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At least 91 records · Page 5
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DOE OSTI2023

Lessons learned in coupling atmospheric models across scales for onshore and offshore wind energy

Abstract. The Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling team, part of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) initiative, has studied various important challenges related to coupling mesoscale models to microscale models for the use case of wind energy development and operation. Several coupling methods and techniques for generating turbulence at the microscale that is subgrid to the mesoscale have been evaluated for a variety of cases. Case studies included flat-terrain, complex-terrain, and offshore environments. Methods were developed to bridge the terra incognita, which scales from about 100 m through the depth of the boundary layer. The team used wind-relevant metrics and archived code, case information, and assessment tools and is making those widely available. Lessons learned and discerned best practices are described in the context of the cases studied for the purpose of enabling further deployment of wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical coupling of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) – Part 2: A semi-discrete error analysis framework for assessing coupling schemes

Abstract. Part 1 (Wan et al., 2024) of this study discusses the motivation and empirical evaluation of a revision to the aerosol-related numerical process coupling in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) to address the previously reported issue of strong sensitivity of the simulated dust aerosol lifetime and dry removal rate to the model's vertical resolution. This paper complements that empirical justification of the revised scheme with a mathematical justification leveraging a semi-discrete analysis framework for assessing the splitting error of process coupling methods. The framework distinguishes the error due to numerical splitting from the error due to the time integration method(s) used for each individual process. Such a distinction results in a framework that provides an intuitive understanding of the causes of the splitting error. The application of this framework to the dust life cycle in EAMv1 confirms (i) that the original EAMv1 scheme artificially strengthens the effect of dry removal processes and (ii) that the revised splitting reduces that artificial strengthening. While the error analysis framework is presented in the context of the dust life cycle in EAMv1, the framework can be broadly leveraged to evaluate process coupling schemes, both in other physical problems and for any number of processes. This framework will be particularly powerful when the various process implementations support a variety of time integration approaches. Whereas traditional local truncation error approaches require separate consideration of each combination of time integration methods, this framework enables evaluation of coupling schemes independent of particular time integration approaches for each process while still allowing for the incorporation of these specific time integration errors if so desired. The framework also explains how the splitting error terms result from (i) the integration of individual processes in isolation from other processes and (ii) the choices of input state and time step size for the isolated integration of processes. Such a perspective has the potential for the rapid development of alternative coupling approaches that utilize knowledge both about the desired accuracy and about the computational costs of individual processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models

A first-order linear and numerically non-diffusive Eulerian transport algorithm, minVAR, was recently developed for preservation of correlations between interrelated tracers during advective transport. The present study extends this work by: (1) providing further investigation of several interesting geometric constructions found in contours of constant minVAR, short for minimum variance, through extension to three coordinate dimensions. These contours capture point-by-point representations of thousands of individual atmospheric aerosol and/or cloud particles as they evolve and are rendered on Eulerian grids at a level of sub-grid resolution limited only by numerical precision; and (2) exploration of geometric similarities between the Arakawa C-grid, used to obtain interpolated values of the wind field at grid scale and minVAR. In particular, we consider interpolation of the u and v horizontal components of wind velocity from grid to sub-grid scales. The last results are motivated by recent applications of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied in the coastal Houston region, where the recent TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) field campaign was organized. A unique and fully consistent mapping is obtained between particles moving along meteorological wind trajectories and the non-diffusive, non-dispersive representation of such trajectories on an Eulerian grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty of SW Cloud Radiative Effect in Atmospheric Models Due to the Parameterization of Liquid Cloud Optical Properties

Clouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (r eff ) and modulates the r eff -dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of r eff -dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD-dependent estimation of r eff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of r eff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m –2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Numerical Atmospheric Models

In this study, a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water-management infrastructure design. Here, this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville, Tennessee (U.S.), in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to the IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15 km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, whereas NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5 km level. The recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15 km or 15–5 km nested grids, Morrison microphysics, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm event forecasting and analyses for design, operations, and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

Chen, Xiaodong↗