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At least 91 records · Page 5

The GLACE-2 Experiment

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗

Substorm theories: United they stand, divided they fall

Consensus on the timing and mapping of substorm features has permitted a synthesis of substorm models. Within the synthesis model the mechanism for onset of substorm expansion is still unknown. Possible mechanisms are: growth of an ion tearing mode, current disruption by a cross-field current instability, and magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. While the synthesis model is consistent with overall substorm morphology, including near-Earth onset, none of the onset theories, taken individually, appear to account for substorm expansion onset. A grand synthesis with unification of the underlying onset theories appears necessary.

Erickson, Gary M.↗

Second NASA Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM): Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) Technology Tool Box (TTB)

The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS), a spreadsheet analysis tool suite, applies parametric equations for sizing and lifecycle cost estimation. Performance, operation, and programmatic data used by the equations come from a Technology Tool Box (TTB) database. In this second TTB Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM), technologists, system model developers, and architecture analysts discussed methods for modeling technology decisions in spreadsheet models, identified specific technology parameters, and defined detailed development requirements. This Conference Publication captures the consensus of the discussions and provides narrative explanations of the tool suite, the database, and applications of ATLAS within NASA s changing environment.

ONeil, D. A.↗

Thermodynamics in the Suppressed Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Using a Multiplatform Strategy

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability. It is manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Preconditioning of the environment prior to the active phase of the MJO has been noted, but the balance of theorized mechanisms to accomplish this process remains unresolved. Further, there is a lack of consensus on the means by which primary initiation of an MJO event occurs. Observational and modeling efforts have recently been undertaken to advance our understanding of the physical underpinnings governing MJO development. However these intensive studies are often limited in space and/or time and are potentially subject to model deficiencies. Satellite observations, especially those providing vertical resolution of temperature and moisture, provide an opportunity to expand our knowledge of processes critical to MJO initiation and preconditioning. This work will provide an analysis of suppressed phase thermodynamics with an emphasis on the use of a complementary suite of satellite observations including AIRS/AMSU-A profiles, CERES radiative fluxes, and cloud properties observed by MODIS. Emphasis of this work will regard the distribution of cloud regimes, their radiative-convective effects, and their relationship to moist static energy during the recharge and suppressed stages of MJO initiation and eastward propagation. The analyses will make use of cloud regimes from MODIS observations to provide a compositing technique that enables the identification of systematic connections between different cloud regimes and the larger scale environment. Within these cloud regimes, the relationship between the associated cloud-radiative effects observed by CERES, vertically-resolved and vertically-integrated thermodynamics using AIRS/AMSU-A observations, and atmospheric boundary layer fluxes will be demonstrated.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations

Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.

Clouds↗

An Overview of the NASA Lift+Cruise eVTOL Crash Test

Introduction – NASA RVLT Project Impact Dynamics / Crash Safety Task - Task Objective: “To improve the crashworthiness and impact safety of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicle and provide data to simplify the certification process. Efforts will include development of validated computational models of these vehicles, as well as other impacting bodies such as birds and drones. Efforts will also focus on developing and evaluating energy absorbing and crush properties of emerging and non-traditional composite materials and processes. Finally, occupant protection will be addressed using computational models and physical assets as it pertains to all rotorcraft environments.” - Problem Statement: “There currently is a lack of data for requirements regarding the crashworthy performance of UAM vehicles and impact loads generated by a bird strike. To address this technology gap, NASA will develop test guidelines, adopt modeling methodologies demonstrating capability for ‘certification by analysis’, acquire vehicle and occupant data on full-scale representative vehicles, and provide data/guidance to consensus standards organizations and the UAM community.” - 4 Main focus points - The investigation of occupant injury using physical and computational assets - The development of energy absorbing technology - The generation of data from sub- and full-scale crash test data - The execution of advanced finite element modelling techniques

evtol↗

Survey of the supporting research and technology for the thermal protection of the Galileo Probe

The Galileo Probe, which is scheduled to be launched in 1985 and to enter the hydrogen-helium atmosphere of Jupiter up to 1,475 days later, presents thermal protection problems that are far more difficult than those experienced in previous planetary entry missions. The high entry speed of the Probe will cause forebody heating rates orders of magnitude greater than those encountered in the Apollo and Pioneer Venus missions, severe afterbody heating from base-flow radiation, and thermochemical ablation rates for carbon phenolic that rival the free-stream mass flux. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the experimental work and computational research that provide technological support for the Probe's heat-shield design effort. The survey includes atmospheric modeling; both approximate and first-principle computations of flow fields and heat-shield material response; base heating; turbulence modelling; new computational techniques; experimental heating and materials studies; code validation efforts; and a set of 'consensus' first-principle flow-field solutions through the entry maneuver, with predictions of the corresponding thermal protection requirements.

Howe, J. T.↗

Can a variable alpha induce limit cycle behavior and exponential luminosity decay in transient soft x ray sources?

