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Energy storage at all timescales, including the seasonal scale, plays a pivotal role in enabling increased penetration levels of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sources in power systems.
Wash vehicles containing either high- or low-pressure water sprayers, a collection of rotating brushes, or a combination of these, are frequently utilized in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to maintain a high level of optical efficiency in the solar field. In recent years, multiple modeling approaches have been developed to obtain fleet sizes and mirror-washing schedules that optimize the tradeoff of vehicle capital and use costs and labor versus lost revenues due to soiling. These planning models cover normal operating conditions well but do not consider rare events such as dust storms which can cause a significant reduction in receiver productivity, or shut down operations until most or all of the solar field's mirrors have been cleaned. To that end, we propose a methodology that evaluates whether additional capital should be deployed to hedge against these events by weighing the net present value of the expected benefits against the capital costs. The output of this method is a breakeven frequency, a metric we sue to determine whether an additional vehicle should be purchased to address the contingency of dust storms by comparing it to the expected annual storm frequency We develop a small collection of case studies using commercial-scale CSP tower plants and obtain breakeven frequencies that mostly fall between 0.1 and 1.0 storms per year, depending on the existing fleet size and storm severity.
A compact gantry delivering 70-220 MeV protons with fixed field in the superconducting magnets could reduce the cost and improve the adoption of proton therapy. While a number of magnet and cryogenics designs have been proposed, the combined capital and operating costs of state-of-the-art superconducting materials have not been analyzed. In response, we develop a thermoeconomic model of a multi-stage, conduction cooled gantry lattice and analyze the cryocooler operating cost, cryocooler capital cost and conductor capital cost for Nb-Ti, Nb 3 Sn, REBCO and Bi-2223 over a continuous range of magnet temperatures, and a differential evolution algorithm is used to identify the optimal combination of thermal intercept temperatures. Although Nb3Sn yields the lowest Net Present Value (NPV) of $111.7k at a magnet temperature of 9.4 K, the optimized Bi-2223 design at 12.8 K approaches the realm of commercial feasibility by offering improved thermal stability and forgoing the need for costly conductor heat treatment and magnet quench training. Furthermore, it was found that Nb3Sn was more cost effective than Nb-Ti and that REBCO was not economically viable for the parameters of this investigation. Overall, the thermoeconomic model developed herein can optimize conductor choices, magnet temperatures and thermal staging which has value for any conduction-cooled superconducting magnet.
Because the wave energy industry is still in its infancy, an optimal design for wave energy converters (WECs) has yet to be established; more work is needed to explore various cost-reduction pathways. The primary cost-reduction pathway considered for this work is the optimization of the geometric profile on an attenuator WEC to maximize power production while, at the same time, minimizing capital expenditures through the use of variable-geometry modules. In this investigation, the variable-geometry modules consist of inflatable bags placed on either side of a base central steel cylinder that would be inflated in low-moderate sea states to maximize power capture and then deflated in moderate-extreme sea states to minimize wave loading. The numerical model and simulation of the attenuator WEC were developed and completed using WEC-Sim, which is an open-source code that is appropriate for use in evaluating the dynamic response of the different WEC models in operational seas. The power production estimates were obtained from the Wave Energy Prize (WEP) sea states, which are representative of U. S. deployment sites, to calculate the average climate capture width that is used in the WEP ACE calculation. Preliminary capital expenditure costs were obtained assuming the base central steel cylinder mass was equal to the fluid displaced mass, minus the mass of the variable-geometry bags. The additional weight required to offset the additional buoyancy from the variable-geometry bags was assumed to come from the addition of seawater ballast. The variable-geometry attenuator model was found to have a similar power capture efficiency as a fixed-body model, but is expected to have a lower characteristic capital expenditure given its more streamlined profile, which demonstrates that variable-geometry modules may provide a realistic cost-reduction pathway to help design a more cost-competitive WEC.
