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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗
NASA NTRS2024

Global Nitrogen Needs to Improve Wheat Yield Under Climate Change

Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with improved yield traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved yield traits increased yield by 16% with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Nitrogen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Century-long timelines of herbarium genomes predict plant stomatal response to climate change

Abstract Dissecting plant responses to the environment is key to understanding whether and how plants adapt to anthropogenic climate change. Stomata, plants’ pores for gas exchange, are expected to decrease in density following increased CO 2 concentrations, a trend already observed in multiple plant species. However, it is unclear whether such responses are based on genetic changes and evolutionary adaptation. Here we make use of extensive knowledge of 43 genes in the stomatal development pathway and newly generated genome information of 191 Arabidopsis thaliana historical herbarium specimens collected over 193 years to directly link genetic variation with climate change. While we find that the essential transcription factors SPCH, MUTE and FAMA, central to stomatal development, are under strong evolutionary constraints, several regulators of stomatal development show signs of local adaptation in contemporary samples from different geographic regions. We then develop a functional score based on known effects of gene knock-out on stomatal development that recovers a classic pattern of stomatal density decrease over the past centuries, suggesting a genetic component contributing to this change. This approach combining historical genomics with functional experimental knowledge could allow further investigations of how different, even in historical samples unmeasurable, cellular plant phenotypes may have already responded to climate change through adaptive evolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Challenges and Nonproliferation: Addressing the Issue through Technical Cooperation

Climate change is an urgent global challenge that is already severely impacting many regions of the world. The 2015 Paris Agreement was a landmark achievement, while the 2023 UN COP 28 Climate Conference in Dubai recognized nuclear energy and its applications as a proven and sustainable means to help societies adapt to climate change and take measures to mitigate and, possibly, reverse its effects. Twenty-two countries, supported by over 120 companies, pledged to triple the share of global nuclear energy generation by 2050. The global interest in nuclear applications for peaceful uses has never been higher. The deployment of advanced reactors around the globe – focused primarily on lowering the carbon footprint and allowing for socio-economic development – must be addressed responsibly through setting priorities for its implementation. Tackling the challenges that new technologies, such as advanced reactors, bring to the nonproliferation regime is at the top of the list. The regime stands on the three pillars of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT): nonproliferation, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and disarmament. Recognizing the inherent risks of expanding applications of nuclear materials and technologies for peaceful uses, all such efforts must concurrently strengthen the nonproliferation norm enshrined in the NPT. The challenges of adapting to and mitigating climate change with the use of advanced reactors is already impacting the discussions and expectations about the future of the NPT. The dialog with non-traditional domestic, and international partners on a strategic technical cooperation approach is key to proposing and implementing scientific and technical solutions for urgent climate issues, while framing the discussion within nonproliferation requirements and commitments, and demonstrating the underlying value of the NPT in support of peaceful nuclear applications. This paper addresses adaptation to climate challenges and mitigation of them through advanced reactors and establishes nonproliferation linkages that derive from the deployment of this technology. This paper presents an assessment of the benefits of mechanisms for technical cooperation and peaceful uses of nuclear technology in the framework of Article IV of the NPT.

Prah, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2025

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between macro‐ and micro‐climate: Effects on phenolic compound production in Nardus stricta at high elevations

Abstract Phenolic compounds are key to plant defence, offering protection as antioxidants, UV shields, and antimicrobials. Their production is largely shaped by environmental conditions. It is believed that plants at lower elevations increase phenolic content to counter herbivory, while those at higher elevations rely on phenolics to manage abiotic stresses, such as climate variability. Microhabitat warming also affects phenolic levels, but responses differ, depending on broader climatic contexts: plants in warmer, lower‐elevation environments show limited adaptability, whereas high‐elevation plants demonstrate greater plasticity. Despite the importance of these environmental interactions, many small‐scale abiotic studies lack sufficient spatial replication across broader gradients like elevation or latitude, while large‐scale studies frequently overlook microscale factors. This study investigated the effects of macroclimate factors and microhabitat warming on phenolic production in Nardus stricta across five semi‐natural grassland sites (1546–1875 m a.s.l.) in Portugal's Serra da Estrela. Warming was simulated using open‐top chambers over two growing seasons, after which leaf samples were analysed for phenolic compounds, and soil nutrients were measured. The N. stricta plants at the highest elevation site contained significantly higher leaf flavonoid concentrations. Microhabitat warming led to a significant decrease in flavonoid concentrations, but only at the highest elevation site. These effects occurred independently of soil nutrient levels, suggesting direct thermal effects or stress responses might be involved. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between macro‐ and microenvironmental factors in shaping plant chemistry, underscoring critical considerations for plant resilience in the face of climate change. This understanding is essential for developing strategies to support plant and ecosystem adaptation to changing climates.

