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At least 91 records · Page 5

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network

Traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs(BNNs) could help measure the confidence level by using distributions in NNs modeling. Besides, knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be properly incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized BNN(PR-BNN) model by incorporating soft and hard constraints as a posterior regularization term. We also propose an augmented Lagrangian method and stochastic optimization algorithm for efficient updating via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulations and case studies in solar energy prediction have shown the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A measurement of the cosmic microwave background temperature at 7.5 GHz

The temperature of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation at a frequency of 7.5 GHz (4 cm wavelength) is measured, obtaining a brightness temperature of T(CMB) = 2.70 +/- 0.08 K (68 percent confidence level). The measurement was made from a site near the geographical South Pole during the austral spring of 1989 and was part of an international collaboration to measure the CMB spectrum at low frequencies with a variety of radiometers from several different sites. This recent result is in agreement with the 1988 measurement at the same frequency, which was made from a different site with significantly different systematic errors. The combined result of the 1988 and 1989 measurements is 2.64 +/- 0.06 K.

Levin, S.↗

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equilibrium and nonequilibrium electron density measurements in transient shock-heated hydrogen-helium plasmas

In the NASA planetary program, atmospheric entry probe missions to Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus are potential programs now being planned for the 1980's. The work reported in this paper is concerned with predicting the electron density, and resulting radiative emission from the shock layer which must be accommodated by the entry probe heatshield. Within the hydrogen-helium plasma surrounding the forward heatshield, there are regions of near thermochemical equilibrium whose properties are predictable - however, there are uncertainties in these electron density calculations necessitating further measurements by H-beta line broadening and holographic interferometer fringe shift as reported here. There is good agreement between the results obtained from the holographic measurements and the spectroscopic measurements which lends confidence to each of the two completely independent diagnostic techniques. The equilibrium electron density determined from the experimental measurements is somewhat higher than that predicted.

Livingston, F. R.↗

Tomographic Reconstruction of the Neutron Time-Energy Spectrum from a Dense Plasma Focus

A dense plasma focus (DPF) nuclear fusion device is an attractive pulsed neutron source in many applications, due to its relatively large neutron yield, produced in a short time duration. In order to design a DPF that generates neutrons within a specified time profile, or generates a neutron energy spectrum with specific properties, it is necessary to be able to characterize and model the results of the fusion process releasing the neutrons. The time-energy spectrum of fusion neutrons is an ideal quantity to use to validate multiphysics codes that simulate the pinch and fusion processes, because it is a quantity that requires the physics of each of the stages leading up to and ending in the fusion reaction to be simulated correctly. In particular, since DPF fusion neutrons are not monoenergetic -- and there can often be several fusion pinches creating neutrons -- a computer simulation matching high quality neutron spectrum measurements provides great confidence in the fidelity of the simulation. In order to make such a comparison, it is first necessary to have quality measurements from which to infer the spectrum. In this work we pose neutron spectroscopy as the classical tomographic inverse problem from neutron time of flight data at multiple distances, but enhanced by using an additional measurement of the time profile of the fusion pinch near its source and by using detector pairs set up in a geometry that allows for scatter background subtraction. The detector pairs enhance the quality of the time of flight measurements, and the additional constraint posed by the measured time profile allows for reconstructions discretized as finely as the time measurements and in energy as finely as 100 keV, without the problem being underdetermined. We present results from a Deuterium-fueled DPF at the U.S. Department of Energy's Nevada National Security Site and show that we can infer the time-energy spectrum from our measurements for both single and multi-pinch fusion reactions with equal fidelity.

Catenacci, Jared↗

The influence of source acceleration on acoustic signals

The effect of aircraft acceleration on acoustic signals is often ignored in both analytical studies and data reduction of flight test measurements. In this study, the influence of source acceleration on acoustic signals is analyzed using computer simulated signals for an accelerating point source. Both rotating and translating sources are considered. Using a known signal allows an assessment of the influence of source acceleration on the received signal. Aircraft acceleration must also be considered in the measurement and reduction of flyover noise. Tracking of the aircraft over an array of microphones enables ensemble averaging of the acoustic signal, thus increasing the confidence in the measured data. This is only valid when both the altitude and velocity remain constant. For an accelerating aircraft, each microphone is exposed to differing flight velocities, Doppler shifts, and smear angles. Thus, averaging across the array in the normal manner is constrained by aircraft acceleration and microphone spacing. In this study computer simulated spectra, containing acceleration, are averaged across a 12 microphone array mimicking a flight test with accelerated profile in which noise data was obtained. Overlapped processing is performed is performed in the flight test measurements in order to alleviate spectral smearing.

