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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time

Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3–10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. Here, we found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Material Model Parameters Optimization in Liquid Mercury Target Dynamics Simulation With Machine Learning Surrogates

A pulsed spallation target is subjected to very short (∼0.7μs) but intense loads (23.3 kJ) from repeated proton pulses, which knock away neutrons from the mercury atoms’ nuclei for a wide range application in physics, engineering, medicine, petroleum exploration, biology, chemistry, etc. The effect of this pulsed loading on the stainless-steel target module which contains the flowing mercury target material is difficult to predict not only due to its short but intense explosive-like physical reaction, but also the nonlinear material behavior of the liquid mercury in the structure. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at high power level stage. However, prediction of the resultant loading on the target is more difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. A parameter sensitivity study was firstly employed to understand their impact on the simulation strains. The investigated parameters included E, μ, γ, σ, n, VFgas, and gas cumulative volume curve control parameters a and b. Verification and validation results from sparse polynomial expansions (SPE) method and directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) optimization show that the surrogate model had training error of ∼7% and validation error of ∼15%, indicating that machine learning methods and surrogate models can help optimize the uncertain parameters in the complex 2-phase material model. This approach is expected to fill the knowledge gap between unknown liquid-gas mixture material model and measured vessel strain responses.

Lin, Lianshan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Storm and Annual Time Scale Hydrological Data for the Russian River Watershed 1996-2022

These files contains observed and simulated hydrological data (discharge, precipitation) that have been aggregated to the storm-event scale and to the annual time scale for the Russian River Watershed (RRW), California. Observed data are obtained from 12 different USGS hydrological stations located throughout the watershed, and discharge is simulated using the GR5H hourly hydrological model. Precipitation data are obtained from the NASA NLDAS NOAH Community Land Surface Model. All simulated and observed discharge are aggregated to the storm and annual time scales. We investigated changes in watershed hydrological conditions in the Russian River Watershed, a Mediterranean, drought prone, wildfire-adapted ecosystem, following eleven wildfires that occurred from 2017-2020. We ask two research questions: 1) How do interacting wildfire events, drought, and atmospheric rivers impact hydrological conditions of the watershed and in particular streamflow?, and 2) What percentage of new and/or cumulative wildfire disturbance is required to initiate hydrological change? We hypothesize that sub-watersheds of the RRW Mediterranean ecoregion have not burned beyond an intrinsic, and still unknown, threshold required to initiate change. Using a series of paired burned/unburned catchments nested within the larger watershed, we examined temporal and spatial patterns of pre-and-post wildfire water hydrology using a rainfall runoff hydrological model compared with data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the carbon capture potential of industrial waste as a feedstock for enhanced weathering

Abstract Limiting anthropogenic global climate warming since the start of the industrial period to less than 2 °C will very likely require both deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and a range of approaches toward carbon dioxide removal (CDR). One prominent CDR approach is enhanced weathering (EW), in which crushed silicate rock is applied on land or in the open ocean to accelerate natural weathering processes that absorb carbon dioxide from Earth’s ocean–atmosphere system. However, in addition to a range of potential environmental, socioeconomic, and ethical issues associated with this pathway, bottlenecks in feedstock sourcing represent a key barrier for deployment of EW at scale. Here, we evaluate the potential of silicate wastes produced from industrial processes—such as steel slag and cement waste—as feedstocks for the EW process. An empirical model that links industrial alkaline waste production to gross domestic product at purchase power parity is developed to forecast waste production in the alternative futures described by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) framework. By incorporating these results into an intermediate-complexity Earth system model, we also explore the impacts of EW using industrial waste on changes to global temperature, ocean pH, and ocean aragonite saturation state, while also quantifying overall CDR efficiency through the end of the century. We estimate a maximum cumulative end-of-century capture potential of ∼400 GtCO 2 for industrial waste, which could represent a significant fraction of the projected CDR requirement of many mitigation scenarios in the SSP framework. However, feedstock-dependent environmental impacts and the technoeconomics of feedstock redistribution may ultimately limit deployment scope.

Xu, Pengxiao (ORCID:0009000633724293)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking international technical specifications for acoustic characterization of marine energy converter sounds with environmental compliance criteria