Moreira, X. [Misión Biológica de Galicia (MBG‐CSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging SETS resilience capabilities for safe-to-fail infrastructure under climate change

As the rehabilitation of infrastructure is outpaced by changes in the profile, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events, infrastructure’s service disruptions and failures become increasingly likely. Safe-to-fail approaches for infrastructure planning and design improve the capacity of cities to adapt for uncertain climate futures by identifying social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) capabilities to prepare for potential failure scenarios. In this work, we argue for transforming infrastructure planning and design to effectively utilize safe-to-fail approaches by navigating the opportunities and trade-offs of SETS resilience capabilities. From a technological vantage point, traditional infrastructure planning approaches account for social and ecological domains as external design conditions rather than embedded system characteristics. Safe-to-fail approaches directly challenge the isolation of the technological domain by necessitating a recognition that SETS domains are interconnected and interdependent in infrastructure systems, as such risks and system capabilities for resilience must be managed cohesively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
NASA NTRS2020

Seasonality of Biological and Physical Systems as Indicators of Climate Variation and Change

Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical climate systems (seasonality) and in plant and animal life cycles (phenology). We describe a set of national indicators that reflect sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers and responses of terrestrial physical and biological systems to climate change and variability at the national scale. Proposed indicators and metrics include seasonality of surface climate conditions (e.g., frost and freeze dates and durations), seasonality of freeze/thaw in freshwater systems (e.g., timing of stream runoff and durations of lake/river ice), seasonality in ecosystem disturbances (e.g., wildfire season timing and duration), seasonality in vegetated land surfaces (e.g., green-up and brown-down of landscapes), and seasonality of organismal life-history stages (e.g., timings of bird migration). Recommended indicators have strong linkages to variable and changing climates, include abiotic and biotic responses and feedback mechanisms, and are sufficiently simple to facilitate communication to broad audiences and stakeholders interested in understanding and adapting to climate change.

Seasonality↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Convection Parametrization and Multi-Nesting Dependence of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Namibia with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Namibia is considered as one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. Early warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and these need to be configured properly. In this study we investigate the effects of using multi-nests and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the Northwestern region of Kunene, Namibia. The event which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid length parent domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi nest is found to be small in general, with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid spacing of 9 km mis used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing to be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.

flooding↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upper-air soundings collected during the CROCUS Urban Canyons 2024 campaign in Chicago, Illinois USA

Funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research program, Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) studies urban climate change and the impact it has on communities, with particular focus on disinvested, under-resourced communities. This information leads to new insights on urban climate challenges and informs future actions for mitigating and adapting to climate change at the street, neighborhood and regional levels.As part of the CROCUS effort, the Urban Canyons 2024 project was undertaken to study conditions at unprecedented detail over various neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. This dataset consists of upper air soundings that were collected as part of this effort. Soundings were launched during two intensive observing periods, IOP1 occurred on 22-23 July 2024, while IOP2 occurred on 27-28 July 2024. For IOP1, soundings were launched at coordinated times from three sites, Shedd Aquarium in Downtown Chicago, Abizu Campus High School in Humboldt Park, and Gary Comer Youth Center in West Woodlawn. For IOP2, the Gary Comer site was replaced by a neighborhood site in West Woodlawn, Chicago. The Abizu Campos site was operated by Valparaiso University and used iMET-4 rawinsondes, the other sites were operated by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and used GRAW DFM-19 sondes.This dataset contains netCDF files containing quality-controlled temperature, dewpoint, geopotential height, pressure, and vector wind measurements at 1 second intervals following launch. These files are readable by the open-source netCDF software libraries available in many software packages (i.e., python, R, fortran, C++, etc.). The dataset also contains quicklook plots of each launch on a skew-T log-p thermodynamic diagram. These are in png format viewable by most web browsers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Downscaled and Bias-Adjusted Climate Projections for Afghanistan

Climate change is already having devastating impacts on human communities and natural landscapes, from increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters to drought and desertification that degrade both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods. However, the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed across the world—some places are at far greater risk than others. These highly vulnerable places should be a higher priority for investments and interventions to help people and nature adapt to changing climatic conditions. Afghanistan is one of the most at-risk countries from climate change. Within the country, the river basins are particularly sensitive as climate change will dramatically alter their water regimes upon which ecosystems and a vast proportion of the Afghan population and millions of people in neighbouring countries rely. As part of an EU-funded project implemented by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), WCS conducted a vulnerability assessment for the Amu Darya River Basin that drains c. 14% of Afghanistan’s land area and is critically important for supporting both people and sensitive biodiversity (Elsen et al., 2023). Central to the vulnerability assessment was the development of downscaled and bias-adjusted climate projections, produced by the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)1. The climate projections were produced at a much higher resolution (1 km2) than were otherwise available and were tailored to the local environment.

climate projections↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