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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Data optimization for large batch distributed training of deep neural networks

Distributed training in deep learning (DL) is common practice as data and models grow. The current practice for distributed training of deep neural networks faces the challenges of communication bottlenecks when operating at scale, and model accuracy deterioration with an increase in global batch size. Present solutions focus on improving message exchange efficiency as well as implementing techniques to tweak batch sizes and models in the training process. The loss of training accuracy typically happens because the loss function gets trapped in a local minima. We observe that the loss landscape minimization is shaped by both the model and training data and propose a data optimization approach that utilizes machine learning to implicitly smooth out the loss landscape resulting in fewer local minima. Our approach filters out data points which are less important to feature learning, enabling us to speed up the training of models on larger batch sizes to improved accuracy.

Gahlot, Shubhankar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open Power System Datasets and Open Simulation Engines: A Survey Toward Machine Learning Applications

A major factor behind the success of machine learning (ML) models in multiple domains is the availability and accessibility of large, labeled, and well-organized datasets for training and benchmarking. In comparison, power grid datasets face three major challenges: (i) real-world data is often restricted by regulatory constraints, privacy reasons, or security concerns, making it difficult to obtain and work with; (ii) synthetic datasets, which are created to address these limitations, often have incomplete information and are released using specialized tools, making them inaccessible to the broader community; and, (iii) input-output datasets are difficult to generate through simulation for non-experts because open-source simulators are not known outside the power system community. This survey addresses these challenges by serving as an entry point to publicly available datasets and simulators for researchers venturing in this area. We review the current landscape of open-source power network data, machine models, consumer demand profiles, renewable generation data, and inverter models. We also examine open-source power system simulators, which are crucial for generating high-quality, high-fidelity power grid datasets. We aim to provide a foundation for overcoming data scarcity and advance towards a structured web of datasets and simulators to support the development of ML for power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The LCLStream Ecosystem for Multi-Institutional Dataset Exploration

We describe a new end-to-end experimental data streaming framework designed from the ground up to support new types of applications – AI training, extremely high-rate X-ray time-of-flight analysis, crystal structure determination with distributed processing, and custom data science applications and visualizers yet to be created. Throughout, we use design choices merging cloud microservices with traditional HPC batch execution models for security and flexibility. This project makes a unique contribution to the DOE Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) landscape. By creating a flexible, API-driven data request service, we address a significant need for high-speed data streaming sources for the X-ray science data analysis community. With the combination of data request API, mutual authentication web security framework, job queue system, high-rate data buffer, and complementary nature to facility infrastructure, the LCLStreamer framework has prototyped and implemented several new paradigms critical for future generation experiments.

Rogers, David [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000251871768)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of Sahul

Archaeological data and demographic modelling suggest that the peopling of Sahul required substantial populations, occurred rapidly within a few thousand years and encompassed environments ranging from hyper-arid deserts to temperate uplands and tropical rainforests. How this migration occurred and how humans responded to the physical environments they encountered have, however, remained largely speculative. By constructing a high-resolution digital elevation model for Sahul and coupling it with fine-scale viewshed analysis of landscape prominence, least-cost pedestrian travel modelling and high-performance computing, here we create over 125 billion potential migratory pathways, whereby the most parsimonious routes traversed emerge. Our analysis revealed several major pathways—superhighways—transecting the continent, that we evaluated using archaeological data. These results suggest that the earliest Australian ancestors adopted a set of fundamental rules shaped by physiological capacity, attraction to visually prominent landscape features and freshwater distribution to maximize survival, even without previous experience of the landscapes they encountered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planning green infrastructure placement based on projected precipitation data

Continued urbanization has led to tremendous changes on the landscape. These changes have exacerbated the effects of extreme climatic events such as flooding because of constrained water infiltration and increased surface flow. Typical runoff control measures involve sophisticated gray infrastructure that guide excess surface flow into storage and disposal sites. In a dynamic climate system, these measures are not sustainable since they cannot be easily modified to accommodate large volumes of runoff. Green Infrastructure (GI) is an adaptable technique that can be used to minimize runoff, in addition to offering an array of additional benefits (urban heat regulation, aesthetics, improved air quality etc.). Strategic placement of GI is key to achieving maximum utility. While physical site characteristics play a major role in determining suitable GI placement sites, knowledge of future precipitation patterns is crucial to ensure successful flood mitigation. Here, suitable GI sites within the city of Knoxville, Tennessee, were determined based on potential impact of an extreme flood event as indicated by site characteristics. Then, the relative potential likelihood of a flood event was determined based on projected precipitation data and knowledge of existing flood zones. By combining potential impact with likelihood information, low, medium, and high priority GI implementation sites were established. Results indicate that high priority sites are in the central parts of the city with priority decreasing outward. The GI prioritization scheme presented here, offers valuable guidance to city planners and policy makers who wish to exploit the GI approach for flood mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Channel Dual Staging: Hierarchical and Portable Staging for GPU-Based In-Situ Workflow

