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Microrover Research for Exploration of Mars

There is great interest in the science community to explore Mars by using microrovers that carry seveal science instruments and are capable of traversing long distances[1]. NASA has planned six additional missions to Mars for 2001, 2003, and 2005. There is an excellent chance that rovers will be utilized in some of these missions. Such rovers would traverse to sites separated by seveal kilometers and place instruments against outcrops or loose rocks, search an area for a sample of interest, and collect rocks and soil samples for return to Earth (2005 mission). Our research objectives are to develop technologies that enable such scenarios within the mission constraints of mass, power, volume, and cost.

microrovers missions to Mars↗

The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

Most space-bound hardware needs to be designed to withstand space weather events to some degree. Long-term predictability of space weather events, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections, are still a matter of theory so designers should assume a worst case event for their specific environment. In our analysis, we show preliminary results of the probability of encountering a false/true go/no-go based on a threshold launch and design proton environment. The goal in choosing a threshold launch environment is to avoid the chance of exceeding the design environment during vulnerable parts of the mission. Operationally, this method cannot predict damaging space weather but can aid in avoiding space weather events that are already occurring. The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) proton flux database is used as a proxy for the heavy ion fluxes, which impart a greater threat because of larger single event upsets and effects. Our use of protons as a proxy for heavy ions is justified on the basis of the correlation between their fluxes shown by a qualitative comparison of GOES proton integral fluxes at greater than 10 megaelectronvolts and ACE/SIS (Advanced Composition Explorer / Solar Isotope Spectrometer) heavy ion integral fluxes.

DeStefano, Anthony M.↗

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Optimal celestial bodies for dark matter detection

A wide variety of celestial bodies have been considered as dark matter detectors. Which stands the best chance of delivering the discovery of dark matter? Which is the most powerful dark matter detector? We investigate a range of objects, including the Sun, Earth, Jupiter, Brown Dwarfs, White Dwarfs, Neutron Stars, Stellar populations, and Exoplanets. We quantify how different objects are optimal dark matter detectors in different regimes by deconstructing some of the in-built assumptions in these search sensitivities, including observation potential and particle model assumptions. We find new constraints and future sensitivities across a range of dark matter annihilation final states. We quantify mediator properties leading to detectable celestial-body energy injection or Standard Model fluxes, and show how different objects can be expected to deliver corroborating signals. We discuss different search strategies, their opportunities and limitations, and the interplay of regimes where different celestial objects are optimal dark matter detectors. Deconstructing the assumptions of these searches leads us to point out a new search using the Galactic center stellar population that can provide greater sensitivity to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross section than the Sun, despite being significantly further away in our Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Universal Fourier Attack for Time Series

A wide variety of adversarial attacks have been proposed and explored using image and audio data. These attacks are notoriously easy to generate digitally when the attacker can directly manipulate the input to a model, but are much more difficult to implement in the real world. In this paper we present a universal, time invariant attack for general time series data such that the attack has a frequency spectrum primarily composed of the frequencies present in the original data. The universality of the attack makes it fast and easy to implement as no computation is required to add it to an input, while time invariance is useful for real world deployment. Additionally, the frequency constraint ensures the attack can withstand filtering defenses. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the attack on two different classification tasks through both digital and real world experiments, and show that the attack is robust against common transform-and-compare defense pipelines.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Flying Ejection Seat

To increase aircrewmen's chances for safe rescue in combat zones, the armed forces are investigating advanced escape and rescue concepts that will provide independent flight after ejection and thus reduce the risk of capture. One of the candidate concepts is discussed; namely, a stowable autogyro that serves as the crewman's seat during normal operations and automatically converts to a flight vehicle after ejection. Discussed are (1) the mechanism subsystems that the concept embodies to meet the weight and cockpit-packaging constraints and (2) tests that demonstrated the technical feasibility of the stowage, deployment, and flight operation of the rotor lift system.

