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Results for “constrained variational analysis”

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DOE OSTI2020

Four direct measurements of the fine-structure constant 13 billion years ago

Observations of the redshift z = 7.085 quasar J1120+0641 are used to search for variations of the fine structure constant, a, over the redshift range 5:5 to 7:1. Observations at z = 7:1 probe the physics of the universe at only 0.8 billion years old. These are the most distant direct measurements of a to date and the first measurements using a near-IR spectrograph. A new AI analysis method is employed. Four measurements from the x - shooter spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) constrain changes in a relative to the terrestrial value (α 0 ). The weighted mean electromagnetic force in this location in the universe deviates from the terrestrial value by Δα/α = (α z - α 0 )/α 0 = (-2:18 ± 7:27) × 10 -5 , consistent with no temporal change. Combining these measurements with existing data, we find a spatial variation is preferred over a no-variation model at the 3:9σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Nonmotorized Travel in New York State Using 2017 National Household Travel Survey Data

This report presents systematic analysis of nonmotorized travel behavior within New York State (NYS) utilizing 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. As walking and biking assume increasingly prominent roles in advancing active transportation objectives, accessible mobility, and sustainable transportation systems, comprehensive understanding of these modal patterns becomes essential for evidence-based policy development and strategic planning initiatives. Recognizing the substantial geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic heterogeneity characterizing NYS—spanning from the concentrated urban fabric of New York City (NYC) to dispersed suburban and rural contexts—this analysis employs the structured "4Ws" analytical framework to examine participant demographics, spatial and temporal distributions, and motivational factors underlying active transportation choices relative to motorized alternatives. This methodological approach captures modal behavior patterns, user characteristics, trip purposes, and temporal variations across the state's diverse contexts. Additionally, the research examines behavioral differences among distinct user classifications, including walk-only and bike-only travelers, while conducting comparative analysis of nonmotorized travel patterns between ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) and non-ALICE household categories.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Kerr Reservoir LANDSAT experiment analysis for November 1980

An experiment was conducted on the waters of Kerr Reservoir to determine if reliable algorithms could be developed that relate water quality parameters to remotely sensed data. LANDSAT radiance data was used in the analysis since it is readily available and covers the area of interest on a regular basis. By properly designing the experiment, many of the unwanted variations due to atmosphere, solar, and hydraulic changes were minimized. The algorithms developed were constrained to satisfy rigorous statistical criteria before they could be considered dependable in predicting water quality parameters. A complete mix of different types of algorithms using the LANDSAT bands was generated to provide a thorough understanding of the relationships among the data involved. The study demonstrated that for the ranges measured, the algorithms that satisfactorily represented the data are mostly linear and only require a maximum of one or two LANDSAT bands. Rationing techniques did not improve the results since the initial design of the experiment minimized the errors that this procedure is effective against. Good correlations were established for inorganic suspended solids, iron, turbidity, and secchi depth.

Lecroy, S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Error field and magnetic diagnostic modeling for W7-X

The prediction, detection, and compensation of error fields for the W7-X device will play a key role in achieving a high beta (Β = 5%), steady state (30 minute pulse) operating regime utilizing the island divertor system [1]. Additionally, detection and control of the equilibrium magnetic structure in the scrape-off layer will be necessary in the long-pulse campaign as bootstrapcurrent evolution may result in poor edge magnetic structure [2]. An SVD analysis of the magnetic diagnostics set indicates an ability to measure the toroidal current and stored energy, while profile variations go undetected in the magnetic diagnostics. An additional set of magnetic diagnostics is proposed which improves the ability to constrain the equilibrium current and pressure profiles. However, even with the ability to accurately measure equilibrium parameters, the presence of error fields can modify both the plasma response and diverter magnetic field structures in unfavorable ways. Vacuum flux surface mapping experiments allow for direct measurement of these modifications to magnetic structure. The ability to conduct such an experiment is a unique feature of stellarators. The trim coils may then be used to forward model the effect of an applied n = 1 error field. This allows the determination of lower limits for the detection of error field amplitude and phase using flux surface mapping. *Research supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 with Princeton University.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the Effects of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Cost and Market Adoption

