Rapidly Deployable Hardware and Software Network for Wave Energy Site Characterization and Monitoring
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16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
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Ensemble Manufacturing Techniques for Steam Turbine Components Across Length Scales
Faster design to manufacturing requirements were sought for steam turbine components to meet the changing demands of today’s power grid of improved efficiency through operating temperature increases and enhanced operational flexibility from baseload to cyclic operations. Advances in multiple advanced manufacturing (AM) process enabled redesign of turbine components for extreme environments with the potential to reduce cost. AM is of particular interest to improve component functionality, higher temperature capability, and superior durability in large scale steam turbine applications. AM methods have an immense potential to open-up the design space by working directly with the 3D model to produce near-net shapes, enable fast design-manufacturing iterations, thereby significantly reducing product cost and lead-time up to 25 % from current baseline. However, these benefits cannot be fully realized due to the potential for unknown AM processing defects and their resultant effect upon component performance in service. Siemens is partnering with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology (CCAT) to advance the knowledge of complex process-material interactions for desired microstructures and properties that are closely interlinked to component geometries across different length scales. The proposed program utilized an ensemble of multidisciplinary technologies to accelerate the development of materials, high-throughput experiments for their qualification, and design flexibility/topology optimization for repair/redesign of components to address critical failure mechanisms for improved performance and increased reliability of existing power plant components. The proposed activities, if successfully demonstrated for identified components, will enable paradigm shift in customized manufacturing and accelerated qualification/certification towards increased steam turbine component durability, increased turbine efficiency, and reduced CO 2 emissions in load-following environments compared to today’s technology. Technology maturation is built into the project as successful research will include customized process-component down-selection enabling AM methodologies to be incorporated directly into the existing supply chain. The specific activities of the proposed effort are: 1. Topology optimization of down-selected steam turbine parts that are amenable to additive and hybrid manufacturing for cost/performance improvement. 2. Process-structure-property relationships for five AM processes for steam turbine materials of interest to compare with conventional materials. 3. Perform part/assembly build process using advanced additive/hybrid machine tools followed by quality inspection of the built components for insight into qualification for production scale-up. Steam turbine rig testing of printed components under targeted, well monitored and characterized environmental conditions of for performance comparison of baseline and redesigned components.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Characterization of Safeguards Implementation Schedules for Advanced Reactors
Advanced reactor designs differ from the traditional light-water reactor designs and operational requirements in nearly every facet, including the heat transfer fluids, operating temperatures and pressures, and fuel cycle requirements. To account for these differences, significant effort will be required to ensure appropriate safeguards implementation for US-based reactors intended for global deployment. This is the second in a series of three reports that examine facets of this issue. The first paper (ORNL/TM-2021/2142) examines potential construction schedules for advanced reactors to create a baseline understanding of the timeframes involved. This second report characterizes International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards implementation schedules for potential advanced reactors. Finally, the third report (ORNL/TM-2021/2208) examines existing gaps for safeguards implementation at advanced reactors.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Characterization of the X-ARAPUCA Systems' Response for SBND's Light Detection
X-ARAPUCA waveform data, collected at a test stand at the Noble Liquid Test Facility (NLTF) and the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND), were analyzed via python scripts. For the ARARA system, various distributions and correlations were studied, including the area and amplitude distributions of the waveform peaks for identifying single photoelectron peaks, as well as characterizing the behavior of the baseline artifact. The ARARA system is being studied in order to be implemented into SBND, just as the APSAIA X-ARAPUCAs have been.