Hollrock, R. H.↗

Small Autonomous Aircraft Servo Health Monitoring

Small air vehicles offer challenging power, weight, and volume constraints when considering implementation of system health monitoring technologies. In order to develop a testbed for monitoring the health and integrity of control surface servos and linkages, the Autonomous Aircraft Servo Health Monitoring system has been designed for small Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) platforms to detect problematic behavior from servos and the air craft structures they control, This system will serve to verify the structural integrity of an aircraft's servos and linkages and thereby, through early detection of a problematic situation, minimize the chances of an aircraft accident. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's rotary-winged UAV has an Airborne Power management unit that is responsible for regulating, distributing, and monitoring the power supplied to the UAV's avionics. The current sensing technology utilized by the Airborne Power Management system is also the basis for the Servo Health system. The Servo Health system measures the current draw of the servos while the servos are in Motion in order to quantify the servo health. During a preflight check, deviations from a known baseline behavior can be logged and their causes found upon closer inspection of the aircraft. The erratic behavior nay include binding as a result of dirt buildup or backlash caused by looseness in the mechanical linkages. Moreover, the Servo Health system will allow elusive problems to be identified and preventative measures taken to avoid unnecessary hazardous conditions in small autonomous aircraft.

Quintero, Steven↗

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improved Constraints for the XUV Luminosity Evolution of Trappist-1

We re-examine the XUV luminosity evolution of TRAPPIST-1 utilizing new observational constraints of the current stellar parameters (XUV and bolometric luminosity) from multi-epoch X-ray/UV photometry. Following the formalism presented on Fleming et al. (2020), we infer that TRAPPIST-1maintained a saturated XUV luminosity, relative to the bolometric luminosity, of log10(LXUV/Lbol)=−3.03+0.25−0.23at early times for a period of tsat= 3.14+2.22−1.46Gyr. After the saturation phase, we find LXUV decayed over time by an exponential rate ofβXUV=−1.17+0.27−0.28. Compared to our inferred age of the system, age = 7.96+1.78−1.87Gyr, our result for tsat suggests that there is only a∼4% chance thatTRAPPIST-1 still remains in the saturated phase today, which is significantly lower than the previous estimate of 40%. Despite this reduction in tsat, our results remain consistent in the conclusion that the TRAPPIST-1 planets likely received an extreme amount XUV energy—an estimated integrated XUV energy of∼1030−1032erg over the star’s lifetime—that is∼15% lower than the original result.

Stellar evolution↗

CODEX clusters

Context: Large area catalogs of galaxy clusters constructed from ROSAT All-Sky Survey provide the basis for our knowledge of the population of clusters thanks to long-term multiwavelength efforts to follow up observations of these clusters. Aims: The advent of large area photometric surveys superseding previous, in-depth all-sky data allows us to revisit the construction of X-ray cluster catalogs, extending the study to lower cluster masses and higher redshifts and providing modeling of the selection function. Methods: We performed a wavelet detection of X-ray sources and made extensive simulations of the detection of clusters in the RASS data. We assigned an optical richness to each of the 24 788 detected X-ray sources in the 10 382 square degrees of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey area using red sequence cluster finder redMaPPer version 5.2 run on Sloan Digital Sky Survey photometry. We named this survey COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray (CODEX) clusters. Results: We show that there is no obvious separation of sources on galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei (AGN) based on the distribution of systems on their richness. This is a combination of an increasing number of galaxy groups and their selection via the identification of X-ray sources either by chance or by groups hosting an AGN. To clean the sample, we use a cut on the optical richness at the level corresponding to the 10% completeness of the survey and include it in the modeling of the cluster selection function. We present the X-ray catalog extending to a redshift of 0.6. Conclusions: The CODEX suvey is the first large area X-ray selected catalog of northern clusters reaching fluxes of 10 –13 ergs s –1 cm –2 . We provide modeling of the sample selection and discuss the redshift evolution of the high end of the X-ray luminosity function (XLF). Our results on z < 0.3 XLF agree with previous studies, while we provide new constraints on the 0.3 < z < 0.6 XLF. We find a lack of strong redshift evolution of the XLF, provide exact modeling of the effect of low number statistics and AGN contamination, and present the resulting constraints on the flat ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing Mission Segment-Specific Clinical Data for Impact

