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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Propellant-remaining modeling

A successful satellite mission is predicted upon the proper maintenance of the spacecraft's orbit and attitude. One requirement for planning and predicting the orbit and attitude is the accurate estimation of the propellant remaining onboard the spacecraft. Focuss is on the three methods that were developed for calculating the propellant budget: the errors associated with each method and the uncertainties in the variables required to determine the propellant remaining that contribute to these errors. Based on these findings, a strategy is developed for improved propellant-remaining estimation. The first method is based on Boyle's law, which related the values of pressure, volume, and temperature (PVT) of an ideal gas. The PVT method is used for the monopropellant and the bipropellant engines. The second method is based on the engine performance tests, which provide data that relate thrust and specific impulse associated with a propellant tank to that tank's pressure. Two curves representing thrust and specific impulse as functions of pressure are then generated using a polynomial fit on the engine performance data. The third method involves a computer simulation of the propellant system. The propellant flow is modeled by creating a conceptual model of the propulsion system configuration, taking into account such factors as the propellant and pressurant tank characteristics, thruster functionality, and piping layout. Finally, a thrust calibration technique is presented that uses differential correction with the computer simulation method of propellant-remaining modeling. Thrust calibration provides a better assessment of thruster performance and therefore enables a more accurate estimation of propellant consumed during a given maneuver.

Torgovitsky, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part II: Regularization and application of the pseudo-2D model

Bayesian parameter inference is useful to improve Li-ion battery diagnostics and can help formulate battery aging models. However, it is computationally intensive and cannot be easily repeated for multiple cycles, multiple operating conditions, or multiple replicate cells. To reduce the computational cost of Bayesian calibration, numerical solvers for physics-based models can be replaced with faster surrogates. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed as a surrogate for the pseudo-2D (P2D) battery model calibration. For the P2D surrogate, additional training regularization was needed as compared to the PINN single-particle model (SPM) developed in Part I. Both the PINN SPM and P2D surrogate models are exercised for parameter inference and compared to data obtained from a direct numerical solution of the governing equations. A parameter inference study highlights the ability to use these PINNs to calibrate scaling parameters for the cathode Li diffusion and the anode exchange current density. By realizing computational speed-ups of ~2250x for the P2D model, as compared to using standard integrating methods, the PINN surrogates enable rapid state-of-health diagnostics. Finally, in the low-data availability scenario, the testing error was estimated to ~2 mV for the SPM surrogate and ~10 mV for the P2D surrogate which could be mitigated with additional data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Thermal calibration and analysis of a Bridgman flight furnace

A combination of computer modeling and experimental measurements is proposed which permits the calibration of the temperature profile for a spacecraft flight furnace. The Fluent code based on the finite difference method uses the furnace set-point temperatures as boundary conditions to model a Bridgman directional solidification furnace. Experimental measurements are employed as a comparison for the numerical analysis, and the radial gradients and wall temperatures are selected when the calculated values are sufficiently close to those from measurements. The calculations are found to agree with experimental data, and some results of the modeling are given which relate to specific furnace parameters. The CFD approach facilitates the transposition of furnace calibration to microgravitational operation in addition to providing precise initial radial temperature gradients and furnace-wall temperatures.

Knuteson, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Method for Producing Hierarchical and Statistically Calibrated Predictions of Nuclear Material Properties from Existing Models

Computer vision-based analysis of micrographs of nuclear materials is an emerging technique for property prediction, synthetic route identification, and other material analysis tasks. These analysis tasks play a pivotal role in many material characterization applications such as signature development for treaty verification, process optimization, etc. The backbone in many of the recent computer vision-based techniques is a deep learning model, which takes a fixed-size set of pixels and provides a class prediction for that set of pixels. For example, previous work developed a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the synthetic route from a 256 px x 256 px patch taken from a larger image of uranium ore concentrates. In this work, we present several methods for first calibrating these models in a manner that they can provide accurate probabilities of their predictions’ veracity, and several methods of combining these probabilities. Overall, the combination of these two steps into a pipeline allows for full-image and even full-sample (where a sample has many images) predictions with associated confidence values. Finally, we show that one can also use the patch predictions and confidence to produce a visualization to map predicted constituents through the image. Results and examples for predicting and mapping uranium ore concentrates’ synthetic process from imagery will be presented.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2005

Navier-Stokes Computations With One-Equation Turbulence Model for Flows Along Concave Wall Surfaces