Kelly, Jeffrey J.↗

The Ionization Profile Monitors in the Recycler Ring

The ionization profile monitors (IPMs) are used to measure the beam size in synchrotrons. Both the Fermilab Recycler and Main Injector (MI) machines have IPMs. However, they were not well understood enough to provide confidence in their measurements. Accurately measuring beam size through the IPMs was crucial to recognize the loss mechanisms for accelerators and to keep the beam loss to a minimum. Thus, performing measurements with different parameters using the IPMs led to a better analysis on how changes in conditions affect the beam size. The IPM measurements are compared with that of multi-wires in the upstream transfer line after applying corrections. The results were compared with other diagnostics and the change in the beam size for different parameters are presented in this paper.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Operator Workload and Task Allocation in m:N Operational Architectures of Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) show promise in urban air transport, package delivery, and emergency services. UAS efficiency can be significantly improved by having fewer operators (m) manage a greater number of vehicles (N), or the m:N architecture of operation. The current study investigates how workload affects operators’ task-allocation decision-making and potential effects of two crucial human factors: trust and self-confidence. In the context of a simulated UAS package-delivery task, 10 participants with expertise in UAS operation were recruited. Each participant reported their preferred task-allocation strategy for a set of five subtasks while watching two sets of videos with different workload levels. Perceived workload, trust, and self-confidence were also measured after each video session. Overall, participants indicated a preference for automation for most of the subtasks under the delivery mission. Trust, rather than workload and self-confidence, played a significant role in experts’ decisions of task-allocation and assignment methods. Higher trust led to higher preference for automation.

workload↗

Development of Hydroxyl Tagging Velocimetry for Low Velocity Flows

Hydroxyl tagging velocimetry (HTV) is a molecular tagging technique that relies on the photo-dissociation of water vapor into OH radicals and their subsequent tracking using laser induced fluorescence. Velocities are then obtained from time-of-flight calculations. At ambient temperature in air, the OH species lifetime is relatively short (<50 μs), making it suited for high speed flows. Lifetime and radicals formation increases with temperature, which allows HTV to also probe low-velocity, high-temperature flows or reacting flows such as flames. The present work aims at extending the domain of applicability of HTV, particularly towards low-speed (<10 m/s) and moderate (<500 K) temperature flows. Results are compared to particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements recorded in identical conditions. Single shot and averaged velocity profiles are obtained in an air jet at room temperature. By modestly raising the temperature (100-200 degC) the OH production increases, resulting in an improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Use of nitrogen - a non-reactive gas with minimal collisional quenching - extends the OH species lifetime (to over 500 μs), which allows probing of slower flows or, alternately, increases the measurement precision at the expense of spatial resolution. Instantaneous velocity profiles are resolved in a 100degC nitrogen jet (maximum jet-center velocity of 6.5 m/s) with an uncertainty down to 0.10 m/s (1.5%) at 68% confidence level. MTV measurements are compared with particle image velocimetry and show agreement within 2%.

Andre, Matthieu A.↗

Biomedical and Human Factors Requirements for a Manned Earth Orbiting Station

The primary objective of this study is to determine which biomedical and human factors measurements must be made aboard a space station to assure adequate evaluation of the astronaut's health and performance during prolonged space flights. The study has employed, where possible, a medical and engineering systems analysis to define the pertinent life sciences and space station design parameters and their influence on a measurement program. The major areas requiring evaluation in meeting the study objectives include a definition of the space environment, man's response to the environment, selection of measurement and data management techniques, experimental program, space station design requirements, and a trade-off analysis with final recommendations. The space environment factors that are believed to have a significant effect on man were evaluated. This includes those factors characteristic of the space environment (e. g. weightlessness, radiation) as well as those created within the space station (e. g. toxic contaminants, capsule atmosphere). After establishing the general features of the environment, an appraisal was made of the anticipated response of the astronaut to each of these factors. For thoroughness, the major organ systems and functions of the body were delineated, and a determination was made of their anticipated response to each of the environmental categories. A judgment was then made on the medical significance or importance of each response, which enabled a determination of which physiological and psychological effects should be monitored. Concurrently, an extensive list of measurement techniques and methods of data management was evaluated for applicability to the space station program. The various space station configurations and design parameters were defined in terms of the biomedical and human factors requirements to provide the measurements program. Research design of experimental programs for various station configurations, mission durations, and crew sizes were prepared, and, finally, a trade-off analysis of the critical variables in the station planning was completed with recommendations to enhance the confidence in the measurement program.

