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DOE OSTI2022

Detecting hidden transient events in noisy nonlinear time-series

The information impulse function (IIF), running Variance, and local Hölder Exponent are three conceptually different time-series evaluation techniques. These techniques examine time-series for local changes in information content, statistical variation, and point-wise smoothness, respectively. Using simulated data emulating a randomly excited nonlinear dynamical system, this study interrogates the utility of each method to correctly differentiate a transient event from the background while simultaneously locating it in time. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to evaluate the efficacy of each technique by varying pulse size, time location, and noise level in time-series. Our findings reveal that, in most cases, the first instance of a transient event is more easily observed with the information-based approach of IIF than with the Variance and local Hölder Exponent methods. While our study highlights the unique strengths of each technique, the results suggest that very robust and reliable event detection for nonlinear systems producing noisy time-series data can be obtained by incorporating the IIF into the analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Existence of a robust optimal control process for efficient measurements in a two-qubit system

The verification of quantum entanglement is essential for quality control in quantum communication. In this work we propose an efficient protocol to directly verify the two-qubit entanglement of a known target state through a single-expectation-value measurement. Our method provides exact entanglement quantification using the concurrence measure without performing quantum state tomography. We prove the existence of a unitary transformation that drives a known initial state of a two-qubit system to a designated final state, where the trace over a chosen observable directly yields the concurrence of the initial state. Furthermore, we implement an optimal control process of that transformation and demonstrate its effectiveness through numerical simulations. We also show that this process is robust to environmental noise. Our approach offers advantages in directly verifying entanglement with low circuit depth, making it suitable for industrial-scale quality control of entanglement generation. Our results presented here provide mathematical justification for our earlier computational experiments.

Rodriguez, Ricardo [McPherson Coll.] (ORCID:000000↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Spectral Filling in Radio Frequency Applications

Due to the Internet of Things (IoT) proliferation, Radio Frequency (RF) channels are increasingly congested with new kinds of devices, which carry unique and diverse communication needs. This poses complex challenges in modern digital communications, and calls for the development of technological innovations that (i) optimize capacity (bitrate) in limited bandwidth environments, (ii) integrate cooperatively with already-deployed RF protocols, and (iii) are adaptive to the ever-changing demands in modern digital communications. In this paper we present methods for applying deep neural networks for spectral filling. Given an RF channel transmitting digital messages with a pre-established modulation scheme, we automatically learn novel modulation schemes for sending extra information, in the form of additional messages, “around” the fixed-modulation signals (i.e., without interfering with them). In so doing, we effectively increase channel capacity without increasing bandwidth. We further demonstrate the ability to generate signals that closely resemble the original modulations, such that the presence of extra messages is undetectable to third-party listeners. We present three computational experiments demonstrating the efficacy of our methods, and conclude by discussing the implications of our results for modern RF applications.

Setzler, Matthew D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating Bilevel Optimization With Hierarchical Many-Threaded Parallel Differential Evolution

Bilevel optimization is encountered in many relevant real-world applications. The main feature of this type of problem is that an upper-level optimization problem is constrained by a nested lower-level optimization problem. Because of this nested structure, bilevel problems (BLPs) are usually computationally expensive to solve. Differential evolution (DE) has demonstrated promising results in solving BLPs of relatively small scales. As the problem scale increases, the decision space becomes intrinsically larger, requiring a growing number of function evaluations for the method to work properly. In this context, heavy parallelization and high-performance computing techniques are indispensable to enable the resolution of more complex and challenging optimization problems. Hence, we propose a hierarchical many-threaded parallel DE approach for BLPs, where both levels are parallelized. The computational experiments demonstrate that the parallel implementation achieved runtime speeds ranging from 44 to 2559 times faster than the sequential version on a well-known scalable SMD benchmark test problem when executed on an NVIDIA A100 GPU. The findings indicate that the algorithm’s convergence is strongly influenced by the number of both upper- and lower-level generations. Moreover, the success of experiments with large-scale problems is closely linked to the choice of small population sizes.

Dufek, Amanda S↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributionally Robust Bilevel Optimization Model for Distribution Network With Demand Response Under Uncertain Renewables Using Wasserstein Metrics

Here, we consider a distribution network integrating demand response (DR) participants in the presence of uncertain renewable suppliers and outdoor temperatures. A bilevel optimization model is proposed to capture the intricate dynamics between price-incentivized DR participants and distribution system operations, including energy procurement and active/reactive power flows. The model is formulated as a distributional robust bilevel optimization using Wasserstein metrics. We show favorable data-driven properties including out-of-sample guarantee and asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, we present a tractable mixed-integer linear programming reformulation and characterize the worst-case distribution. Computational experiments are conducted on a modified 33-bus system. Our findings underscore the efficacy of the pricing strategies derived from the proposed bilevel optimization model. These strategies not only effectively manage DR participants' behavior but also bring equity considerations among households with various characteristics to light. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between distribution system operators and DR participants.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coupling morphological and magnetic anisotropy for assembling tetragonal colloidal crystals

