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DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Lateral Flow on Surface Water and Energy Budgets over the Southern Great Plains – A Modeling Study

As we see the horizontal grid spacing decrease, treatment of hydrologic processes in land surface models, such as the lateral flow of surface and subsurface flow, need to be explicitly represented. Unlike previous studies that mainly focused on the mountainous regions, in this study the offline WRF-Hydro model is employed to study the impact of lateral flow on soil moisture and energy fluxes over the relatively flat southern Great Plains (SGP). The vast amount of measurements over the SGP provide an unique opportunity to assess the model behavior. In addition, newly developed land surface properties and input forcing are ingested into the model, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties associated with the initial and boundary forcing and help to identify model deficiencies. Our results show that the more realistic inputs (parameters, soil types, forcing) lead to larger underestimation of latent heat flux and dry bias, indicating the existence of model structural uncertainty (embedded errors) in WRF-Hydro that need to be characterized to inform future model development efforts. Including lateral flow processes partly mitigates the model deficiencies in representing hydrologic processes and alleviates the dry bias. In particular, both surface and subsurface lateral flow increase soil moisture mainly over the lower elevations, except that subsurface flow also affects soil moisture over steeper terrains. Additional simulations are performed to assess the effect of routing resolution on model results. When LSM resolution is high, noticeable differences in soil moisture are produced between different routing resolutions especially over steep terrain. Whereas when LSM resolution is coarse, differences between routing resolutions become negligible, especially over flat terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.4.0

HyRAM+ is a software toolkit for conducting quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and consequence modeling for hydrogen and other alternative fuels infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ contains validated, simplified release behavior models, a standardized QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data relevant to hydrogen installations. HyRAM (hydrogen-only) versions 1.0 to 3.1 were developed by Sandia for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO). The U.S. DOE Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) contributed to the development of HyRAM+ version 4.0 regarding the addition of methane (natural gas) and propane models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-10862 O

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2022

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.4.1.1

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2024

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.5.1.1

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2024

Path-BigBird: An AI-Driven Transformer Approach to Classification of Cancer Pathology Reports

PURPOSE Surgical pathology reports are critical for cancer diagnosis and management. To accurately extract information about tumor characteristics from pathology reports in near real time, we explore the impact of using domain-specific transformer models that understand cancer pathology reports. METHODS We built a pathology transformer model, Path-BigBird, by using 2.7 million pathology reports from six SEER cancer registries. We then compare different variations of Path-BigBird with two less computationally intensive methods: Hierarchical Self-Attention Network (HiSAN) classification model and an offthe-shelf clinical transformer model (Clinical BigBird). We use five pathology information extraction tasks for evaluation: site, subsite, laterality, histology, and behavior. Model performance is evaluated by using macro and micro F 1 scores. RESULTS We found that Path-BigBird and Clinical BigBird outperformed the HiSAN in all tasks. Clinical BigBird performed better on the site and laterality tasks. Versions of the Path-BigBird model performed best on the two most difficult tasks: subsite (micro F 1 score of 72.53, macro F 1 score of 35.76) and histology (micro F 1 score of 80.96, macro F 1 score of 37.94). The largest performance gains over the HiSAN model were for histology, for which a Path-BigBird model increased the micro F 1 score by 1.44 points and the macro F 1 score by 3.55 points. Overall, the results suggest that a Path-BigBird model with a vocabulary derived from wellcurated and deidentified data is the best-performing model. CONCLUSION The Path-BigBird pathology transformer model improves automated information extraction from pathology reports. Although Path-BigBird outperforms Clinical BigBird and HiSAN, these less computationally expensive models still have utility when resources are constrained.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

MSD CoP Webinar: "Generative agents: A new frontier for representing human actors and their behavior in MSD models"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.6.1

SAND2025-11565O HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) is a tool for conducting quantitative risk assessment (QRA) in transportation systems. HyRAM+ contains validated, simplified release behavior models, engineering models, and generic data relevant to hydrogen installations. HyRAM+’s platform integrates models and data to conduct QRA on user-defined hydrogen or other alternative fuel systems. The software will enable the international safety research community to add validated models to the HyRAM+ platform for use in QRAs. HyRAM (hydrogen-only) versions 1.0 to 3.1 were developed by Sandia for the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office. The following agencies contributed to the development of HyRAM+ version 4.0 regarding the addition of methane (natural gas) and propane models: the DOE Vehicle Technologies Office and the Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Alb↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated Membership Inference Attacks: Discovering MIA Signal Computations using LLM Agents

Membership inference attacks (MIAs), which enable adversaries to determine whether specific data points were part of a model's training dataset, have emerged as an important framework to understand, assess, and quantify the potential information leakage associated with machine learning systems. Designing effective MIAs is a challenging task that usually requires extensive manual exploration of model behaviors to identify potential vulnerabilities. In this paper, we introduce AutoMIA -- a novel framework that leverages large language model (LLM) agents to automate the design and implementation of new MIA signal computations. By utilizing LLM agents, we can systematically explore a vast space of potential attack strategies, enabling the discovery of novel strategies. Our experiments demonstrate AutoMIA can successfully discover new MIAs that are specifically tailored to user-configured target model and dataset, resulting in improvements of up to 0.18 in absolute AUC over existing MIAs. This work provides the first demonstration that LLM agents can serve as an effective and scalable paradigm for designing and implementing MIAs with SOTA performance, opening up new avenues for future exploration.

