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At least 91 records · Page 5

Respecting causality for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. Here we provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier–Stokes equations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Insights into Cation Ordering of Double Perovskite Oxides from Machine Learning and Causal Relations

This work investigates origins of cation ordering in double perovskites using first-principles theory computations combined with machine learning (ML) and causal relations. We have considered various oxidation states of A, A', B, and B' from the family of transition metal ions to construct a diverse compositional space. A conventional framework employing traditional ML classification algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) coupled with appropriate features including geometry-driven and key structural modes leads to accurate prediction (~98%) of A-site cation ordering. We have evaluated the accuracy of ML models by employing analyses of decision paths, assignments of probabilistic confidence bound, and finally a direct non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model to investigate causality. Our study suggests that structural modes are crucial for classifying layered, columnar, and rock-salt ordering. The charge difference between A and A' is the most important feature for predicting clear layered ordering, which in turn depends on the B and B' charge separation. We have also designed mathematical relationships with these features to derive energy differences to form clear layered ordering. Here, the trilinear coupling between tilt, in-phase rotation, and A-site antiferroelectric displacement in the Landau free-energy expansion becomes the necessary condition behind formation of A-site cation ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonlinear causality and strong hyperbolicity of baryon-rich Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics

We present the first set of fully-nonlinear, necessary and sufficient conditions guaranteeing causal evolution of the initial data for the Israel-Stewart hydrodynamic equations with shear and bulk viscosity coupled to a nonzero baryon current. These constraints not only provide nonlinear causality: they also (a) guarantee the existence of a locally well-posed evolution of the initial data (they enforce strong hyperbolicity) when excluding the endpoints of the bounds, (b) arise from purely algebraic constraints that make no underlying symmetry assumptions on the degrees of freedom and (c) propagate the relevant symmetries of the degrees of freedom over the entire evolution of the problem. Our work enforces a mathematically rigorous foundation for future studies of viscous relativistic hydrodynamics with baryon-rich matter including neutron star mergers and heavy-ion collisions.

Cordeiro, Ian [University of Illinois Urbana-Champ↗

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗

Dispersion Relations Alone Cannot Guarantee Causality

We show that linear superpositions of plane waves involving a single-valued, covariantly stable dispersion relation ω ( k ) always propagate outside the light cone unless ω ( k ) = a + b k . This implies that there is no notion of causality for individual dispersion relations since no mathematical condition on the function ω ( k ) (such as the front velocity or the asymptotic group velocity conditions) can serve as a sufficient condition for subluminal propagation in dispersive media. Instead, causality can only emerge from a careful cancellation that occurs when one superimposes all the excitation branches of a physical model. This happens automatically in local theories of matter that are covariantly stable. Hence, we find that the need for nonhydrodynamic modes in relativistic fluid mechanics is analogous to the need for antiparticles in relativistic quantum mechanics. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Universal CMB 𝐵-mode spectrum from early causal tensor sources

Many early Universe scenarios predict postinflationary tensor perturbations from causality-limited, subhorizon sources. While the microphysical details may be different, as long as these sources are bounded in duration and correlation length, their tensor power spectra exhibit a universal scaling behavior at small wave number: 𝒫 ℎ ⁡(𝑘)∝𝑘 3 , corresponding to white noise on superhorizon scales at the time of production. If these early causal tensor sources (ECTs) exclusively produce gravitational waves before redshift 𝑧 ∼10 5 , this scaling is realized on all of the scales observed in the CMB, and thus yields a universal multipole distribution for the 𝐵-mode angular power spectrum. Unlike the scale-invariant distributions of inflationary 𝐵 modes, ECTs generically predict enhanced power on small scales and suppressed power on large scales, which allows these source classes to be distinguished given measurements over a sufficient range of angular scales. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework for characterizing ECTs and demonstrate how their universal infrared scaling manifests in low-frequency observables, including CMB 𝐵 modes and stochastic gravitational wave spectral densities. We illustrate this mapping with representative case studies of this universality class involving first-order phase transitions, topological defects, and enhanced scalar perturbations, which source tensor modes at second order in perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for Causal Discovery