Morphological and magnetic anisotropy can be combined in colloidal assembly to create unconventional secondary structures. We show here that magnetite nanorods interact along a critical angle, depending on their aspect ratios and assemble into body-centered tetragonal colloidal crystals. Under a magnetic field, size-dependent attractive and repulsive domains develop on the ends and center of the nanorods, respectively. Our joint experiment-computational multiscale study demonstrates the presence of a critical angle in the attractive domain, which defines the equilibrium bonding states of interacting rods and leads to the formation of non–close-packed yet hard-contact tetragonal crystals. Small-angle x-ray scattering measurement attributes the perfect tetragonal phase to the slow assembly kinetics. The crystals exhibit brilliant structural colors, which can be actively tuned by changing the magnetic field direction. These highly ordered frameworks and well-defined three-dimensional nanochannels may offer new opportunities for manipulating nanoscale chemical transformation, mass transportation, and wave propagation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

PACE

Performance Analytics for Computational Experiments (PACE) is an end-to-end performance monitoring infrastructure to summarize performance data collected from Department of Energy’s (DOE) climate model experiments to derive insights and present them through a web portal. PACE automatically captures provenance/timing data from simulations run on DOE supercomputers.

Sreepathi, Sarat [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Contour Location

The joint contour location method is an active learning technique that identifies input configurations that return pre-specified values of multiple independent computer experiments simultaneously. This code works with both Gaussian Processes and Deep Gaussian Processes

Quinlan, KevinR [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Applying the ATOM drug discovery platform to small-molecule antivirals (Annual Report)

The objective of this project is to advance our understanding of the ML approaches needed to find the most potent inhibitor through an AI guided search that simultaneously optimizes for limited off-target safety activity and desirable pharmacokinetics (PK) properties. The methods will be tested for inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 activity through inhibition of the main protease as a demonstration, but the methodology will be developed to apply to any biothreat target using a small-molecule protein binding-based intervention, with limited experimental data. Computational experiments are conducted using our ATOM generative molecular design (GMD) loop software, which is the implementation of our AI/ML drug design pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model run output for WM-ABM 2024 HESS Publication

Model output for computational experiments introducing WM-ABM. See associated HESS publication here: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1604/ all_nldas_cdl_data_v3.txt - Cropland Data Layer data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution for input into the PMP calibration process. Variables include NLDAS ID, crop type, year, the count of pixels in the grid cell of the crop type, CDL crop ID, and GCAM crop ID. 20230115 ABM runs - WM-ABM model outputs for various scenarios described in HESS publication. If multiple versions exist (e.g., v2, v3, etc.) latest version indicates dataset generated for manuscript. The "baseline" run is the primary run, where as the "memXX" runs indicate sensitivity runs testing different parameters of agent memory. Output files starting with "abm_results_" include groundwater irrigated acres and surface water irrigated acres for each farm/agent combination. Other CSV outputs provide summary statistics of various agent and water shortage outcomes, used for generation of figures in the HESS manuscript.

ABM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Radiological Source Term Estimation for Multiple Sources in Cluttered Environments

A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. A series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.

Kemp, Samuel↗

DOE OSTI2023

On-Sensor Data Filtering using Neuromorphic Computing for High Energy Physics Experiments

This work describes the investigation of neuromorphic computing-based spiking neural network (SNN) models used to filter data from sensor electronics in high energy physics experiments conducted at the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider. We present our approach for developing a compact neuromorphic model that filters out the sensor data based on the particle's transverse momentum with the goal of reducing the amount of data being sent to the downstream electronics. The incoming charge waveforms are converted to streams of binary-valued events, which are then processed by the SNN. We present our insights on the various system design choices - from data encoding to optimal hyperparameters of the training algorithm - for an accurate and compact SNN optimized for hardware deployment. Our results show that an SNN trained with an evolutionary algorithm and an optimized set of hyperparameters obtains a signal efficiency of about 91% with nearly half as many parameters as a deep neural network.

R. Kulkarni, Shruti↗

DOE OSTI2021

Laser-driven flyer plate impact: Computational studies guided by experiments

We present a computational approach using a multimaterial, arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian code termed ALE3D to model the nanosecond/micrometer dynamics of the launch of 0.5–4.5 km/s laser-driven metal flyer plates and the impact with stationary targets of Pyrex and fused silica glasses, and Lexan and Plexiglas polymers, producing pressures in the target in the range of 5–20 GPa. The simulations are compared to experimental results where the flyer velocity profile and the velocity profile imparted to the target material were measured with high-speed velocimetry. The experimental flyer launch by a high-intensity pulsed laser is modeled by depositing heat into a thin vaporizable layer under the flyer plate. This model produces a flyer plate that has not been exposed to the laser pulse, allowing us to compare the properties of the real flyer to a simulated ideal flyer. The simulations of target impact are generally in good agreement with the experiment except at the highest impact velocities where the shock release process in the experiment is slower than that in the simulation. The cause of this disagreement is attributed to an inadequate description of the shock viscosity during the nanosecond unloading process.

Stekovic, Svjetlana (ORCID:0000000163878070)↗