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DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic detection of cataclysmic variables from SDSS images

Abstract Investigating rare and new objects have always been an important direction in astronomy. Cataclysmic variables (CVs) are ideal and natural celestial bodies for studying the accretion process of semi-detached binaries with accretion processes. However, the sample size of CVs must increase because a lager gap exists between the observational and the theoretical expanding CVs. Astronomy has entered the big data era and can provide massive images containing CV candidates. CVs as a type of faint celestial objects, are highly challenging to be identified directly from images using automatic manners. Deep learning has rapidly developed in intelligent image processing and has been widely applied in some astronomical fields with excellent detection results. YOLOX, as the latest YOLO framework, is advantageous in detecting small and dark targets. This work proposes an improved YOLOX-based framework according to the characteristics of CVs and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric images to train and verify the model to realise CV detection. We use the Convolutional Block Attention Module to increase the number of output features with the feature extraction network and adjust the feature fusion network to obtain fused features. Accordingly, the loss function is modified. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved model produces satisfactory results, with average accuracy (mean average Precision at 0.5) of 92.0%, Precision of 92.9%, Recall of 94.3%, and $F1-score$ of 93.6% on the test set. The proposed method can efficiently achieve the identification of CVs in test samples and search for CV candidates in unlabeled images. The image data vastly outnumber the spectra in the SDSS-released data. With supplementary follow-up observations or spectra, the proposed model can help astronomers in seeking and detecting CVs in a new manner to ensure that a more extensive CV catalog can be built. The proposed model may also be applied to the detection of other kinds of celestial objects.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Realistic galaxy image simulation via score-based generative models

ABSTRACT We show that a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM), a class of score-based generative model, can be used to produce realistic mock images that mimic observations of galaxies. Our method is tested with Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) grz imaging of galaxies from the Photometry and Rotation curve OBservations from Extragalactic Surveys (PROBES) sample and galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Subjectively, the generated galaxies are highly realistic when compared with samples from the real data set. We quantify the similarity by borrowing from the deep generative learning literature, using the ‘Fréchet inception distance’ to test for subjective and morphological similarity. We also introduce the ‘synthetic galaxy distance’ metric to compare the emergent physical properties (such as total magnitude, colour, and half-light radius) of a ground truth parent and synthesized child data set. We argue that the DDPM approach produces sharper and more realistic images than other generative methods such as adversarial networks (with the downside of more costly inference), and could be used to produce large samples of synthetic observations tailored to a specific imaging survey. We demonstrate two potential uses of the DDPM: (1) accurate inpainting of occluded data, such as satellite trails, and (2) domain transfer, where new input images can be processed to mimic the properties of the DDPM training set. Here we ‘DESI-fy’ cartoon images as a proof of concept for domain transfer. Finally, we suggest potential applications for score-based approaches that could motivate further research on this topic within the astronomical community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Detection and Classification of Radio Galaxy Images by Deep Learning

Abstract Surveys conducted by radio astronomy observatories, such as SKA, MeerKAT, Very Large Array, and ASKAP, have generated massive astronomical images containing radio galaxies (RGs). This generation of massive RG images has imposed strict requirements on the detection and classification of RGs and makes manual classification and detection increasingly difficult, even impossible. Rapid classification and detection of images of different types of RGs help astronomers make full use of the observed astronomical image data for further processing and analysis. The classification of FRI and FRII is relatively easy, and there are more studies and literature on them at present, but FR0 and FRI are similar, so it is difficult to distinguish them. It poses a greater challenge to image processing. At present, deep learning has made breakthrough progress in the field of image analysis and processing and has preliminary applications in astronomical data processing. Compared with classification algorithms that can only classify galaxies, object detection algorithms that can locate and classify RGs simultaneously are preferred. In target detection algorithms, YOLOv5 has outstanding advantages in the classification and positioning of small targets. Therefore, we propose a deep-learning method based on an improved YOLOv5 object detection model that makes full use of multisource data, combining FIRST radio with SDSS optical image data, and realizes the automatic detection of FR0, FRI, and FRII RGs. The innovation of our work is that on the basis of the original YOLOv5 object detection model, we introduce the SE Net attention mechanism, increase the number of preset anchors, adjust the network structure of the feature pyramid, and modify the network structure, thereby allowing our model to demonstrate galaxy classification and position detection effects. Our improved model produces satisfactory results, as evidenced by experiments. Overall, the mean average precision (mAP@0.5) of our improved model on the test set reaches 89.4%, which can determine the position (R.A. and decl.) and automatically detect and classify FR0s, FRIs, and FRIIs. Our work contributes to astronomy because it allows astronomers to locate FR0, FRI, and FRII galaxies in a relatively short time and can be further combined with other astronomically generated data to study the properties of these galaxies. The target detection model can also help astronomers find FR0s, FRIs, and FRIIs in future surveys and build a large-scale star RG catalog. Moreover, our work is also useful for the detection of other types of galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Survey-wide asteroid discovery with a high-performance computing enabled non-linear digital tracking framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. Here, we present a novel method that adapts “digital tracking” – traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images – to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