There has been, recently, a revival of the stability problem of accretion disks. Much of this renewed interest is due to recent observational data on transient soft X-ray novae, which are low-mass X-ray binaries. It is widely believed that nonsteady mass transfer from the secondary onto the compact primary, through an accretion disk, is the reason for the observed spectacular events in the form of often repetitive outbursts, with recurrence times ranging from 1 to 60 yr and duration time on the scale of months. Though not having reached yet a consensus about the nature of the mechanism that regulates the mass transfer, the disk thermal instability model seems to be favored by the fact that the rise in the hard X-ray luminosity is prior to the rise in the soft X-ray luminosity, while the mass transfer instability model seems to be hindered by the fact that the luminosity during quiescence is unable to trigger the thermal instability. However, it should be stressed that, remarkably, the X-ray light curves of these X-ray novae all show overall exponential decays, a feature quite difficult to reproduce in the framework of the viscous disk model, which yields powerlike luminosity decay. Taking into account this observational constraint, we have studied the temporal evolution of perturbations in the accretion rate, under the assumption that alpha is radial and parameter dependent. The chosen dependence is such that the model can reproduce limit cycle behavior (the system is locally unstable but globally stable). However, the kind of dependence we are looking for in alpha does not allow us to use the usual Shakura and Sunyaev procedure in the sense that we no longer can obtain a linearized continuity equation without explicit dependence on the accretion rate. This is so because now we cannot eliminate the accretion rate by using the angular momentum conservation equation.

Meirellesfilho, C.↗

The Language Research Center's Computerized Test System for environmental enrichment and psychological assessment

In the spring of 1987, we undertook to provide environmental enrichment to nonhuman primate subjects in ways that would complement and even contribute to the bio-behaviorial science that justified the monkeys' captivity. Of course, the psychological well-being of captive primates--and indeed all research species-- has been an area of intense research activity since the 1985 amendment of the Animal Welfare Act. This mandate for researchers to ensure the psychological, as well as physical, fitness of experimental animals catalyzed the humane and scientific interests of the research community. The contemporary literature is replete with proposed means both of assaying and of providing enrichment and well-being. Notwithstanding, consensus on either assessment or intervention has yet to be reached. The paradigm we employed was modelled after successful efforts with chimpanzees. An automated test system was constructed in which subjects responded to computer tasks by manipulating a joystick. The tasks, interactive game-like versions of many of the classic testing paradigms of cognitive and comparative psychology, permitted the controlled presentation of stimuli and demands without the required presence of a human experimenter. Despite significant barriers to the success, rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) and a variety of other primate species (including, of course, humans) have mastered the skills necessary for testing in this paradigm. Previous experiments have illustrated the utility of the test system for addressing questions of learning, memory, attention, perception, and motivation. Additional data have been reported to support the contention that the Language Research Center's Computerized Test System (LRC-CTS) serves its other raison d'etre--providing environmental enrichment and assessing psychological well-being. This paper is designed to augment previous descriptions of the technology and the paradigm for scientists and caretakers interested in environmental enrichment and performance assessment with primates.

Non-NASA Center↗

Trace Chemistry

The goals of the trace chemistry group were to identify the processes relevant to aerosol and aerosol precursor formation occurring within aircraft gas turbine engines; that is, within the combustor, turbine, and nozzle. The topics of discussion focused on whether the chemistry of aerosol formation is homogeneous or heterogeneous; what species are important for aerosol and aerosol precursor formation; what modeling/theoretical activities to pursue; what experiments to carry out that both support modeling activities and elucidate fundamental processes; and the role of particulates in aerosol and aerosol precursor formation. The consensus of the group was that attention should be focused on SO2, SO3, and aerosols. Of immediate concern is the measurement of the concentration of the species SO3, SO2, H2SO4 OH, HO2, H2O2, O, NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, CO, and CO2 and particulates in various engines, both those currently in use and those in development. The recommendation was that concentration measurements should be made at both the combustor exit and the engine exit. At each location the above species were classified into one of four categories of decreasing importance, Priority I through IV, as follows: Combustor exit: Priority I species - SO3:SO2 ratio, SO3, SO2, and particulates; Priority II species: OH and O; Priority III species - NO and NO2; and Priority IV species - CO and CO2. For the Engine exit: Priority I species - SO3:SO2 ratio, SO3, SO2,H2SO4, and particulates; Priority II species: OH,HO2, H2O2, and O; Priority III species - NO, NO2, HONO, and HNO3; and Priority IV species - CO and CO2. Table I summarizes the anticipated concentration range of each of these species. For particulate matter, the quantities of interest are the number density, size distribution, and composition. In order to provide data for validating multidimensional reacting flow models, it would be desirable to make 2-D, time-resolved measurements of the concentrations of the above species and, in addition, of the pressure, temperature, and velocity. A near term goal of the experimental program should be to confirm the nonlinear effects of sulfur speciation, and if present, to provide an explanation for them. It is also desirable to examine if the particulate matter retains any sulfur. The recommendation is to examine the effects on SOx production of variations in fuel-bound sulfur and aromatic content (which may affect the amount of particulates formed). These experiments should help us to understand if there is a coupling between particulate formation and SO, concentration. Similarly, any coupling with NOx can be examined either by introducing NOx into the combustion air or by using fuel-bound nitrogen. Also of immediate urgency is the need to establish and validate a detailed mechanism for sulfur oxidation/aerosol formation, whose chemistry is concluded to be homogeneous, because there is not enough surface area for heterogeneous effects. It is envisaged that this work will involve both experimental and theoretical programs. The experimental work will require, in addition to the measurements described above, fundamental studies in devices such as flow reactors and shock tubes. Complementing this effort should be modeling and theoretical activities. One impediment to the successful modeling of sulfur oxidation is the lack of reliable data for thermodynamic and transport properties for several species, such as aqueous nitric acid, sulfur oxides, and sulfuric acid. Quantum mechanical calculations are recommended as a convenient means of deriving values for these properties. Such calculations would also help establish rate constants for several important reactions for which experimental measurements are inherently fraught with uncertainty. Efforts to implement sufficiently detailed chemistry into computational fluid dynamic codes should be continued. Zero- and one-dimensional flow models are also useful vehicles for elucidating the minimal set of species and reactions that must be included in two- and three-dimensional modeling studies.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗

Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere- troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2 ) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. The models, however, are in good agreement as to the impact of SSWs over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)↗

Biological modulation of planetary atmospheres: The early Earth scenario

The establishment and subsequent evolution of life on Earth had a profound impact on the chemical regime at the planet's surface and its atmosphere. A thermodynamic gradient was imposed on near-surface environments that served as the driving force for a number on important geochemical transformations. An example is the redox imbalance between the modern atmosphere and the material of the Earth's crust. Current photochemical models predict extremely low partial pressures of oxygen in the Earth's prebiological atmosphere. There is widespread consensus that any large-scale oxygenation of the primitive atmosphere was contingent on the advent of biological (autotrophic) carbon fixation. It is suggested that photoautotrophy existed both as a biochemical process and as a geochemical agent since at least 3.8 Ga ago. Combining the stoichiometry of the photosynthesis reaction with a carbon isotope mass balance and current concepts for the evolution of the stationary sedimentary mass as a funion of time, it is possible to quantify, the accumulation of oxygen and its photosynthetic oxidation equivalents through Earth history.

Schidlowski, M.↗

Participant-Observations of 'Effective Dialogue' at a NASA Center: Toward New Paradigm

Four recently instituted 'dialogic' communication forums at a NASA center are described and analyzed. Their discourse is compared to a (typical) paradigmatic model of dialogic discourse principles. It is argued that dialogue which does not fit the exemplary model may nonetheless be effective for building community, investment, and democratic exchange. The study further suggests that consensus and teamwork may be less evident (and perhaps less effective) than individual voice and oppositional stance.

Effective Dialogue↗

Aeromedical Disposition and Waiver Consideration for ISS Crewmembers

Aeromedical certification of astronauts and cosmonauts traveling to the International Space Station is a multi?-tiered process that involv es standards agreed to by the partner agencies, and participation by the individual agency aeromedical boards and a multilateral space medi cine board. Medical standards are updated continually by a multilater al working group. The boards operate by consensus and strive to achie ve effective decision making through experience, medical judgment, medical evidence and risk modeling. The aim of the certification process is to minimize the risk to the ISS program of loss of mission object ives due to human health issues.

Taddeo, Terrance↗

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for the Lunar Surface

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity on the lunar surface. While the predictions in this document are for the surface, spacecraft orbiting the Moon at low altitudes will encounter meteoroids at similar rates. The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗

Controlling Distributed Planning

A system of software implements an extended version of an approach, denoted shared activity coordination (SHAC), to the interleaving of planning and the exchange of plan information among organizations devoted to different missions that normally communicate infrequently except that they need to collaborate on joint activities and/or the use of shared resources. SHAC enables the planning and scheduling systems of the organizations to coordinate by resolving conflicts while optimizing local planning solutions. The present software provides a framework for modeling and executing communication protocols for SHAC. Shared activities are represented in each interacting planning system to establish consensus on joint activities or to inform the other systems of consumption of a common resource or a change in a shared state. The representations of shared activities are extended to include information on (1) the role(s) of each participant, (2) permissions (defined as specifications of which participant controls what aspects of shared activities and scheduling thereof), and (3) constraints on the parameters of shared activities. Also defined in the software are protocols for changing roles, permissions, and constraints during the course of coordination and execution.

Clement, Bradley↗