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At least 91 records · Page 5

Comparing the Degree of Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Four Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Combining Livestock Production Information in a Process-Based Vegetation Model to Reconstruct the History of Grassland Management

Grassland management type (grazed or mown) and intensity (intensive or extensive) play a crucial role in the greenhouse gas balance and surface energy budget of this biome, both at field scale and at large spatial scale. However, global gridded historical information on grassland management intensity is not available. Combining modelled grass-biomass productivity with statistics of the grass-biomass demand by livestock, we reconstruct gridded maps of grassland management intensity from 1901 to 2012. These maps include the minimum area of managed vs. maximum area of unmanaged grasslands and the fraction of mown vs. grazed area at a resolution of 0.5deg by 0.5deg. The grass-biomass demand is derived from a livestock dataset for 2000, extended to cover the period 19012012. The grass-biomass supply (i.e. forage grass from mown grassland and biomass grazed) is simulated by the process-based model ORCHIDEE-GM driven by historical climate change, risingCO2 concentration, and changes in nitrogen fertilization. The global area of managed grassland obtained in this study increases from 6.1 x 10(exp 6) km(exp 2) in 1901 to 12.3 x 10(exp 6) kmI(exp 2) in 2000, although the expansion pathway varies between different regions. ORCHIDEE-GM also simulated augmentation in global mean productivity and herbage-use efficiency over managed grassland during the 20th century, indicating a general intensification of grassland management at global scale but with regional differences. The gridded grassland management intensity maps are model dependent because they depend on modelled productivity. Thus specific attention was given to the evaluation of modelled productivity against a series of observations from site-level net primary productivity (NPP) measurements to two global satellite products of gross primary productivity (GPP) (MODIS-GPP and SIF data). Generally, ORCHIDEE-GM captures the spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and inter-annual variability of grassland productivity at global scale well and thus is appropriate for global applications presented here.

Livestock dataset↗

Issues in knowledge representation to support maintainability: A case study in scientific data preparation

Scientific data preparation is the process of extracting usable scientific data from raw instrument data. This task involves noise detection (and subsequent noise classification and flagging or removal), extracting data from compressed forms, and construction of derivative or aggregate data (e.g. spectral densities or running averages). A software system called PIPE provides intelligent assistance to users developing scientific data preparation plans using a programming language called Master Plumber. PIPE provides this assistance capability by using a process description to create a dependency model of the scientific data preparation plan. This dependency model can then be used to verify syntactic and semantic constraints on processing steps to perform limited plan validation. PIPE also provides capabilities for using this model to assist in debugging faulty data preparation plans. In this case, the process model is used to focus the developer's attention upon those processing steps and data elements that were used in computing the faulty output values. Finally, the dependency model of a plan can be used to perform plan optimization and runtime estimation. These capabilities allow scientists to spend less time developing data preparation procedures and more time on scientific analysis tasks. Because the scientific data processing modules (called fittings) evolve to match scientists' needs, issues regarding maintainability are of prime importance in PIPE. This paper describes the PIPE system and describes how issues in maintainability affected the knowledge representation used in PIPE to capture knowledge about the behavior of fittings.

Chien, Steve↗

Intelligent assistance in scientific data preparation

Scientific data preparation is the process of extracting usable scientific data from raw instrument data. This task involves noise detection (and subsequent noise classification and flagging or removal), extracting data from compressed forms, and construction of derivative or aggregate data (e.g. spectral densities or running averages). A software system called PIPE provides intelligent assistance to users developing scientific data preparation plans using a programming language called Master Plumber. PIPE provides this assistance capability by using a process description to create a dependency model of the scientific data preparation plan. This dependency model can then be used to verify syntactic and semantic constraints on processing steps to perform limited plan validation. PIPE also provides capabilities for using this model to assist in debugging faulty data preparation plans. In this case, the process model is used to focus the developer's attention upon those processing steps and data elements that were used in computing the faulty output values. Finally, the dependency model of a plan can be used to perform plan optimization and run time estimation. These capabilities allow scientists to spend less time developing data preparation procedures and more time on scientific analysis tasks.

Chien, Steve↗

Search for top-philic heavy resonances in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for the associated production of a heavy resonance with a top-quark or a top-antitop-quark pair, and decaying into a $\overline{tt}$ pair is presented. The search uses the data recorded by the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Events containing exactly one electron or muon are selected. The two hadronically decaying top quarks from the resonance decay are reconstructed using jets clustered with a large radius parameter of R = 1. The invariant mass spectrum of the two top quark candidates is used to search for a resonance signal in the range of 1.0 TeV to 3.2 TeV. The presence of a signal is examined using an approach with minimal model dependence followed by a model-dependent interpretation. No significant excess is observed over the background expectation. Upper limits on the production cross section times branching ratio at 95% confidence level are provided for a heavy Z' boson based on a simplified model, for Z' mass between 1.0 TeV and 3.0 TeV. The observed (expected) limits range from 21 (14) fb to 119 (86) fb depending on the choice of model parameters

