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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Missing components in ΛCDM from DESI Y1 baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements: Insights from redshift remapping

We explore transformations of the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric and cosmological parameters that align with observational data while aiming to gain insights into potential extensions of standard cosmological models. We modified the FLRW metric by introducing a scaling factor, e 2Θ(a) –the cosmological scaling function (CSF), which alters the standard relationship between cosmological redshift and the cosmic scale factor without affecting angular measurements or cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. Using data from DESI Year 1, Pantheon+ supernovae, and the Planck CMB temperature power spectrum, we constrained both the CSF and cosmological parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Our results indicate that the CSF model fits observational data with a lower Hubble constant (although it is compatible with the value given by Planck 2018 within 1σ) and is predominantly dark matter dominated. Additionally, the CSF model produces temperature and lensing power spectra similar to those predicted by the standard model, though with lower values in the CSF model at large scales. We also checked that when fitting a CSF model without dark energy to the data, we obtain a more negative conformal function. This suggests that the CSF model may offer hints about missing elements and opens up a new avenue for exploring physical interpretations of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unfolding Structure Formation in the Dark Universe via Weak Gravitational Lensing: from Pixels to Cosmology in the Dark Energy Survey and Roman Space Telescope

Weak gravitational lensing (deflection of light from distant galaxies due to the gravitational potential of intervening mass) is one of the most exciting probes in cosmology as it is sensitive both to the growth of the large-scale structure and the expansion history of the Universe. We can measure the coherent distortion of galaxy shapes (which we call cosmic shear) and infer the matter distribution. With next-generation imaging surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin LSST) and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope (Roman), there is immense new promise in understanding the fundamental nature of dark matter and dark energy. With datasets from current experiments like the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we see apparent cosmological tensions between experiments that may either be real and indicate new physics or new systematics we do not yet understand. LSST and Roman will increase the number of galaxies we have observed by an order of magnitude, leading to improved constraints on our cosmological model by up to 300%. These experiments will have the potential to prove if these cosmological tensions are real. However, our control of systematic uncertainties must also improve by similar levels to achieve the promise of what these missions can deliver. To achieve these scientific outcomes, the challenges of determining galaxy shapes and redshifts and modeling the impact of astrophysical effects must be solved. My PhD has focused on enabling weak lensing science in DES and Roman. I co-led the shear analysis teams in DES to produce the largest weak lensing galaxy sample, as well as the final DES cosmological analysis of cosmic shear. For Roman, I have led two papers characterizing and mitigating shear-related systematics with image simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linear point and sound horizon as purely geometric standard rulers

The baryon acoustic oscillations feature (BAO) imprinted in the clustering correlation function is known to furnish us cosmic distance determinations that are independent of the cosmological-background model and the primordial perturbation parameters. These measurements can be accomplished rigorously by means of the purely geometric BAO methods. To date two different purely geometric BAO approaches have been proposed. The first exploits the linear-point standard ruler. The second, called correlation-function model-fitting, exploits the sound-horizon standard ruler. A key difference between them is that, when estimated from clustering data, the linear point makes use of a cosmological-model-independent procedure to extract the ratio of the ruler to the cosmic distance, while the correlation-function model-fitting relies on a phenomenological cosmological model for the correlation function. Nevertheless the two rulers need to be precisely defined independently of any specific observable (e.g., the BAO). We define the linear point and sound horizon and we fully characterize and compare the two rulers’ cosmological-parameter dependence. We find that they are both geometrical (i.e., independent of the primordial cosmological parameters) within the required accuracy, and that they have the same parameter dependence for a wide range of parameter values. We estimate the rulers’ best-fit values and errors, given the cosmological constraints obtained by the Planck Satellite team from their measurements of the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropies. We do this for three different cosmological models encompassed by the purely geometric BAO methods. In each case we find that the relative errors of the two rulers coincide and they are insensitive to the assumed cosmological model. Interestingly both the linear point and the sound horizon shift by 0.5σ when we do not fix the spatial geometry to be flat in Λ CDM. Finally, this points toward a sensitivity of the rulers to different cosmological models when they are estimated from the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Converting dark matter to dark radiation does not solve cosmological tensions

