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At least 91 records · Page 5

Cantilever with a collocated piezoelectric actuator-sensor pair

Illustrative embodiments provide an apparatus comprising a substrate comprising a cantilever, a bottom electrode on the substrate, a bottom piezoelectric transducer on the bottom electrode such that the bottom electrode is between the substrate and the bottom piezoelectric transducer, a middle electrode on the bottom piezoelectric transducer such that the bottom piezoelectric transducer is between the bottom electrode and the middle electrode, a top piezoelectric transducer on the middle electrode such that the middle electrode is between the bottom piezoelectric transducer and the top piezoelectric transducer, and a top electrode on the top piezoelectric transducer, such that the top piezoelectric transducer is between the middle electrode and the top electrode. Illustrative embodiments also provide a method of making the apparatus and a method of using the apparatus for atomic force microscopy.

Moheimani, Seyed Omid Reza↗

HybridSystemsSimulations.jl - Solving the Merchant Collocated Facilities with JuMP

The development of new clean-generation technologies also leads to new plant-level architectures that combine several generation and storage assets behind the point of connection. These co-located generation resources (Hybrid Systems) primarily operate as merchant assets that employ automated market bidding models and internal Energy Management Systems (EMS) to comply with the operator's signals. Formulating an optimal bidding model requires embedding the EMS control model into the bidding algorithm, resulting in a bi-level optimization problem. In this presentation, we first showcase using JuMP to formulate and solve this problem effectively for multiple merchant systems and the bidding outcomes considering different model formulations. Second, the bidding outcomes are later integrated into a PowerSimulations.jl (also built with JuMP) simulation to study the system-level effects of the various merchant bidding and the interactions between market-clearing models and the embedded EMS model. We will showcase simulations conducted in the RTS system considering different levels of merchant hybrid systems participation. The presentation provides the following specific insights on JuMP usage: 1) the Formulation of specialized bi-level problems with custom cuts to solve the merchant hybrid system bidding problem; 2) the integration of a modular model within a complex simulation workflow supported by JuMP in PowerSimulations.jl; 3) Accelerating the solution of power systems operations simulation that employ agent optimization problems using JuMP.

energy markets↗

New Approach to Eccentric Positioning of Fuel Assemblies in a Spent Fuel Pool

Criticality analyses of a spent fuel pool (SFP) typically assume the fuel assemblies are centered in the cells. In reality fuel assemblies are not constrained to be centered but can be placed anywhere within the available space. For SFPs with absorber panels it has been shown that the most reactive condition is with the fuel assemblies centered. However, for SFPs without absorber panels eccentric positioning of assemblies increases reactivity. Historically, it was common practice to analyze eccentric positioning by modeling a 2x2 arrangement of the fuel where each assembly is positioned toward the center (with reflective or periodic bounding conditions). The delta k between the eccentric model and the center model was taken as an uncertainty which was then statistically combined with other uncertainties. This historical approach had two problems. First, arrangement of more than 4 assemblies placed toward the center of the model produced higher k's. Second, in a large pool it was likely that 4 assemblies collocated toward each other would exist so asymmetry should be treated as a bias rather than an uncertainty. The number of collocated assemblies is important to the magnitude of the effect. Since spent fuel pools are large it is expected that some collocated eccentrically placed assemblies will occur so the eccentric placement reactivity should be accounted for by a bias. The magnitude of this bias depends greatly on the number of eccentrically placed assemblies that are collocated. A simple probability model assuming random placement can be used to establish the number of collated eccentric assemblies. It has been shown that for a SFP with 800 cells there is less than a 5% probability that more than 16 eccentric assemblies will be collocated. The eccentricity bias using 16 eccentric assemblies collocated is small (on the order of 0.001 in delta k or less) and should be easy to add as a bias in the SFP criticality analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Stratiform and Convective Precipitation Observed by Multiple Radars during the DYNAMO/AMIE Experiment

The motivation for this research is to develop a precipitation classification and rain rate estimation method using cloud radar-only measurements for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) long-term cloud observation analysis, which are crucial and unique for studying cloud lifecycle and precipitation features under different weather and climate regimes. Based on simultaneous and collocated observations of the Ka-band ARM zenith radar (KAZR), two precipitation radars (NCAR S-PolKa and Texas A&M University SMART-R), and surface precipitation during the DYNAMO/AMIE field campaign, a new cloud radar-only based precipitation classification and rain rate estimation method has been developed and evaluated. The resulting precipitation classification is equivalent to those collocated SMART-R and S-PolKa observations. Both cloud and precipitation radars detected about 5% precipitation occurrence during this period. The convective (stratiform) precipitation fraction is about 18% (82%). The 2-day collocated disdrometer observations show an increased number concentration of large raindrops in convective rain compared to dominant concentration of small raindrops in stratiform rain. The composite distributions of KAZR reflectivity and Doppler velocity also show two distinct structures for convective and stratiform rain. These indicate that the method produces physically consistent results for two types of rain. The cloud radar-only rainfall estimation is developed based on the gradient of accumulative radar reflectivity below 1 km, near-surface Ze, and collocated surface rainfall (R) measurement. The parameterization is compared with the Z-R exponential relation. The relative difference between estimated and surface measured rainfall rate shows that the two-parameter relation can improve rainfall estimation.

