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NASA NTRS2018

The Disruptive Technology That is Additive Construction: System Development Lessons Learned for Terrestrial and Planetary Applications

Disruptive technologies are unique in that they spawn other new technologies and applications as they grow. These activities are usually preceded by the question, "What If?" For example, "What if we could use an emerging technology and in-situ materials to promote exploration on the Moon or Mars, and then use that same technology to keep our troops out of harm's way and/or help the worlds' homeless?" This question allows us to flip the mindset of "how can people create more valuable innovation?" to "how can innovation create more valuable people?." This approach allows us to view augmented human labor as an inclusive opportunity, not a threat. The discipline of Additive Construction is growing rapidly due to the flexibility, speed, safety and logistics benefits offered as compared to standard construction techniques. Additive construction is a disruptive technology in that it employs the principles of additive manufacturing on a human habitat structure scale. Developed initially for emergency management and disaster relief applications, additive construction has now grown into military infrastructure and planetary (Moon and Mars) surface infrastructure applications as well. Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME) is a NASA technology development project that seeks to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing shelters for human crews, and other surface infrastructure, on the Moon or Mars for a future human presence. The ACME project will allow, for the first time, the 3-dimensional printing of surface structures on planetary bodies using local materials for construction, thereby tremendously reducing launch and transportation mass and logistics. Some examples of infrastructure that could be constructed using robotic additive construction methods are landing pads, rocket engine blast protection berms, roads, dust free zones, equipment shelters, habitats and radiation shelters. Terrestrial applications include the development of surface structures using Earth-based materials for emergency response, disaster relief, general construction, and housing at all economic levels. This paper will describe the progress made by the NASA ACME project with a focus on prototypes and full scale additive construction demonstrations using both Portland cement concrete and other indigenous material mixtures. Rationale for the use of additive construction for both terrestrial and planetary applications will be explored and a thorough state-of-the-art of additive construction techniques will be presented. An evolutionary history of NASA's additive construction development efforts, dating back to 2004, will be included. The paper will then step through a series of trade studies performed to inform key processing and design decisions in the development of the full-scale ACES-3 system developed by NASA and the Jacobs Space Exploration Group for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Construction Engineers Research Laboratory (CERL) in Champaign, IL. The selection of aggregate and binders, based on in-situ materials, will also be presented and discussed

Space Processing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Resilient Near Real-Time Analysis Workflows in Fusion Energy Science

Nuclear fusion holds the promise of an endless source of energy. Several research experiments across the world and joint modeling and simulation efforts between the nuclear physics and high performance computing communities are actively preparing the operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Both experimental reactors and their simulated counterparts generate data that must be analyzed quickly and in a resilient way to support decision making for the configuration of subsequent runs or prevent a catastrophic failure. However, the cost if the traditional techniques used to improve the resilience of analysis workflows, i.e., replicating datasets and computational tasks, becomes prohibitive with explosion of the volume of data produced by modern instruments and simulations. Therefore, we advocate in this paper for an alternate approach based on data reduction and data streaming. The rationale is that by allowing for a reasonable, controlled, and guaranteed loss of accuracy it becomes possible to transfer smaller amounts of data, shorten the execution time of analysis workflows, and lower the cost of replication to increase resilience. We develop our research and development roadmap towards resilient near real-time analysis workflows in fusion energy science and present early results showing that data streaming and data reduction is a promising way to speed up the execution and improve the resilience of analysis workflows.

Suter, Fred↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mars Rover Sample Return Orbiter design concepts

The observational orbiter of the Mars Rover Sample Return mission will observe the (10x10 km) landing sites and provide data that will be used in the decision to commit the landing vehicles to a landing at a chosen site. To provide observational data from orbit at a surface resolution consistent with the hazard tolerance of the landing vehicles, the orbiter imaging subsystem must be capable of 0.25 meters resolution per picture element (pixel). The design of the imaging, pointing, and data subsystems capable of providing this capability has been completed in this study. The rationale for these requirements and the more detailed derived requirements affecting the spacecraft design are discussed.

