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NASA NTRS1996

Quantifying Danger To Spacecraft Crews From Orbital Debris

MSCSurv computer program designed to quantify conditional probability of losing one or more crew members following remote likelihood of penetration of orbital debris into cluster of spacecraft modules containing crew members. Contributions to probability of losing one or more crew members quantified from three significant penetration-induced hazards: rupture of pressure wall (explosive decompression), injuries induced by fragments, and "slow" depressurization. Uses Monte Carlo-style subroutine to simulate penetration of thousands of orbital debris particles of various sizes, velocities, and angles of approach into spacecraft of selected exterior geometry. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Williamsen, Joel↗

NASA NTRS1996

Improved Closed-Loop Carrier-Phase Synchronization In BPSK

Scheme motivated by maximum-likelihood approach offers advantages over other well-known schemes. Proposed signal-processing system generates error signal proportional to derivative of conditional probability density function with respect to estimated carrier phase. Signal serves as feedback signal in carrier-phase-tracking loop.

Simon, Marvin K.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semi-elliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT vs. SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

McClung, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

McClung, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Algorithms for Multiple Fault Diagnosis With Unreliable Tests

In this paper, we consider the problem of constructing optimal and near-optimal multiple fault diagnosis (MFD) in bipartite systems with unreliable (imperfect) tests. It is known that exact computation of conditional probabilities for multiple fault diagnosis is NP-hard. The novel feature of our diagnostic algorithms is the use of Lagrangian relaxation and subgradient optimization methods to provide: (1) near optimal solutions for the MFD problem, and (2) upper bounds for an optimal branch-and-bound algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated using several examples. Computational results indicate that: (1) our algorithm has superior computational performance to the existing algorithms (approximately three orders of magnitude improvement), (2) the near optimal algorithm generates the most likely candidates with a very high accuracy, and (3) our algorithm can find the most likely candidates in systems with as many as 1000 faults.

Shakeri, Mojdeh↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semielliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT versus SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

McClung, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Can Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilites of Jet-Like Structures and Plumes Cause Solar Wind Fluctuations at 1 AU?

The long high-latitude sampling of Ulysses provides the opportunity to study fine structures. At latitudes poleward of about -60 degrees the solar wind had fluctuations in velocity gradients which were attributed to "microstreams." The data also suggested fluctuations characterized by magnetic plus thermal pressure balance structures ('PBS'). At higher frequencies, MHD turbulence was observed and found to be less evolved than it is in the ecliptic but essentially independent of heliographic latitude. It is argued here that microstreams, PBS, and MHD turbulence could all be the remnants of mixing due to shear instabilities associated with plumes and other filamentary structures ("jets") in coronal holes. To show this, we simulate a plume-like jet in the presence of an ambient magnetic field. We find that the presence of the ambient field reduces the growth rate of the instability, but the shear between a jet and its ambient still becomes unstable to the MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz instability when the shear speed is larger than the largest local magnetosonic speed, a condition probably satisfied for plumes.

Parhi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Can Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities of Jet-Like Structures and Plumes Cause Solar Wind Fluctuations at 1 AU?

The long high latitude sampling of Ulysses provides the opportunity to study fine structures. At latitudes poleward of approx. -60 deg, the solar wind had fluctuations in velocity gradients which were attributed to "microstreams". The data also suggested fluctuations characterized by magnetic plus thermal pressure balance structures ("PBS"). At higher frequencies, MHD turbulence was observed and found to be less evolved than in the ecliptic, but essentially independent of heliographic latitude. It is argued here that microstreams, PBS, and MHD turbulence could all be the remnants of mixing due to shear instabilities associated with plumes and other filamentarystructures ("jets") in coronal holes. To show this we simulate a plume-like jet in the presence of an ambient magnetic field. We find the presence of the ambient field reduces the growth rate of the instability, but the shear between a jet and its ambient still becomes unstable to the MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz ("KH") instability when the shear speed is larger than the largest local magnetosonic speed - a condition probably satisfied for plumes.