This report presents the use of a time-marching three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes equation numerical solver with a one-equation turbulence model to simulate the flow fields developed along concave wall surfaces without and with a downstream extension flat wall surface. The 3-D Navier- Stokes numerical solver came from the NASA Glenn-HT code. The one-equation turbulence model was derived from the Spalart and Allmaras model. The computational approach was first calibrated with the computations of the velocity and Reynolds shear stress profiles of a steady flat plate boundary layer flow. The computational approach was then used to simulate developing boundary layer flows along concave wall surfaces without and with a downstream extension wall. The author investigated the computational results of surface friction factors, near surface velocity components, near wall temperatures, and a turbulent shear stress component in terms of turbulence modeling, computational mesh configurations, inlet turbulence level, and time iteration step. The computational results were compared with existing measurements of skin friction factors, velocity components, and shear stresses of the developing boundary layer flows. With a fine computational mesh and a one-equation model, the computational approach could predict accurately the skin friction factors, near surface velocity and temperature, and shear stress within the flows. The computed velocity components and shear stresses also showed the vortices effect on the velocity variations over a concave wall. The computed eddy viscosities at the near wall locations were also compared with the results from a two equation turbulence modeling technique. The inlet turbulence length scale was found to have little effect on the eddy viscosities at locations near the concave wall surface. The eddy viscosities, from the one-equation and two-equation modeling, were comparable at most stream-wise stations. The present one-equation turbulence model is an effective approach for turbulence modeling in the near solid wall surface region of flow over a concave wall.

Wang, Chi R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Hybrid CFD/Engineering Model for Predicting Plume Induced Erosion and Cratering

The Descent Interpolated Gas-Granular Erosion Model (DIGGEM) is a hybrid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) / engineering model calibrated with flight data from Apollo. It is used for the prediction of plume induced viscous erosion and cratering during the descent of landing vehicles. The model assumes a functional relationship between local shear stress and eroded mass flux. It is used along with a suite of other tools to predict complex plume induced environments for Human Landing System (HLS) and Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPSS) vehicles.

PSI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving gas adsorption modeling for MOFs by local calibration of Hubbard U parameters

While computational screening with density functional theory (DFT) is frequently employed for the screening of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for gas separation and storage, commonly applied generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) exhibit self-interaction errors, which hinder the predictions of adsorption energies. We investigate the Hubbard U parameter to augment DFT calculations for full periodic MOFs, targeting a more precise modeling of gas molecule–MOF interactions, specifically for N2, CO2, and O2. We introduce a calibration scheme for the U parameter, which is tailored for each MOF, by leveraging higher-level calculations on the secondary building unit (SBU) of the MOF. When applied to the full periodic MOF, the U parameter calibrated against hybrid HSE06 calculations of SBUs successfully reproduces hybrid-quality calculations of the adsorption energy of the periodic MOF. The mean absolute deviation of adsorption energies reduces from 0.13 eV for a standard GGA treatment to 0.06 eV with the calibrated U, demonstrating the utility of the calibration procedure when applied to the full MOF structure. Furthermore, attempting to use coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples calculations of isolated SBUs for this calibration procedure shows varying degrees of success in predicting the experimental heat of adsorption. It improves accuracy for N2 adsorption for cases of overbinding, whereas its impact on CO2 is minimal, and ambiguities in spin state assignment hinder consistent improvements of O2 adsorption. Our findings emphasize the limitations of cluster models and advocate the use of full periodic MOF systems with a calibrated U parameter, providing a more comprehensive understanding of gas adsorption in MOFs.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2001

Exploring a Black Body Source as an Absolute Radiometric Calibration Standard and Comparison with a NIST Traced Lamp Standard

Radiometric calibration of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) is required for the scientific research and application objectives pursued with the spectroscopic measurements. Specifically calibration is required for: inter-comparison of AVIRIS data measured at different locations and at different times; analysis of AVIRIS data with data measured by other instruments; and analysis of AVIRIS data in conjunction with computer models. The primary effect of radiometric calibration is conversion of AVIRIS instrument response values (digitized numbers, or DN) to units of absolute radiance. For example, a figure shows the instrument response spectrum measured by AVIRIS over a portion of Rogers Dry Lake, California, and another figure shows the same spectrum calibrated to radiance. Only the calibrated spectrum may be quantitatively analyzed for science research and application objectives. Since the initial development of the AVIRIS instrument-radiometric calibration has been based upon a 1000-W irradiance lamp with a calibration traced to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). There are several advantages to this irradiance-lamp calibration approach. First, the considerable effort of NIST backs up the calibration. Second, by changing the distance to the lamp, the output can closely span the radiance levels measured by AVIRIS. Third, this type of standard is widely used. Fourth, these calibrated lamps are comparatively inexpensive. Conversely, there are several disadvantages to this approach as well. First, the lamp is not a primary standard. Second, the lamp output characteristics may change in an unknown manner through time. Third, it is difficult to assess, constrain, or improve the calibration uncertainty delivered with the lamp. In an attempt to explore the effect and potentially address some of these disadvantages a set of analyses and measurements comparing an irradiance lamp with a black-body source have been completed. This research is ongoing, and the current set of measurements, analyses, and results are presented in this paper.

