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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Travel Decision Survey - San Francisco - 2017

On behalf of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Corey, Canapary & Galanis undertook a Travel Decision Survey within the City and County of San Francisco, as well as the eight surrounding Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. The primary goals of this study were to: 1. Assess percent mode share for travel in San Francisco for evaluation of the SFMTA Strategic Objective 2.3: Mode Share target of 50% non-private auto travel by FY 2018 with a 95% confidence level and margin of error ±5% or less. 2. Evaluate the above statement based on number of trips to, from, and within San Francisco by Bay Area residents. Trips by visitors to the Bay Area and for commercial purposes are not included. 3. Provide additional trip details, including trip purpose for each trip in the mode-share question series. 4. Collect demographic data on the population of Bay Area residents who travel to, from, and within San Francisco. 5. Collect data on travel behavior and opinions that support other SFMTA strategy and project evaluation needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Repowering and Lifecycle Decisions with PV ICE and SAM

Should you repower or extend the life of your PV system? Are high-efficiency modules, durable modules, or recyclable modules the best option for your site and goals? Evaluating the trade-offs in design and lifecycle strategies can be complex. The PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool is an open-source model designed to help developers, modelers, and decision-makers assess material flows, energy return on investment (EROI), and financial viability of PV systems. Now integrated with the System Advisor Model (SAM), PV ICE enables site-specific comparisons of lifecycle strategies - such as repowering benefits, module selection for reliability and recyclability, among others. This interactive tutorial will provide hands-on experience with PV ICE using Google Collab, exploring scenario-based analyses on these topics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1): A New Decision Support Tool for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Solar thermal technologies are a promising technology to supply low-cost thermal energy to industrial processes, but there are often significant barriers to entry to industrial owners considering these technologies for their energy demands. To overcome this barrier and convey economic value to customers, NREL and Sandia National Laboratories developed Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1), a new web-based decision support tool for solar industrial process heat systems. At SolarPACES 2024, the STEP 1 tool was still under development; progress, methodologies, and a preliminary case study was presented. With the STEP 1 tool launch in May 2025, in this work, the initial version of the full public tool will be presented with demonstrations of its capabilities using a few case studies. First, the user's process heat needs such as location, process media (e.g., steam, air), process temperature, land availability, electricity and fuel costs, among other parameters. STEP 1 features a mapping interface that allows users to draw land and roof boundaries. The process media and temperature inform technology selection criteria modules that determine the appropriate solar thermal collection technologies, as well as congruent heat transfer media (e.g., hot water, oil, salt). Once the solar thermal technology selected, its nominal thermal production for the given site is characterized using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). Then, a modified version of NREL's REopt optimal sizing and dispatch optimization tool determines cost-optimal sizing. Within minutes, the user receives the results of the technoeconomics analysis, including the size and performance of the cost-optimal solar-plus-storage system. The cost of the system is compared to business-as-usual (e.g., an existing, standalone natural gas boiler). Users can download key results to store for sensitivity analyses. Examples of flat plate collector, parabolic trough, and molten salt tower applications with and without PV hybridization for different industrial facility types are presented in this work. The STEP 1 tool aims to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar heating solutions stemming from a lack of familiarity and technical background with solar system design options and costs among industry stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision Points and Practical Considerations for AI Projects

In this presentation, I will present business-relevant decisions, risks, and considerations for practical implementations of AI projects. I will use energy efficiency and renewable energy AI projects at NREL as examples and case-studies highlighting the journey from concept to implementation. First, I present challenges, questions, and trade-offs related to system inputs: the data. Next, I will examine issues with system behavior and trust, presenting examples, risks, and mitigation strategies. Finally, I will discuss challenges to effective widespread deployment of AI systems including energy, compute, and time requirements.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Informing Cybersecurity Decisions

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework is a tool that can be used by hydropower plant manager to make more educated cybersecurity investments. Users can take a self guided assessment allowing the tools to generate risk, impact and cybersecurity scores and be given risk-based recommendations to enhance decision-making.

CVF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Decision Trees for Tensor Regressions

Here, we proposed the tensor-input tree (TT) method for scalar-on-tensor and tensor-on-tensor regression problems. We first address scalar-on-tensor problem by proposing scalar-output regression tree models whose input variables are tensors (i.e., multi-way arrays). We devised and implemented fast randomized and deterministic algorithms for efficient fitting of scalar-on-tensor trees, making TT competitive against tensor-input GP models (Yu, Li, and Liu; Sun et al.). Based on scalar-on-tensor tree models, we extend our method to tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches. Theoretical justification and extensive experiments, including testing robustness to entrywise input tensor noise, are provided on real and synthetic datasets to illustrate the performance of TT. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/hrluo/TensorDecisionTreeRegressor. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Decision tree regressions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 2

This revision was prepared to document changes to the data-collection activities. Specifically, the drilling and completion of the wells have been revised, and enhancements to the surface geophysics measurements have been included. Corrective action is needed because underground radioactive contamination exists in these areas resulting from historic underground nuclear testing. The PM CAUs are located in the northwestern portion of the Nevada National Security Site and comprise 82 corrective action sites. A total of 85 underground nuclear detonations took place within the area covered by the PM CAUs between 1965 and 1992 and resulted in the release of radionuclides in the subsurface in the vicinity of the test cavities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaic Decision Tools for Perennial and Field Crop Farmers

This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