Space exploration missions represent a significant future objective for NASA’s human spaceflight operations for the near and long term. By operating missions during longer periods and over further distances, NASA’s mission planning models, hardware systems, and medical capabilities will be stretched beyond their original design constraints. The necessity of medical training and medical supply manifesting for such missions is likely to become incredibly intricate as trade-space analysis is performed over varying mission profiles. For this purpose, IMPACT was created to extend and improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) which is used for International Space Station (ISS) medical predications and consists of a probabilistic risk assessment tool that simulates missions to calculate risks given the constraints on crew complement, mission duration and activity (such as Extravehicular Activities), power, communication, mass, volume, and evacuation consideration as well as to predict mission outcomes. Currently, the medical evidence used to support IMPACT remains static, addressing risks of a medical condition and the impacts of the condition during spaceflight only, but is only calculated for a small number of mission parameters. Extended missions will consist of new and varied living environments, changing gravitational loads, and dynamic working requirements. Medical risks are not typically constant but will change depending upon the physical and physiological environment of the body during all phases of a mission. Risks are likely to shift during different mission segments, and understanding how components of a mission profile change risks will assist mission planners to increase chances for mission success.

Christopher Zahner↗

Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Jaegle, Lyatt↗

Proposed Mars Surveyor Landing Sites in Northern Meridiani Sinus, Southern Elysium Planitia, and Argyre Planitia