convective↗

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗

Cloud, Aerosol and Boundary Layer Structure across the Northeast Pacific Stratocumulus-Cumulus Transition as observed during CSET

During the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field study, 14 research flights of the National Science Foundation G-V sampled the stratocumulus-cumulus transition between Northern California and Hawaii and its synoptic variability. The G-V made vertically resolved measurements of turbulence, cloud microphysics, aerosol characteristics, and trace gases. It also carried dropsondes and a vertically pointing W-band radar and lidar. This paper summarizes these observations with the goals of fostering novel comparisons with theory, models and reanalyses, and satellite-derived products. A longitude-height binning and compositing strategy mitigates limitations of sparse sampling and spatiotemporal variability. Typically, a 1-km-deep decoupled stratocumulus-capped boundary layer near California evolved into 2-km-deep precipitating cumulus clusters surrounded by patches of thin stratus that dissipated toward Hawaii. Low cloud cover was correlated with estimated inversion strength more than with cloud droplet number, even though the thickest clouds were generally precipitating and ultraclean layers indicative of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction were common west of 140 degrees W. Accumulation-mode aerosol concentration correlated well with collocated cloud droplet number concentration and was typically largest near the surface. Aitken mode aerosol concentration was typically larger in the free troposphere. Wildfire smoke produced spikes of aerosol and trace gases on some flights. CSET data are compared with space-time collocated output from MERRA-2 reanalysis and from the CAM6 climate model run with winds and temperature nudged toward this reanalysis. The reanalysis compares better with the observed relative humidity than does nudged CAM6. Both vertically diffuse the stratocumulus cloud layer versus observations. MERRA-2 slightly underestimates in situ carbon monoxide measurements and underestimates ozone depletion within the boundary layer.

Bretherton, Christopher S.↗

Stochastic multiscale flux basis for Stokes-Darcy flows

Three algorithms are developed for uncertainty quantification in modeling coupled Stokes and Darcy flows. The porous media may consist of multiple regions with different properties. The permeability is modeled as a non-stationary stochastic variable, with its log represented as a sum of local Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions. The problem is approximated by stochastic collocation on either tensor-product or sparse grids, coupled with a multiscale mortar mixed finite element method for the spatial discretization. A non-overlapping domain decomposition algorithm reduces the global problem to a coarse scale mortar interface problem, which is solved by an iterative solver, for each stochastic realization. In the traditional domain decomposition implementation, each subdomain solves a local Dirichlet or Neumann problem in every interface iteration. To reduce this cost, two additional algorithms based on deterministic or stochastic multiscale flux basis are introduced. The basis consists of the local flux (or velocity trace) responses from each mortar degree of freedom. It is computed for each subdomain independently before the interface iteration begins. The use of the multiscale flux basis avoids the need for subdomain solves on each iteration. The deterministic basis is computed at each stochastic collocation and used only at this realization. The stochastic basis is formed by further looping over all local realizations of a subdomain's KL region before the stochastic collocation begins. It is used over multiple realizations. Numerical tests are presented to illustrate the performance of the three algorithms, with the stochastic multiscale flux basis showing significant savings in computational cost compared to the other two algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An efficient computational algorithm for pricing European, barrier and American options

In this work, we use the spectral collocation technique for spatial derivatives and predictor–corrector method for time integration to solve the Black–Scholes (B–S) equation. If the spectral collocation method is worked properly, then we get high accuracy in the numerical solutions. Firstly, theory of application of Chebyshev spectral collocation technique and domain decomposition method on the B–S equation is presented. This method gets a stiff system of differential equations. Secondly, by using the predictor–corrector method with variable step size, we obtain the high accuracy approximate solution in the numerical integration of the stiff system of DEs. We present the order of accuracy for the proposed method. The numerical results show the efficiency and validity of the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of convergence behavior of metamodeling techniques for bridging scales in multi-scale multimaterial simulation