Randolph, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Recent results from Long Duration Exposure Facility materials testing

The overall goals of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) investigations, established by the Materials Special Investigation Group (MSIG) prior to LDEF retrieval, are to provide useful engineering data to people designing and building spacecraft, and secondarily, to obtain data of potential interest to materials researchers. The specific objectives are to support predictions of materials lifetimes under the various low earth orbit (LEO) environments to determine how long the material will physically survive; to estimate the engineering performance lifetimes of these same materials under specific LEO exposures; to identify materials and processes by which given materials degrade; and to provide insights into development of new, more inherently LEO environmentally resistant materials. To achieve the established objectives, two criteria were established to select which materials had the highest priorities for analyses. The first criteria was to examine materials which are still being used on new spacecraft. The second priority was to examine materials with multiple exposure locations on LDEF, because this provided the opportunity to develop predictions on how a material will behave as the exposure environment varies. The goals as defined led to the identification of silverized Teflon (Ag/FEP), chromic acid anodized aluminum, and certain thermal control paints used on LDEF as the material types of highest priority for examination. Ag/FEP was chosen because of an excellent a/e ratio (extremely low), and extensive flight history. Also influencing the decision was the fact that the Hubble Space Telescope uses Ag/FEP as its primary passive thermal control system (and was launched shortly after LDEF retrieval) and that a number of other spacecraft are using or considering this material for use. The various forms of Ag/FEP were used on virtually every side of the LDEF except the earth end. The potential uses of this material, and the location distribution and therefore, exposure conditions, have provided the rationale and opportunity for a comprehensive study of this material.

Pippin, H. Gary↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA Feedback to DLA Land & Maritime Moratorium on Wafer Fab Audits

On September 29, 2017 the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), Land and Maritime, announced that on September 1, 2017 they had begun a moratorium on the auditing of wafer fabrication facilities (fabs) used in the production of semiconductor die for military (MIL) qualified integrated circuits and discrete semiconductors (transistors and diodes). The announcement said the moratorium would last for six months initially and would apply to all wafer fabs qualified to MIL-PRF-19500 (discretes) and MIL-PRF-38535 (ICs) located, onshore or offshore. The stated rationale behind this action was to give DLA time to evaluate the risk of modifying current surveillance practices across 70+ Federal Stock Classes (FSC) under the jurisdiction of the DLA Qualifying Activity (VQ). The objective was to free up the resources used in these audits so they could be redirected towards audits of other commodities which were under resourced, notably connectors. In the announcement letter, DLA-VQ requested data from the community to assist with decisions on wafer fab re-audit cycle modifications. NASA used available information on current and historical audit schedules to gather such data and analyzed it to provide an in-depth understanding of the impact of locations, part types, in-house or out-of-house fabs on those schedules over time. This presentation provides the results of NASA's data analysis and suggest some changes to auditing practices that could increase efficient use of resources without significant increases in risk.

fab audits↗
NASA NTRS2011

Risk Management of Jettisoned Objects in LEO

The construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) has led to the release of many objects into its orbital plane, usually during the course of an extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Such releases are often unintentional, but in a growing number of cases, the jettison has been intentional, conducted after a careful assessment of the net risk to the partnership and to other objects in space. Since its launch in 1998 the ISS has contributed on average at least one additional debris object that is simultaneously in orbit with the station, although the number varies widely from zero to eight at any one moment. All of these objects present potential risks to other objects in orbit. Whether it comes from known and tracked orbiting objects or from unknown or untrackable objects, collision with orbital debris can have disastrous consequences. Objects greater than 10cm are generally well documented and tracked, allowing orbiting spacecraft or satellites opportunities to perform evasive maneuvers (commonly known as Debris Avoidance Maneuvers, or DAMs) in the event that imminent collision is predicted. The issue with smaller debris; however, is that it is too numerous to be tracked effectively and yet still poses disastrous consequences if it intercepts a larger object. Due to the immense kinetic energy of any item in orbit, collision with debris as small as 1cm can have catastrophic consequences for many orbiting satellites or spacecraft. Faced with the growing orbital debris threat and the potentially catastrophic consequences of a collision-generated debris shower originating in an orbit crossing the ISS altitude band, in 2007 the ISS program manger asked program specialists to coordinate a multilateral jettison policy amongst the ISS partners. This policy would define the acceptable risk trade rationale for intentional release of a debris object, and other mandatory constraints on such jettisons to minimize the residual risks whenever a jettison was accepted. Although ISS-related debris often presents untenable risks to the EVA crew, IVA crew, or to a departing cargo vehicle for a controlled disposal, such released objects also present a ballistic nuisance to the visiting vehicle traffic, and a potential fragmentation threat to the hundreds of other functional and debris objects whose perigees lie below the ISS orbital altitude. Thus, every such jettison decision is a conscious risk trade.