In-situ workflows have emerged as an attractive approach for addressing data movement challenges at very large scales. Since GPU-based architectures dominate the HPC landscapes, porting these in-situ workflows, and, specifically, the inter-application data exchange, to GPU-based systems can be challenging. Technologies such as GPUDirect RDMA (GDR), which is typically used for I/O in GPU applications as an optimization that circumvents the CPU overhead, can be leveraged to support bulk data exchanges between GPU applications. However, current GDR design often lacks performance portability across HPC clusters built with different hardware configurations. Furthermore, the local CPU may also be effectively used as an auxiliary communication mechanism to offload data exchanges. In this paper, we present a dual channel dual staging approach for efficient, scalable, and performance-portable inter-application data exchange for in-situ workflows. This approach exploits the data access pattern within in-situ workflows along with the inherent execution asynchrony to accelerate data exchanges and, at the same time, improve performance portability. Specifically, the dual channel dual staging method leverages both the local CPU and the remote data staging server to build a hierarchical joint staging area and uses this staging area to transform blocking inter-application bulk data exchanges into best-effort local data movements between GPU and CPU. The dual channel dual staging is implemented as a portability extension of the Dataspaces-GPU staging framework. We present an experimental evaluation of its performance, portability, and scalability using this implementation on three leadership GPU clusters. The evaluation results demonstrate that the dual channel dual staging method saves up to 75% in data-exchange time compared to host-based, GDR, and alternate portable designs, while maintaining scalability (up to 512 GPUs) and performance portability across the three platforms.

Zhang, Bo [University of Utah]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil properties and root characteristics across four lowland Panamanian forests from 0 - 1 m soil depths

Objectives:Fine roots significantly influence ecosystem-scale cycling of nutrients, carbon (C), and water, yet there is limited understanding of how fine root traits vary across and within tropical forests, some of Earth's most C-rich ecosystems. The biomass of fine roots can impact soil carbon storage, as root mortality is a primary source of new carbon to soils. A positive relationship has been observed between fine root biomass and soil carbon stocks in Panama (Cusack et al 2018). Beyond biomass, root characteristics like specific root length (SRL) could also influence soil carbon, as roots with higher SRL are less dense and thinner, potentially decomposing more easily or promoting soil aggregation. Understanding the effects of root morphology and tissue quality on soil carbon storage and with soil properties in general can improve predictions of landscape-scale carbon patterns. We aggregated new data of root biomass, morphology and nutrient content at 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm and 50-100 cm depth increments across four distinct lowland Panamanian forests and paired with already published datasets (Cusack et al 2018; Cusack and Turner 2020) of soil chemistry from the same sites and soil depths to explore relationship between soil carbon stocks and root characteristics.Datasets included:The datasets provided include .csv and .xlsx files for fine root characteristics and soil chemistry from four different forests across 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm, and 50-100 cm depth increments. Root characteristics include live fine root biomass, dead fine root biomass, coarse root biomass, specific root length, root diameter, root tissue density, specific root area, root %N, root %C, and root C/N ratio. Soil chemistry data includes total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), bulk density, total phosphorus (TP), available phosphorus (AEM Pi), and various Mehlich-extractable elements such as aluminum, calcium, iron, potassium, manganese, phosphorus, and zinc. Nitrogen content measures include ammonium, nitrate, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). The dataset also includes total exchangeable bases (TEB) and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) in both centimoles of charge per kilogram and micromoles of charge per gram. The soil chemistry data was obtained from Cusack et al (2018) and Cusack and Turner (2020) and paired with root characteristics data for the same depth increments and sites. Additionally, a .kml file is provided with coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study across four forests (n = 8 plots per site). Root data was averaged across these 8 plots per site and soil data was collected in one pit in each site. This dataset serves as baseline data before a throughfall exclusion experiment, Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED), was implemented. No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cybersecurity Standards for Distributed Energy Resources: Gaps and Harmonization Strategy

