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At least 91 records · Page 5

Laboratory and theoretical models of planetary-scale instabilities and waves

Meteorologists and planetary astronomers interested in large-scale planetary and solar circulations recognize the importance of rotation and stratification in determining the character of these flows. The two outstanding problems of interest are: (1) the origins and nature of chaos in baroclinically unstable flows; and (2) the physical mechanisms responsible for high speed zonal winds and banding on the giant planets. The methods used to study these problems, and the insights gained, are useful in more general atmospheric and climate dynamic settings. Because the planetary curvature or beta-effect is crucial in the large scale nonlinear dynamics, the motions of rotating convecting liquids in spherical shells were studied using electrohydrodynamic polarization forces to generate radial gravity and centrally directed buoyancy forces in the laboratory. The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) experiments performed on Spacelab 3 in 1985 were analyzed. The interpretation and extension of these results have led to the construction of efficient numerical models of rotating convection with an aim to understand the possible generation of zonal banding on Jupiter and the fate of banana cells in rapidly rotating convection as the heating is made strongly supercritical. Efforts to pose baroclinic wave experiments for future space missions using a modified version of the 1985 instrument have led us to develop theoretical and numerical models of baroclinic instability. Some surprising properties of both these models were discovered.

Hart, John E.↗

The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Phase 2 Preliminary System Design

The laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) is intended to measure global wind profiles in the lower and upper troposphere as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). Global scale wind profiles will lead to a better understanding of large scale circulation processes and climate dynamics, an understanding of mesoscale phenomena, improved numerical weather prediction, and further insights into the coupling of the atmosphere/oceans/biosphere system. Here, details are given of the Phase 2 preliminary design.

Petheram, John C.↗

Special relativity effects for space-based coherent lidar experiments

There is a great need to develop a system that can measure accurately atmospheric wind profiles because an accurate data of wind profiles in the atmosphere constitutes single most input for reliable simulations of global climate numerical methods. Also such data helps us understand atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics better. Because of this need for accurate wind measurements, a space-based Laser Atmospheric Winds Sounder (LAWS) is being designed at MSFC to measure wind profiles in the lower atmosphere of the earth with an accuracy of 1 m/s at lower altitudes to 5m/s at higher altitudes. This system uses an orbiting spacecraft with a pulsed laser source and measures the Doppler shift between the transmitted and received frequencies to estimate the atmospheric wind velocities. If a significant return from the ground (sea) is possible, the spacecraft speed and height are estimated from it and these results and the Doppler shift are then used to estimate the wind velocities in the atmosphere. It is expected that at the proposed wavelengths, there will be enough backscatter from the aerosols but there may no be significant return from the ground. So a coherent (heterodyne) detection system is being proposed for signal processing because it can provide high signal to noise ratio and sensitivity and thus make the best use of low ground return. However, for a heterodyne detection scheme to provide the best results, it is important that the receiving aperture be aligned properly for the proposed wind sounder, this amounts to only a few microradians tolerance in alignment. It is suspected that the satellite motion relative to the ground may introduce errors in the order of a few microradians because of special relativity. Hence, the problem of laser scattering off a moving fixed target when the source and receiver are moving, which was not treated in the past in the literature, was analyzed in the following, using relativistic electrodynamics and applied to the case of the space-based coherent lidar, assuming flat ground. Here an interest in developing analytical expression for the location of the receiving point for the return with respect to the satellite, receiving angle and Doppler shift in frequency and amount of tip, all as measured in the satellite moving coordinate system and the diffuse scattering angle at the ground which does not require any compensation. All the three cases of retro-reflection, specular reflection and diffuse scattering by the ground should be treated though retro-reflection and diffuse scattering are more important.

Raogudimetla, V. S.↗

Silicon Carbide Pressure Sensors for Venus Environment

We report on the evaluation of 4H-SiC piezoresistive pressure sensors in the simulated Venus environment of the NASA Glenn Extreme Environments Rig (GEER). The purpose of the evaluation was to determine the survivability of the pressure and temperature sensors and ancillary packaging components when subjected to the high pressure and aggressive chemical media that are characteristic of the Venus environment. Interest in Venus has been stimulated by the ongoing debate about Earth's planetary evolution, particularly in regards to its climate, and NASA has proposed a flagship mission to Venus to be launched in the near future. Quantifying how the Venus evo-lution ran its course will greatly aid researchers trying to model Earth's climate dynamics.

