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NASA NTRS2022

The impacts of immersion ice nucleation parameterizations on Arctic mixed-phase stratiform cloud properties and the Arctic radiation budget in GEOS-5

The influence of four different immersion freezing parameterizations on Arctic clouds and the top-of-the atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation fluxes is investigated in the fifth version of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) with sea surface temperature, sea ice fraction and aerosol emissions held fixed. The different parameterizations were derived from a variety of sources, including classical nucleation theory, field and laboratory measurements. Despite the large spread in the ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in the parameterizations, the cloud properties and radiative fluxes had a tendency to form two groups, with the lower INP concentration category producing larger water path and low-level cloud fraction during winter and early spring, whereas the opposite occurred during the summer season. The stability of the lower troposphere was found to strongly correlate with low-cloud fraction, and along with the effect of ice nucleation, ice sedimentation and melting rates, appears to explain the spring-to-summer reversal pattern in the relative magnitude of the cloud properties between the two categories of simulations. The strong modulation effect of the liquid phase on immersion freezing led to the successful simulation of the characteristic Arctic cloud structure, with a layer rich in supercooled water near cloud top and ice and snow at lower levels. Comparison with satellite retrievals and in situ data suggest that simulations with low INP concentrations more realistically represent Arctic clouds and radiation.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1980

Ultraviolet contrasts and the absorbers near the Venus cloud tops

The UV measurements of the Venus atmosphere absorbers constrain the location, altitude, and identity near the Venus cloud tops. The spin-scan images observed by the Pioneer Venus orbiter spectrometer (UVS) and the cloud photopolarimeter measure contrasts in the 1990-3650 A range and at phase angles between 33 and 130 deg; the planet is darkest at the location where the UVS line of sight penetrates in the direction perpendicular to the cloud tops. SO2 absorption accounts for the contrast from 2000 to 3200 A; the persistence of contrast at longer wavelengths requires another absorber at about 75-mbar altitude. The correlation between the planetary differences and polarization does not need large-scale clearing or major vertical motions of the cloud tops as the main cause of the observed variations.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the use of IR lidar and K(sub a)-band radar for observing cirrus clouds

Advances in lidar and radar technology have potential for providing new and better information on climate significant parameters of cirrus. Consequently, the NOAA Wave Propagation Lab. is commencing CLARET (Cloud Lidar And Radar Exploratory Test) to evaluate the promise of these new capabilities. Parameters under study include cloud particle size distribution, height of cloud bases, tops, and multiple layers, and cloud dynamics revealed through measurement of vertical motions. The first phase of CLARET is planned for Sept. 1989. The CO2 coherent Doppler lidar and the sensitive K sub a band radar hold promise for providing valuable information on cirrus that is beyond the grasp of current visible lidars.

Eberhard, Wynn L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Absorbers seen near the Venus cloud tops from Pioneer Venus

Pioneer Venus Orbiter measurements of planetary contrast at the Venus cloud tops are discussed. Images of the cloud tops at wavelengths between 1990 and 3400 A were obtained by the Pioneer UV Spectrometer together with broadband imagery and polarimetry at 2700 and 3650 A from the Orbiter Cloud Photopolarimeter at Venus phase angles of 33 to 130 deg. The planet is found to be darkest at the point where the UV Spectrometer line of sight penetrates perpendicular to the cloud tops, indicating that the absorbing material must be deep in the atmosphere. The contrast observed at wavelengths shortward of 3200 A is explained by SO2 absorption in the dark regions, while the persistence of the contrast at longer wavelengths requires the presence of an additional absorber or absorbers closely associated with the SO2, and a haze of submicron particles overlying the cloud tops in the bright regions. The correlations found between contrast and polarization indicate that no single constituent or change in vertical structure can account for the UV contrast. The origin of the markings is instead explained by a model in which absorbers subject to photochemical destruction are mixed upward into the cloud top region.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Backscatter-to-Extinction Ratios in the Top Layers of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems and in Isolated Cirrus from LITE Observations