Bacon, John B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

From binary to quinary: The rationale and development of GaInAsSbBi for mid- and long-wave infrared sensing applications

Given the added complexity in flux calibration and composition evaluation inherent to quinary alloy growth, what motivates compounding the challenges of III–V-Bi growth with the goal of producing a quinary alloy of GaInAsSbBi for mid- and long-wave infrared sensing applications? Each elemental constituent provides some additional design freedom to achieve the ultimate goal of producing a lattice-matched, bulk random alloy mid-wave infrared III–V material with smooth surface morphology and high optoelectronic quality to enable high performance elevated operating temperatures. Here, this paper reviews the evolution of Bi-containing semiconductor research, focusing on mid- and long-wave infrared materials and highlighting key research findings that motivated the decisions to accept the added complexity in going from binaries like InAs or InSb, to InAsBi, to InAsSbBi, and, finally, to GaInAsSbBi to meet the performance demands of advanced infrared sensing applications.

Webster, Preston T. [Air Force Research Laboratory↗
NASA NTRS1976

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space: Rationale for planning

The goals of NASA's space industralization program include contributing to increased productivity on earth without taxing the environment, generating new values through extraterrestrial productivity, and providing new growth options for the future which include the permanent settlement of space and long-range colonization and exploration projects. In planning the long-range space program based on essentially utilitarian aspects, without losing sight of the more humanistically significant long term, and to forecast associated technology requirements, a realistic approach is obtained by combining extrapolative and normative planning modes so that common stepping stones can be identified. In the extrapolative view, alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies. In the normative view, some ideal state in the far future is envisioned or postulated, and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment.

Vonputtkamer, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence

A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.

autonomy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence

A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.

autonomy↗
NASA NTRS2012

Review and Assessment of JPL's Thermal Margins

JPL has captured its experience from over four decades of robotic space exploration into a set of design rules. These rules have gradually changed into explicit requirements and are now formally implemented and verified. Over an extended period of time, the initial understanding of intent and rationale for these rules has faded and rules are now frequently applied without further consideration. In the meantime, mission classes and their associated risk postures have evolved, coupled with resource constraints and growing design diversity, bringing into question the current "one size fits all" thermal margin approach. This paper offers a systematic review of the heat flow path from an electronic junction to the eventual heat rejection to space. This includes the identification of different regimes along this path and the associated requirements. The work resulted in a renewed understanding of the intent behind JPL requirements for hot thermal margins and a framework for relevant considerations, which in turn enables better decision making when a deviation to these requirements is considered.

derating↗
NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Investigation of Neural Strategies of Visual Search

The goal of this project was to measure how neurons in the superior colliculus (SC) change their activity during a visual search task. Specifically, we proposed to measure how the activity of these neurons was altered by the discriminability of visual targets and to test how these changes might predict the changes in the subjects performance. The primary rationale for this study was that understanding how the information encoded by these neurons constrains overall search performance would foster the development of better models of human performance. Work performed during the period supported by this grant has achieved these aims. First, we have recorded from neurons in the superior colliculus (SC) during a visual search task in which the difficulty of the task and the performance of the subject was systematically varied. The results from these single-neuron physiology experiments shows that prior to eye movement onset, the difference in activity across the ensemble of neurons reaches a fixed threshold value, reflecting the operation of a winner-take-all mechanism. Second, we have developed a model of eye movement decisions based on the principle of winner-take-all . The model incorporates the idea that the overt saccade choice reflects only one of the multiple saccades prepared during visual discrimination, consistent with our physiological data. The value of the model is that, unlike previous models, it is able to account for both the latency and the percent correct of saccade choices.