We conduct bottom-up analysis of how PV module efficiency could influence residential rooftop installed system costs, using models with improved representation of how soft costs and power electronics are affected by efficiency. We show that the amount of system installed cost savings resulting from high efficiency modules depends on whether or not the system is area-constrained, with much larger savings for the area-constrained case. We then estimate the fraction of physically area-constrained rooftops in the United States to be 61%, with variation between 20% to over 80% of rooftops depending on the state. We find that fraction of area-constrained systems could grow to over 88% by 2050 if building and transportation loads are electrified.

efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Black Carbon Aging in Global Models to Reflect Timescales for Internal Mixing

The radiative effects of black carbon depend critically on its atmospheric lifetime, which is controlled by the rate at which freshly emitted combustion particles become internally mixed with other aerosol components. Global aerosol models strive to represent this process, but the timescale for aerosol mixing is not easily constrained using observations. In this study, we apply a timescale parameterization derived from particle‐resolved simulations to quantify, in a global aerosol model, the timescale for internal mixing. We show that, while highly variable, the average timescale for internal mixing is approximately 3 hr, which is much shorter than the 24‐hr aging timescale traditionally applied in bulk aerosol models. We then use the mixing timescale to constrain the aging criterion in the Modal Aerosol Module. Our analysis reveals that, to best reflect timescales for internal mixing, modal models should assume that particles transition from the hydrophobic (fresh) to the hydrophilic (aged) class once they accumulate a coating thickness equal to four monolayers of sulfuric acid, as opposed to the model's current aging criterion of eight monolayers. We show that, in remote regions like the Arctic and Antarctic, predictions of black carbon loading and its seasonal variation are particularly sensitive to the model representation of aging. By constraining aging in global models to reflect mixing timescales simulated by the particle‐resolved model, we eliminate one of the free parameters governing black carbon's long‐range transport and spatiotemporal distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Molybdenum isotope compositions of uranium ore concentrates by double spike MC-ICP-MS

The molybdenum (Mo) isotope composition of uranium ore concentrate (UOC) has been proposed as a nuclear forensic signature due to the ubiquitous presence of Mo in the nuclear fuel cycle and to the possibility that different UOC production pathways lead to characteristic Mo isotope fractionation. Furthermore, Mo forms a volatile hexafluoride which leads to the retainment of Mo in the nuclear fuel cycle through U enrichment and reactor operation processes. As a result, it is possible that the nuclear fuel cycle generates a rich array of Mo isotope signatures. The first step in interpreting Mo isotope signatures generated during the nuclear fuel cycle is to characterize the Mo isotope composition of starting materials. In this study, a suite of UOC samples were analyzed for their Mo isotope composition in order to constrain the range of Mo isotope compositions entering the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Analytical protocols were developed to purify Mo from a U rich matrix prior to Mo isotope analysis by double spike MC-ICP-MS. A >3‰ variation in the 98 Mo/ 95 Mo ratio was observed in the suite of UOC samples with δ 98 Mo ranging from -1.15 to +1.96‰ relative to the NIST 3134 Mo standard reference material. The δ98Mo range observed in the UOC samples is very similar to the δ 98 Mo range observed in crustal igneous rocks and Mo-bearing minerals, suggesting that Mo isotope variability in UOC is driven by variability in the parent U ores. However, Mo isotope fractionation during UOC production is evident with one of the UOC samples being isotopically heavy relative to its parent U ore by 0.75‰, suggesting that different UOC production processes also contribute to the total Mo isotope variability observed. Overall, it is expected that the Mo isotope signatures generated during enrichment and reactor process will be clearly discernible from those generated during UOC production.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2023

A polarimetrically oriented X-ray stare at the accreting pulsar EXO 2030+375

Accreting X-ray pulsars (XRPs) are presumed to be ideal targets for polarization measurements, as their high magnetic field strength is expected to polarize the emission up to a polarization degree of ∼80%. However, such expectations are being challenged by recent observations of XRPs with the Imaging X-ray Polarimeter Explorer (IXPE). Here, we report on the results of yet another XRP, namely, EXO 2030+375, observed with IXPE and contemporarily monitored with Insight-HXMT and SRG/ART-XC. In line with recent results obtained with IXPE for similar sources, an analysis of the EXO 2030+375 data returns a low polarization degree of 0%–3% in the phase-averaged study and a variation in the range of 2%–7% in the phase-resolved study. Using the rotating vector model, we constrained the geometry of the system and obtained a value of ∼60° for the magnetic obliquity. When considering the estimated pulsar inclination of ∼130°, this also indicates that the magnetic axis swings close to the observer’s line of sight. Our joint polarimetric, spectral, and timing analyses hint toward a complex accreting geometry, whereby magnetic multipoles with an asymmetric topology and gravitational light bending significantly affect the behavior of the observed source.