Our objective is to propose two landing sites that the Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander and Athena Rover could go to on Mars that should meet the safety requirements of the spacecraft landing system and optimize surface operations (chiefly driven by power and communications requirements). An additional site within Argyre Planitia, initially proposed by Parker to the Mars Surveyor Landing Site program, is also proposed for potential consideration for post-2001 missions to Mars, as it is well outside the current latitude limits for the Athena Rover. All three sites are designed to be situated as close to a diversity of geologic units within a few kilometers of the landing site so that diversity can be placed in a geologic context. This objective is very different from the Mars Pathfinder requirement to land at a site with a maximum chance for containing a diversity of rocks within a few tens of meters of the lander. That requirement was driven by the Sojourner mobility limit of a few tens of meters. It can be argued that the Athena project, with its much larger mobility capability, might actually want to avoid such a site, because placing collected samples in geologic context would be difficult. While it has been argued, both before and after the Mars Pathfinder landing, that the provenance for local blocks may be determined by orbiter spectra, primarily from the MGS TES instrument, our ability to do so has yet to be demonstrated. Indeed, several months after conclusion of the Pathfinder mission, we have yet to reach a consensus on the composition of local materials. Our primary data set for selecting a landing site within the latitude and elevation constraints of the 2001 mission is the Viking Orbiter image archive. The site must be selected to place the landing ellipse so as to avoid obvious hazards, such as steep slopes, large or numerous craters, or abundant large knobs. For this purpose, we chose a resolution limit of better than 50 m/pixel. This necessarily excludes from the present study images from current and future orbiter spacecraft, until such data does become readily available. Within each proposed region, it may be possible to identify additional sites once these data become available. Second, the fine-component thermal inertia data, should be greater than about 5 or 6 cgs Units (10(exp -3) cal/sq cm s(exp -0.5)/K). Low thermal inertias imply dusty environments, which could pose a mobility hazard. Similarly, the albedo of the site should not be particularly high, which would also suggest dusty surfaces. Low albedos are preferred, as they often coincide with low Viking red:violet ratios and indicate less dusty surfaces. Next, the Modeled Block Abundance should also not be too high or too low. Based on the Viking Lander and Mars Pathfinder experiences, percentages of blocks should be on the order of 5-25%. Too many blocks could pose a hazard to the landing and mobility. Too few blocks could also indicate a dusty surface. Primary Landing Site: Northern Meridiani Sinus (Proposed by T. J. Parker and K., S. Edgett) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 0-3 N, 350-2 W. *Elevation (Viking): about0.5-1.5 Ian. (2) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbits 709A and 410B). Possible stereo coverage in region where two orbits overlap (probably small parallax angle, as these orbits are not listed in NASA Contractor Report 3501) (3) Albedo: about .18 -.26 (4) Block Abundance: 5-26% (5)Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: 5-9 cgs units This region consists of bright deposits similar to those described by Edgett et al, that also lie within a prominent dark albedo region. These deposits are flat-lying, to such a degree that they ramp against topography rather than draping over it. This led Edgett and Parker to suggest that they may be subaqueous sediments, possibly lacustrine or marine evaporites, laid down sometime from the late Noachian to middle Hesperian (age determination pending crater counts). A contact between this material and elevated, dissected highlands to the south was identified , and is described by Edgett et al. Our desire in proposing this landing site is to sample the edge of this deposit where it has been exposed through etching, presumably eolian deflation (the deposit, though in the highlands, is itself only lightly to moderately cratered). This should enable access to in situ stratigraphy. The actual landing site will be selected where slopes are not expected to be steep, such that the rover itself should be able to traverse them and sample layered materials on the way, either up or down the slope. Perhaps due to uncertainties at this time as to the friability or meter-scale roughness of the deposit, it might make sense to place the landing ellipse on the exhumed highland surface adjacent to the deflated margin of the deposit and plan on driving to the deposit rather than landing on it and driving downslope. This should also enable imaging the margin for evidence of layering should it prove too difficult to climb. A target ellipse on the highland surface should also allow Athena access to ancient Noachian highland materials, particularly if placed near crater ejecta or an inlier of knobby material. Secondary Landing Site: Southern Elysium Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 1.5-3.5 S, 195-198 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): -1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbit 725). Possible stereo coverage between images from beginning and end of orbit that overlap (probably small parallax angle) (4) Albedo: about .27-.28 (5) Block Abundance: 4-7% (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: about 3 cgs units This region consists of eroded knobby material, probably of Noachian age, though much of the crater population has been destroyed, that is onlapped at a sharp contact by an extensive plains unit in southern Elysium Planitia that is Amazonian in age. The plains materials have been attributed to unusually low-viscosity flood lavas from fissures south of the Elysium volcanic rise, or to lacustrine materials associated with a large, Amazonian lake at the source of Marte Vallis. Parker and Schenk presented evidence in support of the latter interpretation, though they attributed the putative shore morphology to an embayment of a northern plains ocean into the southern Elysium region. Detailed examination of the margin of the deposit, showing erosion, not simply burial, of small crater rims and fluidized ejecta blankets, also points to lacustrine or marine sedimentation rather than volcanic plains burial. The plains surface exhibits a "crusty" appearance that many researchers have attributed to pressure ridges in lava flows. In a lacustrine context, they also resemble pressure ridges in desiccated evaporite deposits and salt-rimmed pools (now dry) similar in scale and morphology to spectacular, hundred meter-scale pool rims in alkaline Lake Natron, East African Rift. The eroded highland margin surface adjacent to these plains appears to be fairly smooth, even at 15 m/pixel. Isolated knob inliers are scattered from a few kilometers to several tens of "kilometers apart. Heights of the knobs have not been measured yet but, based on experience with similar features in the Pathfinder landing ellipse, are probably typically on the order of several tens of meters high and smaller, though some of the largest knobs in the region are probably up to a few hundred meters high. Two craters larger than a kilometer in diameter, with fluidized deposits, lie nearby the proposed landing site. Very high-resolution images from MOC should help to determine whether a landing site navigable by the Athena rover could be placed in this region. The space between knobs and craters is large enough to enable placement of a target landing ellipse between them but still provide access to one or more of them and to the margin of the Elysium plains material. Post-2001 Mars Surveyor Landing Site: Argyre Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 55-56 S, 41-43 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): 1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 40 m/pixel images (orbits 567B, 568B, and 569B). Excellent stereo coverage with large parallax angles over the entire landing site region, and much of central and southern Argyre. (4) Albedo: about .23-.24 (5) Block Abundance: No data (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: No data The floors of both the Argyre and Hellas basins contain etched layered materials that are probably thick accumulations of channel or lacustrine sediments. The deposits in Hellas are much more eroded than those in Argyre, and Hellas lacks a channel outlet. Argyre is unique in that Uzboi Vallis flowed out of the basin, requiring overflow of a standing body of water within Argyre. This makes it the largest impact basin on Mars with channels both draining into it and flowing out from it. Hellas' channels may be catastrophic flood channels, whereas Argyre was fed by modest-scale valley networks, though the outlet at Uzboi Vallis was a catastrophic flood Highland craters and basins of this kind should be high-priority landing targets for missions intended to focus on the search for either prebiotic organic materials or even simple fossil microorganisms. Basins with internally-draining valley networks should be preferred over flood channels, as they could have provided the long-term influx of water favorable to the origin of life. (Catastrophic floods are not conducive to fossil preservation, due to their very short durations and high transportation energies). They also afford an opportunity to study the evolution of the planet's climate and volatiles during the period of time between the late Noachian and early Hesperian, when a drastic change from a proposed early warm, wet climate to one more closely resembling the modern environment is thought to have occurred. Large basin