Cloud-integrated attenuated backscatter from observations with the Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) was studied over a range of cirrus clouds capping some extensive mesoscale convective systems (MCSS) in the Tropical West Pacific. The integrated backscatter when the cloud is completely attenuating, and when corrected for multiple scattering, is a measure of the cloud particle backscatter phase function. Four different cases of MCS were studied. The first was very large, very intense, and fully attenuating, with cloud tops extending to 17 km and a maximum lidar pulse penetration of about 3 km. It also exhibited the highest integrated attenuated isotropic backscatter, with values in the 532-nm channel of up to 2.5 near the center of the system, falling to 0.6 near the edges. The second MCS had cloud tops that extended to 14.8 km. Although MCS2 was almost fully attenuating, the pulse penetration into the cloud was up to 7 km and the MCS2 had a more diffuse appearance than MCS1. The integrated backscatter values were much lower in this system but with some systematic variations between 0.44 and 0.75. The third MCS was Typhoon Melissa. Values of integrated backscatter in tt-ds case varied from 1.64 near the eye of the typhoon to between 0.44 and 1.0 in the areas of typhoon outflow and in the 532-nm channel. Mean pulse penetration through the cloud top was 2-3 km, the lowest penetration of any of the systems. The fourth MCS consisted of a region of outflow from Typhoon Melissa. The cloud was semitransparent for more than half of the image time. During that time, maximum cloud depth was about 7 km. The integrated backscatter varied from about 0.38 to 0.63 in the 532-nm channel when the cloud was fully attenuating. In some isolated cirrus between the main systems, a plot of integrated backscatter against one minus the two-way transmittance gave a linear dependence with a maximum value of 0.35 when the clouds were fully attenuating. The effective backscatter-to-extinction ratios, when allowing for different multiple-scattering factors from space, were often within the range of those observed with ground-based lidar. Exceptions occurred near the centers of the most intense convection, where values were measured that were considerably higher than those in cirrus observed from the surface. In this case, the values were more compatible with theoretical values for perfectly formed hexagonal columns or plates. The large range in theoretically calculated back- scatter-to-extinction ratio and integrated multiple-scattering factor precluded a closer interpretation in terms of cloud microphysics.

Platt, C. M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The mesoscale stability of entrainment into cloud-topped mixed layers

The Lilly-type models for stratocumulus-capped mixed layers are shown to allow for a mesoscale instability in which mesoscale fluctuations of buoyancy and humidity are reinforced in phase by entrainment. In a model of an AMTEX mixed layer, this mesoscale instability has a maximum growth rate of about 0.00002 per sec at wavelengths 30 times the depth of the mixed layer. The instability is able to account for the existence and broad scale of the stratiform cloud patterns known as mesoscale cellular convection.

Fiedler, B. H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Background Noises Versus Intraseasonal Variation Signals: Small vs. Large Convective Cloud Objects From CERES Aqua Observations

During inactive phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), there are plenty of deep but small convective systems and far fewer deep and large ones. During active phases of MJO, a manifestation of an increase in the occurrence of large and deep cloud clusters results from an amplification of large-scale motions by stronger convective heating. This study is designed to quantitatively examine the roles of small and large cloud clusters during the MJO life cycle. We analyze the cloud object data from Aqua CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) observations between July 2006 and June 2010 for tropical deep convective (DC) and cirrostratus (CS) cloud object types according to the real-time multivariate MJO index, which assigns the tropics to one of the eight MJO phases each day. The cloud object is a contiguous region of the earth with a single dominant cloud-system type. The criteria for defining these cloud types are overcast footprints and cloud top pressures less than 400 hPa, but DC has higher cloud optical depths (=10) than those of CS (<10). The size distributions, defined as the footprint numbers as a function of cloud object diameters, for particular MJO phases depart greatly from the combined (8-phase) distribution at large cloud-object diameters due to the reduced/increased numbers of cloud objects related to changes in the large-scale environments. The medium diameter corresponding to the combined distribution is determined and used to partition all cloud objects into "small" and "large" groups of a particular phase. The two groups corresponding to the combined distribution have nearly equal numbers of footprints. The medium diameters are 502 km for DC and 310 km for cirrostratus. The range of the variation between two extreme phases (typically, the most active and depressed phases) for the small group is 6-11% in terms of the numbers of cloud objects and the total footprint numbers. The corresponding range for the large group is 19-44%. In terms of the probability density functions of radiative and cloud physical properties, there are virtually no differences between the MJO phases for the small group, but there are significant differences for the large groups for both DC and CS types. These results suggest that the intreseasonal variation signals reside at the large cloud clusters while the small cloud clusters represent the background noises resulting from various types of the tropical waves with different wavenumbers and propagation speeds/directions.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS1984