EXO 2030+375↗

DOE OSTI2021

Four chromosome scale genomes and a pan-genome annotation to accelerate pecan tree breeding

Genome-enabled biotechnologies have the potential to accelerate breeding efforts in long-lived perennial crop species. Despite the transformative potential of molecular tools in pecan and other outcrossing tree species, highly heterozygous genomes, significant presence–absence gene content variation, and histories of interspecific hybridization have constrained breeding efforts. To overcome these challenges, here, we present diploid genome assemblies and annotations of four outbred pecan genotypes, including a PacBio HiFi chromosome-scale assembly of both haplotypes of the ‘Pawnee’ cultivar. Comparative analysis and pan-genome integration reveal substantial and likely adaptive interspecific genomic introgressions, including an over-retained haplotype introgressed from bitternut hickory into pecan breeding pedigrees. Further, by leveraging our pan-genome presence–absence and functional annotation database among genomes and within the two outbred haplotypes of the ‘Lakota’ genome, we identify candidate genes for pest and pathogen resistance. Combined, these analyses and resources highlight significant progress towards functional and quantitative genomics in highly diverse and outbred crops.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Chandra X-ray Grating Spectrometry of Eta Carinae near X-ray Minimum: I. Variability of the Sulfur and Silicon Emission Lines

We report on variations in important X-ray emission lines in a series of Chandra grating spectra of the supermassive colliding wind binary star eta Car, including key phases around the X-ray minimum/periastron passage in 2003.5. The X-rays arise from the collision of the slow, dense wind of eta Car with the fast, low-density wind of an otherwise hidden companion star. The X-ray emission lines provide the only direct measure of the flow dynamics of the companion's wind along the wind-wind collision zone. We concentrate here on the silicon and sulfur lines, which are the strongest and best resolved lines in the X-ray spectra. Most of the line profiles can be adequately fit with symmetric Gaussians with little significant skewness. Both the silicon and sulfur lines show significant velocity shifts and correlated increases in line widths through the observations. The R = forbidden-to-intercombination ratio from the Si XIII and S XV triplets is near or above the low-density limit in all observations, suggesting that the line-forming region is > 1.6 stellar radii from the companion star, and that the emitting plasma may be in a non-equilibrium state. We show that simple geometrical models cannot simultaneously fit both the observed centroid variations and changes in line width as a function of phase. We show that the observed profiles can be fitted with synthetic profiles with a reasonable model of the emissivity along the wind-wind collision boundary. We use this analysis to help constrain the line formation region as a function of orbital phase, and the orbital geometry. Subject headings: X-rays: stars -stars: early-type-stars: individual (q Car)

Henley, D. B.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Transit timing variations for planets co-orbiting in the horseshoe regime

Although not yet detected, pairs of exoplanets in 1:1 mean motion resonance probably exist. Low eccentricity, near-planar orbits, which in the comoving frame follow horseshoe trajectories, are one of the possible stable configurations. Here we study transit timing variations (TTVs) produced by mutual gravitational interaction of planets in this orbital architecture, with the goal to develop methods that can be used to recognize this case in observational data. In particular, we use a semi-analytic model to derive parametric constraints that should facilitate data analysis. We show that characteristic traits of the TTVs can directly constrain the (1) ratio of planetary masses and (2) their total mass (divided by that of the central star) as a function of the minimum angular separation as seen from the star. In an ideal case, when transits of both planets are observed and well characterized, the minimum angular separation can also be inferred from the data. As a result, parameters derived from the observed transit timing series alone can directly provide both planetary masses scaled to the central star mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring the Morphology of M87* in 2009-2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has recently delivered the first resolved images of M87*, the supermassive black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy. These images were produced using 230 GHz observations performed in 2017 April. Additional observations are required to investigate the persistence of the primary image feature—a ring with azimuthal brightness asymmetry—and to quantify the image variability on event horizon scales. To address this need, we analyze M87* data collected with prototype EHT arrays in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013. While these observations do not contain enough information to produce images, they are sufficient to constrain simple geometric models. We develop a modeling approach based on the framework utilized for the 2017 EHT data analysis and validate our procedures using synthetic data. Applying the same approach to the observational data sets, we find the M87* morphology in 2009–2017 to be consistent with a persistent asymmetric ring of ∼40 μas diameter. The position angle of the peak intensity varies in time. In particular, we find a significant difference between the position angle measured in 2013 and 2017. These variations are in broad agreement with predictions of a subset of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We show that quantifying the variability across multiple observational epochs has the potential to constrain the physical properties of the source, such as the accretion state or the black hole spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessing Mountains as Natural Reservoirs With a Multimetric Framework

