Modeling Solid Phase Kinetics for Burning Live Vegetative Fuels
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fire, wildfire, wildland fire, numerical models, c↗
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Results for “burn model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A model for radiative heating of a high-Z pusher
Several approaches to Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), including double-shell, pushered-single-shell, and the Revolver designs, have fuel surrounded by pushers made from high-Z materials. An advantage of these designs is that radiation emitted by the hot fuel will be absorbed and re-radiated into the fuel to reduce cooling. This process is referred to as radiation-trapping, and it lowers the fuel temperature required for ignition. To elucidate the physics of radiation trapping, a simplified model comprising a set of coupled differential equations has been developed to model the arbitrary time-dependent wall temperature from the Hammer and Rosen solution [J. H. Hammer and M. D. Rosen, Phys. Plasmas 10, 1829 (2003)] to a Marshak wave. The derivation of the model and a set of analytical power-law solutions will be presented. A discussion on numerical implementation of the differential equations into a model for burn in ICF capsules is also included.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Neutral Beams for the Burning Plasma Era: Simulations and Modeling of Deuterium Ion Beams for Plasma Heating
Together with Realta Fusion we developed advanced simulations using WarpX for magnetic confinement fusion devices and advanced neutral beam systems for plasma heating.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Neutral beams for the burning plasma era: Simulations and modeling of deuterium ion beams for plasma heating (CRADA Final Report)
Together with Realta Fusion, we set up several simulation scenarios and ran simulations using the WarpX code which is developed by LBNL and especially by members of the LBNL team. We investigated beam transport and beam neutralization and ran optimization and benchmark simulations. To achieve this, several new features were added to the warpX code. These code additions will also be beneficial to other users of warpX including several fusion companies and researchers at National Laboratories. Furthermore, we supported Realta Fusion in setting up their own instances of WarpX. We presented our results at the American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics meeting and are in the process of writing a publication that will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal to share our results with the broader community.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Biomass burning aerosols in most climate models are too absorbing
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The drivers and predictability of wildfire re-burns in the western United States (US)
Evidence is mounting that the effectiveness of using prescribed burns as a management tactic may be diminishing due to the higher incidence of wildfire re-burns. The development of predictive models of re-burns is thus essential to better understand their primary drivers so that forest management practices can be updated to account for these events. First, we assess the potential for human activity as a driver of re-burns by evaluating re-burn trends both within and outside of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western US. Next, we investigate the predictability of re-burns through the application of both random forest and the explanatory machine learning non-negative matrix factorization using k-means clustering (NMFk) algorithms to predict re-burn occurrence over California based on a number of climate factors. Our findings indicate that while most states showed increasing trends within the WUI when trends were conducted over longer moving windows (e.g. 20 years), California was the only state where the rate of increase was consistently higher in the WUI, indicating a stronger potential for human activity as a driver in that location. Furthermore, we find model performance was found to be robust over most of California (Testing F1 scores = 0.688), although results were highly variable based on EPA level III Ecoregion (F1 scores = 0.0–0.778). Insights provided from this study will lead to a better understanding of climate and human activity drivers of re-burns and how these vary at broad spatial scales so that improvements in forest management practices can be tuned according to the level of change that is expected for a given region.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Divertor-safe nonlinear burn control based on a SOLPS parameterized core-edge model for ITER
Abstract For ITER operations, the range of desirable burning-plasma regimes with high fusion power output will be restricted by various operational constraints. These constraints include the saturation of ITER’s various heating and fueling actuators such as the neutral beam injectors, the ion and electron cyclotron heating systems, the gas puffing system, and the deuterium–tritium pellet injectors. In addition to these actuator constraints, the H-mode power threshold, divertor detachment, and the heat load on the divertor targets may apply limitations to ITER’s operational space. In this work, Plasma Operation Contour (POPCON) plots that map the aforementioned constraints to the temperature-density space are used to investigate which constraints are most limiting towards accessing regimes with high fusion power output. The presented POPCON plots are based on a control-oriented core-edge model that couples the nonlinear density and energy response models for the core-plasma region with SOLPS4.3 parameterizations for conditions in the edge-plasma regions (scrape-off-layer and divertor). Using this control-oriented core-edge model, a nonlinear burn controller, which aims to regulate the plasma temperature and density in the core-plasma region, is constructed in this work. This controller is augmented with an online optimization scheme that governs the control references such that the plasma can be guided towards regimes with high fusion powers while protecting the divertor targets from dangerously high heat loads. A closed-loop simulation study illustrates the capability of this burn control scheme.