Krauzlis, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Optimization Approach to Support Science Decision Making for Lunar Surface Exploration

Introduction: Scientific exploration is one of the three pillars of NASA’s Moon2Mars architecture, with crew surface extra vehicular activities (EVA) serving a critical enabling function. Development of surface EVA operational planning and execution, specifically integrating science and flight control teams (FCT), is currently being explored through analog scenarios. This integration, exercised, for example, through the Joint EVA and Hu-man Surface Mobility Test Team (JETT), allows for science input on EVA activities in near real-time through a Science Evaluation Room (SER), or Arte-mis science backroom, which integrates with the broader FCT through the Science Officer. The SER works within the FCT to support dynamic EVA planning in response to changes in operational constraints as well as science opportunities and re-prioritization, increasing the mission science return and accelerating the accomplishment of the Moon2Mars science objectives. The SER works within the FCT to provide recommendations to traverse execution in near real-time. One challenge is the requirement to deliver SER inputs to the FCT on operationally relevant timelines. Failure to do so may result in suboptimal execution of science exploration EVAs or even loss of key science objectives. To close this gap, we present a network optimization tool to allow the SER to provide rapid input to the FCT in response to changes in operational constraints or science opportunities. Inputs are predicated on approved science objectives, and clear rationale must be provided to the FCT for any requested change. Accordingly, this tool incorporates the Science Traceability Matrix (STM), SER prioritization scheme, and station characterization and action planning with operational constraints such as duration, traverse speed, and distance to maximize science objectives based on SER priorities, consistent with FCT operational requirements. Method: As a proof of concept, we used an existing linear programing software package used to simulate optimal routes through cellular metabolism. We built a Demonstrative Model with three STM objectives and four stations on a region of the Moon. The objectives were given an arbitrary prioritization and mapped to the stations through four possible crew actions. (Figs. 1 and 2). This station to STM mapping is consistent with the method used by the JETT5 Science Team to develop analog surface EVA science planning. We used a grid system with the landing site at the origin and the four stations placed across the positive x,y quadrant. Actions were assigned to each station and the accomplishment of those actions resulted in a numerical “reward” based on the ability of that action to achieve science objectives. The aggregate reward from each individual STM objective contributes to a global score (Science Yield), weighted by its priority. Operational constraints included a requirement to start and end at the landing site, 5 minutes each for initial station characterization and “clean up,” and variable total EVA time, traverse rate (fixed to 0.5 meters per second in our example), and time to perform each action (10, 5, 7, and 15 min for actions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively). Additional constraints and variables will be added in the future (e.g., sample mass, number of stations, traverse route constraints, illumination). Optimization. We converted the connections (arcs) between these stations (nodes) into a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem (arcs = constraints, nodes = variables) with the objective to maximize Science Yield. For any action, the Science Yield is equal to the relevance of that action to an STM objective [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low relevance, respectively], multiplied by the STM Objective Priority [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low priority, respectively]. This resulted in a model that computes the optimal station and action combination to maximize the Science Yield. These weightings can be adjusted by the SER as desired. Results: We explored three test cases for the Demonstrative Model. First, we set the maximum EVA duration to 120 minutes and computed the optimal route (Fig. 3A). The model suggested per-forming Actions 1 and 2 at Station P01, followed by Actions 1 and 2 at Station P02, and finally Actions 1 and 3 at Station P04 before returning to the Landing Site. Second, we adjusted the STM Objective Priori-ty order and computed the new optimal route (Fig. 3B). Under this situation, the model suggested per-forming all Actions at Station P02 followed by all Actions at Station P03. The previous test cases were relevant to SER planning activities. Next, we explored providing mid-EVA replanning input to the FCT. Scenario: While executing the Route in Fig. 3A the crew finishes at Station P01 and FCT decides that the EVA needs to finish in 45 minutes back at the Landing Site. FCT asks SER to recommend changes to the plan to accommodate this operation-al change. Using the model and incorporating these new constraints (start at Station P01, max. time of 45 min), the model suggested performing Actions 2 and 4 at Station P03 (Fig. 4), requiring 41 minutes to complete and return to the Landing Site. Interestingly, Station 3 was not part of the original route. Using the model, we determined the EVA would need 66 minutes, instead of 45, in order for the original Station P04 to yield a larger Science Yield than Station P03. The parametrization and simulation was per-formed in less than a minute, demonstrating the operational relevance of the approach. Future Efforts: The results from the Demonstrative Model suggest this tool can accelerate SER decision making on operationally relevant timelines. Use in analog activities, such as JETT5 or follow-ons, which have over a dozen stations for a crew to explore and over a dozen actions per station, will provide needed validation of the utility of this tool for planning EVAs, replanning mid-EVA, or planning follow-on EVAs based on previous results. Further integration with FCT execution monitoring tools may provide additional efficiency gains, al-lowing rapid and iterative exploration of operation-al and science decision space by the FCT and SER.