SAND2025-11742O Methods for Causal Discovery is a software tool that is used for causal discovery from data, including predicting and visualizing directed acyclic graphs from data using traditional machine learning techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗

Identification of Colletotrichum aenigma as the new causal agent of leaf blight disease on Aucuba japonica Thunb., and screenings of effective fungicides for its sustainable management

Aucuba japonica Thunb is an evergreen woody ornamental plant with significant economic and ecological values. It also produces aucubin, showing a variety of biological activities. It is widely planted in the southwest region of China, including karst landscape areas in Guizhou Province. In January 2022, a serious leaf blight disease was observed on the leaves of A. japonica in the outdoor gardens of Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, China. The causal agent was identified as Colletotrichum aenigma through amplification and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region, translation of the chitin synthase ( CHS ) and actin ( ACT ) genes, and morphological characterizations. Koch’s postulates were confirmed by its pathogenicity on healthy leaves, including re-isolation and identification. To our knowledge, this is the first report of C. aenigma causing leaf blight on A. japonica worldwide. To identify pathogen characteristics that could be utilized for future disease management, the effects of temperature and light on mycelial growth, conidia production, and conidial germination, and the effects of humidity on conidial germination were studied. Optimal temperatures for mycelial growth of C. aenigma BY827 were 25–30°C, while 15°C and 35°C were favorable for conidia production. Concurrently, alternating 10-h light and 14-h dark, proved to be beneficial for mycelial growth and conidial germination. Additionally, conidial germination was enhanced at 90% humidity. In vitro screenings of ten chemical pesticides to assess their efficacy in suppressing C. aenigma representative strain BY827. Among them, difenoconazole showed the best inhibition rate, with an EC 50 (concentration for 50% of maximal effect) value of 0.0148 μg/ml. Subsequently, field experiment results showed that difenoconazole had the highest control efficiency on A. japonica leaf blight (the decreasing rate of disease incidence and decreasing rate of disease index were 44.60 and 47.75%, respectively). Interestingly, we discovered that C. aenigma BY827 may develop resistance to mancozeb, which is not reported yet among Colletotrichum spp. strains. In conclusion, our study provided new insights into the causal agent of A. japonica leaf blight, and the effective fungicides evaluated provided an important basis and potential resource for the sustainable control of A. japonica leaf blight caused by C. aenigma in the field.

Fan, Ruidong↗

Causality of plasma permittivity with loss and restoring terms

The causality of the complex permittivity for a plasma model in which both loss and restoring terms are included is shown. Discussions as to what occurs in this causality property when the loss and restoring terms vanish are presented. Results are shown to agree with earlier work.

Cockrell, C. R.↗

Steady flow on to a conveyor belt - Causal viscosity and shear shocks

Some hydrodynamical consequences of the adoption of a causal theory of viscosity are explored. Causality is introduced into the theory by letting the coefficient of viscosity go to zero as the flow velocity approaches a designated propagation speed for viscous signals. Consideration is given to a model of viscosity which has a finite propagation speed of shear information, and it is shown that it produces two kinds of shear shock. A 'pure shear shock' corresponds to a transition from a superviscous to a subviscous state with no discontinuity in the velocity. A 'mixed shear shock' has a shear transition occurring at the same location as a normal adiabatic or radiative shock. A generalized version of the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions for mixed shear shocks is derived, and self-consistent numerical solutions to a model 2D problem in which an axisymmetric radially infalling stream encounters a spinning star are presented.

Syer, D.↗

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

Johnson, C. W.↗

Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

Jacobson, Steven R.↗

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

Photosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe.

photosynthesis↗

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗

A GPU‐Accelerated Generative Adversarial Model for Causal Inference

We develop a GPU-accelerated machine learning generative adversarial model designed to facilitate causal inferences from observational data. Our model's theoretical framework is conceptualized in a manner that is amenable to being operable and scalable for high-performance computing platforms. We leverage GPU acceleration to develop a parallel evolutionary algorithm to achieve large-scale parallel computation of the model within a now widely accessible computing platform. This capability both enhances computational speedup and efficiency and also extends the use of the model to a broader range of substantive research domains while maintaining the underlying theoretical properties of the model.

GPU↗