The effectiveness of several metamodeling techniques, viz. the Polynomial Stochastic Collocation method, Adaptive Stochastic Collocation method, a Radial Basis Function Neural Network, a Kriging Method and a Dynamic Kriging Method is evaluated. This is done with the express purpose of using metamodels to bridge scales between micro- and macro-scale models in a multi-scale multimaterial simulation. The rate of convergence of the error when used to reconstruct hypersurfaces of known functions is studied. For sufficiently large number of training points, Stochastic Collocation methods generally converge faster than the other metamodeling techniques, while the DKG method converges faster when the number of input points is less than 100 in a two-dimensional parameter space. Because the input points correspond to computationally expensive micro/meso-scale computations, the DKG is favored for bridging scales in a multi-scale solver.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A high-order relativistic two-fluid electrodynamic scheme with consistent reconstruction of electromagnetic fields and a multidimensional Riemann solver for electromagnetism

In various astrophysics settings it is common to have a two-fluid relativistic plasma that interacts with the electromagnetic field. While it is common to ignore the displacement current in the ideal, classical magnetohydrodynamic limit, when the flows become relativistic this approximation is less than absolutely well-justified. In such a situation, it is more natural to consider a positively charged fluid made up of positrons or protons interacting with a negatively charged fluid made up of electrons. The two fluids interact collectively with the full set of Maxwell's equations. As a result, a solution strategy for that coupled system of equations is sought and found here. Our strategy extends to higher orders, providing increasing accuracy. The primary variables in the Maxwell solver are taken to be the facially-collocated components of the electric and magnetic fields. Consistent with such a collocation, three important innovations are reported here. The first two pertain to the Maxwell solver. In our first innovation, the magnetic field within each zone is reconstructed in a divergence-free fashion while the electric field within each zone is reconstructed in a form that is consistent with Gauss' law. In our second innovation, a multidimensionally upwinded strategy is presented which ensures that the magnetic field can be updated via a discrete interpretation of Faraday's law and the electric field can be updated via a discrete interpretation of the generalized Ampere's law. This multidimensional upwinding is achieved via a multidimensional Riemann solver. The multidimensional Riemann solver automatically provides edge-centered electric field components for the Stokes law-based update of the magnetic field. It also provides edge-centered magnetic field components for the Stokes law-based update of the electric field. The update strategy ensures that the electric field is always consistent with Gauss' law and the magnetic field is always divergence-free. This collocation also ensures that electromagnetic radiation that is propagating in a vacuum has both electric and magnetic fields that are exactly divergence-free. Coupled relativistic fluid dynamic equations are solved for the positively and negatively charged fluids. The fluids' numerical fluxes also provide a self-consistent current density for the update of the electric field. Our reconstruction strategy ensures that fluid velocities always remain sub-luminal. Our third innovation consists of an efficient design for several popular IMEX schemes so that they provide strong coupling between the finite-volume-based fluid solver and the electromagnetic fields at high order. This innovation makes it possible to efficiently utilize high order IMEX time update methods for stiff source terms in the update of high order finite-volume methods for hyperbolic conservation laws. We also show that this very general innovation should extend seamlessly to Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin methods. The IMEX schemes enable us to use large CFL numbers even in the presence of stiff source terms. Several accuracy analyses are presented showing that our method meets its design accuracy in the MHD limit as well as in the limit of electromagnetic wave propagation. Several stringent test problems are also presented. We also present a relativistic version of the GEM problem, which shows that our algorithm can successfully adapt to challenging problems in high energy astrophysics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Relationships Between Mesoscale Convective System Properties and Midlevel Dynamic Perturbations

Abstract Past studies implicate dynamic anomalies operating on subsynoptic scales as a possible initiation source of summertime (July–August) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States during northwesterly flow regimes. To improve our understanding of warm season MCSs occurring over a variety of flow regimes, we track midlevel (600 hPa) vorticity perturbations (“MPs”) as 2D objects comprising wavelengths of 500–2,500 km over the central US from May–August of 2004–2021. We perform statistical analysis of relationships between metrics of MP objects (e.g., duration, size, intensity, and origin) and high‐resolution MCS precipitation characteristics (e.g., duration, total rainfall, rain coverage area, and motion) that occur while collocated with or in the absence of MPs to discern predictive capability of background dynamic features on storm precipitation potential. Although the majority of MPs collocated with MCS initiation occur during July–August, a significant number (40%) occur between May and June. Northwesterly flow MPs comprise a relative minority of our events, suggesting that MPs can affect MCSs across a variety of warm season flow regimes. MPs affecting MCSs initiated primarily over the high plains near the central Rockies. Only approximately 20% of tracked MCS initiation events were collocated with MPs, but these storms produced ∼25% greater lifetime rainfall and coverage area, and ∼29% more stratiform rain than non‐MP‐induced MCSs. In general, larger and more vigorous MPs resulted in more hydrologically impactful MCSs. The most directly attributable benefit to MCS initiation was from MP‐enhanced background vertical motion and thermodynamic instability (e.g., increased CAPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Shortwave Spectral Radiometer for Atmospheric Science: Capabilities and Applications from the ARM User Facility