Novotny, Andrew [U. Illinois, Chicago]↗
Development of a Novel Magnesium Alloy for Thixomolding® of Automotive Components (Final Report)
Magnesium (Mg) alloy die-castings are increasingly used in the automobile industry to achieve cost effective mass reduction, especially in systems where multiple components can be integrated into a single thin wall die-casting. However, there are several component quality restrictions in thin-walled Mg die castings, including variability in dimensional accuracy, part-to-part variation in mechanical properties, and porosity in the final part, which has limited the continued growth of die-cast components in the automobile industry. An alternative to die-casting is the process of thixomolding®. While the die-casting process relies on filling a mold at high speeds with the alloy in the completely molten state, the thixomolding® process fills a mold with a thixotropic alloy in a semi-solid slurry state at a temperature between the liquidus and solidus temperatures. Ideally, the material should be ~30–65% solid rather than being completely liquid at the beginning of the injection process. Advantages of the thixomolding® process include a finer grain structure, lower porosity, improved dimensional accuracy, improved part-to part consistency, improved mechanical properties, particularly ductility in the component, the ability to reduce wall thickness for mass savings, and longer tool life due to lower process temperatures. The objective of this collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory, FCA US LLC, and Leggera Technologies was to develop one or more novel Mg alloys more suitable for thixomolding® automotive structural components than the current die-casting alloys used for this process. The primary interest was to improve ductility while maintaining tensile and fatigue strengths, as these are properties that are critical for use in body and chassis structural applications. Since good corrosion resistance is also desirable for this application, this property was also considered when evaluating promising alloy compositions. An initial evaluation of existing components thixomolded® using AM60 was performed and microstructure, and tensile properties were evaluated for the baseline alloy. Targets were established for ease of processing (characterized by the melting range defined as the difference between the liquidus and the solidus), strength, and ductility. Computational modeling was used to identify promising alloys and selected alloys were cast in laboratory scale heats. Properties measured from laboratory scale heats were used to down-select two alloys for further evaluation and component fabrication. Two alloys were prepared in industrial scale heats, cut into small pieces (chips), and thixomolding® trials were initiated. Trial components were successfully fabricated using one alloy composition, but it was concluded that further refinement of the thixomolding® process parameters are required to successfully fabricate component using second alloy. Microstructure and mechanical properties were evaluated on the material removed from the fabricated component and properties were compared to the baseline alloy. Although mechanical properties of the alloys showed improvement over the baseline alloy, it was determined that modifications to the thixomolding® process would result in better microstructure control with further improvement in properties leading to successful commercialization. A provisional patent application has already been filed on the new alloys developed as part of the project.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Voucher Opportunity 5-15: Independent Assessment of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Technologies and Practices for Enhanced Rock Weathering (CRADA 718) Abstract
Development of robust, transparent, and precise monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) technologies and practices is critical for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) project developers to comply with regulatory and permitting requirements, voluntary carbon market (VCM) protocols, and to ensure safety while reducing environmental impacts. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW)-based CDR technologies focus on removing atmospheric carbon through conversion into thermodynamically stable solid or aqueous carbonate forms for permanent storage (i.e., mineralization). This highly durable form of CDR enhances naturally occurring silicate rock weathering cycles by optimizing application of finely-ground silicate rock particles (i.e., from basalt) on terrestrial agricultural lands to accelerate natural silicate rock weathering and mineralization. Enhanced rock weathering may also provide improved crop yields and enhance soil health. A critical aspect for commercialization of these technologies is the development of MRV to quantify the net removal and durable storage of atmospheric CO 2 . For ERW systems, it is essential to accurately characterize the mineral feedstock selected for application to establish the baseline geochemical composition, mineral dissolution rates, and carbon removal potential of the feedstocks to estimate overall net removal. Given the difficulty with conducting MRV for ERW in diverse soil/environment types, over large application areas, and due to complex chemical reaction networks, this project will accelerate understanding towards consensus on best practices for MRV. The overall objectives of the proposed voucher project are to: 1) Characterize and analyze feedstock(s) intended for ERW field application by Lithos Carbon (“Voucher Recipient”/ “CRADA Participant”) to determine overall mineralization potential; 2) Facilitate knowledge transfer and documentation of experimental protocols, instrumentation, and other relevant best practices; and 3) Support the Voucher Recipient’s broader technology commercialization and ERW Research Facility development plans. This work will align with the Voucher Recipient’s MRV plans for field sites and build upon complementary efforts conducted by PNNL on mineralization MRV.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Accuracy of hourly energy predictions for demand flexibility applications