This report examines cybersecurity standards for Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in light of their rapid growth and increasing integration into energy systems. It identifies critical gaps in existing frameworks, including inadequate coverage of DER-specific challenges, complexities in implementing comprehensive standards, integration issues with legacy systems, adoption hurdles for newer standards, and a lack of harmonization across regulatory landscapes. The analysis highlights vulnerabilities such as data integrity risks, unauthorized device control, and denial-of-service attacks across various DER technologies like solar PV, wind turbines, energy storage systems, and hydrogen fuel cells. The report proposes a harmonization strategy to address these deficiencies by developing unified cybersecurity requirements, certification programs, and training resources while fostering collaboration among stakeholders such as government agencies, industry groups, DER operators, manufacturers, and research institutions. A phased roadmap is outlined to refine and implement these measures through pilot testing and widespread adoption. Ultimately, the report underscores the urgent need for coordinated efforts to enhance DER cybersecurity and ensure the reliable operation of future energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass Computational Frontier: Topical Group Report on Experimental Algorithm Parallelization

The substantial increase in data volume and complexity expected from future experiments will require significant investment to prepare experimental algorithms. These algorithms include physics object reconstruction, calibrations, and processing of observational data. In addition, the changing computing architecture landscape, which will be primarily composed of heterogeneous resources, will continue to pose major challenges with regard to algorithmic migration. Portable tools need to be developed that can be shared among the frontiers (e.g., for code execution on different platforms) and opportunities, such as forums or cross-experimental working groups, need to be provided where experiences and lessons learned can be shared between experiments and frontiers. At the same time, individual experiments also need to invest considerable resources to develop algorithms unique to their needs (e.g., for facilities dedicated to the experiment), and ensure that their specific algorithms will be able to efficiently exploit external heterogeneous computing facilities. Common software tools represent a cost-effective solution, providing ready-to-use software solutions as well as a platform for R&D work. These are particularly important for small experiments which typically do not have dedicated resources needed to face the challenges imposed by the evolving computing technologies. Workforce development is a key concern across frontiers and experiments, and additional support is needed to provide career opportunities for researchers working in the field of experimental algorithm development. Finally, cross-discipline collaborations going beyond high-energy physics are a key ingredient to address the challenges ahead and more support for such collaborations needs to be created. This report targets future experiments, observations and experimental algorithm development for the next 10-15 years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A kinetic-based regularization method for data science applications

We propose a physics-based regularization technique for function learning, inspired by statistical mechanics. By drawing an analogy between optimizing the parameters of an interpolator and minimizing the energy of a system, we introduce corrections that impose constraints on the lower-order moments of the data distribution. This minimizes the discrepancy between the discrete and continuum representations of the data, in turn allowing to access more favorable energy landscapes, thus improving the accuracy of the interpolator. Our approach improves performance in both interpolation and regression tasks, even in high-dimensional spaces. Unlike traditional methods, it does not require empirical parameter tuning, making it particularly effective for handling noisy data. We also show that thanks to its local nature, the method offers computational and memory efficiency advantages over Radial Basis Function interpolators, especially for large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying Rate of Fire Spread Using Landscape Statistics and FIRETEC

Wildfires are multi-system and multi-scale processes that are influenced by the land and atmosphere. Here, we study the influence of land, in terms of topography and vegetation, on uphill and downhill fire spread using data of the state of California as a testbed. The California landscape is first quantified by reclassifying its dominant vegetation types into grass, trees, and shrubs. Next, statistics of slope, vegetation height, and live fuel moisture percentage for each dominant vegetation type are gathered to create ensembles of idealized computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model simulations representative of the landscape. Rate of spread values for each CFD simulation are recorded to observe the differences in perturbing slope and fuel moisture for each vegetation type. We have found that all vegetation types prefer slopes of less than 30 degrees. Trees in the California data are 10 to 40 meters high, whereas shrub heights are less than 3 meters and grass heights are less than 1 meter. The live fuel moisture percentage of both trees and shrubs fluctuates around approximately 100% over one year (2019-2020). Using these parameters as inputs into the CFD model, fire spread rate is found to be fastest in the grass ensemble (maximum 12 m s -1 ), followed by shrubs (maximum 10 m s -1 ) and lastly by trees (maximum 7 m s -1 ). Increasing slope increases the spread rate of the uphill fire but the downhill spread decreases for slopes greater than 15 degrees. Increasing fuel moisture decreases the spread rate both up and down the hill. This study highlights the impacts that topography and vegetation have on fire spread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Energy Market Schedules using Historical Price Data

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets creates uncertainty as well as new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. The proposed algorithm is approximately 100 times faster and uses orders of magnitude less data than a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