Tensions between cosmological parameters (in particular the local expansion rate H 0 and the amplitude of matter clustering S8) inferred from low-redshift data and data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large-scale structure (LSS) experiments have inspired many extensions to the standard cosmological model, LCDM. Models which simultaneously lessen both tensions are of particular interest. We consider one scenario with the potential for such a resolution, in which some fraction of the dark matter has converted into dark radiation since the release of the CMB. Such a scenario encompasses and generalizes the more standard "decaying dark matter" model, allowing additional flexibility in the rate and time at which the dark matter converts into dark radiation. In this paper, we constrain this scenario with a focus on exploring whether it can solve (or reduce) these tensions. We find that such a model is effectively ruled out by CMB data, in particular by the reduced peak-smearing due to CMB lensing on the power spectrum and the excess integrated Sachs--Wolfe (ISW) signal caused by the additional dark energy density required to preserve flatness after dark matter conversion into dark radiation. Thus, such a model does not have the power to reduce these tensions without further modifications. This conclusion extends and generalizes related conclusions derived for the standard decaying dark matter model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Causal horizons, geodesic completeness and stability in slow contraction cosmology

We show that cosmological models with a semi-infinite phase of slow contraction (ekpyrosis) possess a combination of properties that can address several fundamental problems in cosmology, otherwise faced in contracting de Sitter phases or standard big bang expansion. In particular, flat or open slow contraction admits a stable past attractor that asymptotes to Minkowski space and is past geodesically complete, as well as a stable, flat, homogeneous, and isotropic future attractor with negligible Weyl curvature (and, therefore, negligible gravitational entropy). In bouncing cosmologies, this contracting attractor is terminated by a smooth, non-singular bounce that transforms the attractor properties at the end of contraction into the initial conditions for the subsequent expanding phase. Cosmologies incorporating a slow contraction phase have no particle horizon and therefore avoid the causal horizon problem. The past Minkowski attractor also generates an initial spectrum of vacuum-like quantum fluctuations on all wavelengths. Moreover, because the averaged expansion rate along past-directed geodesics is non-positive, models incorporating a semi-infinite phase of slow contraction also evade the Borde–Guth–Vilenkin theorem. By contrast, contracting de Sitter space possesses a finite particle horizon and becomes unstable in the presence of scalar fields, matter, or radiation.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cosmological forecasts for future galaxy surveys with the linear point standard ruler: Toward consistent BAO analyses far from a fiducial cosmology

The linear point (LP) standard ruler was identified as the basis of a purely geometric method for exploiting the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). The LP exploits the BAO feature imprinted in the galaxy two-point correlation function to measure cosmological distances independent of any specific cosmological model. We forecast the expected precision of future and ongoing spectroscopic galaxy surveys to measure distances leveraging the linear point. We investigate the cosmological implications of our forecasted results. We focus in particular on a relevant working example: the detection of the late-time cosmic acceleration independent of other cosmological probes. Further, our findings show that, even within the Λ⁢CDM standard cosmological paradigm, estimated distances need to be reliable over a very wide parameter range in order to realize their maximum utility. This is particularly relevant if we aim to properly characterize cosmological tensions. The LP is a promising candidate approach to achieve this reliability. In contrast, widely employed procedures in BAO analysis estimate distances keeping fixed cosmological parameters to fiducial values close to cosmic-microwave-background constraints in flat-Λ⁢CDM. It is unclear whether they are purely geometric methods. Moreover, they rely on untested extrapolations to explore the parameter space away from those fiducial flat-Λ⁢CDM values. We recommend that all BAO methodologies be validated across the full range of models and parameters over which their results are quoted, first by means of linear predictions and then N -body simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation budgeting for hybrid effective field theories