Decarbonization goals in the United States electricity sector are increasing the levels of renewable energy generation in the electricity supply system, and are driving increased attention to building electrification, which will increase the magnitude and shift the timing of the electricity system peak. These changes are motivating new approaches to coordinate building electricity demand with low-carbon renewable generation, elevating the importance of demand flexibility (DF) in buildings and the need to quantify the temporal impacts of DF. In this paper, we first characterize the hourly predictive accuracy of six commonly used baseline models in an application context of quantifying building-level load shift. Our analysis revealed insights such as hours of the day (afternoons), periods of the week (weekends), and seasons (summer) that were predicted with more accuracy than other time periods. In addition, the analysis showed tendencies toward overprediction or underprediction of load. Secondly, we provide the first published investigation of baseline erosion from repeated dispatch of building load shifting. We observed that as the baseline period is pushed back further from the prediction day, the distribution of errors across baseline model predictions increases, with notable inflection points near the three-week erosion point for two of the three models.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Accelerated Aging and Evaluation of Hose-In-Hose Transfer Lines in the Hanford Waste Transfer System - 20312
Nonmetallic materials are used in the United States Department of Energy's Hanford Site Tank Farm waste transfer system. These materials include the inner primary hoses in the hose-in-hose transfer lines (HIHTLs), Garlock{sup R} gaskets, ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) O-rings, and other nonmetallic materials. These nonmetallic materials are exposed to β and γ radiation, caustic solutions as well as high temperature and pressure stressors. How the nonmetallic components react to each of these stressors individually has been well established. However, simultaneous exposure of these stressors has not been evaluated and is of great concern to Hanford Site engineers. Florida International University's Applied Research Center engineers worked closely with key Hanford's Washington River Protection Solutions personnel to develop an experimental test plan that determines how these nonmetallic components react to various simultaneous stressor exposures. In this paper, research on the experimental testing of the hose-in-hose transfer lines used in the Hanford tank farm waste transfer system under simultaneous stressor exposures is presented. The stressor exposure experiments consisted of various combinations of simultaneous stressor exposure of caustic solution, high temperature and high pressure stressors. Research efforts focused on evaluating the aging behavior of EPDM by exposing samples of HIHTLs as well as EPDM dog bone shaped specimens to a 25% NaOH solution at (38 deg. C), operating (54 deg. C) and design temperatures (77 deg. C) for 6 months and 12 months. In addition, HIHTL and the EPDM dog-bone specimens were exposed to only hot water at 77 deg. C for a duration of one year. The mechanical and material properties of the samples were characterized and compared with those of the unexposed samples (baseline). Evaluations included burst pressure tests of the EPDM hose-in-hose transfer lines and material tensile strength test of EPDM dog-bone coupons. Both the tensile strength of the EPDM material dog bones and the burst pressure of the HIHTLs significantly decreased with the increasing temperature and increasing exposure time. When compared with the baseline samples, the burst pressure decreased by 28.75% for the sample aged at 77 deg. C after 12 months, in comparison to sample aged at 38 deg. C and 54 deg. C which had about 1.34% and 5.70% loss in burst pressures, respectively, after 12-month exposure. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
A LENS on DUNE-PRISM: Characterizing a Neutrino Beam with Off-Axis Measurements
Upcoming precision long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments will be severely limited by the large systematic uncertainties associated with neutrino flux predictions and neutrino--nucleus cross sections. A promising remedy is the PRISM (Precision Reaction Independent Spectrum Measurement) technique, whereby the near detector measures the neutrino spectrum at different angles with respect to the beam axis. These measurements are then linearly combined into a prediction of the oscillated neutrino flux at the far detector. This prediction is data-driven, but still dependent on some theoretical knowledge about the neutrino flux. In this paper, we study to what extent off-axis measurements themselves can be used to directly constrain neutrino flux models. In particular, we use them to extract separately the fluxes and spectra of different meson species in the beam. We call this measurement LENS (Lateral Extraction of Neutrino Spectra). Second, we demonstrate how the thus improved flux model helps to further constrain the far detector flux prediction, thereby ultimately improving oscillation measurements.