The global cement manufacturing industry is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario" identifies CCS as a major strategy for meeting that goal. This project is among the first attempts to transfer capture technology developed at coal-fired power plants to the cement industry. The main objective of the project is to execute and complete a front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separates 95% of the total CO2 emissions at the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility using Air Liquide’s Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology. The Holcim Ste. Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, US, boasts one of the largest single cement production lines in the world, with a capacity of approximately 12,000 t/day. The plant currently uses traditional fuels, namely coal and petcoke. The captured CO2 will be pipeline and geological storage grade. The industrial host site emits approximately 3.0 million tonne CO2/yr. Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ technology has been developed over the last 18+ years for CO2 capture applications. It has been shown to be applicable to a variety of industrial applications (e.g., steel, cement, SMR, Fluidized Catalytic Crackers (FCCs)). Cryocap™ FG consists of a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) unit coupled with a Cryogenic System. The PSA pre-concentrates the CO2 from the flue gas, while the cryogenic unit enables the CO2 purity to be increased to the desired level. The project team is led by the Prairie Research Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The tasks include: complete FEED study for retrofitting the industrial facility with a carbon capture system to support developing a detailed cost estimate; business case analysis outlining the anticipated revenue and credits if projects was built and operated; technoeconomic analysis (TEA) outlining how capture system achieves DOE capture goals; and life cycle (LCA) analysis demonstrating zero net carbon emissions. The FEED study was successfully completed. This includes completing the process basis of design; preliminary engineering; outside battery limits (OSBL) detailed engineering including a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) wastewater treatment system; inside battery limits (ISBL) detailed engineering [1]. An overall project capital cost estimate within a -20%/+30% accuracy was developed. The major contributors to the Total Plant Cost (TPC), by system, are the costs associated with the Outside Battery Limit (OSBL) section of the plant which includes a new river water intake structure and a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) system. By cost category, the major contributors to the TPC are equipment and subcontractor costs, followed closely by engineering, construction management, home office and contractor fees. The TEA has been created to reflect the findings of the project. It analyzes the economic performance of the Cryocap™ technology by reviewing the estimated capital costs, operating cost, and revenue. The Cost of Capture (COC) associated with the Cryocap™ technology for 95% CO2 capture, when considering NETL 2018 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 5.15% interest on debt and 1.42% return on equity in real dollars) and 2022 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 8.82% interest on debt and 4.90% return on equity in real dollars) was found to be much lower than that for the DOE-NETL’s base-line cases. The highest contributors to the COC are annualized capital expenditures (CAPEX) and electricity consumption which can be offset by using lower cost renewable sources. The LCA was conducted using OpenLCA which is an open-source software that is recommended by NETL. The database utilized for this study was a modified version of TRACI 2.1 (developed by the US. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Risk Management Research Laboratory and modified by NETL). The Cryocap™ FG technology does not consume fuels in significant quantities and does not utilize specialized chemical solvents subject to decomposition, such as those utilized in amine-based carbon capture systems. The Cryocap™ FG technology mainly utilizes electricity as its energy input; hence, its calculated emissions are mainly associated with the generation of electricity offsite and are dependent on the energy matrix of the grid at the time of project implementation. The water consumption impact of the Cryocap™ FG is mostly for makeup of the water lost by evaporation in the cooling tower; however, the carbon capture plant will be equipped with a ZLD system to avoid effluent streams and minimize water consumption. The successful construction and operation of this plant based on this study results will provide a means to demonstrate an economically attractive and transformational capture technology that can be used to retrofit existing plants and be deployed at new plants.
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.
ION Engineering LLC (ION) has coupled its proven, solvent-based CO 2 capture technology with an exceptionally qualified design and engineering team to complete a pre FEED for a 300-megawatt equivalent commercial-scale CO 2 capture plant for Gerald Gentleman Station’s (GGS) Generation Unit 2 (GGS2). The remarkable team was comprised of ION, Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), Sargent & Lundy (S&L) with continued support from Koch Modular Process Systems (KMPS), and Siemens. The overall objective of the project was to provide the engineering design and cost estimate at an American Association of Cost Engineers (AACE) Class 3 estimate, resulting in accuracy ranges of -20 to +30% for the capital cost estimate. The project team was successful in completing this objective and was able to overcome the challenges that were presented during the process. A conservative interest rate of 7.0% with a financing term of 20 years was used based on interest rates utilized by S&L for this level of study. The resulting annualization factor is multiplied by the total EPC cost to calculate an annualized capital expenditure. It is estimated that the carbon capture facility treating a 300 MWe slipstream will capture 1.9 million tonnes per year of CO 2 at a capacity factor of 85%. The resulting cost of capture for the CO 2 island was determined to be $\$$36.55/tonne. Utilizing an interest rate of 4.5%, supported by historical rates for previous large capital projects in the power industry, reduces the cost of capture to $32.52/tonne. These cost of capture numbers continue to further ION’s case for commercial deployment of ION’s solvent technology.
Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.
The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.
Over the last decade, a deteriorating security environment has brought into sharp focus the atrophy of strategic thought that occurred after the Cold War. At a time of intensifying major power rivalry, renewed urgency about the effectiveness of deterrence and the reliability of strategic stability, and mounting threats by nuclear armed and -arming “rogue states,” the need for new intellectual capital has become more pressing. But the U.S. analytical community shed a great deal of capability and capacity in the 1990s and after the 9/11 attacks was long focused on other problems. In recent years, the United States has slowly begun to rebuild institutional capacity and to reinvest in the development of the necessary human capital and analytical tools. One symptom of past atrophy was the near-complete collapse of transatlantic dialogue on these matters. One indicator of the nascent renewal is the reemergence of transatlantic collaboration, especially among early career professionals. In recent years it has also become clear that European institutions too are beginning to rebuild capacity and reinvest in human capital. This small volume is the result of a collective effort by four institutions to take stock of the state of strategic thought in Europe as it relates to deterrence and to advance transatlantic dialogue on deterrence. As a co-organizer of this process, CGSR is pleased to produce this edited collection of papers on behalf of the group. I am especially grateful to Amelia Morgan and Anna Péczeli for their role as coeditors. Please note that the views expressed here are the personal views of the authors and should not be attributed to the Laboratory, its sponsors, or any of the institutions with which the authors are or have been affiliated. Please also note that the Laboratory assumes no responsibility for the validity of the information used by the authors, who have drawn on information in common usage in Europe to inform their thinking.
With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.
Deep decarbonization of major industries such as metals manufacturing requires extensive process integration and controls to manage feedstocks, side reactions, heat, water, and waste streams. The scale of the energy and capital investment requires that process integration be validated to a high level of confidence with no bias. Industries such as steel production have very thin profit margins. Therefore, lack of confidence in process integration, product quality, and economics is a major deterrence to changes in manufacturing capital investment. Public sector investment in reconfigurable pilot testbeds and a first-of-a-kind plant would be necessary to de-risk technical and financial barriers prior to industry-wide buildout. DOE should consider a National Lab-led hub for the testbeds. Lab testbeds could be utilized in campaigns and allow multiple industrial partners to evaluate and validate technologies prior to making major capital investments.
The entry cost for prototyping a composite component for manufacture using automated, high rate processes is prohibitively expensive in many cases, especially for small business, where tooling costs may be several $100k. Discussions with industry also indicate that many small companies, tier 1 and 2 suppliers, have an interest to mold composite parts but do not want to deal with the capital cost, material handling issues, and labor associated with dry fiber preforming operations. While the molders may locate near the end user for logistics reasons, it may be more cost effective for the performer to remain regional and invest in capital equipment to support preform automation, thus keeping costs to a minimum. This project was designed to explore and demonstrate several options to meet these industry needs. Dry fiber preforming approaches were evaluated which allow for low pressure resin infusion, single sided tooling options such a vacuum assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM) or low pressure resin transfer molding (RTM-light). Unlike sheet molding compound, SMC compression molding where typical molding pressures of 1000 psi are required to push material into the desired location; positioning of a dry fiber preform into the desired location on the tool allows for low molding pressures of 10-50 psi. Lower molding pressures allow for use of low cost, additive fabrication of polymeric tooling. Polymeric tooling is suitable for rapid part prototyping and limited production. Dry fiber preforming approaches evaluated included use of commercial chopped strand mat, robotic chopper gun deposition, and continuous fiber preform augmentation using tailored fiber placement (TFP). Use of chopped strand mat does not require a robotic deposition method, however a cutting table is generally required and there is typically 20-30% scrap generation. While various fiber areal weights are available, the preform is not readily optimized for minimal fiber use or weight savings. In contrast, a robotic chopper gun approach allows for localized deposition where fiber is required to meet structural requirements. The robotic method is highly automated and minimizes fiber scrap, however the capital cost of the equipment and engineering labor for programming can result in higher preform cost compared to chopped strand mat in certain cases depending on preform complexity. Dry fiber preforming using the robotic chopper gun method allows for creation of three dimensional