Parker, T. J.↗

Advanced EVA Suit Camera System Development Project

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a new extra-vehicular activity (EVA) suit known as the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit. All of the improvements to the EVA Suit provide the opportunity to update the technology of the video imagery. My summer internship project involved improving the video streaming capabilities of the cameras that will be used on the Z2 Suit for data acquisition. To accomplish this, I familiarized myself with the architecture of the camera that is currently being tested to be able to make improvements on the design. Because there is a lot of benefit to saving space, power, and weight on the EVA suit, my job was to use Altium Design to start designing a much smaller and simplified interface board for the camera's microprocessor and external components. This involved checking datasheets of various components and checking signal connections to ensure that this architecture could be used for both the Z2 suit and potentially other future projects. The Orion spacecraft is a specific project that may benefit from this condensed camera interface design. The camera's physical placement on the suit also needed to be determined and tested so that image resolution can be maximized. Many of the options of the camera placement may be tested along with other future suit testing. There are multiple teams that work on different parts of the suit, so the camera's placement could directly affect their research or design. For this reason, a big part of my project was initiating contact with other branches and setting up multiple meetings to learn more about the pros and cons of the potential camera placements we are analyzing. Collaboration with the multiple teams working on the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit is absolutely necessary and these comparisons will be used as further progress is made for the overall suit design. This prototype will not be finished in time for the scheduled Z2 Suit testing, so my time was also spent creating a case for the original interface board that is already being used. This design is being done by use of Creo 2. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to complete the 3-D printing portion of this design, but I was able to use my knowledge of the interface board and Altium Design to help in the task. As a side project, I assisted another intern in selecting and programming a microprocessor to control linear actuators. These linear actuators will be used to move various increments of polyethylene for controlled radiation testing. For this, we began the software portion of the project using the Arduino's coding environment to control an Arduino Due and H-Bridge components. Along with the obvious learning of computer programs such as Altium Design and Creo 2, I also acquired more skills with networking and collaborating with others, being able to multi-task because of responsibilities to work on various projects, and how to set realistic goals in the work place. Like many internship projects, this project will be continued and improved, so I also had the chance to improve my organization and communication skills as I documented all of my meetings and research. As a result of my internship at JSC, I desire to continue a career with NASA, whether that be through another internship or possibly a co-op. I am excited to return to my university and continue my education in electrical engineering because of all of my experiences at JSC.