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Enforcing detailed balance in the Borgnakke–Larsen redistribution method with temperature dependent relaxation models

For decades, it has been observed that the commonly used Borgnakke–Larsen method for energy redistribution in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo codes fails to satisfy the principle of detailed balance when coupled to a wide variety of temperature dependent relaxation models, while seemingly satisfying detailed balance when coupled to others. Many attempts have been made to remedy the issue, yet much ambiguity remains, and no consensus appears in the literature regarding the root cause of the intermittent compatibility of the Borgnakke–Larsen method with temperature dependent relaxation models. This paper alleviates that ambiguity by presenting a rigorous theoretical derivation of the Borgnakke–Larsen method's requirement for satisfying detailed balance. Specifically, it is shown that the Borgnakke–Larsen method maintains detailed balance if and only if the probability of internal-energy exchange during a collision depends only on collision invariants (e.g., total energy). Here, the consequences of this result are explored in the context of several published definitions of relaxation temperature, including translational, total, and cell-averaged temperatures. Of particular note, it is shown that cell-averaged temperatures, which have been widely discussed in the literature as a way to ensure equilibrium is reached, also fail in a similar, although less dramatic, fashion when the aforementioned relationship is not enforced. The developed theory can be used when implementing existing or new relaxation models and will ensure that detailed balance is satisfied.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The simulated features of heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation with a time-dependent drift model. I - General effects of the changing neutral sheet over the period 1985-1990

A time-dependent drift model is used to simulate the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays, with emphasis on the effects of the wavy heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS) as a function of time during the period 1985-1990. The model predicted a clearly defined time difference between the time when minimum modulation occurred at earth and at radial distances farther away from the sun, indicating that the HNS plays an important part in establishing this observed time delay. The movements of the Voyager 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 spacecraft were simulated in order to calculate instantaneous radial and latitudinal gradients. The time dependencies of these gradients were found to follow the observations well. The model study indicates that the HNS cannot be ignored, especially during periods of low to moderate solar activity, when the modulation of cosmic rays is described.

Potgieter, M. S.↗

The Use of a Two-Dimensional, Time-Dependent Cloud Model to Predict Convective and Stratiform Clouds and Precipitation

A two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used in two field projects to forecast the convective development during the day from the morning sounding. In effect, the cloud model gives a dynamic analysis of the sounding as affected by heating and evaporation at the earth's surface, divergence of the winds throughout the atmosphere, and cloud shadow effects. During the initial project, the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, the results were mixed. Model runs were easily made when soundings were available. but displaying the results in a meaningful and useful way was the limiting factor. In a later experiment, the North Dakota Thunderstorm Project, the problem of displaying results was overcome and soundings were available from the local weather service forecast office with a high degree of reliability. The experimental model correctly forecasts convective development about 80% of the time, and precipitation or no precipitation more than 70% of the time.

Kopp, Fred J.↗

Three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of a solar flare-generated interplanetary shock wave

A three-dimensional time-dependent MHD model of the propagation of an interplanetary shock wave into an ambient three-dimensional heliospheric solar wind is initialized with a peak velocity of 1000 km/s at the center of a right circular cone of 18 deg included angle at 18 solar radii. Differences from a previous 2-1/2 simulation (Wu et al., 1983; Gislason et al., 1984; Dryer et al., 1984) include diminuation of the solar peak velocity and concentration of the peak density at each radius. The IMF magnitude starts with high-latitude peaks, and helical-like IMF rotation is noted due to a large-amplitude nonlinear Alfven wave in the shocked plasma.

Dryer, M.↗

Rate dependent constitutive models for fiber reinforced polymer composites

A literature survey was conducted to assess the state-of-the-art in rate dependent constitutive models for continuous fiber reinforced polymer matrix composite (PMC) materials. Several recent models which include formulations for describing plasticity, viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, and rate-dependent phenomenon such as creep and stress relaxation are outlined and compared. When appropriate, these comparisons include brief descriptions of the mathematical formulations, the test procedures required for generating material constants, and details of available data comparing test results to analytical predictions.

Gates, Thomas S.↗

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The intensity dependent spread model and color constancy

Odetics is investigating the use of the intensity dependent spread (IDS) model for determining color constancy. Object segmentation is performed effortlessly by the human visual systems, but creating computer vision that takes an image as input and performs object identification on the basis of color has some difficulties. The unknown aspects of the light illuminating a scene in space or anywhere can seriously interfere with the use of color for object identification. The color of an image depends not only on the physical characteristics of the object, but also on the wavelength composition of the incident illumination. IDS processing provides the extraction of edges and of reflectance changes across edges, independent of variations in scene illumination. IDS depends solely on the ratio of the reflectances on the two sides of the edge. Researchers are in the process of using IDS to recover the reflectance image.