EARTH ORBIT↗

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A search for solar neutrons during solar flares

A new upper limit to the 1-20 MeV neutrons produced at the sun during large solar flares was obtained as a result of measurements made by a neutron detector on board the OGO-6 satellite. It was found that the 1-20 MeV solar neutron flux for the Nov. 2, June 13, June 15, Sept. 25, and Dec. 19, 1969, solar flare events cannot be greater than 0.05 n per sq cm per sec at the 95% confidence level. These measurements are consistent with the models proposed by Lingenfelter (1969) and Lingenfelter and Ramaty (1967) for solar neutron production during solar flares.

Ifedili, S. O.↗

FY23 Progress Report on Viscosity and Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Molten Salts

As presented in this report, thermal conductivity and viscosity measurements were performed on key chloride pseudo-binary molten salt systems of relevance to molten salt reactor developers. Thermal conductivity measurements were conducted with a variable gap technique, in which a known heat flux is driven across a molten salt specimen and the temperature difference is measured, allowing calculation of the thermal conductivity. This is achieved by establishing a small gap between the bottom of a cylindrical inner containment, which houses electrical heating elements, and an outer containment, which houses cooling channels; the gap size can be varied by compression of a formed bellows. A new calibration scheme was developed herein, involving a correction factor to the heat flux based on He measurements at various temperatures. Furthermore, the data processing methodology was improved to minimize the impact of radiative heat transfer in the calculation of salt specimen thermal conductivity from the temperature difference measurements. Viscosity measurements were conducted with a rolling ball viscometer, in which a ball rolls some known distance in an angled tubular crucible, and the terminal velocity can be used to calculate the viscosity of the salt. The measurement can be performed in a quartz crucible, with which a standard camera can be used to track the ball, or in a metal crucible, with which x-ray radiography is required to track the ball. A new custom x-ray system was made and dedicated to the rolling ball viscometer to enable high throughput automated measurements with salts which require containment with metal. Both systems have been integrated with a ventilation stack which allows for off-gassing of radioactive material, enabling future measurements with U-bearing salts. The thermal conductivity measurements performed herein were with NaCl-KCl (44 mol% NaCl). This salt system was measured in the previous fiscal year, however the thermal conductivity values obtained were comparatively low, and so the system was remeasured with the aforementioned calibration scheme and improved post-processing techniques. The newly obtained thermal conductivity values for NaCl-KCl (44 mol% NaCl) indicate good agreement with kinetic theory and ab-initio models (within 5–10 %). The viscosity measurements performed herein were with three different compositions of NaCl-KCl: 75, 50, and 25 mol% NaCl; a new calibration scheme was applied to account for variable flow effects in the laminar regime. The results show reasonable agreement with literature (5–20 %, depending on the temperature, composition, and study); however, literature values are likely higher than true values based on pure end-member measurements performed in the comparative studies. The measurements conducted herein do show a trend such that viscosity increases with increasing NaCl concentration, which agrees well with one of two comparative studies. In general, the measurements conducted herein gives confidence in the capability to use these systems to accurately measure thermal conductivity and viscosity of actinide-bearing salts within the next fiscal year.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Portable Laser Spectrometer for Airborne and Ground-Based Remote Sensing of Geological CO2 Emissions

A 24 kilogram, suitcase-sized, CW (Continuous Wave) Laser Remote Sensing Spectrometer (LARSS) with an approximately 2-kilometer range has been developed. It has demonstrated its flexibility in measuring both atmospheric CO2 from an airborne platform and terrestrial emission of CO2 from a remote mud volcano, Bledug Kuwu, Indonesia, from a ground-based sight. This system scans the CO2 absorption line with 20 discrete wavelengths, as opposed to the typical two-wavelength online-offline instrument. This multi-wavelength approach offers an effective quality control, bias control, and confidence estimate of measured CO2 concentrations via spectral fitting. The simplicity, ruggedness, and flexibility in the design allow for easy transportation and use on different platforms with a quick setup in some of the most challenging climatic conditions. While more refinement is needed, the results represent a stepping stone towards widespread use of active one-sided gas remote sensing in the earth sciences.