Industry advances have greatly reduced the cost and size of ground-based shortwave (SW) sensors for the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared spectral ranges that make up the solar spectrum, while simultaneously increasing their ruggedness, reliability, and calibration accuracy needed for outdoor operation. These sensors and collocated meteorological equipment are an important part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, which has supported parallel integrated measurements of atmospheric and surface properties for more than two decades at fixed and mobile sites around the world. The versatile capability of these ground-based measurements includes 1) rich spectral information required for retrieving cloud and aerosol microphysical properties, such as cloud phase, cloud particle size, and aerosol size distributions, and 2) high temporal resolution needed for capturing fast evolution of cloud microphysical properties in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions. Here we describe examples of how ARM's spectral radiation measurements are being used to improve understanding of the complex processes governing microphysical, optical, and radiative properties of clouds and aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the hyperspectral radiometer (HSR1) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site

Abstract. The Peak Design Ltd hyperspectral radiometer (HSR1) was tested at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Lamont, Oklahoma, for 2 months from May to July 2022. The HSR1 is a prototype instrument that measures total (Ftotal) and diffuse (Fdiffuse) spectral irradiance from 360 to 1100 nm with a spectral resolution of 3 nm. The HSR1 spectral irradiance measurements are compared to nearby collocated spectral radiometers, including two multifilter rotating shadowband radiometers (MFRSRs) and the Shortwave Array Spectroradiometer–Hemispheric (SASHe) radiometer. The Ftotal at 500 nm for the HSR1 compared to the MFRSRs has a mean (relative) difference of 0.01 W m−2 nm−1 (1 %–2 %). The HSR1 mean Fdiffuse at 500 nm is smaller than the MFRSRs' by 0.03–0.04 (10 %) W m−2 nm−1. The HSR1 clear-sky aerosol optical depth (AOD) is also retrieved by considering Langley regressions and compared to collocated instruments such as the Cimel sunphotometer (CSPHOT), MFRSRs, and SASHe. The mean HSR1 AOD at 500 nm is larger than the CSPHOT's by 0.010 (8 %) and larger than the MFRSRs' by 0.007–0.017 (6 %–18 %). In general, good agreement between the HSR1 and other instruments is found in terms of the Ftotal, Fdiffuse, and AODs at 500 nm. The HSR1 quantities are also compared at other wavelengths to the collocated instruments. The comparisons are within ∼ 10 % for the Ftotal and Fdiffuse, except for 940 nm, where there is relatively larger disagreement. The AOD comparisons are within ∼ 10 % at 415 and 440 nm; however, a relatively larger disagreement in the AOD comparison is found for higher wavelengths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marine and continental stratocumulus cloud microphysical properties obtained from routine ARM Cimel sunphotometer observations

This study investigates marine and continental stratocumulus (Sc) cloud properties obtained from an automated implementation of a multispectral photometer retrieval. Photometer methods simultaneously retrieve cloud optical depth (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (r e ), with estimates for liquid water path (LWP) calculated on the availability of those quantities. These applied methods evaluate retrieved cloud properties for Sc identified during a recent 6 year period over the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites in Oklahoma, USA (SGP) and in the Azores, Portugal (ENA). Modest agreement in key quantity retrievals is found between the routine photometer products and multisensor collocated profiling references. Cumulative breakdowns contingent on cloud thickness indicate increases in all retrieved quantities in thicker clouds, with larger discrepancies in the relative performance between the retrievals collected in the presence of drizzle. Under continental cloud conditions, the clouds of a similar thickness and r e to those sampled under marine conditions report a factor of 1.5 larger τ and LWP. An r 2 ≅0.65 is found between photometer τ retrievals and shadowband radiometer measurements, with photometer retrievals reporting a high (relative) bias. The τ intercomparisons indicate that variability between retrievals is a factor of three larger than errors reported from individual retrieval input perturbation tests. Photometer r e retrievals suggest a low r 2 (< 0.1) having a standard deviation ≅ 3 µm when compared to ARM baseline multi-sensor radar/radiometer references (accounting for offsets in the cloud droplet number concentration assumptions of the latter). However, photometer LWP calculations remain relatively unbiased in non-drizzling conditions, with errors O (50 g m −2 ) and r 2 ≅0.5 to collocated radiometer and interferometer references. Additional sensitivity tests for island influences on marine Sc properties suggest that while island-influenced winds may promote larger cloud LWP or thickness, the influence could be within retrieval method uncertainty and/or collocated instrument variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