Kurrasch, Ellie↗

A Meteorological Model's Dependence on Radiation Update Frequency

Numerical weather models are used to simulate circulations in the atmosphere including clouds and precipitation by applying a set of mathematical equations over a three-dimensional grid. The grid is composed of discrete points at which the meteorological variables are defined. As computing power continues to rise these models are being used at finer grid spacing, but they must still cover a wide range of scales. Some of the physics that must be accounted for in the model cannot be explicitly resolved, and their effects, therefore, must be estimated or "parameterized". Some of these parameterizations are computationally expensive. To alleviate the problem, they are not always updated at the time resolution of the model with the assumption being that the impact will be small. In this study, a coupled land-atmosphere model is used to assess the impact of less frequent updates of the computationally expensive radiation physics for a case on June 6, 2002, that occurred during a field experiment over the central plains known as International H20 Project (IHOP). The model was tested using both the original conditions, which were dry, and with modified conditions wherein moisture was added to the lower part of the atmosphere to produce clouds and precipitation (i.e., a wet case). For each of the conditions (i.e., dry and wet), four set of experiments were conducted wherein the model was run for a period of 24 hours and the radiation fields (including both incoming solar and outgoing longwave) were updated every 1, 3, 10, and 100 time steps. Statistical tests indicated that average quantities of surface variables for both the dry and wet cases were the same for the various update frequencies. However, spatially the results could be quite different especially in the wet case after it began to rain. The near-surface wind field was found to be different most of the time even for the dry case. In the wet case, rain intensities and average vertical profiles of heating associated with cloudy areas were found to differ for the various radiation update frequencies. The latter implies that the mean state of the model could be different as a result of not updating the radiation fields every time step and has important implications for longer term climate studies

Eastman, Joseph L.↗

Performance of scene dependent angular models in deriving top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from satellite radiance measurements

The ERB experiment algorithm is applied to the Nimbus-7 scanner data for June 1979 to analyze the performance of scene-dependent angular models. The ERBE-derived albedo and LW flux are compared to results from the sorting-into-angular-bins (SAB) method described by Arking and Vemury (1984) and the ERB Matrix algorithm described by Jacobowitz et al. (1984). Results are given for the variation of ERBE-derived flux with viewing zenith angle. Comparing results derived from the ERBE algorithm and from the SAB method, zonal mean differences for the month were less than 0.01 for albedo and 2 W/ sq m for longwave flux. When compared to the ERB matrix algorithm, the ERBE algorithm gives less dependence on viewing zenith angle for SW fluxes, but more for LW fluxes. Cloud results from the ERBE method using broadband Nimbus-7 ERB radiances are compared with the new cloud ERB data results of Stowe et al. (1988). Agreement typically within 0.10 was found.

Suttles, John T.↗

Coverage modeling for dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems

Several different models for predicting coverage in a fault-tolerant system, including models for permanent, intermittent, and transient errors, are discussed. Markov, semi-Markov, nonhomogeneous Markov, and extended stochastic Petri net models for computing coverage are developed. Two types of events that interfere with recovery are examined; and methods for modeling such events, whether they are deterministic or random, are given. The sensitivity of system reliability/availability to the coverage parameter and the sensitivity of the coverage parameter to various error-handling strategies are investigated. It is found that a policy of attempting transient recovery upon detection of an error can actually increase the unreliability of the system. This result is true if the error detectability is not nearly perfect, so that the risk of producing an undetectable error is greater than the benefit gained by not discarding the component.

Dugan, Joanne Bechta↗

Revealing the ISO/IEC 9126-1 Clique Tree for COTS Software Evaluation

Previous research has shown that acyclic dependency models, if they exist, can be extracted from software quality standards and that these models can be used to assess software safety and product quality. In the case of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, the extracted dependency model can be used in a probabilistic Bayesian network context for COTS software evaluation. Furthermore, while experts typically employ Bayesian networks to encode domain knowledge, secondary structures (clique trees) from Bayesian network graphs can be used to determine the probabilistic distribution of any software variable (attribute) using any clique that contains that variable. Secondary structures, therefore, provide insight into the fundamental nature of graphical networks. This paper will apply secondary structure calculations to reveal the clique tree of the acyclic dependency model extracted from the ISO/IEC 9126-1 software quality standard. Suggestions will be provided to describe how the clique tree may be exploited to aid efficient transformation of an evaluation model.

Morris, A. Terry↗

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

A time-dependent theoretical model of the polar wind Preliminary results

The coupled, time-dependent continuity, momentum, and energy equations of a two-ion O(+) and H(+) quasi-neutral plasma were solved in order to extend understanding of polar wind behavior. This numerical code allows studies of the time dependent behavior of polar wind-type flows into and out of the ionosphere. Initial studies indicate that the typical time constants for electron and ion temperature changes are of the order of minutes and tens of minutes, respectively. The response time of the minor high altitude ion O(+) is less than an hour, whereas that of the major ion, H(+), is many hours. The initial test runs also demonstrate the fact that temporary supersonic flows of both O(+) and H(+) are possible, especially in the presence of significant ion heating.

Gombosi, T. I.↗