Lidar observations of mixed layer dynamics - Tests of parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate

Ground based lidar measurements of the atmospheric mixed layer depth, the entrainment zone depth and the wind speed and wind direction were used to test various parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate. Six case studies under clear air convective conditions over flat terrain in central Illinois are presented. It is shown that surface heating alone accounts for a major portion of the rise of the mixed layer on all days. A new set of entrainment model constants was determined which optimized height predictions for the dataset. Under convective conditions, the shape of the mixed layer height prediction curves closely resembled the observed shapes. Under conditions when significant wind shear was present, the shape of the height prediction curve departed from the data suggesting deficiencies in the parameterization of shear production. Development of small cumulus clouds on top of the layer is shown to affect mixed layer depths in the afternoon growth phase.

Boers, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2D)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2004-05-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

EOSDIS↗
NASA NTRS1981

4-day waves in the Venus atmosphere

Ultraviolet albedo contrasts in the Venus atmosphere are probably large-scale atmospheric waves propagating slowly with respect to the rapid cloud-top zonal winds. Using a simple theoretical model and profiles of mean wind and thermal structure based on Pioneer Venus data, planetary-scale gravity waves with phase velocities matching the speeds of the UV markings are found. An upward-propagating wave, and waves trapped at cloud levels are proposed as candidates to explain the observed UV features.

Covey, C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Changes in TOA SW Fluxes over Marine Clouds When Estimated via Semiphysical Angular Distribution Models

Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) angular distribution models (ADMs) approximate—per angular direction of an imagined upward hemisphere—the intensity of sunlight scattered back from a specific Earth–atmosphere scene. ADMs are, thus, critical when converting satellite-borne broadband radiometry into estimated radiative fluxes. This paper applies a set of newly developed ADMs with a more refined scene definition and demonstrates tenable changes in estimated fluxes compared to currently operational ADMs. Newly developed ADMs use a semiphysical framework to consider cloud-top effective radius (¯¯R_e) and above-cloud water vapor (ACWV), in addition to accounting for surface wind speed and clouds’ phase, fraction, and optical depth. In effect, instantaneous TOA SW fluxes for marine liquid-phase clouds had the largest flux differences (of up to 25 W m−2) for lower solar zenith angles and cloud optical depth greater than 10 due to extremes in ¯¯R_e or ACWV. In regions where clouds had persistently extreme levels of ¯¯R_e (here mostly for ¯¯R_e < 7μm and ¯¯R_e > 15μm) or ACWV, instantaneous fluxes estimated from Aqua, Terra, Meteosat-8, and Meteosat-9 satellites using the two ADMs differed systematically, resulting in significant deviations in daily mean fluxes (up to ±10 W m^(−2)) and monthly mean fluxes (up to ±5 W m^(−2)). Flux estimates using newly developed, semiphysical ADMs may contribute to a better understanding of solar fluxes over low-level clouds. It remains to be seen whether aerosol indirect effects are impacted by these updates.

angular distribution models (ADMs)↗
NASA NTRS2006

What does Reflection from Cloud Sides tell us about Vertical Distribution of Cloud Droplet Sizes?