As new ocean energy technologies emerge and are deployed for testing and operations, sound emissions are a potential concern for environmental effects to marine life. Consistent acoustic measurement and data analysis methods can help promote comparisons of technologies and transferability between project sites. In 2022, acoustic emissions from a prototype scale wave energy converter (WEC) were characterized for a range of environmental conditions and power generation states in the coastal waters off southern California using a set of international technical specifications. Results from the international technical specification analyses were applied to United States regulatory threshold criteria for acoustic impacts to marine mammals and examined in the context of European underwater noise monitoring guidelines. Weighted 24 hour cumulative sound exposure levels SEL24h calculated from the highest power generation state WEC sound pressure levels were often more than 20 dB below threshold criteria for temporary threshold shifts in five relevant marine mammal hearing groups. Following European Union recommendations for analyses and reporting, WEC sound characterization in third octave bands centered at 63 Hz and 125 Hz show clear spatial decay of WEC-generated noise, with more pronounced attenuation at 63 Hz, and a less marked but still detectable gradient at 125 Hz, collectively suggesting a relatively confined acoustic footprint under the observed conditions. The value of the international technical specification approach is highlighted by the isolation of WEC sounds from the surrounding soundscape. This allows for a robust characterization of acoustic emissions through a range of device power generation and sea states. Furthermore, in threshold-based regulatory contexts like the U.S., this facilitates direct evaluation of source contributions, while in broader monitoring frameworks used in the E.U. it provides a reproducible foundation for assessing the contribution of emerging ocean energy technologies to the underwater acoustic environment.

Haxel, Joseph H. (ORCID:0000000273864761)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Low Dose Space Radiation Exposures on the Splenic Metabolome

Future space missions will include a return to the Moon and long duration deep space roundtrip missions to Mars. Leaving the protection that Low Earth Orbit provides will unavoidably expose astronauts to higher cumulative doses of space radiation, in addition to other stressors, e.g., microgravity. Immune regulation is known to be impacted by both radiation and spaceflight and it remains to be seen whether prolonged effects that will be encountered in deep space can have an adverse impact on health. In this study, we investigated the effects in the overall metabolism of three different low dose radiation exposures (γ-rays, 16O, and 56Fe) in spleens from male C57BL/6 mice at 1, 2, and 4 months after exposure. Forty metabolites were identified with significant enrichment in purine metabolism, tricarboxylic acid cycle, fatty acids, acylcarnitines, and amino acids. Early perturbations were more prominent in the γ irradiated samples, while later responses shifted towards more prominent responses in groups with high energy particle irradiations. Regression analysis showed a positive correlation of the abundance of identified fatty acids with time and a negative association with γ-rays, while the degradation pathway of purines was positively associated with time. Taken together, there is a strong suggestion of mitochondrial implication and the possibility of long-term effects on DNA repair and nucleotide pools following radiation exposure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Degradation of Anion Exchange Membranes by Cation Elimination: Impact on Water Uptake, Nanostructure, and Ionic Mobility

Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) are an attractive platform for fuel cell and electrolysis technologies since they enable the use of cheaper, nonplatinum group metal electrodes and components. However, the widespread adoption of AEM-based devices is limited by chemical degradation of the AEM in the highly alkaline medium of operation. Experimental studies report three major pathways of degradation, including substitution (S N 2), elimination (E2), and backbone cleavage. The decline in membrane performance is likely due to a cumulative effect of several pathways, which has proven to be difficult to disentangle through experiments. Here we use coarse-grained molecular simulations to isolate the impact of E2 degradation, where cationic sites are replaced by an alkene group, on AEM water uptake, nanoscale morphology, structure of the ion-conducting channels, water mobility, and ionic conductivity. Our studies focus on the well-studied model AEM polyphenylene oxide with tetraalkylammonium cationic sites (PPO-TMA). We find that about half of the hydrophobic groups resulting from the degradation retract into the hydrophobic domains of the membrane. The reduction in ion exchange capacity (IEC) and the hydrophobicity of the alkene groups decrease both the equilibrium water uptake (%WU) and the number of water molecules per cation (λ) of the membrane. Interestingly, the evolution of λ with the IEC seems to follow that of undegraded PPO-TMA membranes. Additionally, we ascribe this to the similarity between the structure of the degraded monomer and the neutral one in the polymer. We conclude that most of the performance losses originate in the lower hydration of the degraded membrane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Associations between cumulative environmental quality and ten selected birth defects in Texas

Abstract Background Causes of most birth defects are largely unknown. Genetics, maternal factors (e.g., age, smoking) and environmental exposures have all been linked to some birth defects, including neural tube, oral cleft, limb reduction, and gastroschisis; however, the contribution of cumulative exposures across several environmental domains in association with these defects is not well understood. Methods The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its domains (air, water, land, sociodemographic, built) were used to estimate county‐level cumulative environmental exposures from 2006–2010 and matched to birth defects identified from Texas Birth Defects Registry and live birth records from births in years 2007–2010 ( N = 1,610,709). Poisson regression models estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between 10 birth defects and the EQI. Results We observed some positive associations between worst environmental quality and neural tube, anencephaly, spina bifida, oral cleft, cleft palate, cleft lip with and without cleft palate, and gastroschisis [PR range: 1.12–1.55], but near null associations with limb reduction defects. Among domain specific results, we observed the strongest positive associations with the sociodemographic domain across birth defects but varied positive associations among the air and water domains, and negative or null associations with the land and built domains. Overall, few exposure‐response patterns were evident. Conclusions Our results highlight the complexities of cumulative, simultaneous environmental exposures in the prevalence rates of 10 selected birth defects. We were able to explore the impact of overall and domain specific environmental quality on birth defects and identify potential domain specific drivers of these associations.