Strongly heterogeneous media arise in several applications that include radiation shields, nuclear fuel, BWR moderators, clouds, planetary and stellar atmospheres, turbulent gases and plasmas. Neutral and charged particle transport computations in such media have relied heavily on formulating transport equations with spatially random coefficients (physical data) and developing solution methods to deal with the additional stochastic dimensions. Attempts at developing approximate closures that yield only low order statistical information (e.g., mean and variance of the flux) have proved to be highly restrictive under real physics conditions or rely on techniques that require fluctuation amplitudes to be small for robustness. Recently, stochastic spectral methods such as polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation have been developed for aleatoric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, and successfully applied in radiation transport work. Advances in UQ techniques have tended to focus on efficiently handling large numbers of uncertain variables but the rigorous stochastic basis of the approach also promotes its use in situations where stochasticity is due to spatial heterogeneity and the associated uncertainty is large. Here we apply these techniques to radiation transport in media with spatially randomly varying cross sections without restriction on fluctuation amplitudes. Specifically, we represent the cross sections as a lognormal spatial random process with specified mean, variance and covariance function and use a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition to generate cross section realizations that are strictly positive. Woodcock Monte Carlo (WMC) is then used to simulate transport using random sampling of cross sections and deterministic sampling based on a stochastic collocation technique. Numerical results for the mean and variance in the scalar flux and leakage currents are obtained for weak and strong random variations. We focus in this work on demonstrating the approach and defer application to specific problems to a future investigation. We have demonstrated that a combination of stochastic spectral representation and Woodcock Monte Carlo simulation allows efficient computation of radiation transport in strongly random media. The use of a lognormal distribution to represent the fluctuations in medium properties facilitates enforcement of strict positivity of cross section realizations, a condition that has challenged standard approaches that assume Gaussian fluctuations. The fact that the lognormal random process is a memoryless nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process further enables efficient and accurate reconstruction of the random cross section realizations using a Karhunen-Loeve representation of the cross section. Finally, the robustness of this model enables fluctuations of arbitrarily large amplitude to be studied, using both random sampling Monte Carlo and more efficient stochastic collocation techniques. The present work is being extended to allow reconstruction of probability density functions of output variables using polynomial chaos representation, and to accommodate general cross section covariance functions. Also, techniques are being explored to more judiciously select ceiling cross sections to enhance the efficiency of Woodcock Monte Carlo for transport in random media. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating Grid Strength under Uncertain Renewable Generation

The increasing displacement of synchronous generators with renewable resources such as wind and solar via power electronic interfaces causes a reduction in short-circuit strength and weak grid issues. The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy increase challenges for identifying weak grid conditions. This paper proposes an efficient method to analyze the impact of uncertain renewable energy on grid strength. The proposed method uses the probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to approximate the results of grid strength assessment under uncertain renewable generation, in order to reduce computational burden without compromising result accuracy when compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method integrates the K-means clustering technique with PCM to select the approximation samples of input variables. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with MCS on the modified IEEE 9-bus system and modified IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators.

grid strength↗

Seismicity on the western Greenland Ice Sheet: Surface fracture in the vicinity of active moulins

We analyzed geophone and GPS measurements collected within the ablation zone of the western Greenland Ice Sheet during a ~35 day period of the 2011 melt season to study changes in ice deformation before, during, and after a supraglacial lake drainage event. During rapid lake drainage, ice flow speeds increased to ~400% of winter values, and icequake activity peaked. At times >7 days after drainage, this seismicity developed variability over both diurnal and longer periods (~10 days), while coincident ice speeds fell to ~150% of winter values and showed nightly peaks in spatial variability. Approximately 95% of all detected seismicity in the lake basin and its immediate vicinity was triggered by fracture propagation within near-surface ice (<330 m deep) that generated Rayleigh waves. Icequakes occurring before and during drainage frequently were collocated with the down flow (west) end of the primary hydrofracture through which the lake drained but shifted farther west and outside the lake basin after the drainage. We interpret these results to reveal vertical hydrofracture opening and local uplift during the drainage, followed by enhanced seismicity and ice flow on the downstream side of the lake basin. This region collocates with interferometric synthetic aperture radar-measured speedup in previous years and could reflect the migration path of the meltwater supplied to the bed by the lake. The diurnal seismic signal can be associated with nightly reductions in surface melt input that increase effective basal pressure and traction, thereby promoting elevated strain in the surficial ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