high temperature↗

MISR-GOES 3D Winds: Implications for Future LEO-GEO and LEO-LEO Winds

Global wind observations are fundamental for studying weather and climate dynamics and for operational forecasting. Most wind measurements come from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking the displacement of cloud or water vapor features. These AMVs generally rely on thermal infrared (IR) techniques for their height assignments, which are subject to large uncertainties in the presence of weak or reversed vertical temperature gradients near the planetary boundary layer (PBL)and tropopause folds. Stereo imaging can overcome the height assignment problem using geometric parallax for feature height determination. In this study we develop a stereo 3D-Wind algorithm to simultaneously retrieve AMV and height from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagery and apply it to collocated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) imagery. The new algorithm improves AMV and height relative to products from GOES or MISR alone, with an estimated accuracy of <0.5 m/s in AMV and <200 m in height with 2.2 km sampling. The algorithm can be generalized to other LEO-GEO or LEO-LEO combinations for greater spatiotemporal coverage. The technique demonstrated with MISR and GOES has important implications for future high-quality AMV observations, for which a low-cost constellation of CubeSats can play a vital role.

MISR↗

Tree Rings and Observations Suggest No Stable Cycles In Sierra Nevada Cool‐Season Precipitation

California's water resources rely heavily on cool‐season (November–March) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability is highly volatile and seasonal forecasting has little to no skill, making water management particularly challenging. Over 1902–2020, Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation totals exhibited significant 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles, accounting for approximately 40% of total variability and perhaps signifying potential as seasonal forecasting tools. However, the underlying climate dynamics are not well understood and it is unclear whether these cycles are stable over the long‐term. We use tree rings to reconstruct Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation back to 1400. The reconstruction is skillful, accounting for 55–74% of observed variability and capturing the 20th‐century 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles. Prior to 1900, the reconstruction indicates no other century‐long periods of significant spectral power in the 2.2‐ or 13–15‐year bands. The reconstruction does indicate significant cyclicity over other extended periods of several decades or longer, however, with dominant periodicities in the ranges of 2.1–2.7 and 3.5–8 years. The late 1700s through 1800s exhibited the highest‐amplitude cycles in the reconstruction, with periodicities of 2.4 and 5.7–7.4 years. The reconstruction should serve to caution against extrapolating the observed 2.2‐ and 13–15‐year cycles to guide future expectations. On the other hand, observations and the reconstruction suggest that interannual variability of Sierra Nevada cool‐season precipitation is not a purely white noise process and research should aim to diagnose the dynamical drivers of extended periods of cyclicity in this critical natural resource.

Paleoclimate↗

Preliminary XANES Analysis of Laboratory Analogs of Titan Tholins

Titan, the largest moon of Saturn, is a fascinating object. It is the only other object in the Solar System, besides Earth, with a dense (1.5 bar at the surface) atmosphere whose composition is dominated by N2, with CH4 as the second most abundant gas. A complex organic chemistry between N2 and CH4, induced by solar UV photons and energetic particles, results in the formation of a large variety of organic compounds, including hydrocarbons (e.g., C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, C3H4, C6H6), nitriles (e.g., HCN, HNC, HC3N, CH3CN, C2N2), as well as larger molecules that include aromatic and heteroaromatic compounds [1]. This complex organic chemistry also leads to the formation of aerosols that play an important role in Titan’s atmospheric dynamics, climate, as well as surface composition and processes. Because of its N2-based dense atmosphere, and its CH4 cycle that resembles the hydrological cycle on Earth, Titan is often considered to be an analog of early Earth. In recent years, Titan’s atmosphere and surface were monitored in detail by the NASA Cassini mission, which orbited the Saturnian system from 2004 to 2017, as well as the ESA Huygens probe, which plunged into Titan’s atmosphere and landed on its surface in 2005.

Titan↗

Summer temperatures during the last glaciation (MIS 5c to MIS 3) inferred from a 50,000-year chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany

There is a sparsity of long, continuous palaeotemperature records for the last glacial period in central Europe, particularly for the interval corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4 and 3. Here we present a new, ca. 50-thousand year (ka)-long chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany, covering the interval from MIS 5a to MIS 3 that we use to examine lake development and then to quantitatively reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Chironomid assemblages with high abundances of taxa such as Polypedilum nubeculosum-type, Microtendipes pedellus-type, Cladopelma lateralis-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type imply a shallow-lake setting for the majority of the examined interval, which is corroborated by other aquatic remains such as oribatid mites, Sialidae and Ceratopogonidae. Assemblages from the interval ca. 99 to 80 ka (in the region corresponding to the Brörup Interstadial, Stadial B and early Odderade Interstadial) are dominated by taxa such as Tanytarsus glabrescens-type and Tanytarsus mendax-type and indicate relatively warm temperatures. Assemblages from the interval covering ca. 80 to 54 ka (corresponding to the late Odderade, Stadial C, Dürnten Interstadial and Stadial D) are dominated by taxa such as Sergentia coracina-type and Tanytarsus lugens-type and are typical for cooler conditions. Reconstructed July temperatures for the early Würmian (Brörup to early Odderade; ca. 99–80 ka) are 13–14 °C. Values decline to <10 °C during the late Odderade and Stadial C (ca. 80–77 ka) around the MIS 5a/4 transition. This decrease is coeval with a pronounced decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Values stay in the range of 9–11 °C during the Dürnten and Stadial D (ca. 54–74.5 ka) and increase again to 12.5 °C during the Bellamont 1 interstadial (ca. 54–46 ka). Reconstructed July temperatures track changes in arboreal pollen percentages at Füramoos and agree with a summer-temperature decrease during the early to mid-Würmian as reported by other palaeotemperature records from Europe and the North Atlantic. Our chironomid record from Füramoos provides valuable new insights into Würmian climate dynamics in Central Europe, and corroborates other temperature reconstructions from the early to mid-Würmian glacial period.

Chironomids↗

Delaware Basin Ecological Forecasting: Identifying Vegetation Trends and Atmospheric Stressors in the Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns National Parks

The Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns National Parks, located in the Delaware Basin in the southwestern United States, observed both a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature over the last decade. Furthermore, activity from local oil fields generated nitrogen dioxide (NO2) plumes that spread over the parks and augmented the effects of the drought. NO2 is a precursor for tropospheric ozone (O3) which is known to have adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems at large. These new climate dynamics prompted the National Park Service (NPS) to collaborate with NASA DEVELOP to assess the impact on vegetation within the parks. We used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to assess vegetation health, water stress, and precipitation in the affected parks. After creating a homogenous reference area in the Sierra Diablo Mountains (SDM), the team visualized vegetation health through a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series map from 2010-2021. This did not show strong evidence that the NO2 plume is causing vegetation decline. Following this, we created a water stress map with a Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) time series map from 2010-2021, which revealed a pattern of increasing water stress. We also confirmed that precipitation in the region decreased over the span of 2010-2021. These observations and findings will allow the NPS Intermountain Region to more effectively plan for the preservation and maintenance of vegetation health within the parks.

Jack Mezger↗

Delaware Basin Ecological Forecasting: Identifying Vegetation Trends and Atmospheric Stressors in the Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns National Parks

The Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns National Parks, located in the Delaware Basin in the southwestern United States, observed both a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature over the last decade. Furthermore, activity from local oil fields generated nitrogen dioxide (NO2) plumes that spread over the parks and augmented the effects of the drought. NO2 is a precursor for tropospheric ozone (O3) which is known to have adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems at large. These new climate dynamics prompted the National Park Service (NPS) to collaborate with NASA DEVELOP to assess the impact on vegetation within the parks. We used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to assess vegetation health, water stress, and precipitation in the affected parks. After creating a homogeneous reference area in the Sierra Diablo Mountains, the team visualized vegetation health through a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series map from 2010-2021. This did not show strong evidence that the NO2 plume is causing vegetation decline. Following this, we created a water stress map with a Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) time series map from 2010-2021, which revealed a pattern of increasing water stress. We also confirmed that precipitation in the region decreased over the span of 2010-2021. These observations and findings will allow the NPS Intermountain Region to more effectively plan for the preservation and maintenance of vegetation health within the parks.

Jack Mezger↗

Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗

Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context: Activities of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

extreme events↗

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Understanding Differences in California Climate Projections Produced by Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

Abstract We compare historical and end‐of‐century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from one dynamically downscaled simulation using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and two simulations statistically downscaled using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). We uniquely separate causes of differences between dynamically and statistically based future climate projections into differences in historical climate (gridded observations versus regional climate model output) and differences in how these downscaling techniques explicitly handle future climate changes (numerical modeling versus analogs). In these methods, solutions between different downscaling techniques differ more in the future compared to the historical period. Changes projected by LOCA are insensitive to the choice of driving data. Only through dynamical downscaling can we simulate physically consistent regional springtime warming patterns across the Sierra Nevada, while the statistical simulations inherit an unphysical signal from their parent Global Climate Model (GCM) or gridded data. The results of our study clarify why these different techniques produce different outcomes and may also provide guidance on which downscaled products to use for certain impact analyses in California and perhaps other Mediterranean regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