Cloud development, the onset of precipitation and the effect of aerosol on clouds depend on the structure of the cloud profiles of droplet size and phase. Aircraft measurements of cloud profiles are limited in their temporal and spatial extent. Satellites were used to observe cloud tops not cloud profiles with vertical profiles of precipitation-sized droplets anticipated from CloudSat. The recently proposed CLAIM-3D satellite mission (cloud aerosol interaction mission in 3-D) suggests to measure profiles of cloud microphysical properties by retrieving them from the solar and infrared radiation reflected or emitted from cloud sides. Inversion of measurements from the cloud sides requires rigorous understanding of the 3-dimentional(3-D) properties of clouds. Here we discuss the reflected sunlight from the cloud sides and top at two wavelengths: one nonabsorbing to solar radiation (0.67 microns) and one with liquid water efficient absorption of solar radiation (2.1 microns). In contrast to the plane-parallel approximation, a conventional approach to all current operational retrievals, 3-D radiative transfer is used for interpreting the observed reflectances. General properties of the radiation reflected from the sides of an isolated cloud are discussed. As a proof of concept, the paper shows a few examples of radiation reflected from cloud fields generated by a simple stochastic cloud model with the prescribed vertically resolved microphysics. To retrieve the information about droplet sizes, we propose to use the probability density function of the droplet size distribution and its first two moments instead of the assumption about fixed values of the droplet effective radius. The retrieval algorithm is based on the Bayesian theorem that combines prior information about cloud structure and microphysics with radiative transfer calculations.

Marshak, A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

What Does Reflection from Cloud Sides Tell Us About Vertical Distribution of Cloud Droplet Sizes?

Cloud development, the onset of precipitation and the effect of aerosol on clouds depend on the structure of the cloud profiles of droplet size and phase. Aircraft measurements of cloud profiles are limited in their temporal and spatial extent. Satellites were used to observe cloud tops not cloud profiles with vertical profiles of precipitation-sized droplets anticipated from Cloudsat. The recently proposed CLAIM-3D satellite mission (cloud aerosol interaction mission in 3D) suggests to measure profiles of cloud microphysical properties by retrieving them from the solar and infrared radiation reflected or emitted from cloud sides. Inversion of measurements from the cloud sides requires rigorous understanding of the 3-dimensional (3D) properties of clouds. Here we discuss the reflected sunlight from the cloud sides and top at two wavelengths: one nonabsorbing to solar radiation (0.67 micrometers) and one with liquid water efficient absorption of solar radiation (2.1 micrometers). In contrast to the plane-parallel approximation, a conventional approach to all current operational retrievals, 3D radiative transfer is used for interpreting the observed reflectances. General properties of the radiation reflected from the sides of an isolated cloud are discussed. As a proof of concept, the paper shows a few examples of radiation reflected from cloud fields generated by a simple stochastic cloud model with the prescribed vertically resolved microphysics. To retrieve the information about droplet sizes, we propose to use the probability density function of the droplet size distribution and its first two moments instead of the assumption about fixed values of the droplet effective radius. The retrieval algorithm is based on the Bayesian theorem that combines prior information about cloud structure and microphysics with radiative transfer calculations.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS1996

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO Cirrus Case Study: Cloud Optical Properties Determined by High Spectral Resolution Lidar

During the First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) cirrus intensive field observation (IFO) the High Spectral Resolution Lidar was operated from a roof top site on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Because the HSRL technique separately measures the molecular and cloud particle backscatter components of the lidar return, the optical thickness is determined independent of particle backscatter. This is accomplished by comparing the known molecular density distribution to the observed decrease in molecular backscatter signal with altitude. The particle to molecular backscatter ratio yields calibrated measurements of backscatter cross sections that can be plotted ro reveal cloud morphology without distortion due to attenuation. Changes in cloud particle size, shape, and phase affect the backscatter to extinction ratio (backscatter-phase function). The HSRL independently measures cloud particle backscatter phase function. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the HSRL cirrus cloud data acquired over an approximate 33 hour period of continuous near zenith observations. Correlations between small scale wind structure and cirrus cloud morphology have been observed. These correlations can bias the range averaging inherent in wind profiling lidars of modest vertical resolution, leading to increased measurement errors at cirrus altitudes. Extended periods of low intensity backscatter were noted between more strongly organized cirrus cloud activity. Optical thicknesses ranging from 0.01-1.4, backscatter phase functions between 0.02-0.065 sr (exp -1) and backscatter cross sections spanning 4 orders of magnitude were observed. the altitude relationship between cloud top and bottom boundaries and the cloud optical center altitude was dependent on the type of formation observed Cirrus features were observed with characteristic wind drift estimated horizontal sizes of 5-400 km. The clouds frequently exhibited cellular structure with vertical to horizontal dimension ratios of 1:5-1:1.