Science Operations↗
NASA NTRS1992

Time management displays for shuttle countdown

The Intelligent Launch Decision Support System project is developing a Time Management System (TMS) for the NASA Test Director (NTD) to use for time management during Shuttle terminal countdown. TMS is being developed in three phases: an information phase; a tool phase; and an advisor phase. The information phase is an integrated display (TMID) of firing room clocks, of graphic timelines with Ground Launch Sequencer events, and of constraints. The tool phase is a what-if spreadsheet (TMWI) for devising plans for resuming from unplanned hold situations. It is tied to information in TMID, propagates constraints forward and backward to complete unspecified values, and checks the plan against constraints. The advisor phase is a situation advisor (TMSA), which proactively suggests tactics. A concept prototype for TMSA is under development. The TMID is currently undergoing field testing. Displays for TMID and TMWI are described. Descriptions include organization, rationale for organization, implementation choices and constraints, and use by NTD.

Beller, Arthur E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robust and Mass Efficient Thermal Protection Systems for Future Venus Missions

Several international Venus missions, both orbiter, and in-situ probe are in the works after a prolonged absence. Future missions are expected to be long-duration lander missions and balloon missions to investigate the cloud layer. The entry mass for these in-situ missions will be significantly higher, and the aeroshell will be larger, than previous missions. Two cardinal requirements govern the selection and use of thermal protection systems (TPS), namely, robustness to assure mission safety during entry and mass efficiency so that the useful mass for science is maximized. One cannot trade mission safety for mass when it comes to TPS. The robustness of the TPS is a paramount requirement as it is a single point of system failure. At the same time, TPS mass is carried for the entire mission duration prior to entry, and any excess TPS mass is at the cost of science payload. Future missions will benefit enormously from TPS options with mass and performance benefits far beyond advanced carbon-carbon (ACC) that is currently proposed for the DAVINCI mission. NASA STMD, and SMD jointly invested in the development of 3-D woven thermal protection systems in the last decade, and as a result, the Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) TPS has been matured to TRL 6. It is ready for future mission use including Venus. The HEEET project focused on developing a broad technology base, applicable for missions not only to Venus, but also to Saturn, the Ice Giants, and higher speed sample return missions such as Mars Sample Return requiring extreme robustness due to bio-hazards. The dual-layer HEEET (DL-HEEET) is proven to be extremely robust. DL-HEEET performed well in arc jet and laser testing conditions where heritage carbon-phenolic failed. HEEET also proved to be more mass efficient compared to Carbon-Phenolic. Recently, the principal author was invited to present his perspectives to the 2023-2032 Planetary Sciences Decadal Venus subcommittee on the current state of TPS for future Venus missions [1]. In addition to pointing out successful TPS and other developments in the last decade in support of entry systems, the principal author made two findings: 1) importance of and need to sustain TPS capabilities that took nearly a decade to develop and 2) the opportunity to further optimize TPS mass without sacrificing robustness to further enable future in-situ missions. This talk will focus on the above two recommendations and provide the rationale for them. The intent of the talk is to seek advocacy from the VEXAG community for the criticality of TPS sustainment and the benefits of 3D woven TPS optimization. TPS Capability Sustainment: HEEET development was necessitated by the atrophy of heritage carbon-phenolic. Atrophy has impacted other TPS materials as well. Avcoat, the TPS that successfully allowed astronauts to explore the Moon in the 1960s and 70s, took nearly a decade and $10’sM to recover in support of Orion/Artemis. One of the most used TPS materials, SLA 561V, had to be recovered prior to its use on Mars Pathfinder. Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), the TPS that replaced SLA 561V on MSL, has undergone multiple replacements and recovery due to constituent rayon changes. Recently, NASA invested in a domestic rayon replacement program and also invested in FMI to consolidate PICA capability for NASA missions, as a result of FMI’s decision to discontinue commercial FiberForm, which is needed for PICA. TPS used for planetary missions are unique and have no other commercial or defense use. In addition, low mission cadence is also a driver for TPS atrophy. Hence, NASA, as the steward, must take steps to ensure and sustain TPS capabilities. In this talk, we outline steps NASA can take to keep abreast of emerging risks and target risk mitigation steps to ensure TPS capability sustainment for Venus and other extreme environment missions. Next Generation of Mass efficient and Robust TPS: NASA invested in an alternate TPS to PICA based on felt-technology called Conformal-PICA which has the potential to save 30% - 50% mass over PICA. The development was discontinued at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of ~ 5. 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) is a single layer variant of HEEET, based on the insulating layer only (SL-HEEET) and currently baselined for the Mars Sample Return Mission Earth Entry System due to its mass efficiency (30% more mass efficient than DL- HEEET). Currently, SL-HEEET is limited to aeroshell diameters of < 1.3m. The SL-HEEET was compared to DL-HEEET in the recent ADVENT flag-ship class mission study in support of the Planetary Science Decadal. SL HEEET was the recommended TPS based on 30% mass savings for both the balloon and lander missions. Given C-PICA and SL-HEEET have superior reliability and mass efficiency, advocacy from VEXAG is sought for completing their further development to TRL 5/6 in this decade so as to enable TPS readiness for future missions.