Shyamsundar, Parhi↗

NASA NTRS1999

Remote Sensing of Rain

The first problem addressed concerns passive-microwave rain retrievals. Most current approaches start by building off-line a cloud-model-derived database. Given data, the retrieval algorithms search the database for the microwave temperatures "closest" to the observed data, then after some fine-tuning (performed in different ways by different implementations) the rain is estimated to be that which corresponds to the selected (and fine-tuned) set of database temperatures. These approaches have three drawbacks: they cannot properly take into account the ambiguities which arise from the fact that several rain scenarios can produce the same observed temperatures; they are quite inefficient since they require manipulating a large database along with often complex "fine-tuning" procedures; and they cannot refine their estimates if additional data is available. This past year we have derived closed formulae relating observed microwave brightness temperatures, T(sub b), and the underlying rain rates, R: average T(sub b) =f (rain) and average rain = g (T(sub b)), along with the corresponding covariance matrices. These results are sufficient to describe the conditional probabilities p(R/T(sub b)) and p(T(sub b)/R) to second order. Progress has also been made towards deriving a robust description of the rain drop size distribution (DSD). The widespread approach consisting in parameterizing the DSD as a gamma-distribution in terms of the drop diameter D suffers from the facts that, in reality, the DSD is not a smooth function of D and that the largely arbitrary Gamma model imposes unintended behavior, which has implications on any quantities derived from the DSD model. We have therefore developed a non-parametric yet practical description of the DSD, which is particularly well-suited for use in remote-sensing applications. The diagram on the left shows a comparison between an actual DSD sample and the truncated non-parametric representation. One figure shows the relation between radar reflectivity and rain rate derived using this representation. Validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar-radiometer combined R and DSD algorithm is underway. This algorithm was designed to make optimal use of the instantaneous reflectivity profiles measured by the TRMM radar and the microwave brightness temperatures measured by the TRMM passive radiometer. So far, it appears to be the most reliable TRMM rain algorithm.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using Latent Sleepiness to Evaluate an Important Effect of Promethazine

Astronauts often use promethazine (PMZ) to counteract space motion sickness; however PMZ may cause drowsiness, which might impair cognitive function. In a NASA ground study, subjects received PMZ and their cognitive performance was then monitored over time. Subjects also reported sleepiness using the Karolinska Sleepiness Score (KSS), which ranges from 1 - 9. A problem arises when using KSS to establish an association between true sleepiness and performance because KSS scores tend to overly concentrate on the values 3 (fairly awake) and 7 (moderately tired). Therefore, we defined a latent sleepiness measure as a continuous random variable describing a subject s actual, but unobserved true state of sleepiness through time. The latent sleepiness and observed KSS are associated through a conditional probability model, which when coupled with demographic factors, predicts performance.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

Testik, F. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2006

Potential Lifestyles in Ancient Environments of Gusev Crater, Mars

Habitable environments must sustain liquid water at least intermittently and also provide both chemical building blocks and useful sources of energy for life. Observations by Spirit rover indicate that conditions have probably been too dry to sustain life, at least since the emplacement of the extensive basalts that underlie the plains around the Columbia Memorial Station landing site. Local evidence of relatively minor aqueous alteration probably occurred under conditions where the activity of water was too low to sustain biological processes as we know them. In contrast, multiple bedrock units in West Spur and Husband Hill in the Columbia Wills have been extensively altered, probably by aqueous processes. The Fe in several of these units has been extensively oxidized, indicating that, in principle, any microbiota present during the aqueous alteration of these rocks could have obtained energy from Fe oxidation. Spirit discovered oliving-rich ultramafic rocks during her descent from Husband Hill southward into Inner Basin. Alteration of similar ultramafic rocks on Earth can yield H2 that can provide both energy and reducing power for microorganisms. Spirit s discovery of "salty" soil horizons rich in Fe and/or Mg is consistent with the aqueous dissolution and/or alteration of olivine. Such processes can oxidize Fe and also yield H2 under appropriate conditions. Very high S concentrations in these salty deposits indicate that soluble salts were mobilized by water and/or that S oxidation, a potential energy source for life, occurred. The Athena team has not yet established whether these salt components were deposited as large beds in ancient water bodies or, for example, were concentrated by more recent groundwater activity. Collectively these observations are consistent with the possibility that habitable environments existed at least intermittently in the distant geologic past.

DesMarais, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Potentially Habitable Ancient Environments in Gusev Crater, Mars

Habitable environments must sustain liquid water at least intermittently and also provide both chemical building blocks and useful sources of energy for life. Observations by Spirit rover indicate that conditions have probably been too dry to sustain life, at least since the emplacement of the extensive basalts that underlie the plains around the Columbia Memorial Station landing site. Local evidence of relatively minor aqueous alteration [1] probably occurred under conditions where the activity of water was too low to sustain biological processes as we know them. In contrast, multiple bedrock units in West Spur and Husband Hill in the Columbia Hills have been extensively altered. Patterns of elemental abundances are consistent with aqueous processes involving migrating fluids [2]. Fe in several of these units has been extensively oxidized [3]. Conceivably any microbiota present during the aqueous alteration of these rocks might have obtained energy from Fe oxidation. Spirit discovered olivine-rich ultramafic rocks during her descent from Husband Hill southward into Inner Basin. Alteration of similar ultramafic rocks on Earth can yield H2 that can provide both energy and reducing power for microorganisms. Spirit's discovery of deposits rich in ferric sulfate is consistent with the aqueous dissolution and/or alteration of olivine under acidic conditions [2] such as those associated with hydrothermal activity. The oxidation of iron and sulfur that can accompany such activity can be an energy source for life. Hydrothermal systems on Earth that sustain either acidic [4] or neutral to alkaline fluids [5] have been shown to provide this energy. Collectively the observations by Spirit rover are consistent with the possibility that habitable environments existed in Gusev crater at least intermittently in the distant geologic past.

Fe oxidation↗

NASA NTRS1977

Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights

Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described.

Whiting, D. M.↗