_______________________↗

Nanoparticle-enhanced absorptivity of copper during laser powder bed fusion

We report laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) of pure copper for thermal and electrical applications is hampered by its low near-infrared absorptivity and high thermal diffusivity. These material properties make it very difficult to localize the thermal energy needed to produce high density 3D printed parts. Modification of metal powders via nanoparticle additives is a promising approach to increasing absorptivity, but the effect of nanoparticles on absorptivity and melting behavior during LPBF is not well understood. In this study, we developed an in situ calorimetry system to measure effective absorptivity during LPBF on copper substrates. We decorated copper substrates using three nanoparticle systems (CuS, TiB 2 , multilayer graphene flakes) and demonstrated an enhanced absorptivity of the decorated substrates relative to pure copper. Graphene nanoflakes resulted in the highest improved absorption relative to pure copper from 0.09 to 0.48, due to their stability at high laser scanning powers. A thermomechanical model with convective heat transfer provided confidence in the measurements by reproducing the experimental melt pool traces. Full 3D cylindrical prints demonstrated an improvement in relative density of the copper-graphene powder prints (in the range of 0.930–0.992), relative to that of as-purchased copper powder prints (in the range of 0.854–0.972). This work provides a fundamental study of nanoparticle-enabled LPBF of highly reflective metals and demonstrates a viable route for expanding the library of reliably printable metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parameter identification of material constants in a composite shell structure

One of the basic requirements in engineering analysis is the development of a mathematical model describing the system. Frequently comparisons with test data are used as a measurement of the adequacy of the model. An attempt is typically made to update or improve the model to provide a test verified analysis tool. System identification provides a systematic procedure for accomplishing this task. The terms system identification, parameter estimation, and model correlation all refer to techniques that use test information to update or verify mathematical models. The goal of system identification is to improve the correlation of model predictions with measured test data, and produce accurate, predictive models. For nonmetallic structures the modeling task is often difficult due to uncertainties in the elastic constants. A finite element model of the shell was created, which included uncertain orthotropic elastic constants. A modal survey test was then performed on the shell. The resulting modal data, along with the finite element model of the shell, were used in a Bayes estimation algorithm. This permitted the use of covariance matrices to weight the confidence in the initial parameter values as well as confidence in the measured test data. The estimation procedure also employed the concept of successive linearization to obtain an approximate solution to the original nonlinear estimation problem.

Martinez, David R.↗

Uranian methane abundance, rotational temperature, and effective pressure from the 6800 A band

Measurements of the methane absorption features at 6800 A in two spectrograms of Uranus have been analyzed on the working hypothesis that the features are the R branch of the 5 mu(3) rotation-vibration overtone. Internal and external consistencies in temperature calculations from the measurements give increased confidence that the band identification and rotational-quantum-number assignments to band members are correct. Parametric fitting of synthetic reflecting-layer and homogeneous scattering-layer spectra to the spectrograms is attempted. The best-fit methane abundances, taken with recent estimates of the molecular hydrogen abundance, correspond to an average C:H ratio between 1.5 and 25 times larger than the solar ratio. Even greater enrichment of the C:H ratio may occur below the visible cloud boundary. High spectroscopic resolution of the present data permits direct measurement of the methane line halfwidth in Uranus's spectrum. The halfwidth corresponds to an effective pressure greater than 3 atm, depending on the mixture of atmospheric gases. Pressure in this range, at the methane rotational temperature of between 93 and 100 K, is inconsistent with current Uranus atmosphere models having solar elemental-abundance ratios. It is consistent with models which are considerably enriched in 'heavier' constituents.

Bergstralh, J. T.↗

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Gas Technology Institute (Abstract)

Hydrogen has the potential to play an important role in decarbonizing energy-intensive sectors, and credible and open-source protocols are needed to vet the environmental credibility of a specific production pathway, given the variability even among the same technologies. Stakeholders and markets lack consistent, transparent, technical tools and protocols to assess the carbon intensity of hydrogen production at the asset level. Gas Technology Institute (GTI) and S&P Global Platts have launched the Open Hydrogen Initiative (OHI), a new collaboration focused on brining industry within the hydrogen marketplace together to provide further transparency into the environmental greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of hydrogen production. As part of this initiative, GTI has invited NETL to participate in the effort because of NETL’s deep expertise and capabilities in Life Cycle Analysis. Therefore, NETL is joining forces with the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) to build a measurement tool, accompanying protocols, and confidence score of the quality of the measurement. This CRADA effort provides the technical research collaboration support with GTI that will be used in the broader Open Hydrogen Initiative that can provide stakeholders the technical tools and protocols to decarbonize energyintensive sectors.

08 HYDROGEN↗