forms. This approach may be ideal for molding in-house, or if the preforms stack together densely to allow for efficient shipping. Applications evaluated for this program considered trade-off between fabrication of a fully 3D preform versus production of a flat preform which is designed to readily drape into the final desired shape. Such a preform design greatly simplifies robotic programming and requires no specialized tooling. The flat preforms are easily stacked and shipped to the final molding location. Flat preforms are much easier to augment with TFP continuous fiber to provide local reinforcement. The demonstration and evaluation of these preforming and tooling methods were completed on three component applications. The first application was a battery box cover for an electric vehicle which was highly three dimensional. The second demonstrator article was comprised of complex contours and was used to demonstrate the use of TFP and RTM-light molding process. The third demonstration article was the roof of an operator’s cab for large construction equipment. The roof is relatively flat however it is comprised of complex changes in thickness which clearly demonstrate the advantage of robotic chopper gun approach as compared to using numerous preform layers of chopped strand mat. The cost trades for the various preforming methods are summarized to help guide the reader as to preforming method considerations. Finally, these demonstrations all used glass fiber roving. A fourth, exploratory task was added to evaluate the ability to make preforms using Zoltek’s carbon fiber split tow roving. We were able to adapt the chopper gun to make flat preforms for laminate testing, but further development effort would be required to make suitable preforms.
An earned value management system (EVMS), which monitors contractor performance, is a requirement for program and project management for all major acquisitions by the United States Federal Government with development effort: (i.e., an asset requiring management attention because of its importance to an agency’s mission; high development, operating, or maintenance costs; high risk and/or high return). As an area less explored in earned value management (EVM) practices, this paper will survey the application of an EVMS for operations activities defined as: (1) Non-capital asset activities that are projects (or project - like) with definable start and end dates, with discrete scopes of work, and measurable accomplishments; as well as (2) Routine or recurring facility or environmental operations. This paper will examine the use of an EVMS to evaluate performance of operations and maintenance activities required once construction of a capital asset is complete and being used as intended. Such activities include upgrades and maintenance in order for capital assets to meet their mission function over a life-cycle (through repair, replacement, etc.). This paper will provide background on this topic from the perspective of the Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program. In addition, it will provide material from a panel discussion provided by a group of experts from the October 2019 Office of Environmental Management Project Management Workshop, as well as material from subsequent research on this topic.
The maritime industry is investigating a number of fuel options for reducing emissions, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), biofuels, and electrical drive systems powered by batteries and/or hydrogen-fueled fuel cells. Hydrogen-fueled ships offer the potential to significantly reduce, if not eliminate, regulated and unregulated pollutants in maritime applications. Argonne National Laboratory conducted preliminary comparisons of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of several classes of ships to determine how fuel cell technology compares to the current diesel technology, what advancements are needed for hydrogen fuel cell technology to be competitive in the future, and what applications may be appropriate for introducing fuel cells into the maritime industry. These studies included feeder container ships, harbor tugboats, river pushboats, and auto/passenger ferries. For this study, TCO was defined to include the cost of fuel, propulsion system, and fuel storage system, the levelized cost of propulsion/auxiliary engines, and the cost of annual maintenance and consumables. It did not include the cost of the vessel frame or other components, aside from the propulsion system, that the fuel cell and diesel ships have in common. A 10% internal rate of return (IRR) was applied to the initial capital investment and an installation cost factor of 20% was applied to the capital cost. The capital cost of each component (e.g., engine, fuel tank, motor, etc.) was amortized over a period of 20 years, except for the fuel cell system, which was amortized over 6 or 10 years depending on ship class. The initial comparisons for container ships indicate that fuel costs are by far the dominant contributor to the TCO. With the current low cost of low-sulfur marine gasoil (LSMGO) and relatively high cost of hydrogen, it is difficult for hydrogen to compete with LSMGO in container ship applications. The large energy demand for container ships also favors the use of the higher volumetric energy density LSMGO fuel, especially for longer voyages. The space required to store enough hydrogen for the same journey is larger than that needed to store diesel fuels and can reduce the available cargo carrying and revenue generating space available on the ship.
