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Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques

We introduce new parameterizations for autoconversion and accretion rates that greatly improve representation of the growth processes of warm rain. The new parameterizations capitalize on machine‐learning and optimization techniques and are constrained by in situ cloud probe measurements from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program field campaign at Azores. The uncertainty in the new estimates of autoconversion and accretion rates is about 15% and 5%, respectively, outperforming existing parameterizations. Our results confirm that cloud and drizzle water content are the most important factors for determining accretion rates. However, for autoconversion, in addition to cloud water content and droplet number concentration, we discovered a key role of drizzle number concentration that is missing in current parameterizations. The robust relation between autoconversion rate and drizzle number concentration is surprising but real, and furthermore supported by theory. Thus, drizzle number concentration should be considered in parameterizations for improved representation of the autoconversion process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Cloud Microphysical Processes. Final report

The primary goal of our team’s effort under this grant was to quantify Arctic lower-troposphere processes by tying data from the large suite of NSA instruments to modeling efforts indirectly through data assimilation and directly through remote sensing and cloud modeling efforts. We maintained a distinct focus on how the ARM measurements may be used evaluate model simulations and/or physical processes. We will separate this report into two distinct sections: our data assimilation effort and the use of NSA instruments to improve our understanding and modeling of model physics to better characterize the critical surface energy budget in polar regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Aerosol variability, synoptic‐scale processes, and their link to the cloud microphysics over the northeast Pacific during MAGIC

Abstract Shipborne aerosol measurements collected from October 2012 to September 2013 along 36 transects between the port of Los Angeles, California (33.7°N, 118.2°), and Honolulu, Hawaii (21.3°N, 157.8°W), during the Marine ARM GPCI (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)‐Cloud System Study (GCSS)‐Pacific Cross‐section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds campaign are analyzed to determine the circulation patterns that modulate the synoptic and monthly variability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the boundary layer. Seasonal changes in CCN are evident, with low magnitudes during autumn/winter, and high CCN during spring/summer accompanied with a characteristic westward decrease. CCN monthly evolution is consistent with satellite‐derived cloud droplet number concentration N d from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. One‐point correlation ( r ) analysis between the 1000 hPa zonal wind time series over a region between 125°W and 135°W, 35°N and 45°N, and the N d field yields a negative r (up to −0.55) over a domain that covers a zonal extent of at least 20° from the California shoreline, indicating that N d decreases when the zonal wind intensifies. The negative r expands southwestward as the zonal wind precedes N d by up to 3 days, suggesting a transport mechanism from the coast of North America mediated by the California low‐coastal jet, which intensifies in summer when the aerosol concentration and N d reach a maximum. A first assessment of aerosol‐cloud interaction (ACI) is performed by combining CCN and satellite N d values from the Fifteenth Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The CCN‐ N d correlation is 0.66–0.69, and the ACI metric defined as ACI = ∂ln( N d )/∂ln(CCN) is high at 0.9, similar to other aircraft‐based studies and substantially greater than those inferred from satellites and climate models.

Painemal, David↗

An Evaluation of Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Scheme Numerics for Use with Radar Observations. Part I: Collision–Coalescence

This study evaluates some available schemes designed to solve the stochastic collection equation (SCE) for collision–coalescence of hydrometeors using a size-resolved (bin) microphysics approach and documents their numerical properties within the framework of a box model. Comparing three widely used SCE schemes, we find that all converge to almost identical solutions at sufficiently fine mass grids. However, one scheme converges far slower than the other two and shows pronounced numerical diffusion at the large-drop tail of the size distribution. One of the remaining two schemes is recommended on the basis that it is well converged on a relatively coarse mass grid, stable for large time steps, strictly mass conservative, and computationally efficient. To examine the effects of SCE scheme choice on simulating clouds and precipitation, two of the three schemes are compared in large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field. A forward simulator that produces Doppler spectra from the large-eddy simulation results is used to compare the model output directly with radar observations. The scheme with pronounced numerical diffusion predicts excessively large mean Doppler velocities and overly broad and negatively skewed spectra compared with observations, consistent with numerical diffusion demonstrated in the box model. Statistics obtained using the recommended scheme are closer to observations, but notable differences remain, indicating that factors other than SCE scheme accuracy are limiting simulation fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling of Turbulence and Microphysics in a Convection–Cloud Chamber of Varying Height