In this work, we forecast the number of, and requirements on, N-body simulations needed to train hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) emulators for a range of use cases, using a hybrid of HMcode and perturbation theory as a surrogate model. Our accuracy goals, determined with careful consideration of statistical and systematic uncertainties, are 1% accurate in the high-likelihood range of cosmological parameters, and 2% accurate over a broader parameter space volume for k < 1 h Mpc -1 and z < 3. Focusing in part on the 8-parameter w 0 w a CDM+ m ν cosmological model, we find that < 225 simulations are required to meet our error goals over our wide parameter space, including models with rapidly evolving dark energy, given our simulation and emulator recommendations. For a more restricted parameter space volume, as few as 80 simulations are sufficient. We additionally present simulation forecasts for example use cases, and make the code used in our analyses publicly available. These results offer practical guidance for efficient emulator design and simulation budgeting in future cosmological analyses.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Measurement of the CMB E-mode Angular Power Spectrum at Subdegree Scales from 670 Square Degrees of POLARBEAR Data

In this work, we report a measurement of the E-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data taken from 2014 July to 2016 December with the POLARBEAR experiment. We reach an effective polarization map noise level of 32 μK-arcmin across an observation area of 670 square degrees. We measure the EE power spectrum over the angular multipole range 500 ≤ ℓ < 3000, tracing the third to seventh acoustic peaks with high sensitivity. The statistical uncertainty on E-mode bandpowers is ~2.3 μK 2 at ℓ ~ 1000, with a systematic uncertainty of 0.5 mK 2 . Furthermore, the data are consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmological model with a probability-to-exceed of 0.38. We combine recent CMB E-mode measurements and make inferences about cosmological parameters in ΛCDM as well as in extensions to ΛCDM. Adding the ground-based CMB polarization measurements to the Planck data set reduces the uncertainty on the Hubble constant by a factor of 1.2 to H0 = 67.20 ±0.57 km s -1 Mpc -1 . When allowing the number of relativistic species (Neff ) to vary, we find N eff = 2.94 ±0.16, which is in good agreement with the standard value of 3.046. Instead allowing the primordial helium abundance (Y He ) to vary, the data favor Y He = 0.248 ±0.012. This is very close to the expectation of 0.2467 from big bang nucleosynthesis. When varying both Y He and N eff , we find N eff = 2.70 ±0.26 and Y He = 0.262 ±0.015.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined II: The hubble constant tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, which has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity, a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in part the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the 4.4σ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting models of new physics that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade’s experiments will be crucial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tilted spatially nonflat inflation

Throughout this work, we construct nonlinear inflaton potential-energy densities that describe not necessarily very slowly rolling closed and open inflation models, and compute tilted primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectra that follow from quantum-mechanical fluctuations during inflation in these models. Earlier nonflat inflation model power spectra computations assumed an inflaton potential-energy density with a linear slope that resulted in very slow roll during inflation and untilted power spectra. These new tilted power spectra differ from those that have previously been used to study cosmological data in nonflat cosmological models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting cosmological constraints from the weak lensing magnification of type Ia supernovae measured by the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

We report that the weak lensing magnification of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is sensitive to the clustering of matter and provides an independent cosmological probe complementary to SN Ia distance measurements. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is uniquely sensitive to this measurement as it can discover high redshift SNe Ia and measure them with high precision. We present a methodology for reconstructing the probability distribution of the weak lensing magnification μ of SNe Ia, p(μ), from observational data, and using it to constrain cosmological parameters. We find that the reconstructed p(μ) can be fitted accurately by a stretched Gaussian distribution and used to measure the variance of μ, ξ μ , which can be compared to theoretical predictions in a likelihood analysis. Applying our methodology to a set of realistically simulated SNe Ia expected from the Roman Space Telescope, we find that using the weak lensing magnification of the SNe Ia constrains a combination of matter density Ω m and matter clustering amplitude σ 8 . SN Ia distances alone lead to a better than 1% measurement of Ωm. The combination of SN Ia weak lensing magnification and distance measurements result in a ~10 % measurement on σ 8 . The SNe Ia from Roman will be powerful in constraining the cosmological model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Dark Matter Across Scales (Final Technical Report)