FOS: Physical sciences↗
VarIabiLity seLection of AstrophysIcal sources iN PTF (VILLAIN): I. Structure function fits to 71 million objects
Light-curve variability is well-suited to characterizing objects in surveys with high cadence and a long baseline. This is especially relevant in view of the large datasets to be produced by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We aim to determine variability parameters for objects in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and explore differences between quasars (QSOs), stars, and galaxies. We relate variability and colour information in preparation for future surveys. We fit joint likelihoods to structure functions (SFs) of 71 million PTF light curves with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. For each object, we assume a power-law SF and extract two parameters: the amplitude on timescales of one year, A, and a power-law index, γ. With these parameters and colours in the optical (Pan-STARRS1) and mid-infrared (WISE), we identify regions of parameter space dominated by different types of spectroscopically confirmed objects from SDSS. Candidate QSOs, stars, and galaxies are selected to show their parameter distributions. QSOs show high-amplitude variations in the R band, and the highest γ values. Galaxies have a broader range of amplitudes and their variability shows relatively little dependency on timescale. With variability and colours, we achieve a photometric selection purity of 99.3% for QSOs. Even though hard cuts in monochromatic variability alone are not as effective as seven-band magnitude cuts, variability is useful in characterizing object subclasses. Through variability, we also find QSOs that were erroneously classified as stars in the SDSS. We discuss perspectives and computational solutions in view of the upcoming LSST.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Efficient marine environmental characterisation to support monitoring of geological CO 2 storage
Carbon capture and storage is key for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and offshore geological formations provide vast CO 2 storage potential. Monitoring of sub-seabed CO 2 storage sites requires that anomalies signifying a loss of containment be detected, and if attributed to storage, quantified and their impact assessed. However, monitoring at or above the seabed is only useful if one can reliably differentiate abnormal signals from natural variability. Baseline acquisition is the default option for describing the natural state, however we argue that a comprehensive baseline assessment is likely expensive and time-bound, given the multi-decadal nature of CCS operations and the dynamic heterogeneity of the marine environment. We present an outline of the elements comprising an efficient marine environmental baseline to support offshore monitoring. We demonstrate that many of these elements can be derived from pre-existing and ongoing sources, not necessarily related to CCS project development. We argue that a sufficient baseline can be achieved by identifying key emergent properties of the system rather than assembling an extensive description of the physical, chemical and biological states. Further, that contemporary comparisons between impacted and non-impacted sites are likely to be as valuable as before and after comparisons. Furthermore, as these emergent properties may be nuanced between sites and seasons and comparative studies need to be validated by the careful choice of reference site, a site-specific understanding of the scales of heterogeneity will be an invaluable component of a baseline.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Concentration Dependent Interfacial Chemistry of the NaOH(aq):Gibbsite Interface
Caustic conditions are often employed for dissolution of a wide variety of minerals, where ion sorption, surface diffusion, and interfacial organization impact surface reactivity. In the case of gibbsite, gamma-Al(OH)3, the chemistry at the NaOH(aq) interface is deeply intertwined with industrial processing of aluminum, including metal production and the disposition of Al-containing wastes. To date, little is known about the structure, speciation, and dynamic behavior of gibbsite interfaces (and that of many other minerals) with NaOH(aq)—particularly as a function of ionic strength. Yet concentration-dependent interfacial organization and dynamics are a critical starting point to develop a fundamental understanding of the factors that influence dissolution. This work reports equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of the gamma-Al(OH)3:NaOH(aq) interface, revealing the sorption behavior and speciation of ions from 0.5–10 M [NaOH]. As inner-sphere complexes, Na+ primarily coordinates to the side of the gibbsite hexagonal cavities, while OH accepts hydrogen-bonding from the surface-OH groups. The mobility of inner-sphere Na+ and OH ions is significantly reduced due to a strong surface affinity in comparison to previous reports of NaCl, CaCl2, or BaCl2 electrolytes. At high [NaOH], contact ion pairing that is observed in the bulk solution is partially disrupted upon sorption to the gibbsite surface by the individual ion–surface interactions. The molecular-scale changes to surface speciation and competition between ion–surface vs. ion–ion interactions influence surface characterization of gibbsite and potential dissolution processes, providing a valuable baseline for starting conditions needed within future reactive molecular simulations.