Abstract The convection–cloud chamber enables measurement of aerosol and cloud microphysics, as well as their interactions, within a turbulent environment under steady‐state conditions. Increasing the size of a convection–cloud chamber, while holding the imposed temperature difference constant, leads to increased Rayleigh, Reynolds and Nusselt numbers. Large–eddy simulation coupled with a bin microphysics model allows the influence of increased velocity, time, and spatial scales on cloud microphysical properties to be explored. Simulations of a convection–cloud chamber, with fixed aspect ratio and increasing heights of H = 1, 2, 4, and (for dry conditions only) 8 m are performed. The key findings are: Velocity fluctuations scale as H 1/3 , consistent with the Deardorff expression for convective velocity, and implying that the turbulence correlation time scales as H 2/3 . Temperature and other scalar fluctuations scale as H −3/7 . Droplet size distributions from chambers of different sizes can be matched by adjusting the total aerosol injection rate as the horizontal cross‐sectional area (i.e., as H 2 for constant aspect ratio). Injection of aerosols at a point versus distributed throughout the volume makes no difference for polluted conditions, but can lead to cloud droplet size distribution broadening in clean conditions. Cloud droplet growth by collision and coalescence leads to a broader right tail of the distribution compared to condensation growth alone, and this tail increases in magnitude and extent monotonically as the increase of chamber height. These results also have implications for scaling within turbulent, cloudy mixed‐layers in the atmosphere, such as fog layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Buffering of Aerosol-Cloud Adjustments by Coupling Between Radiative Susceptibility and Precipitation Efficiency

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Property Retrieval Products for Graciosa Island, Azores

The motivation for developing this product was to use the Dong et al. 1998 method to retrieve cloud microphysical properties, such as cloud droplet effective radius, cloud droplets number concentration, and optical thickness. These retrieved properties have been used to validate the satellite retrieval, and evaluate the climate simulations and reanalyses. We had been using this method to retrieve cloud microphysical properties over ARM SGP and NSA sites. We also modified the method for the AMF at Shouxian, China and some IOPs, e.g. ARM IOP at SGP in March, 2000. The ARSCL data from ARM data archive over the SGP and NSA have been used to determine the cloud boundary and cloud phase. For these ARM permanent sites, the ARSCL data was developed based on MMCR measurements, however, there were no data available at the Azores field campaign. We followed the steps to generate this derived product and also include the MPLCMASK cloud retrievals to determine the most accurate cloud boundaries, including the thin cirrus clouds that WACR may under-detect. We use these as input to retrieve the cloud microphysical properties. Due to the different temporal resolutions of the derived cloud boundary heights product and the cloud properties product, we submit them as two separate netcdf files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reexamination of the State of the Art Cloud Modeling Shows Real Improvements

Following up on an almost thirty year long history of International Cloud Modeling Workshops, that started out with a meeting in Irsee, Germany in 1985, the 8th International Cloud Modeling Workshop was held in July 2012 in Warsaw, Poland. The workshop, hosted by the Institute of Geophysics at the University of Warsaw, was organized by Szymon Malinowski and his local team of students and co-chaired by Wojciech Grabowski (NCAR/MMM) and Andreas Muhlbauer (University of Washington). International Cloud Modeling Workshops have been held traditionally every four years typically during the week before the International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation (ICCP) . Rooted in the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) weather modification program, the core objectives of the Cloud Modeling Workshop have been centered at the numerical modeling of clouds, cloud microphysics, and the interactions between cloud microphysics and cloud dynamics. In particular, the goal of the workshop is to provide insight into the pertinent problems of today’s state-of-the-art of cloud modeling and to identify key deficiencies in the microphysical representation of clouds in numerical models and cloud parameterizations. In recent years, the workshop has increasingly shifted the focus toward modeling the interactions between aerosols and clouds and provided case studies to investigate both the effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation as well as the impact of cloud and precipitation processes on aerosols. This time, about 60 (?) scientists from about 10 (?) different countries participated in the workshop and contributed with discussions, oral and poster presentations to the workshop’s plenary and breakout sessions. Several case leaders contributed to the workshop by setting up five observationally-based case studies covering a wide range of cloud types, namely, marine stratocumulus, mid-latitude squall lines, mid-latitude cirrus clouds, Arctic stratus and winter-time orographic clouds and precipitation. Interested readers are encouraged to visit the workshop website at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~andreasm/workshop2012/ and browse through the list of case studies. The web page also provides a detailed list of participants and the workshop agenda. Aside from contributed oral and poster presentations during the workshop’s plenary sessions, parallel breakout sessions focused on presentations and discussions of the individual cases. A short summary and science highlights from each of the cases is presented below.

Cloud↗

Toward understanding of differences in current cloud retrievals of ARM ground-based measurements

Accurate observations of cloud microphysical properties are needed for evaluating and improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models and better estimate of the Earth radiative budget. However, large differences are found in current cloud products retrieved from ground-based remote sensing measurements using various retrieval algorithms. Understanding the differences is an important step to address uncertainties in the cloud retrievals. In this study, an in-depth analysis of nine existing ground-based cloud retrievals using ARM remote sensing measurements is carried out. We place emphasis on boundary layer overcast clouds and high level ice clouds, which are the focus of many current retrieval development efforts due to their radiative importance and relatively simple structure. Large systematic discrepancies in cloud microphysical properties are found in these two types of clouds among the nine cloud retrieval products, particularly for the cloud liquid and ice particle effective radius. Note that the differences among some retrieval products are even larger than the prescribed uncertainties reported by the retrieval algorithm developers. It is shown that most of these large differences have their roots in the retrieval theoretical bases, assumptions, as well as input and constraint parameters. This study suggests the need to further validate current retrieval theories and assumptions and even the development of new retrieval algorithms with more observations under different cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