Tran, Toan Viet [Emory University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Questionnaire for Radioisotope Identification and Estimation from Gamma Spectra using PyRIID v2

Accurate targeting of radioisotope classifiers and estimators requires an understanding of the target problem space. In order to facilitate clear communication on expected model behavior and performance between practitioners and stakeholders on their problems, this questionnaire was created. Stakeholder responses form the basis of a trained model as well as the start of usage requirements for the model as it is integrated with analysis processes or detection systems. This questionnaire may also be useful to machine learning practitioners and gamma spectroscopists developing new algorithms as a starting point for characterizing their problem space, especially if they are using PyRIID.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

ASME Code Development - Nonmetallics

ASME Code Development - Nonmetallics slides to include behavior models, licensing & code, graphite R&D Program, As-Fab'd Properties, Mechanisms and Analysis, and Irradiation. Discussion on where these fit into Irradiation behavior, Ceramic Composites, Design, and Component Failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An international review of occupant-related aspects of building energy codes and standards

In light of recent research, it is evident that occupants are playing an increasingly important role in building energy performance. Furthermore, despite the important role of building energy codes and standards in design, the occupant-related aspects are typically simple and have not kept up with the leading research. This paper reviews 23 regions’ building energy codes and standards by first comparing their quantitative aspects and then analyzing their mandated rules and approaches. While the present paper focuses on offices, general recommendations are applicable to other building types as well. The review revealed a wide range of occupant-related values, approaches, and attitudes. For example, code-specified occupant density varies by nearly a factor of three between different codes. This underlines the need for development of advancement in occupant behavior modeling approaches for future occupant-centric building performance codes and standards. Moreover, occupants are often referred to only implicitly; underlying expectations about energy-saving occupant behavior from building occupants varies greatly; and, only a few codes address occupant feedback and system usability. Based on the findings of the review, a set of initial recommendations for future building energy codes is proposed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Characteristics of Wildfire Towers and Troughs

Wildfire behavior is dictated by the complex interaction of numerous physical phenomena including dynamic ambient and fire-induced winds, heat transfer, aerodynamic drag on the wind by the fuel and combustion. These phenomena create complex feedback effects between the fire and its surroundings. In this study, we aim to study the mechanisms by which buoyant flame dynamics along with vortical motions and instabilities control wildfire propagation. Specifically, this study employs a suite of simulations conducted with the physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere behavior model (FIRETEC). The simulations are initialized with a fire line and the fires are allowed to propagate on a grass bed, where the fuel heights and wind conditions are varied systematically. Flow variables are extracted to identify the characteristics of the alternating counter-rotational vortices, called towers and troughs, that drive convective heat transfer and fire spread. These vortices have previously been observed in wildfires and laboratory fires, and have also been observed to arise spontaneously in FIRETEC due to the fundamental physics incorporated in the model. However, these past observations have been qualitative in nature and no quantitative studies can be found in the literature which connected these coherent structures fundamental to fire behavior with the constitutive flow variables. To that end, a variety of state variables are examined in the context of these coherent structures under various wind profile and grass height conditions. Identification of various correlated signatures and fire-atmosphere feedbacks in simulations provides a hypothesis that can be tested in future observational or experimental efforts, potentially assisting experimental design, and can aid in the interpretation of data from in situ detectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

From observation to replication: machine-learning-driven quantification and replication of fine-scale fish kinematics and behavior

Long-term quantification of fish behavior is essential for aquatic ecology, wildlife telemetry, and biomechanical device development. However, the observation duration required to obtain reliable behavioral and kinematic metrics remains unclear, and few tools exist to physically reproduce natural swimming motion for controlled experimentation. We address these challenges by developing a generalizable framework that models behavioral reliability (Spearman–Brown reliability index) as a function of observation duration and derives metric-specific monitoring thresholds. Using juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) as a case study, we demonstrate that the minimum duration needed for reliable estimates varies substantially across kinematic features: to exceed a reliability of 0.8, total distance traveled requires 12 days, average curvature (mm?¹) 15 days, tail-beat frequency (Hz) 8 days, and average speed (body length/s) 17 days. We further bridge digital analysis and physical testing by developing a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that reconstructs machine-learning-derived swimming kinematics with high fidelity (correlation coefficient 0.98–0.99, RMSE 1.22–1.27 mm over a 5-minute segment). This platform enables realistic, repeatable motion stimuli for evaluating aquatic sensing technologies and bio-integrated devices under controlled conditions. Together, these contributions provide a scalable approach for designing long-term behavioral studies and a data-driven connection between ecological observation and robotic experimentation.

Hwang, SungJoo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Tropical Precipitation Relations in CMIP6 Models with ARM Data

Abstract A set of diagnostics based on simple, statistical relationships between precipitation and the thermodynamic environment in observations is implemented to assess phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model behavior with respect to precipitation. Observational data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) permanent field observational sites are augmented with satellite observations of precipitation and temperature as an observational baseline. A robust relationship across observational datasets between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, in which conditionally averaged precipitation exhibits a sharp pickup at some critical CWV value, provides a useful convective onset diagnostic for climate model comparison. While a few models reproduce an appropriate precipitation pickup, most models begin their pickup at too low CWV and the increase in precipitation with increasing CWV is too weak. Convective transition statistics compiled in column relative humidity (CRH) partially compensate for model temperature biases—although imperfectly since the temperature dependence is more complex than that of column saturation. Significant errors remain in individual models and weak pickups are generally not improved. The conditional-average precipitation as a function of CRH can be decomposed into the product of the probability of raining and mean precipitation during raining times (conditional intensity). The pickup behavior is primarily dependent on the probability of raining near the transition and on the conditional intensity at higher CRH. Most models roughly capture the CRH dependence of these two factors. However, compensating biases often occur: model conditional intensity that is too low at a given CRH is compensated in part by excessive probability of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