Grund, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

MIE Lidar proposed for the German Space Shuttle Mission D2

Firm plans for a second German Spacelab mission (D2-mission), originally scheduled for late 1988 is basically a zero-g mission, but will also include earth observation experiments. On board the D2-facility will allow performance of a number of different measurements with the goal to obtain performance data (cloud top heights, height of the planetary boundary layer, optical thickness, and cloud base height of thin and medium thick clouds, ice/water phase discriminatin for clouds, tropopause height, tropaspheric height, tropospheric aerosols, and stratospheric aerosols.

Renger, W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Single Satellite Footprint, TOA and Surface Fluxes, Clouds (SSF) data in HDF (CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Edition2A)

The Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product contains one hour of instantaneous Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SSF combines instantaneous CERES data with scene information from a higher-resolution imager such as Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on TRMM or Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Scene identification and cloud properties are defined at the higher imager resolution and these data are averaged over the larger CERES footprint. For each CERES footprint, the SSF contains the number of cloud layers and for each layer the cloud amount, height, temperature, pressure, optical depth, emissivity, ice and liquid water path, and water particle size. The SSF also contains the CERES filtered radiances for the total, shortwave (SW), and window (WN) channels and the unfiltered SW, longwave (LW), and WN radiances. The SW, LW, and WN radiances at spacecraft altitude are converted to Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes based on the imager defined scene. These TOA fluxes are used to estimate surface fluxes. Only footprints with adequate imager coverage are included on CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1the SSF which is much less than the full set of footprints on the CERES ES-8 product. The following CERES SSF data sets are currently available: CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A CER_SSF_TRMM-SIM-VIRS_Edition2_VIRSonly CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta1 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Beta2 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta2. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-09-16] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CLOUD LAYER AREA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CLEAR-SKY ALBEDO↗
NASA NTRS2014

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

The current Global Hawk flight rules would probably not have been effective in the single event of greatest concern (the Emily encounter). The cloud top had not reached 50,000 ft until minutes before the encounter. The TOT and lightning data would not have been available until near the overflight time since this was a rapidly growing cell. This case would have required a last‐minute diversion when lightning became frequent. Avoiding such a cell probably requires continual monitoring of the forward camera and storm scope, whether or not cloud tops have been exceeding specific limits. However, the current overflight rules as strictly interpreted would have prohibited significant fractions of the successful Global Hawk overpasses of Karl and Matthew that proved not to be hazardous. Many other high altitude aircraft (ER‐2 and Global Hawk) flights in NASA tropical cyclone field programs have successfully overflown deep convective clouds without incident.The convective cell that caused serious concern about the safety of the ER‐2 in Emily was especially strong for a tropical cyclone environment, probably as strong or stronger than any that was overflown by the ER‐2 in 20 previous flights over tropical cyclones. Specifically, what made that cell a safety concern was the magnitude of the vertical velocity of the updraft, at least 20 m/s (4000 ft/minute) at the time the ER‐2 overflew it. Such a strong updraft can generate strong gravity waves at and above the tropopause, posing a potential danger to aircraft far above the maximum altitude of the updraft itself or its associated cloud top. Indeed, the ER‐2 was probably at least 9000 ft above that cloud top. Cloud‐top height, by itself, is not an especially good indicator of the intensity of convection and the likelihood of turbulence. Nor is overflying high cloud tops (i.e. > 50,000 ft) of particular concern unless there is other evidence of very strong convective updrafts beneath those tops in the path of the aircraft. center dot Lightning, especially lightning with a high flash rate, is well correlated with convective intensity. Lightning with a minimal flash rate (say 1‐3 flashes per minute) is indicative of updraft speeds of about 10 m/s in the mixed phase region where charge is being separated, generally at altitudes about 20‐25 kft in a hurricane. That is still stronger than typical updrafts (more like 5 m/s). An unresolved issue is whether there is a high and instantaneous correlation between vertical velocity in the middle troposphere (necessary for lightning generation) and near cloud top (more direct concern for overflights).

Cecil, Daniel J.↗