alkaline solutions, IDREAM, gibbsite, molecular dy↗
Tracing priming effects in palsa peat carbon dynamics using a stable isotope-assisted metabolomics approach
Introduction: Peatlands store up to a third of global soil carbon, and in high latitudes their litter inputs are increasing and changing in composition under climate change. Although litter significantly influences peatland carbon and nutrient dynamics by changing the overall lability of peatland organic matter, the physicochemical mechanisms of this impact—and thus its full scope—remain poorly understood. Methods: We applied multimodal metabolomics (UPLC-HRMS, 1 H NMR) paired with 13 C Stable Isotope-Assisted Metabolomics (SIAM) to track litter carbon and its potential priming effects on both existing soil organic matter and carbon gas emissions. Through this approach, we achieved molecule-specific tracking of carbon transformations at unprecedented detail. Results: Our analysis revealed several key findings about carbon dynamics in palsa peat. Microbes responded rapidly to litter addition, producing a short-term increase in CO 2 emissions, fueled nearly exclusively by transformations of litter carbon. Litter inputs significantly contributed to the organic nitrogen pool through amino acids and peptide derivatives, which served as readily accessible nutrient sources for microbial communities. We traced the fate of plant-derived polyphenols including flavonoids like rutin, finding evidence of their degradation through heterocyclic C-ring fission, while accumulation of some polyphenols suggested their role in limiting overall decomposition. The SIAM approach detected subtle molecular changes indicating minimal and transient priming activity that was undetectable through conventional gas measurements alone. This transient response was characterized by brief microbial stimulation followed by rapid return to baseline metabolism. Pre-existing peat organic matter remained relatively stable; significant priming of its consumption was not observed, nor was its structural alteration. Discussion: This suggests that while litter inputs temporarily increase CO 2 emissions, they don’t sustain long-term acceleration of stored carbon decomposition or substantially decrease peat’s carbon store capacity. Our findings demonstrate how technological advancements in analytical tools can provide a more detailed view of carbon cycling processes in complex soil systems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Performance and Stability Characterization of the ICARUS Light Detection System
The ICARUS detector, a key component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab, consists of two identical T300 modules filled with liquid argon. It is equipped with a Light Detection System (LDS) based on 360 8-inch Hamamatsu R5912-MOD photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) arranged behind the wire planes to collect Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV, $\sim$ 128 nm) scintillation light. Operating under cryogenic conditions ( $\sim$ 87 K), the LDS is essential for determining the event start time (t0) with nanosecond precision for beam spill synchronization, improving longitudinal spatial resolution, and contributing to the event trigger and cosmic-ray mitigation. The performance of the LDS was investigated addressing both hardware and data analysis aspects. Following a progressive degradation in PMT gain observed during operations at FNAL, systematic gain measurements were first carried out from room temperature down to low temperatures. The results show stable performance at room temperature but a significant, irreversible reduction in gain at low temperatures. Based on these findings, a series of mitigation strategies were implemented in the ICARUS detector to preserve PMT performance and ensure reliable cryogenic operation. Currently, ongoing waveform analysis of the PMT signals is being performed to characterize signal shape, charge integration, and timing properties, aiming to refine and improve the agreement between experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations.