Thermal Protection Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Critical Ablative TPS Capabilities Sustainment for Future NASA Missions

We plan to present an approach for NASA to maintain critical ablative TPS capabilities through small, sus-tained, smart and targeted investment. Historically, we have been pound foolish and penny wise for decades and paid very little attention to sustainability of abla-tive TPS and as a result, spent couple of decades in learning what we lost and inventing newer technology solutions. NASA’s ablative TPS history has been one of in-vesting in new and unique capabilities in anticipation of needs, and once flight proven, letting the capability atrophy due to lack of subsequent near-term mission needs [1]. When the need arises, NASA has resorted to two options: (1) revive the capability at considerable cost impact, or (2) develop an alternate capability with considerable schedule impact. Both these options have had considerable mission impact. The third alternate is to maintain proven capabilities in a cost effective manner. A risk informed decision process in terms of maintaining ablative TPS capabilities is feasible with planning and sustained support. Assured TPS availa-bility will allow the science community to propose competed missions with confidence and at a lower risk for selection. We submitted a white paper to the cur-rent Decadal Survey [2] on the need for and im-portance of sustainability. Since then, we have been formulating an executable cost effective strategy. The intent of this presentation is to outline the develop-ments since the submission of the white paper. NASA and DoD have had a working group related to critical technologies to periodically assess and make recommendations on at-risk items from a national need perspective. This inter-agency working group typically focuses on raw materials availability. While we agree that at-risk raw materials are important, fo-cus solely on them is not sufficient. Instead, we advo-cate for a broader focus that includes not only raw material but also industrial manufacturing and processing, and NASA expertise in design, testing and flight hardware certification. In this proposed presentation, we will give a brief overview of NASA’s ablative TPS history along with recent examples of atrophy to highlight case studies related to the PICA and Carbon-Phenolic TPS. We will present the rationale for sustaining PICA, HEEET and 3MDCP for future NASA missions. We will present an approach for how targeted small investments could lead to maintaining mission critical capabilities over long periods.

E Venkatapathy↗
NASA NTRS2009

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Valentine, Mark↗