Krajewski, Alison K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy dependent calculations of fission product, prompt, and delayed neutron yields for neutron induced fission on 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu

In this article, we perform energy-dependent calculations of independent and cumulative fission product yields for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu in the first chance fission region. Starting with the primary fission fragment distributions taken from available experimental data and analytical functions based on assumptions for the excitation energy and spin-parity distributions, the Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay treatment for fission fragment de-excitation is applied to more than 1,000 fission fragments for the incident neutron energies up to 5 MeV. The calculated independent yields are then used as an input of β-decay calculations to produce the cumulative yield, and summation calculations are performed. Model parameters in these procedures are adjusted by applying the Bayesian technique at the thermal energy for 235 U and 239 Pu and in the fast energy range for 238 U. The calculated fission observable quantities, such as the energy-dependent cumulative yields, and prompt and delayed neutron yields, are compared with available experimental data. We also study the possible impact of the second chance fission opening on the energy dependence of the delayed neutron yield by on the opening of second chance fission on the energy dependence calculation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Small Reservoirs Offer a New Perspective on Flood Reduction in Large Basins

The flood reduction potential of individual reservoirs within a large river network continuum remains poorly understood due to the complex interplay between reservoir characteristics and network properties. Here we investigate whether a collection of relatively small reservoirs can play a significant role in mediating downstream floods and assess how that role may be influenced by reservoir network properties compared to traditionally known reservoir characteristics. Our unique contribution was the simulation of downstream flood inundation maps alongside peak flows for each of the 81 major reservoirs (6 × 104 to 8 × 109 m3) across 15,000 river reach segments, integrated into a process-based hydrologic model covering a 415,000 km2 region in the Texas Gulf Coast, United States. The three key takeaways from our study are as follows. (a) Smaller reservoirs can substantially reduce downstream flooding, suggesting that inclusion of large reservoirs—the traditional approach in flood risk management studies—may present only a partial picture. (b) Flood reduction by smaller reservoirs is more effective upstream, although this phenomenon may be linked with aridity and overall water availability. (c) While reservoir size matters, it is not the primary factor determining its downstream flood reduction potential; the influence of network properties, such as catchment area, the count of upstream reservoirs, the cumulative maximum storage capacity of upstream reservoirs, and Stream Order (i.e., location), is equally and often more important. The broader impact of our findings goes beyond just floods, providing foundational insights for addressing emerging challenges such as aging dams and river connectivity.

Patel, Krutikkumar [University of Texas at Arlingt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

To support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to predict new heat transfer data. To do this experimental data was amassed, one preliminary set comprised of 16 test results, and an expanded version comprised of 38 test results. With the goal of predicting experimental apparatus temperatures and pressures, several iterations of models were tested investigating the impact of model hyper-parameters, data inclusion, and data pre-processing on model performance. A total of 15 variations cumulatively of Gaussian Process Regressors, Gradient Boosting Regressors, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were trained and validated on the preliminary set, and the best algorithm of each class was re-trained on the expanded set. These were compared based on test/train R^2 , test/train mean absolute error (MAE), and validation MAE, to identify the successfulness of these models. It was shown temperatures could be predicted within just a few degrees, showing the potential of this approach. Future research has been identified with approaches to improve pressure and temperature predictions going forward.

Grabowski, Owen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental and economic analyses of chemical recycling via dissolution of waste polyethylene terephthalate

Globally, more than 1000 organizations and 175 nations are facing the plastic waste problem and have realized the need to transition from “linear-to-circular” economy of plastics. While the current mechanical recycling technologies for plastics are struggling to increase the U.S. plastic recycling rates beyond 9%, chemical recycling technologies become important complementary technologies to the predominant mechanical recycling that are needed to realize the circular economy in plastics supply chains. Dissolution is one such chemical recycling technology that can recycle waste plastic back into high-quality virgin grade plastic. However, the environmental and economic impacts of chemical recycling of waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) via dissolution technology using a green solvent are unknown. Our study evaluated environmental metrics such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cumulative energy demand, and economic metrics such as net present value (NPV), minimum selling price, payback period, return on investment, and discounted internal rate of return for three dissolution processes with polymer recovery via anti-solvent, evaporation, and cooling precipitation techniques. The dissolution process with evaporation technique was the most economically favorable, whereas that with cooling technique was the most environmentally favorable. The anti-solvent approach had low economic performance and the highest environmental impacts. The NPV for all of these technologies ranged from $2.67 MM to $10.93 MM for a capacity of 8,400 MT/year and was found to be the highest for dissolution with evaporation approach and the least for anti-solvent approach. The cradle-to-gate GHG emissions and energy demand for PET dissolution processes ranged from 1.33-3.77 kg CO2-eq/kg of chemically recycled (CR) PET and18.9-56.1 MJ/kg of CR-PET, respectively. These economic and environmental metrics will be helpful in evaluating the sustainability of circular PET supply chains in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life cycle energy demand and carbon emissions of scalable single-junction and tandem perovskite PV