Anthropogenic climate change will continue to diminish the unique role that mountains perform as natural reservoirs and alter long‐held assumptions of water management. Climate models are important tools to help constrain uncertainty and understand processes that shape this decline. To ensure that climate model estimates provide stakeholder relevant information, the formulation of multimetric model evaluation frameworks informed by stakeholder interactions are critical. In this study, we present one such multimetric framework to evaluate snowpack data sets in the California Sierra Nevada: the snow water equivalent (SWE) triangle. SWE triangle metrics help to describe snowpack characteristics associated with total water volume buildup, peak water availability, and the rate of water release. This approach highlights compensating errors that would not be reflected in conventional large‐scale spatiotemporal analysis. To test our multimetric evaluation framework, we evaluate several publicly available snow products including the Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis, Livneh (L15), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 data sets. We then evaluate regional climate model skill within the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. All data sets analyzed show variation across the various SWE triangle metrics, even within observationally constrained snow products. This spread was especially shown in spring season melt rates. Melt rate biases were prevalent throughout most regional climate model simulations, regardless of snow accumulation dynamics, and will need to be addressed to improve their utility for water stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Analysis of Terrestrial and Aquatic Environmental Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Conterminous United States

Riverine carbon cycling is an important, but insufficiently investigated component of the global carbon cycle. Analyses of environmental controls on riverine carbon cycling are critical for improved understanding of mechanisms regulating carbon processing and storage along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. Here, we compile and analyze riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration data from 1402 United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations to examine the spatial variability and environmental controls of DOC concentrations in the United States (U.S.) surface waters. DOC concentrations exhibit high spatial variability, with an average of 6.42 ± 6.47 mg C/ L (Mean ± Standard Deviation). In general, high DOC concentrations occur in the Upper Mississippi River basin and the Southeastern U.S., while low concentrations are mainly distributed in the Western U.S. Single-factor analysis indicates that slope of drainage areas, wetlands, forests, percentage of first-order streams, and instream nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus) pronouncedly influence DOC concentrations, but the explanatory power of each bivariate model is lower than 35%. Analyses based on the general multi-linear regression models suggest DOC concentrations are jointly impacted by multiple factors. Soil properties mainly show positive correlations with DOC concentrations; forest and shrub lands have positive correlations with DOC concentrations, but urban area and croplands demonstrate negative impacts; total instream phosphorus and dam density correlate positively with DOC concentrations. Notably, the relative importance of these environmental controls varies substantially across major U.S. water resource regions. In addition, DOC concentrations and environmental controls also show significant variability from small streams to large rivers, which may be caused by changing carbon sources and removal rates by river orders. In sum, our results reveal that general multi-linear regression analysis of twenty one terrestrial and aquatic environmental factors can partially explain (56%) the DOC concentration variation. In conclusion, this study highlights the complexity of the interactions among these environmental factors in determining DOC concentrations, thus calls for processes-based, non-linear methodologies to constrain uncertainties in riverine DOC cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Integration of Airborne and Ground Observations of Nitryl Chloride in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and the Implications on Regional Oxidation Capacity During KORUS-AQ 2016

Nitryl chloride (ClNO2) is a radical reservoir species that releases chlorine radicals upon photolysis. An integrated analysis of the impact of ClNO2on regional photochemistry in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) during the Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) 2016 field campaign is presented. Comprehensive multiplatform observations were conducted aboard the NASA DC-8 and at two ground sites (Olympic Park, OP; Taehwa Research Forest, TRF), representing an urbanized area and a forested suburban region, respectively. Positive correlations between daytime Cl2 and ClNO2 were observed at both sites, the slope of which was dependent on O3 levels. The possible mechanisms are explored through box model simulations constrained with observations. The overall diurnal variations in ClNO2 at both sites appeared similar but the night-time variations were systematically different. For about half of the observation days at the OP site the level of ClNO2 increased at sunset but rapidly decreased at around midnight. On the other hand, high levels were observed throughout the night at the TRF site. Significant levels of ClNO2 were observed at both sites for 4–5 h after sunrise. Airborne observations, box model calculations, and back-trajectory analysis consistently show that these high levels of ClNO2 in the morning are likely from vertical or horizontal transport of air masses from the west. Box model results show that chlorine-radical-initiated chemistry can impact the regional photochemistry by elevating net chemical production rates of ozone by ∼25 % in the morning.