Physics↗
Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation
Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Deflagration to Detonation Transition Update: XDDT Code Modularization
A legacy FORTRAN 77 implementation of the Baer–Nunziato two-phase mixture theory for deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in reactive granular materials—hereafter the XDDT (eXplosive DDT) code—has been modularized to Fortran 90 with modular structure, external input files, and adaptive mesh capability. During validation, two code defects were identified and corrected: an inconsistency in the nodal solid pressure evaluation and a nonphysical burn-front tracking criterion. The ignition criterion was also corrected to use the granular surface temperature from the interface heat transfer model, matching the original Baer implementation. An initial attempt to validate against Figure 3 of the original Baer and Nunziato (1986) paper revealed that the code’s detonation velocity on a 201-node mesh (5.5 km/s) was approximately 21% below the expected Chapman–Jouguet value for 70% TMD HMX (∼7 km/s). Validation was redirected to the piston-driven DDT experiments of McAfee et al. (1989), Shot B-9036, for which well-characterized ionization-pin data are available. With the compaction-burn coefficient calibrated to 𝐶 𝛼 = 75, the XDDT code reproduces the DDT transition time to within 0.4% and produces a steady-state detonation velocity within 4% of the McAfee experimental value of 6.36 km/s. The burn model was generalized to support pressure-dependent exponents, enabling application to nitrocellulose-based ball propellants (TS3659) with a cube-root pressure dependence. Validation against the Sandusky/Baer PDC82 piston-impact experiment yielded a reactive wave velocity of 2.3–2.8 km/s, in good agreement with the experimental value of ∼2.2 km/s, and wave coalescence within 5% of the experimental timing. The mathematical model, input parameter requirements, and a roadmap for extending XDDT to PETN with an autocatalytic burn model are presented.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Validation of energetic particle transport models for time-dependent integrated simulations of burning plasmas (Final ST Report)
The major goal of this project is to deliver a suite of validated energetic particle (EP) modeling tools for time-dependent integrated tokamak simulations (with the code TRANSP) that can be used for modeling plasma discharges featuring a substantial EP content, such as burning plasmas. During FY20, issues were resolved with an energetic particle transport model called TGLF-EP, with improvements made to the TGLF-EP workflow, generation of input files, and interpretation of runs on the NERSC supercomputing cluster. The recipient also gave input on simulations with the code TRANSP to reproduce the reference JET discharge, and assessed the accuracy and uncertainties of the simulated B field, current evolution, thermal plasma profiles, stored energy, etc. Input was also given on interpretation of fast-ion instability calculations and recommendations for modifications to JET afterglow discharge for the upcoming DT campaign.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Automated power-following control for nuclear thermal propulsion startup and shutdown using MOOSE-based applications
This paper describes an investigation of various automated control strategies applied to a full-core multiphysics Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 model of a prototypical nuclear thermal propulsion system. In all cases, control is achieved by actuating control drums based on the demanded power and predicted quantities from the numerical model. One key finding is that hybrid proportional integral derivative controllers – a novel type of controller that uses both power and reactivity predicted signals – can demonstrate a level of performance rivaling that of period-generated control. The former requires parameter tuning, while the latter mostly necessitates providing reactivity coefficients and temperature rates of change, which could be very challenging to accurately measure in real-time. In addition, decay heat plays an important role in determining cooling requirements during cooldown phases. A decay heat model, accounting for burn time and throttling, was derived, and is incorporated within the model to simulate the steady-state and shutdown phases and satisfyingly follow the power demand. However, temperature overshoots and non-constant specific impulse during throttling will necessitate further improvements.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Nonlinear gyrokinetic predictions of SPARC burning plasma profiles enabled by surrogate modeling
Multi-channel, nonlinear predictions of core temperature and density profiles are performed for the SPARC tokamak accounting for both kinetic neoclassical and fully nonlinear gyro-kinetic turbulent fluxes. A series of flux-tube, nonlinear, electromagnetic simulations using the CGYRO code with six gyrokinetic species are coupled to a nonlinear optimizer using Gaussian process regression techniques. The simultaneous evolution of energy sources, including alpha heat, radiation, and energy exchange, coupled with these high fidelity models and techniques, leads to a converged solution in electron temperature, ion temperature and electron density channels with a minimal number of expensive gyrokinetic simulations without compromising accuracy.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
The response of the Amazon ecosystem to the photosynthetically active radiation fields: integrating impacts of biomass burning aerosol and clouds in the NASA GEOS Earth system model
