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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of the dense-matter equation of state encapsulating a first-order hadron-quark phase transition from observables of canonical neutron stars

The remarkable progress in recent multimessenger observations of both isolated neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers has provided some of the much needed data to improve our understanding about the equation of state (EOS) of dense neutron-rich matter. Various EOSs with or without some kinds of phase transitions from hadronic to quark matter (QM) have been widely used in many forward modelings of NS properties. Direct comparisons of these predictions with observational data sometimes also using χ 2 minimizations have provided very useful constraints on the model EOSs. Furthermore, it is normally difficult to perform uncertain quantifications and analyze correlations of the EOS model parameters involved in forward modelings especially when the available data are still very limited.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Applying Bayesian inference and deterministic anisotropy to retrieve the molecular structure ∣Ψ(R)∣2 distribution from gas-phase diffraction experiments

Abstract Currently, our general approach to retrieving molecular structures from ultrafast gas-phase diffraction heavily relies on complex ab initio electronic or vibrational excited state simulations to make conclusive interpretations. Without such simulations, inverting this measurement for the structural probability distribution is typically intractable. This creates a so-called inverse problem. Here we address this inverse problem by developing a broadly applicable method that approximates the molecular frame structure ∣Ψ( R , t )∣ 2 distribution independent of these complex simulations. We retrieve the vibronic ground state ∣Ψ( R )∣ 2 for both simulated stretched NO 2 and measured N 2 O. From measured N 2 O, we observe 40 mÅ coordinate-space resolution from 3.75 Å −1 reciprocal space range and poor signal-to-noise, a 50X improvement over traditional Fourier transform methods. In simulated NO 2 diffraction experiments, typical to high signal-to-noise levels predict 100–1000X resolution improvements, down to 0.1 mÅ. By directly measuring the width of ∣Ψ( R )∣ 2 , we open ultrafast gas-phase diffraction capabilities to measurements beyond current analysis approaches. This method has the potential to effectively turn gas-phase ultrafast diffraction into a discovery-oriented technique to probe systems that are prohibitively difficult to simulate.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

General Bayesian Inference over the Stiefel Manifold via the Givens Transform

We introduce here an approach based on the Givens representation for posterior inference in statistical models with orthogonal matrix parameters, such as factor models and probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). We show how the Givens representation can be used to develop practical methods for transforming densities over the Stiefel manifold into densities over subsets of Euclidean space. We demonstrate how to deal with issues arising from the topology of the Stiefel manifold and how to inexpensively compute the change-of-measure terms. We introduce an auxiliary parameter approach that limits the impact of topological issues. We provide both analysis of our methods and numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach. We also discuss how our Givens representation can be used to define general classes of distributions over the space of orthogonal matrices. We then give demonstrations on several examples showing how the Givens approach performs in practice in comparison with other methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