The research supported by this DOE grant investigated the nature of dark matter, particularly its particle properties and astrophysical manifestations, over the period of 2018 to 2024. The proposal focused on leveraging astrophysical probes, cosmological models, and high-resolution simulations to further our understanding of dark matter, its possible interactions, and the theoretical models that could explain its properties. This research directly contributes to the DOE's mission of exploring the fundamental constituents of the universe, advancing particle physics, and using cosmological and astrophysical observations to detect dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The primordial matter power spectrum on sub-galactic scales

The primordial matter power spectrum quantifies fluctuations in the distribution of dark matter immediately following inflation. Over cosmic time, overdense regions of the primordial density field grow and collapse into dark matter haloes, whose abundance and density profiles retain memory of the initial conditions. By analysing the image magnifications in 11 strongly lensed and quadruply imaged quasars, we infer the abundance and concentrations of low-mass haloes, and cast the measurement in terms of the amplitude of the primordial matter power spectrum. We anchor the power spectrum on large scales, isolating the effect of small-scale deviations from the Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) prediction. Assuming an analytic model for the power spectrum and accounting for several sources of potential systematic uncertainty, including three different models for the halo mass function, we obtain correlated inferences of $\log _{10}\left(P / P_{\Lambda \rm {CDM}}\right)$, the power spectrum amplitude relative to the predictions of the concordance cosmological model, of $0.0_{-0.4}^{+0.5}$, $0.1_{-0.6}^{+0.7}$, and $0.2_{-0.9}^{+1.0}$ at k = 10, 25, and 50 $\rm {Mpc^{-1}}$ at $68 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence, consistent with CDM and single-field slow-roll inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model independent comparison of supernova and strong lensing cosmography: Implications for the Hubble constant tension

We use supernovae measurements, calibrated by the local determination of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by SH0ES, to interpolate the distance-redshift relation using Gaussian process regression. We then predict, independent of the cosmological model, the distances that are measured with strong lensing time delays to test their mutual agreement. In this work we find excellent agreement between these predictions and the measurements. The agreement holds when we consider only the redshift dependence of the distance-redshift relation, independent of the value of $H_0$. Our results disfavor the possibility that lens mass modeling contributes a 10% bias or uncertainty in the strong lensing analysis, as suggested recently in the literature. In general our analysis strengthens the case that residual systematic errors in both measurements are below the level of the current discrepancy with the CMB determination of $H_0$, and supports the possibility of new physical phenomena on cosmological scales. With additional data our methodology can provide more stringent tests of unaccounted for systematics in the determinations of the distance-redshift relation in the late universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gamma-ray burst data strongly favour the three-parameter fundamental plane (Dainotti) correlation over the two-parameter one

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), observed to redshift z = 9.4, are potential probes of the largely unexplored z ∼ 2.7–9.4 part of the early Universe. Thus, finding relevant relations among GRB physical properties is crucial. We find that the Platinum GRB data compilation, with 50 long GRBs (with relatively flat plateaus and no flares) in the redshift range 0.553 ≤ z ≤ 5.0, and the LGRB95 data compilation, with 95 long GRBs in 0.297 ≤ z ≤ 9.4, as well as the 145 GRB combination of the two, strongly favour the 3D Fundamental Plane (Dainotti) correlation (between the peak prompt luminosity, the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission, and its rest-frame duration) over the 2D one (between the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission and its duration). The 3D Dainotti correlations in the three data sets are standardizable. We find that while LGRB95 data have ∼50 per cent larger intrinsic scatter parameter values than the better-quality Platinum data, they provide somewhat tighter constraints on cosmological-model and GRB-correlation parameters, perhaps solely due to the larger number of data points, 95 versus 50. This suggests that when compiling GRB data for the purpose of constraining cosmological parameters, given the quality of current GRB data, intrinsic scatter parameter reduction must be balanced against reduced sample size.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