TDA developed and demonstrated a highly efficient pre-combustion carbon capture system. The overall objective of this work was to develop a new sorbent-based pre-combustion carbon capture technology for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants. In this project our goal was to demonstrate the techno-economic viability of the new technology by 1) demonstrating it in large-scale slipstream tests, and 2) carrying out a high fidelity engineering and cost analysis. TDA’s process used an advanced physical adsorbent that selectively removes CO 2 from coal-derived synthesis gas above the dew point of the gas at temperatures as high as 300°C. The sorbent consists of a mesoporous carbon whose surface was grafted with functional groups that remove CO 2 via a well-known acid-base interaction. As documented in bench-scale experiments and field tests with actual coal gas, the sorbent achieved a very high capacity for CO 2 at temperatures as high as 300°C. The sorbent bound CO 2 more strongly than common physical adsorbents, providing the chemical potential needed for the high temperature operation. However, because CO 2 does not form a true covalent bond with the surface sites (as is the case with chemical absorbents), the sorbent regeneration could be carried out with only a very small energy input. The heat input to regenerate our sorbent was only 4.9 kcal per mol of CO 2 , which is much lower than that for chemical absorbents (e.g., 29.9 kcal/mol CO 2 for sodium carbonate) and was similar to the requirements of physical solvents (e.g., 4 kcal/mol CO 2 for Selexol TM ). Because the sorbent operates above the dew point of the synthesis gas (unlike the Selexol TM process), a higher power cycle efficiency can be achieved. With previous DOE/NETL funding (Contract No. DE-FE-0000469), we demonstrated the techno-economic viability of the technology in bench-scale tests and slipstream demonstrations at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC), Wilsonville, Alabama and Wabash River IGCC plant in Terra Haute, Indiana. We demonstrated a stable working CO 2 capacity for over 11,650 cycles with simulated synthesis gas. We also evaluated its performance with actual synthesis gas in two test campaigns at the Wabash River IGCC Plant, Terre Haute, IN and the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC), Wilsonville, AL. The slipstream tests clearly showed that the actual coal gas constituents and potential contaminants (e.g. trace metals, halides, tars) had no effect on the sorbent’s ability to remove CO 2 (the same sorbent beds were used in both field tests with no sign of deactivation for 2,000 cycles with over 26,750 SCF of gas treated). As expected, due to the high temperature CO 2 removal capability and low energy needed to regenerate the sorbent, the power cycle efficiency with our process was greater than 34% on a higher heating value (HHV) basis; in comparison, the same IGCC plant equipped with the Selexol TM solvent for carbon capture can only achieve 31.4% HHV efficiency. The capital cost for an IGCC system with TDA’s process is estimated as $2,417/kW e , which is 12% lower than that of the IGCC/ Selexol TM process. The levelized cost for electricity including the transport, storage and monitoring (TS&M) cost for CO 2 was calculated as $\$ $92.9/MWh (lowest reported to our knowledge), which is much better than the $105.2/MWh estimated for the IGCC/ Selexol TM process. In this project (DE-FE0013105), TDA Research, in collaboration with our partners Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI), University of California, Irvine (UCI), University of Alberta (UOA), Siemens, NCCC and Sinopec advanced the technical maturity of the technology; scaling it up by a factor of 100. We optimized the reactor design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD); using adsorption modeling we improved the pressure swing adsorption (PSA) cycle sequence. We carried out two field test campaigns with a fully-equipped 0.1 MW e prototype unit (for a total of 844 hours) using actual synthesis gas to prove the viability of the new technology. A successful 30 day (707 hrs) evaluation was completed at NCCC under air blown gasification conditions. We demonstrated 97.3% carbon capture at 1,500 SLPM, 93% carbon capture at 1,800 SLPM, and 90% carbon capture at 2,100 SLPM in the NCCC tests. We also demonstrated the system for 137 hours at a Sinopec petrochemical plant under oxygen blown gasification, demonstrating 86% carbon capture at 2,660 SLPM. In collaboration with University of California, Irvine (UCI), we completed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) for TDA’s warm gas cleanup technology integrated to IGCC power plant. The net plant efficiencies (on a coal HHV basis) for the warm gas cleanup cases were estimated to be 34.0% for E-GasTM gasifier, 34.4% for GE gasifier, 33.4 for the Shell gasifier and 34.2 for the TRIG TM gasifier (Cases 2, 4, 6 and 8 in this study) with a catalytic combustor for CO 2 purification, which are significantly higher than those for the Cold Gas Case, or an increase of as much as 12% in the heat rate for Case 2, 6% for Case 4, 9% for Case 6, and 9% for Case 8. The 1st year cost of electricity with the transport, storage and monitoring (TS&M) costs for the CO 2 included was $\$ $129.2/MWh for the E-GasTM gasifier Warm