The Amazon experiences fires every year, and the resulting biomass burning aerosols, together with cloud particles, influence the penetration of sunlight through the atmosphere, increasing the ratio of diffuse to direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaching the vegetation canopy and thereby potentially increasing ecosystem productivity. In this study, we use the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with coupled aerosol, cloud, radiation, and ecosystem modules to investigate the impact of Amazon biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity, as well as the role of the Amazon's clouds in tempering this impact. The study focuses on a 7-year period (2010–2016) during which the Amazon experienced a variety of dynamic environments (e.g., La Niña, normal years, and El Niño). The direct radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity – called here the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect – is found to increase Amazonian gross primary production (GPP) by 2.6 % via a 3.8 % increase in diffuse PAR (DFPAR) despite a 5.4 % decrease in direct PAR (DRPAR) on multiyear average during burning seasons. On a monthly basis, this increase in GPP can be as large as 9.9 % (occurring in August 2010). Consequently, the net primary production (NPP) in the Amazon is increased by 1.5 %, or ~92 Tg C yr -1 – equivalent to ~37 % of the average carbon lost due to Amazon fires over the 7 years considered. Clouds, however, strongly regulate the effectiveness of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect. The efficiency of this fertilization effect is the highest in cloud-free conditions and linearly decreases with increasing cloud amount until the cloud fraction reaches ~0.8, at which point the aerosol-influenced light changes from being a stimulator to an inhibitor of plant growth. Nevertheless, interannual changes in the overall strength of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect are primarily controlled by the large interannual changes in biomass burning aerosols rather than by changes in cloudiness during the studied period.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
How do soil microbes shape ecosystem biogeochemistry in the context of global change?
Earth system models disagree on the future of global soil carbon C, with projections ranging from losses of 70 Pg to gains of 250 Pg by the year 2100 (Todd-Brown et al., 2014). This disagreement is due, in part, to the high degree of uncertainty in the mechanisms that control soil C, the largest dynamic pool of organic C on Earth. It remains unclear how climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and other environmental changes will combine to affect global soil C. As key engineers of biogeochemical cycling, microbes play a crucial role in soil C responses to these environmental changes. Yet, the path toward representing microbes in soil models remains uncertain. Furthermore, we address four burning questions relevant for modelling microbial ecological, evolutionary, and biogeochemical processes in soils: (1) What is the role of soil microbes in biogeochemical cycling? (2) Does microbial community composition matter for soil carbon cycling? (3) Which ecological and evolutionary processes contribute to functional changes? (4) How should we model microbial eco-evolutionary mechanisms in soil C models?
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
High-Resolution Frequency-Domain Spectroscopic and Modeling Studies of Photosystem I (PSI), PSI Mutants and PSI Supercomplexes
Photosystem I (PSI) is one of the two main pigment–protein complexes where the primary steps of oxygenic photosynthesis take place. This review describes low-temperature frequency-domain experiments (absorption, emission, circular dichroism, resonant and non-resonant hole-burned spectra) and modeling efforts reported for PSI in recent years. In particular, we focus on the spectral hole-burning studies, which are not as common in photosynthesis research as the time-domain spectroscopies. Experimental and modeling data obtained for trimeric cyanobacterial Photosystem I (PSI 3 ), PSI 3 mutants, and PSI 3 –IsiA 18 supercomplexes are analyzed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of their excitonic structure and excitation energy transfer (EET) processes. Detailed information on the excitonic structure of photosynthetic complexes is essential to determine the structure–function relationship. We will focus on the so-called “red antenna states” of cyanobacterial PSI, as these states play an important role in photochemical processes and EET pathways. The high-resolution data and modeling studies presented here provide additional information on the energetics of the lowest energy states and their chlorophyll (Chl) compositions, as well as the EET pathways and how they are altered by mutations. We present evidence that the low-energy traps observed in PSI are excitonically coupled states with significant charge-transfer (CT) character. The analysis presented for various optical spectra of PSI 3 and PSI 3 -IsiA 18 supercomplexes allowed us to make inferences about EET from the IsiA 18 ring to the PSI 3 core and demonstrate that the number of entry points varies between sample preparations studied by different groups. In our most recent samples, there most likely are three entry points for EET from the IsiA 18 ring per the PSI core monomer, with two of these entry points likely being located next to each other. Therefore, there are nine entry points from the IsiA 18 ring to the PSI 3 trimer. We anticipate that the data discussed below will stimulate further research in this area, providing even more insight into the structure-based models of these important cyanobacterial photosystems.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories
We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