Perovskite photovoltaics reached record efficiencies in the laboratory and, if sustainably commercialized, they would accelerate a green energy transition. Here, this article presents the development of life-cycle inventory material and energy databases of most promising four single-junction and three tandem scalable perovskite systems with assumptions regarding scalable production validated by industry experts. We conducted comprehensive “ex ante” Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and Net Energy Analysis, analyzing their cumulative energy demand, global warming potential profiles, energy payback times and energy return on investment (EROI). LCA contribution analysis elucidates the most impactful material and process choices. It shows that solution-based perovskite manufacturing would have lower environmental impact than vapor-based methods, and that roll-to-roll (RtR) printing offers the lowest impact. Among material choices, MoOx/Al has lower impact than Ag, and fluorine-tin-oxide lower than indium-tin-oxide. Furthermore, we compare perovskites with commercial crystalline-silicon and thin-film PV, accounting for the most recent developments in crystalline-Si wafer production and differences in life expectancies and efficiencies. It is shown that perovskite systems produced with RtR manufacturing could reach in only 12 years of life the same EROI as that of single-crystalline-Si PV lasting 30-years. This work lays a foundation for sustainability investigations of perovskite large-scale deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Based Detection Scheme for Spoofed Sensor Data in Grid-Connected Inverters

In this article, a novel method to detect spoofed sensor data (SSD) for grid-connected inverters is proposed. First, a Kalman filter is used to estimate the inverter status in the proposed method. Then, the impact of SSD on the residual between estimation and control reference is analyzed. By leveraging the standard error of residual, an adaptive cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is developed to achieve fast SSD detection and improve robustness. In addition, the proposed SSD detection method is verified by the hardware experiment. A comparative experiment with a conventional method also demonstrates the rapidity and robustness of the proposed method. Lastly, the performance of the proposed method under different noise covariance matrices is analyzed. Comprehensive analysis shows that the proposed method meets the detection requirement in IEEE 1547 Standard.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bishop Paiute Single Family Solar Home Project: Phase 4 (Final Technical Report)

The Bishop Paiute Tribe is committed to energy efficiency, renewable energy, and environmental protection and has a vision to install solar energy systems on all buildings on the Reservation where technically feasible. Through completion of the Bishop Paiute Tribe Residential Solar Program – Phase 4, Bishop Paiute Tribe continued its successful model partnering with non-profit solar installer GRID Alternatives to advance its vision and build energy self-sufficiency on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. The Bishop Paiute Tribe Residential Solar Program – Phase IV deployed 67 kW-AC of new clean, renewable energy through grid-tied, net-metered rooftop solar electric systems installed on a total of 20 (one more than the planned 19) existing owner-occupied, single-family homes for low-income families on the Reservation. This represents nearly 14% of the Reservation’s total “unsolarized” homes. These systems were provided at no cost to the homeowners, who will also receive energy efficiency education to further reduce energy consumption and lower electric bills. GRID led a solar installation for three (3) of the homes where Tribal/community members, were given an opportunity in participating in on-the-roof trainings to gain new skills while installing solar for their low-income community members. Subcontractors through GRID Sub Contractor Partnership Program (GRID SPP) led solar installations for seventeen (17) of the homes. Each installation provided paid employment for a solar trainee trainees hired by the SPP subcontractors as entry level solar installers. It is estimated that the installed 67 kW-AC of solar will produce at least 120,000 kWh/year, displacing at least 30-75% of the 20 homes’ total electricity use for a combined system lifetime electricity cost savings for the low-income homeowners of about $\$$500,000. It is further estimated that the installed renewable energy systems installed will prevent greenhouse gases by about 1,000 tons, equivalent to planting approximately 25,000 trees. Following the successful completed installations, it is expected that the Reservation and surrounding communities will benefit from improved air quality via reduced wood stove use for heating. Cumulatively with other initiatives, the project will result in nearly 40% of the Reservation’s solarizable homes being solarized. Overall, the triple impact of the phase 4 of the Bishop Paiute Tribe Residential Solar Program – Phase 4 is: 1) affordable energy for low-income families; 2) on-site clean energy production, 3) hands on training and paid solar installation work for local tribal/community workers. These impacts will support and grow the Tribe’s energy, economic, environmental, and social self-sufficiency and sovereignty amongst the neediest on the Reservation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