Gas Cleanup Case, $\$ $131.9/MWh for the GE gasifier Warm Gas Cleanup Case, $\$ $146.8/MWh for the Shell Gasifier Warm Gas Cleanup Case, and $\$ $129.9/MWh for the TRIG TM gasifier Warm Gas Cleanup Case. For comparison, the costs for the baseline Cold Gas CO 2 removal with Selexol for the different gasifiers were: $\$ $146.6/MWh for the E-Gas TM gasifier, $\$ $142.2/MWh for the GE gasifier, $\$ $159.0/MWh for the Shell gasifier and $\$ $144.3/MWh for the TRIG TM gasifier. In summary, the costs for our system were 7 to 12% lower than the corresponding Cold Gas Cleanup cases. The results of this techno-economic analysis suggested that TDA’s high temperature PSA-based Warm Gas Clean-up Technology can make a substantial improvement in the IGCC plant thermal performance for achieving near zero CO 2 emissions for E-Gas TM , GE, Shell and TRIG TM gasifier based IGCC power plants. The capital expenses were estimated to be lower than that of Selexol’s™. Taken together, the higher net plant efficiency and lower capital and operating costs resulted in substantial reduction in the cost of carbon capture for the IGCC plant equipped with TDA’s high temperature PSA-based carbon capture system. Finally, in collaboration with Gas Technology Institute (GTI) we completed the environmental health and safety assessment for TDA’s warm gas carbon capture technology.
Hydropower represents a reliable source of renewable energy and accounts for approximately 7% of the total electrical generation in the United States. Future expansion of hydropower is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development projects or powering existing non-powered dams. For these new projects to be successful, careful analysis of risks, costs, and uncertainty to offset reduced power production as well as ensuring the protection and safe passage of migratory fish to gain public support, will be required. Exclusion and passage are two common approaches to protect fish from entrainment and impingement at hydropower facilities. The thresholds for entrainment risk and requirements for exclusion and passage often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders. While the costs associated with environmental mitigations represent a large proportion of the total costs required for the licensing of hydropower facilities, little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion and passage. Working with FOA awardee Natel Energy, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were tasked with assessing the capital construction costs for downstream fish exclusion and passage infrastructure. This report used keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction of additional cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening and passage from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 PM&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens, 142 pertaining to passage studies, and 26 pertaining to passage-related studies. PM&E measures associated with positive barrier screens represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with new stream development (NSD) projects. Results from these data indicate highly variable costs associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1 to 2 in.). Furthermore, estimated capital costs of passage infrastructure were positively related to the scale of the project based on installed capacity for some, but not all, types of passage. These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion and passage costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects. More data may still be available within the FERC eLibrary, but significant effort will be required to manually identify and extract the data for future analyses.
This project aims to develop and enhance a low-cost, highly scalable control solution for Small and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings (SMCB), assess the business potential at multiple sites, and perform commercialization efforts. The technology can be applied to any buildings served by multiple units, with the benefits being greatest for open-spaced buildings, such as banks, retail stores, restaurants, and factories. This project aims to develop an affordable control solution for: 1) SMCB grid responsiveness, 2) reduction of GHG by changing unit operations, 3) greater reduction in utility costs, and 4) rapid adoption in the marketplace. The proposed technology will be built on a previously developed and demonstrated MPC solution. The minimal sensor requirement and less need of control expertise are the unique feature of the algorithm that leads to low capital and maintenance costs, and short installation and implementation time. These attributes contribute to low capital and maintenance costs, as well as a short installation and implementation time. However, these advantages come with a trade-off: increased difficulties and unreliability when applying traditional modeling and MPC control approaches due to limited information. This final report describes the modeling approaches developed and tested to overcome these challenges. It begins by outlining the modeling challenge posed by minimal sensor requirements, then delves into the proposed modeling approaches, which primarily involve system identification. Finally, preliminary test results for a simulation case study are presented.