Saia, Clara [U. Catania (main); INAF, Catania; Cat↗
Fabrication of UN-Mo CERMET Nuclear Fuel Using Advanced Manufacturing Techniques
Ceramic-metallic nuclear fuels are a candidate fuel for nuclear thermal propulsion systems due to their high heat transport properties, which are necessary in very high-temperature environments. The conventional fabrication of uranium nitride–molybdenum fuel has been thoroughly studied in the past, but modern manufacturing techniques have presented a unique opportunity for further development within this field. This work demonstrates the use of advanced manufacturing techniques to produce nuclear fuel pellets composed of uranium nitride microspheres encased in a molybdenum matrix. Binder jetting is used to print molybdenum disks that are filled with uranium nitride microspheres and afterward sintered using spark plasma sintering. Two fuel pellets were fabricated to demonstrate the methodology and to provide a baseline analysis of the effects of temperature and pressure processing conditions. Characterization of the sintered fuel pellets includes detailed microstructural analysis and thermal conductivity measurements.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
King City Asbestos Corporation (KCAC) Mine Carbon Mineralization Field Test (Final Combined Report)
The overall objective of the KCAC carbon mineralization project is to determine the most successful approaches to CO 2 mineralization of asbestos-bearing serpentinite rocks and mine waste at the closed KCAC asbestos mine. The objectives of Budget Period 1 (BP1) are to characterize the site including, mineralogical and geochemical variability in site materials, baseline conditions including CO 2 flux and local climate, and to establish the designs for the second, experimental phase of the project. As described in Section 3 of this report, all tasks outlined in the Statement of Project Objective (SOPO) have been completed or are on schedule to be completed by the end of BP1. As described in Section 4, all success criteria and milestones have been met or will be met by the end of BP1. We conclude that the findings of BP1 strongly support moving to the second phase of the project to investigate methods to increase the rate of CO 2 mineralization. CO 2 flux monitoring during BP1 established an estimated baseline uptake of CO 2 over the 142,193 m 2 KCAC mine site of 147 and 179 metric tons CO 2 /yr using dynamic closed chamber and eddy covariance monitoring methods, respectively. Mineralogical analysis shows that the loose surficial waste material contains pyroaurite and minor hydromagnesite, indicating past carbon mineralization. Sediment samples at depths below 60 cm contained ~3 wt% brucite and localized high brucite contents of ~24 wt% were measured at depth, indicating significant unreacted material at relatively shallow depths. Together, these results demonstrate that despite prolonged exposure to the atmosphere, reactive material is still present and accessible and is naturally taking up atmospheric CO 2 . However, these natural rates are still well below rates that can be achieved by applying practices that can accelerate the CO 2 mineralization reaction. Designs for the Field-Testing Phase (BP2) of the project have been established, incorporating the findings of BP1. Based on results to date we have selected two methods to accelerate the rate of CO 2 mineralization, which we refer to as the Tilling Method and the Greenhouse Method. We hypothesize that these methods can increase the CO 2 mineralization rate by up to 5 times greater than the natural background rate measured in BP1. An Initial Lifecyle Assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) were conducted for these two methods. The LCA concluded that the baseline version of the Greenhouse and Tilling methods at commercial scale are expected to achieve a CDR efficiency of 97% and 71%, respectively (cumulative, over 30 years of operation). Incorporating the net CO 2 removal rates calculated in the LCA, the TEA found the levelized, 30-year costs of the baseline Greenhouse and Tilling methods to be $\$$95/t-CO 2 and $\$$119/t-CO 2 , respectively, and that costs could be brought to well below $\$$100/t-CO 2 for either method by scaling up the volume of rock utilized. An initial EH&S Risk Assessment, evaluating the potential EH&S risks of the proposed carbon mineralization methods at commercial scale, was completed by LLNL EH&S professionals for these two methods.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA
Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characterization of Oscillatory Response of Light-Weight Wind Turbine Rotors under Controlled Gust Pulses
Given the industry-wide trend of continual increases in the size of utility-scale wind turbines, a point will come where reductions will need to be made in terms of the weight of the turbine’s blades to ensure they can be as long as needed without sacrificing structural stability. One such technique that may be considered is to decrease the material used for the shell and spar cap. While this will solve the weight issue, it creates a new one entirely—less material for the shell and spar cap will in turn create blades that are more flexible than what is currently used. This article aims to investigate how the oscillatory response of light-weight wind turbine rotors is affected by these flexibility changes. The object of our study is the Sandia National Lab National Rotor Testbed (SNL-NRT) wind turbine, which the authors investigated in the course of a research project supported by SNL. Using a reduced-order characterization (ROC) technique based on controlled gust pulses, introduced by the authors in a previous work, the aeroelastic dynamics of the NRT’s original baseline blade design and several of its flexible variations were studied via numerical simulations employing the CODEF multiphysics suite. Results for this characterization are presented and analyzed, including a generalization of the ROC of the SNL-NRT oscillatory dynamics to larger machines with geometrical similarity. The latter will prove to be valuable in terms of extrapolating results from the present investigation and other ongoing studies to the scale of current and future commercial machines.
Ponta, Fernando (ORCID:0000000321032864)↗