temperatures agreed very well with those obtained from ground measurements. The roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from 1/R delta T using ground measurements. However, this agreement may be fortuitous since the convective component of the heat loss is sensitive to small changes in roof temperature and to the average heat transfer coefficient used, whereas the radiative component is less sensitive. This, at this time, it is felt that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. The sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions was also evaluated. The analysis showed that the most reliable quantitative heat loss determinations can probably be obtained from aerial thermography taken under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Bowman, R. L.↗

An approach to autonomous, onboard orbit determination

An orbit determination subsystem that will operate as an integral part of an autonomous, onboard navigation system is presented and analyzed. The navigation system is required to interface solely with the downlink telemetry stream and uplink command stream of an existing class of geostationary satellites. In particular, the orbit will be determined from a set of onboard sensors, which previously were used only for attitude determination. The design of the orbit determination subsystem is described in detail. The rationale behind the choice of each component of the design is given. Finally, the performance of the orbit determination subsystem, under a variety of assumptions, is determined by a combination of numerical simulation and analytical methods.

Mease, K. D.↗

Determination of lifetime and surface recombination velocity of p-n junction solar cells and diodes by observing transients

The unified view of transient methods for the determination of recombination lifetime tau and back surface recombination velocity S presented here for silicon solar cells and diodes attempts to define limitations of existing methods and to evolve improvements. The presence of sizable junction capacitance for silicon devices under forward voltage invalidates the use of conventional open-circuit voltage decay (OCVD) and reverse recovery. This led Green (1983) to his method of compensated open-circuit voltage decay, in which the addition of an external resistor shunting the solar cell partially corrects for the presence of the junction capacitance. Setting this resistance to zero produces an electrical short-circuit current-decay method, which has the advantage of enabling determination of both tau and S. In an alternate approach, one may insert the functional dependence of the junction capacitance on forward voltage. This new method, denoted by the acronym OCVDCAP, enables the determination of tau with apparently greater accuracy than that obtained by previous methods utilizing voltage transients. But OCVDCAP has in common with the previous methods that it determines tau only and has practical utility only for determining tau of long-base devices. This means that it is useful only for thick base regions. In principle, however, it has an advantage over short-circuit current decay: it requires only pressure contacts, not ohmic contacts, and therefore may be used to determine tau after key processing steps in manufacturing.

Lindholm, Fredrik A.↗

Comparison of ERBS orbit determination accuracy using batch least-squares and sequential methods

The Flight Dynamics Div. (FDD) at NASA-Goddard commissioned a study to develop the Real Time Orbit Determination/Enhanced (RTOD/E) system as a prototype system for sequential orbit determination of spacecraft on a DOS based personal computer (PC). An overview is presented of RTOD/E capabilities and the results are presented of a study to compare the orbit determination accuracy for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) user spacecraft obtained using RTOS/E on a PC with the accuracy of an established batch least squares system, the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), operating on a mainframe computer. RTOD/E was used to perform sequential orbit determination for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) was used to perform the batch least squares orbit determination. The estimated ERBS ephemerides were obtained for the Aug. 16 to 22, 1989, timeframe, during which intensive TDRSS tracking data for ERBS were available. Independent assessments were made to examine the consistencies of results obtained by the batch and sequential methods. Comparisons were made between the forward filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions and definitive GTDS orbit solutions for ERBS; the solution differences were less than 40 meters after the filter had reached steady state.

Oza, D. H.↗

Orbit determination support of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon operational orbit

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/Poseidon) mission is designed to determine the topography of the Earth's sea surface over a 3-year period, beginning shortly after launch in July 1992. TOPEX/Poseidon is a joint venture between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the French Centre Nationale d'Etudes Spatiales. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon project center. The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) will nominally be used to support the day-to-day orbit determination aspects of the mission. Due to its extensive experience with TDRSS tracking data, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will receive and process TDRSS observational data. To fulfill the scientific goals of the mission, it is necessary to achieve and maintain a very precise orbit. The most stringent accuracy requirements are associated with planning and evaluating orbit maneuvers, which will place the spacecraft in its mission orbit and maintain the required ground track. To determine if the FDF can meet the TOPEX/Poseidon maneuver accuracy requirements, covariance analysis was undertaken with the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). The covariance analysis addressed many aspects of TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination, including arc length, force models, and other processing options. The most recent analysis has focused on determining the size of the geopotential field necessary to meet the maneuver support requirements. Analysis was undertaken with the full 50 x 50 Goddard Earth Model (GEM) T3 field as well as smaller representations of this model.