Nitryl chloride (ClNO2)↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Warm Dark Matter and Population III Stars with the Global 21 cm Signal

Upcoming ground- and space-based experiments may have sufficient accuracy to place significant constraints upon high-redshift star formation, Reionization, and dark matter (DM) using the global 21 cm signal of the intergalactic medium. In the early universe, when the relative abundance of low-mass DM halos was important, measuring the global signal would place constraints on the damping of structure formation caused by DM having a higher relic velocity (warm dark matter, or WDM) than in cold dark matter. Such damping, however, can be mimicked by altering the star formation efficiency (SFE) and can be difficult to detect because of the presence of Population III stars with unknown properties. We study these various cases and their degeneracies with the WDM mass parameter mX using a Fisher matrix analysis. We study the mX = 7 keV case and a star formation model that parameterizes the SFE as a strong function of halo mass and include several variations of this model along with three different input noise levels for the likelihood; we also use a minimum halo virial temperature for collapse near the molecular cooling threshold. We find that when the likelihood includes only Population II stars, mX is constrained to an uncertainty of ∼0.4 keV for all models and noise levels at the 68% confidence level. When the likelihood includes weak Population III stars, mX ∼ 0.3 keV, and if Population III star formation is relatively efficient, mX ∼ 0.1 keV uncertainty, with tight Population III star formation parameter constraints. Our results show that the global 21 cm signal is a promising test-bed for WDM models, even in the presence of strong degeneracies with astrophysical parameters.

Cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2016

THE AGORA HIGH-RESOLUTION GALAXY SIMULATIONS COMPARISON PROJECT. II. ISOLATED DISK TEST

Using an isolated Milky Way-mass galaxy simulation, we compare results from nine state-of-the-art gravito-hydrodynamics codes widely used in the numerical community. We utilize the infrastructure we have built for the AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. This includes the common disk initial conditions, common physics models (e.g., radiative cooling and UV background by the standardized package Grackle) and common analysis toolkit yt, all of which are publicly available. Subgrid physics models such as Jeans pressure floor, star formation, supernova feedback energy, and metal production are carefully constrained across code platforms. With numerical accuracy that resolves the disk scale height, we find that the codes overall agree well with one another in many dimensions including: gas and stellar surface densities, rotation curves, velocity dispersions, density and temperature distribution functions, disk vertical heights, stellar clumps, star formation rates, and Kennicutt–Schmidt relations. Quantities such as velocity dispersions are very robust (agreement within a few tens of percent at all radii) while measures like newly formed stellar clump mass functions show more significant variation (difference by up to a factor of ∼3). Systematic differences exist, for example, between mesh-based and particle-based codes in the low-density region, and between more diffusive and less diffusive schemes in the high-density tail of the density distribution. Yet intrinsic code differences are generally small compared to the variations in numerical implementations of the common subgrid physics such as supernova feedback. Our experiment reassures that, if adequately designed in accordance with our proposed common parameters, results of a modern high-resolution galaxy formation simulation are more sensitive to input physics than to intrinsic differences in numerical schemes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gradual polyploid genome evolution revealed by pan-genomic analysis of Brachypodium hybridum and its diploid progenitors

Abstract Our understanding of polyploid genome evolution is constrained because we cannot know the exact founders of a particular polyploid. To differentiate between founder effects and post polyploidization evolution, we use a pan-genomic approach to study the allotetraploid Brachypodium hybridum and its diploid progenitors. Comparative analysis suggests that most B. hybridum whole gene presence/absence variation is part of the standing variation in its diploid progenitors. Analysis of nuclear single nucleotide variants, plastomes and k-mers associated with retrotransposons reveals two independent origins for B. hybridum , ~1.4 and ~0.14 million years ago. Examination of gene expression in the younger B. hybridum lineage reveals no bias in overall subgenome expression. Our results are consistent with a gradual accumulation of genomic changes after polyploidization and a lack of subgenome expression dominance. Significantly, if we did not use a pan-genomic approach, we would grossly overestimate the number of genomic changes attributable to post polyploidization evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