Global modes of climate variability
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Computational methods for occurrences of combined environmental and pollution variables are compared. General statistical data and diurnal statistics on 24 environmental variables are treated. Combinations of variables dealt with include: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, total insolation; air temperature and weather event (rain, fog); air pollutant and weather event; wind speed, wind direction, and weather event; air temperature, total insolation, and weather event; air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, computed direct insolation levels; air temperature, relative humidity, air pollution.
Attention is given to the low-frequency variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluctuations, their possible correlations over different parts of the globe, and their relationships with teleconnections obtained from other meteorological parameters, for example, geopotential and temperature fields. Simultaneous relationships with respect to the Southern Oscillation (Namais, 1978; Barnett, 1981) signal and the reference OLR fluctuation over the equatorial central Pacific are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of the Southern Oscillation (SO) signal over preferred regions. Using lag cross-correlation statistics, possible lagged relationships between the tropics and midlatitudes and their relationships with the SO are then investigated. Only features that are consistent with present knowledge of the dynamics of the system are emphasized. Certain features which may not meet rigorous statistical significance tests but yet are either expected a priori from independent observations or are predicted from dynamical theories are also explored.
To investigate the low-frequency variability of the large-scale circulation over the tropics and its relationship with different regions of the globe, statistics of cloud fluctuations, as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used. The data consists of seven years of global OLR in a 2.5 x 2.5-deg grid derived from NOAA polar orbiting satellite observations. The time series of area-averaged monthly deviation from the seven-year mean of OLR over an equatorial Central Pacific region is presented. It is shown that positive and negative deviations reflect local drier and wetter than normal conditions, respectively. Consideration is given to teleconnection based on the Central Pacific variations and to southern oscillation contributions.
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Langley, in the late nineteenth century, attempted to measure solar irradiance over an extended period of time in order to detect changes. The problem with this and other early attempts was that ground based measurements are not sufficiently accurate to measure solar irradiance fluctuations, which are on the order of 0.1%. It was not until the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) was launched in 1980 that continuous data with precision 0.1% was available.
Data from several Nimbus-7 instruments and monthly averaged, multilayer delta-Eddington radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate the full vertical profile of the SW heating in the surface and the atmosphere. The noontime physical profile of clouds, water vapor, and surface albedo is used to compute a daily, monthly averaged top-of-atmosphere albedo (TOA), which was produced with noontime Nimbus-7 data, and a profile of SW heating for the atmosphere and surface. The daily, monthly averaged TOA albedo for July 1983 is compared with the ERBE daily, monthly averaged TOA albedo for July 1985. The sensitivity of the vertical SW heating profiles to the retrieval input assumptions is shown.
The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).
The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis has been done for a 6 to 17 year time period in order to analyze the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal was to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meteorological data sets. For the understanding of the surface processes a field program was designed to collect information on spectral albedo, specular reflectance, soot content, grain size and the physical properties of different snow types. Further, the radiative and turbulent fluxes at the ice/snow surface were monitored for the parameterization and interpretation of the satellite data. Highlights include AVHRR time series and surface based radiation measurements, passive microwave time series, and geodetic results from the ETH/CU camp.
Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.
During the period we calculated the atmospheric data sets related to its mass and angular momentum distribution. For mass, we determined the various harmonics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, especially the low-order harmonics that are useful in studying the gravitation distribution as will be determined from the GRACE mission. Atmospheric mass is also related to the atmospheric loading on the solid Earth; we cooperated with scientists who needed the atmospheric mass information for understanding its contributions to the overall loading, necessary for vertical and horizontal coordinate estimation. We calculated atmospheric angular momentum from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and 4 operational meteorological centers, based on the motion (wind) terms and the mass (surface pressure) terms. These are associated with motions of the planet, including its axial component causing changes in the length of day, more related to the winds, and the equatorial component related to motions of the pole, more related to the mass. Tasks related to the ocean mass and angular momentum were added to the project as well. For these we have noted the ocean impact on motions of the pole as well as the torque mechanisms that relate the transfer of angular momentum between oceans and solid earth. The activities of the project may be summarized in the following first manuscript written in December 2002, for a symposium that Dr. Salstein attended on Geodynamics. We have continued to assess ocean angular momentum (OAM) quantities derived from bottom pressure and velocity fields estimated with our finite-difference barotropic (single layer) model. Three years of output (1993-95) from a run without any data constraints was compared to output from a corresponding run that was constrained by altimeter data using a Kalman filter and smoother scheme. Respective OAM time series were combined with corresponding atmospheric series and compared to observed polar motion. The constrained OAM series provided slightly better variance reduction than the unconstrained series. Analysis provided a check on the estimation scheme and pointed to further work to improve the determination of OAM using this method. A significant effort was also devoted to quantifying effects of uncertainties in high frequency winds on the mean and seasonal momentum exchange between atmosphere and oceans.
This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.
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The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were approximately 0.96 degrees Centigrade above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about 0.42 degrees Centigrade from a long-term upward trend and the rest (around 80 percent) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from ENSO was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005-2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005-2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC were key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.