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Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 22 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during fiscal year (FY) 2022 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 14057 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries, but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 75,572.42 metric tons (MT) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions during FY 2022. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2022 GHG inventory: • Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO2e emissions. • Other sources with high emissions were mobile combustion (fleet fuels), employee commuting, stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill). • Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 2021 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 13834 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 81,185.05 metric tons (MT) of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions during FY 2021. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2021 GHG inventory: Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO 2 e emissions; Other sources with high emissions were mobile combustion (fleet fuels), employee commuting, stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill); Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 2020 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during fiscal year (FY) 2020 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 13834 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG Guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries, but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 76,494.12 metric tons (MT) of CO2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions during FY 2020. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2020 GHG inventory: (1) Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO 2 e emissions; (2) Other sources with high emissions were employee commuting, mobile combustion (fleet fuels), stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill); and (3) Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CROCUS Air Quality Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). The AQT (Vaisala AQT530) instrument provides observations on meteorological conditions, including particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gas species concentrations (NO, NO2, O3, CO), and environment temperature and moisture. These measurements are critical for understanding air quality. These measurements are useful for understanding changes in aerosol properties, air quality research, and comparing to model experiments especially in urban environments.Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Weather Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements.Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Air Quality Data at Chicago State University Prairie Site

The Air Quality Transmitter (AQT) (Vaisala AQT530) instrument provides observations on meteorological conditions, including particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gas species concentrations (Nitric Oxide (NO), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3)), and environment temperature and moisture. These measurements are critical for understanding air quality. These measurements are useful for understanding changes in aerosol properties, air quality research, and comparing to model experiments especially in urban environments.This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Weather Data at Northwestern University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗

Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

phenology↗

Ultrascale Visualization of Climate Data

Fueled by exponential increases in the computational and storage capabilities of high-performance computing platforms, climate simulations are evolving toward higher numerical fidelity, complexity, volume, and dimensionality. These technological breakthroughs are coming at a time of exponential growth in climate data, with estimates of hundreds of exabytes by 2020. To meet the challenges and exploit the opportunities that such explosive growth affords, a consortium of four national laboratories, two universities, a government agency, and two private companies formed to explore the next wave in climate science. Working in close collaboration with domain experts, the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) project aims to provide high-level solutions to a variety of climate data analysis and visualization problems.

analysis tools↗

DoE as a “Digital Innovation” Sponsor of the WCRP OSC2023 (Final Report)

The WCRP Open Science Conference (https://wcrp-osc2023.org/) was a once-in-a-decade opportunity to jointly explore the transformative actions urgently needed to ensure a sustainable future. Held in Kigali, Rwanda on October 23 -27, 2023, it showcased advances in climate science, helped identify gaps and opportunities, and provided a forum for communities to jointly develop future activities. Scientists, practitioners, politicians, policy makers, intergovernmental agencies and NGOs showcased their work, learned from each other, and explored new ways to work together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

LDRD 2022 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This report provides a detailed look at the scientific and technical activities for each of the LDRD projects funded by BNL in FY 2022, in fulfillment of that requirement. In FY 2022, the BNL LDRD Program funded 70 projects, 30 of which were new starts, at a total cost of $17.2M. The investments that BNL makes in its LDRD program support the Laboratory’s strategic goals. BNL has identified seven scientific initiatives that define the Laboratory’s scientific future and that will enable it to realize its overall vision. This requires simultaneous excellence in all aspects of BNL’s work – from science and operations, to external partnerships with the local, state, and national communities, and beyond. This is enabled by safe, efficient, and secure operations; by an unwavering commitment to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive environment, including workforce development, both with staff and reaching out to the community; and by a strong focus on renewed infrastructure. The seven scientific initiatives are: 1) Nuclear Physics: uncover the structure of visible matter by constructing and operating the Electron-Ion Collider at BNL to maintain international leadership in nuclear physics for decades; 2) Clean Energy and Climate: support a net-zero U.S. economy through fundamental research in basic energy and climate sciences to revolutionize grid-scale storage, renewable integration, and the study of atmospheric processes with a new facility to improve climate predictability; 3) Quantum Information Science and Technology: discover new quantum materials to enhance quantum computers and develop an entanglement sharing quantum network as a prototype for the first quantum internet; 4) Discovery Science Driven by the Human-AI Facility Integration: revolutionize the operation of experiments across the sciences at user facilities and in core programs; 5) High Energy Physics: understand the origin of space and time with the ATLAS high luminosity upgrade at CERN and the future Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment; 6) Isotope Production: accelerate and expand isotope production to ensure the security of the Nation’s supply; 7) Accelerator Science and Technology: harness the cross-cutting accelerator science expertise at BNL to develop new facilities, improve and expand its user facilities, and promote the use of accelerators in industry. The funded projects support BNL’s seven scientific initiatives and priority programs as well as new areas of research and competencies at the Laboratory that are consistent with the Laboratory’s vision and mission. In total, these LDRD investments supported 43 postdoctoral researchers in whole or in part and resulted in 138 publications and 7 awards. This Program Activities Report represents the future of BNL science; it is an impressive body of exploratory work that investigates many scientific and technical directions in support of the DOE and BNL missions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of the Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback in UARS MLS and HALOE Data

One of the biggest uncertainties in climate science today concerns the water vapor feedback. Most GCMs hold relative humidity fixed as the climate changes, which provides a strong positive feedback to warming due from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Some in the community, on the other hand, have speculated that tropospheric specific humidity will remain fixed as the climate changes. Observational studies have attempted to resolve this disagreement, but the results have been inconclusive, and few of the studies have focused on the upper troposphere (UT). This is a significant oversight: the surface temperature is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor in the UT owing to the cold temperatures found there. We present an analysis of UARS MLS and HALOE water vapor measurements at 21 5 hPa. We find strong evidence that the water vapor feedback in the UT is positive, but not as strong as fixed relative humidity scenarios. This suggests that GCMs are overestimating the sensitivity of the climate.

Dessler, A. E.↗

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