Green, Robert O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

CFD code calibration and inlet-fairing effects on a 3D hypersonic powered-simulation model

A three-dimensional (3D) computational study has been performed addressing issues related to the wind tunnel testing of a hypersonic powered-simulation model. The study consisted of three objectives. The first objective was to calibrate a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its ability to predict hypersonic powered-simulation flows by comparing CFD solutions with experimental surface pressure dam. Aftbody lower surface pressures were well predicted, but lower surface wing pressures were less accurately predicted. The second objective was to determine the 3D effects on the aftbody created by fairing over the inlet; this was accomplished by comparing the CFD solutions of two closed-inlet powered configurations with a flowing-inlet powered configuration. Although results at four freestream Mach numbers indicate that the exhaust plume tends to isolate the aftbody surface from most forebody flowfield differences, a smooth inlet fairing provides the least aftbody force and moment variation compared to a flowing inlet. The final objective was to predict and understand the 3D characteristics of exhaust plume development at selected points on a representative flight path. Results showed a dramatic effect of plume expansion onto the wings as the freestream Mach number and corresponding nozzle pressure ratio are increased.

Huebner, Lawrence D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

CFD Code Calibration and Inlet-Fairing Effects On a 3D Hypersonic Powered-Simulation Model

A three-dimensional (3D) computational study has been performed addressing issues related to the wind tunnel testing of a hypersonic powered-simulation model. The study consisted of three objectives. The first objective was to calibrate a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its ability to predict hypersonic powered-simulation flows by comparing CFD solutions with experimental surface pressure data. Aftbody lower surface pressures were well predicted, but lower surface wing pressures were less accurately predicted. The second objective was to determine the 3D effects on the aftbody created by fairing over the inlet; this was accomplished by comparing the CFD solutions of two closed-inlet powered configurations with a flowing- inlet powered configuration. Although results at four freestream Mach numbers indicate that the exhaust plume tends to isolate the aftbody surface from most forebody flow- field differences, a smooth inlet fairing provides the least aftbody force and moment variation compared to a flowing inlet. The final objective was to predict and understand the 3D characteristics of exhaust plume development at selected points on a representative flight path. Results showed a dramatic effect of plume expansion onto the wings as the freestream Mach number and corresponding nozzle pressure ratio are increased.

Huebner, Lawrence D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

(U) PRAD0697 & PRAD0698: Complex Loading of CeO₂ Powder

Cerium(IV) oxide (CeO₂) powder is shock compressed using the Precision High Energy-density Liner Implosion eXperiment (PHELIX) platform. Experimental results are compared against several modeling approaches. Compaction behavior is best captured with a P-∝ model, which calculates CeO₂ powder bulk densities within 80-99% of experimental values but overpredicts densi cation at the cylindrical target's outer radius and center by up to 20%. Preliminary calculations suggest that accuracy could be increased with the inclusion of a coupled strength model. Several common computational modeling approaches for the shock compression response of granular materials and the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) force upon the impactor/liner in pulsed power compression experiments are investigated and analyzed for their validity. The Bi-linear Ramp, P-∝ PACXP, and P-∝ Menikoff-Kober continuum compaction models are calibrated to planar impact Hugoniot data for CeO₂ powder and used to predict the powder's shock compaction response under non-planar shock wave compression. MHD calculations of the PHELIX pulsed power driver are performed using an idealized resistor-inductor-capacitor (RLC) circuit calibrated to previous experiments. All simulations are performed using the LANL code FLAG. Two validation experiments are computationally designed using the calibrated compaction and circuit models, executed using the PHELIX platform on CeO₂ targets with initial porous densities of 3.95 and 4.03 g/cm³, measured with proton radiography, and analyzed against the model predictions. The two P-∝ models more accurately describe CeO₂ powder densi cation than the Bi-linear Ramp model. However, the two P-∝ models overpredict bulk density of the shock compressed CeO₂ powder by up to 20% when the appropriate impact velocities are applied. MHD calculations for both validation experiments underpredict liner impact velocities by 4-11% when using the idealized RLC circuit model calibrated to previous experiments. Compensating underpredictions of impact velocity and overpredictions of powder densication lead to a false accuracy in pre-shot calculations compared to experimental data. To improve correlation between simulations and experiments, the following improvements are suggested: 1. A coupled strength model for CeO₂ powder that updates strength as a function of porosity and applied stress. 2. An improved MHD circuit model that more accurately captures the PHELIX machine.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constitutive Models via Automatic Differentiation v.1.0.0

SAND2024-00905O Constitutive Models via Automatic Differentiation (CMAD) provides a software framework for solving constitutive or material model calibration problems. It relies on JAX's automatic differentiation capabilities to compute the derivatives needed for both forward and adjoint sensitivity analyses. The software can be used to implement constitutive models and calibrate the parameters from experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Seidl, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