Mock, Kyla↗

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. I. Validation of the TOI-700 System

We present the discovery and validation of a three-planet system orbiting the nearby (31.1 pc) M2 dwarf star TOI-700 (TIC 150428135). TOI-700 lies in the TESS continuous viewing zone in the Southern Ecliptic Hemisphere; observations spanning 11 sectors reveal three planets with radii ranging from 1 R⊕ to 2.6 R⊕ and orbital periods ranging from 9.98 to 37.43 days. Ground-based follow-up combined with diagnostic vetting and validation tests enables us to rule out common astrophysical false-positive scenarios and validate the system of planets. The outermost planet, TOI-700 d, has a radius of 1.19 ± 0.11 R⊕ and resides within a conservative estimate of the host star's habitable zone, where it receives a flux from its star that is approximately 86% of Earth's insolation. In contrast to some other low-mass stars that host Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones, TOI-700 exhibits low levels of stellar activity, presenting a valuable opportunity to study potentially rocky planets over a wide range of conditions affecting atmospheric escape. While atmospheric characterization of TOI-700 d with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be challenging, the larger sub-Neptune, TOI-700 c (R = 2.63 R⊕), will be an excellent target for JWST and future space-based observatories. TESS is scheduled to once again observe the Southern Hemisphere, and it will monitor TOI-700 for an additional 11 sectors in its extended mission. These observations should allow further constraints on the known planet parameters and searches for additional planets and transit timing variations in the system.

Emily A. Gilbert↗

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAMPEX science pointing with velocity avoidance

The Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) science pointing mode is presented with the additional constraint of velocity avoidance. This constraint has been added in light of the orbital debris and micrometeoroid fluxes that have been revealed by the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) recovered in January 1990. These fluxes are 50-100 times higher than the flux tables that were used in the September 1988 proposal to NASA for the SAMPEX mission. The SAMPEX Heavey Ion Large Telescope (HILT) sensor includes a flow-through isobutane proportional counter that is susceptible to penetration by orbital debris and micrometeoroids. Thus, keeping the HILT sensor pointed away from the velocity vector, the direction of maximum flux, will compensate for the higher than expected fluxes. Using an orbital debris model and a micrometeoroid model developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC), and a SAMPEX dynamic simulator developed by the Guidance and Control Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), an 'optimal' minimum ram angle (the angle between the HILT boresight and the velocity vector) of 90 degrees has been determined. It is optimal in the sense of minimizing the science pointing performance degradation while providing approximately an 89 percent chance of survival for the HILT sensor over a three year period.

Frakes, Joseph P.↗

A variational assimilation method for satellite and conventional data: Development of basic model for diagnosis of cyclone systems

A three-dimensional diagnostic model for the assimilation of satellite and conventional meteorological data is developed with the variational method of undetermined multipliers. Gridded fields of data from different type, quality, location, and measurement source are weighted according to measurement accuracy and merged using least squares criteria so that the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation are satisfied. The model is used to compare multivariate variational objective analyses with and without satellite data with initial analyses and the observations through criteria that were determined by the dynamical constraints, the observations, and pattern recognition. It is also shown that the diagnoses of local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components are in good comparison with the observed patterns and tendencies calculated with unadjusted data. In addition, it is found that the day-night difference in TOVS biases are statistically different (95% confidence) at most levels. Also developed is a hybrid nonlinear sigma vertical coordinate that eliminates hydrostatic truncation error in the middle and upper troposphere and reduces truncation error in the lower troposphere. Finally, it is found that the technique used to grid the initial data causes boundary effects to intrude into the interior of the analysis a distance equal to the average separation between observations.

Achtemeier, G. L.↗