Schanzle, A. F.↗

Methods of determining loads and fiber orientations in anisotropic non-crystalline materials using energy flux deviation

An ultrasonic wave is applied to an anisotropic sample material in an initial direction and an angle of flux deviation of the ultrasonic wave front is measured from this initial direction. This flux deviation angle is induced by the unknown applied load. The flux shift is determined between this flux deviation angle and a previously determined angle of flux deviation of an ultrasonic wave applied to a similar anisotropic reference material under an initial known load condition. This determined flux shift is then compared to a plurality of flux shifts of a similarly tested, similar anisotropic reference material under a plurality of respective, known load conditions, whereby the load applied to the particular anisotropic sample material is determined. A related method is disclosed for determining the fiber orientation from known loads and a determined flux shift.

Prosser, William H.↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗

Magnetometer-only attitude and rate determination for a gyro-less spacecraft

Attitude determination algorithms that requires only the earth's magnetic field will be useful for contingency conditions. One way to determine attitude is to use the time derivative of the magnetic field as the second vector in the attitude determination process. When no gyros are available, however, attitude determination becomes difficult because the rates must be propagated via integration of Euler's equation, which in turn requires knowledge of the initial rates. The spacecraft state to be determined must then include not only the attitude but also rates. This paper describes a magnetometer-only attitude determination scheme with no a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state, which uses a deterministic algorithm to initialize an extended Kalman filter. The deterministic algorithm uses Euler's equation to relate the time derivatives of the magnetic field in the reference and body frames and solves the resultant transcendental equations for the coarse attitude and rates. An important feature of the filter is that its state vector also includes corrections to the propagated rates, thus enabling it to generate highly accurate solutions. The method was tested using in-flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particles Explorer (SAMPEX), a Small Explorer spacecraft. SAMPEX data using several eclipse periods were used to simulate conditions that may exist during the failure of the on-board digital sun sensor. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude (within even nominal mission requirements) and 0.01 degree per second (deg/sec) in the rates.

Natanson, G. A.↗

Precision orbit determination using TOPEX/Poseidon TDRSS observations

The TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) Mission carries a variety of packages to support experimental, precision and operational orbit determination. Included are a GPS transponder, laser retro-reflectors, the French-developed Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) Doppler tracking system and a Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) transponder. Presently, TDRSS tracking is used for operational orbit support and is processed with force and measurement modeling consistent with this purpose. However, the low noise and extensive geographical coverage of the TDRSS/TOPEX data allows an assessment of TDRSS Precision Orbit Determination (POD) capabilities by comparison to the T/P precision orbit determination. The Geodynamics (GEODYN) Orbit Determination System is used to process laser and DORIS data to produce the precision orbits for the T/P Project. GEODYN has been modified recently to support the TDRSS observations. TDRSS data analysis can now benefit from the extensive force modeling and reference frame stability needed to meet the orbit determination (OD) goals of the T/P Mission. This analysis has concentrated on the strongest of the TDRSS measurement types, its two-way average range rate. Both the TDRSS and T/P orbits have been assessed in combination with the global satellite laser ranging (SLR) data and by themselves. These results indicate that significant improvement in the TDRSS ephemerides is obtained when the T/P orbit is well determined by SLR, and the TDRSS/TOPEX Doppler link is used to position TDRSS. Meter-level TDRSS positioning uncertainty is achieved using this approach. When the TDRSS orbit location is provided by this approach, the two-way range rate from a single TDRSS (i.e. West only) can provide T/P orbits with sub-meter radial accuracies and two meter RMS total position agreement with SLR defined orbits. These preliminary results indicate improved modeling of the TDRSS measurement through the elimination of heretofore neglected effects like the motion of the T/P TDRSS antenna and improved modeling of ionospheric and atmospheric refractive effects, and the inclusion of TDRSS East in the analysis are warranted. Through these improvements, TDRSS can make a significant contribution to geopotential recovery and precision OD.

Teles, Jerome↗

Investigation of Adaptive-threshold Approaches for Determining Area-Time Integrals from Satellite Infrared Data to Estimate Convective Rain Volumes

The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research is being carried out as a collaborative effort between the two participating organizations, with the satellite data analysis to determine values for the ATIs being done primarily by the STC-METSAT scientists and the associated radar data analysis to determine the 'ground-truth' rainfall estimates being done primarily at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T). Synthesis of the two separate kinds of data and investigation of the resulting rainfall-versus-ATI relationships is then carried out jointly. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'adaptive-threshold approach'. In the former, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts as determined by radar. Work on the second, or 'adaptive-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values has explored two avenues: (1) attempt involved choosing IR thresholds to match the satellite ATI values with ones separately calculated from the radar data on a case basis; and (2) an attempt involved a striaghtforward screening analysis to determine the (fixed) offset that would lead to the strongest correlation and lowest standard error of estimate in the relationship between the satellite ATI values and the corresponding rainfall volumes.

Smith, Paul L.↗

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Murphy, Patrick Charles↗