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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. In this work, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand

While the traditional facility location problem considers exogenous demand, in some applications, locations of facilities could affect the willingness of customers to use certain types of services, e.g., carsharing, and therefore they also affect realizations of random demand. Moreover, a decision maker may not know the exact distribution of such endogenous demand and how it is affected by location choices. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust facility location problem, in which we interpret the moments of stochastic demand as functions of facility-location decisions. We reformulate a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model as a monolithic formulation, and then derive exact mixed-integer linear programming reformulation as well as valid inequalities when the means and variances of demand are piecewise linear functions of location solutions. We conduct extensive computational studies, in which we compare our model with a decision-dependent deterministic model, as well as stochastic programming and distributionally robust models without the decision-dependent assumption. Here, the results show superior performance of our approach with remarkable improvement in profit and quality of service under various settings, in addition to computational speed-ups given by formulation enhancements. These results draw attention to the need of considering the impact of location decisions on customer demand within this strategic-level planning problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A model for selecting the best sustainable airport technology alternatives

Air transport is a continually expanding industry, a fact that has become even more evident with the recovery of the aviation industry post-COVID-19. This expansion amplified energy consumption at airports, which was already significantly high. Airport decision-makers are increasingly focusing on improving sustainability and addressing social, economic, and environmental criteria across airports worldwide. In this article, we propose a decision-making model for identifying a sustainable airport technology solution that minimizes the energy consumption of airport lighting while considering economic, emission, and life-cycle criteria. The proposed model combines data envelopment analysis and multi-criteria decision making techniques. We applied the model to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) as a case study, considering eight lighting technology solutions, each with five luminous flux alternatives. Our model identified the best lighting technology solution for DFW outdoor and indoor environments based on the following criteria: luminous flux, capital costs, life-cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions (CO2e, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5). The designed model is customizable to any airport and is applicable to a wide range of airport lighting technologies. In our analysis, Light-Emitting Diode lighting emerged as the most sustainable technology option. It ranked first in most cases due to its balance of high efficacy, long lifespan, low life-cycle cost, low capital cost, and lower emissions across all pollutants.

Tchivwila, Moise B↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decisions and coordination of retailer-led low-carbon supply chain under altruistic preference

A low-carbon supply chain formed by a dominant retailer and a small and medium-sized manufacturer (SMM) is considered. Because the SMM faces the high cost pressure of adopting carbon emission reduction (CER) technologies, the retailer may take an altruistic preference for the long-term sustainability of the chain. Three decision-making models, centralized, decentralized without altruistic preference, and decentralized with altruistic preference, are constructed to compare decisions and profits of both parties. Since neither decentrailized models can lead to a coordinated solution that is incentive compitable, a coordination contract, referred to as the cost sharing contract with altruistic preference, is proposed. Numerical study shows that the altruistic preference can help increase the SMM's profit and system efficiency but decrease the retailer's profit. The coordination contract requires the retailer to adjust the unit profit and share more than half of the CER cost. Finally, it is found that the wholesale price is the lowest in the coordination contract and the comparison of unit profit depends on the coefficient of CER cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Social Dynamics of Hard-Disk Drives Circularity with an Agent-Based Approach

By 2025, it is estimated that installed data storage in the U.S. will be 2.2 Zettabytes, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. The circular economy (CE) tackles waste issues by maximizing value retention in the economy, for instance, through reuse and recycling. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is hindered by the lack of trust organizations have toward other means of data removal than physically destroying HDDs. Here, an agent-based approach explores how organizations' decisions to adopt other data removal means affect HDDs' circularity. The model applies the theory of planned behavior to model the decisions of HDDs end-users. Results demonstrate that the attitude (which is affected by trust) of end-users toward data-wiping technologies acts as a barrier to reuse. Moreover, social pressure can play a significant role as organizations that adopt CE behaviors can set an example for others.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Social Dynamics of Hard-Disk Drives Circularity with an Agent-Based Approach: Preprint

By 2025, it is estimated that installed data storage in the US will be 2.2 Zettabytes, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. The circular economy tackles waste issues by maximizing value retention in the economy, for instance, through reuse and recycling. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is hindered by the lack of trust organizations have toward other means of data removal than physically destroying HDDs. Here, an agent-based approach explores how organizations’ decisions to adopt other data removal means affect HDDs circularity. The model applies the theory of planned behaviour to model the decisions of HDDs end-users. Results demonstrate that the attitude (which is affected by trust) of end-users toward data-wiping technologies acts as a barrier to reuse. Moreover, social pressure can play a significant role as organizations that adopt CE behaviours can set an example for others.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying co-benefits of water quality policies: An integrated assessment model of land and nitrogen management

Due to the nature of nitrogen cycling, policies designed to address water quality concerns have the potential to provide benefits beyond the targeted water quality improvements. For example, actions to protect water quality by reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture also reduce emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. These positive effects, which are incidental to the regulation's intended target, are termed “co-benefits.” To quantify the co-benefits associated with reduced nitrate leaching, we integrate an economic model of farmer decision making with a model of terrestrial nitrogen cycling for the watershed surrounding Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Our modeling approach provides a framework that links air and water pollutants in an agri-environmental system and offers a direction for future studies. Our model results highlight the finding that the co-benefits from nitrous oxide abatement are substantial, and their inclusion increases the benefit–cost ratio of water quality policies. Consideration of these co-benefits has the potential to reverse the conclusions of benefit–cost analysis in the assessment of current water quality policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Value of Information App (Value of Information App for Binary Geothermal Decisions and Binary Geothermal Possibilities) (Negative/Positive) [SWR-25-15]

Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney [National Renewable Energ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for global cyber-attack or fault detection model

An industrial asset may have monitoring nodes that generate current monitoring node values representing a current operation of the industrial asset. An abnormality detection computer may detect when a monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing a fault based on a current feature vector, calculated in accordance with current monitoring node values, and a detection model that includes a decision boundary. A model updater (e.g., a continuous learning model updater) may determine an update time-frame (e.g., short-term, mid-term, long-term, etc.) associated with the system based on trigger occurrence detection (e.g., associated with a time-based trigger, a performance-based trigger, an event-based trigger, etc.). The model updater may then update the detection model in accordance with the determined update time-frame (and, in some embodiments, continuous learning).

Xu, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science

In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.

Preston, Victoria↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supervised Learning for Distribution Secondary Systems Modeling: Improving Solar Interconnection Processes

The current interconnection process and hosting capacity analysis for distributed energy resources (DERs), such as photovoltaics (PV) and battery energy storage systems, are based on analyzing grid network constraints (voltage and thermal) using only medium-voltage distribution network models. This is because most utilities do not have secondary low-voltage system models that connect service transformers and residential customers. This is important because in many cases the main impact of interconnecting DERs could occur on the low-voltage distribution systems. This paper proposes a supervised learning method to approximate local secondary models to improve the interconnection process. The proposed supervised learning method includes a decision tree model that predicts the secondary topology and a logistic regression model that predicts conductor types. The case studies demonstrate the benefits of including secondary low-voltage circuits in the interconnection process. We report the proposed modeling methodology is readily scalable and thus can reduce the cost and effort of PV interconnection for the industry and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models: Preprint

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models for computationally expensive simulations, users can interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the integration of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble visualization↗