Asteroid discovery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hawai‘i Supernova Flows: a peculiar velocity survey using over a Thousand Supernovae in the near-infrared

ABSTRACT We introduce the Hawai‘i Supernova Flows project and present summary statistics of the first 1217 astronomical transients observed, 668 of which are spectroscopically classified Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia). Our project is designed to obtain systematics-limited distances to SNe Ia while consuming minimal dedicated observational resources. To date, we have performed almost 5000 near-infrared (NIR) observations of astronomical transients and have obtained spectra for over 200 host galaxies lacking published spectroscopic redshifts. In this survey paper, we describe the methodology used to select targets, collect/reduce data, calculate distances, and perform quality cuts. We compare our methods to those used in similar studies, finding general agreement or mild improvement. Our summary statistics include various parametrizations of dispersion in the Hubble diagrams produced using fits to several commonly used SN Ia models. We find the lowest dispersions using the SNooPy package’s EBV_model2, with a root mean square deviation of 0.165 mag and a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.123 mag. The full utility of the Hawai‘i Supernova Flows data set far exceeds the analyses presented in this paper. Our photometry will provide a valuable test bed for models of SN Ia incorporating NIR data. Differential cosmological studies comparing optical samples and combined optical and NIR samples will have increased leverage for constraining chromatic effects like dust extinction. We invite the community to explore our data by making the light curves, fits, and host galaxy redshifts publicly accessible.

Do, Aaron (ORCID:0000000334297845)↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Rapid Calculation of Binding Affinities for Antigen and Antibody Design and Affinity Maturation Simulations

The accurate and efficient calculation of protein-protein binding affinities is an essential component in antibody and antigen design and optimization, and in computer modeling of antibody affinity maturation. Such calculations remain challenging despite advances in computer hardware and algorithms, primarily because proteins are flexible molecules, and thus, require explicit or implicit incorporation of multiple conformational states into the computational procedure. The astronomical size of the amino acid sequence space further compounds the challenge by requiring predictions to be computed within a short time so that many sequence variants can be tested. In this study, we compare three classes of methods for antibody/antigen (Ab/Ag) binding affinity calculations: (i) a method that relies on the physical separation of the Ab/Ag complex in equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, (ii) a collection of 18 scoring functions that act on an ensemble of structures created using homology modeling software, and (iii) methods based on the molecular mechanics-generalized Born surface area (MM-GBSA) energy decomposition, in which the individual contributions of the energy terms are scaled to optimize agreement with the experiment. When applied to a set of 49 antibody mutations in two Ab/HIV gp120 complexes, all of the methods are found to have modest accuracy, with the highest Pearson correlations reaching about 0.6. In particular, the most computationally intensive method, i.e., MD simulation, did not outperform several scoring functions. The optimized energy decomposition methods provided marginally higher accuracy, but at the expense of requiring experimental data for parametrization. Within each method class, we examined the effect of the number of independent computational replicates, i.e., modeled structures or reinitialized MD simulations, on the prediction accuracy. We suggest using about ten modeled structures for scoring methods, and about five simulation replicates for MD simulations as a rule of thumb for obtaining reasonable convergence. We anticipate that our study will be a useful resource for practitioners working to incorporate binding affinity calculations within their protein design and optimization process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable and Energy-Efficient Methods for Interactive Exploration of Scientific Data

The main scientific contributions of this project are the following novel concepts for multidimensional arrays: shape-based similarity join (SIGMOD 2016), incremental view maintenance (SIGMOD 2017), user-defined stencil functions (HPDC 2017), and distributed caching for in-situ processing (SSDBM 2018). Building on our collaboration with the astrophysics group at LBNL, we applied these techniques to the data generated in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) astronomical survey. They played a pivotal role in the first-ever observation of a neutron star merger, which produces gravitational waves and turns out to be the origin of heavy elements, including gold. This has lead to a Science magazine article that has received extensive media coverage on ACM TechNews, Slashdot, FiveThirtyEight, and Quanta Magazine, among others. Additionally, two other articles detailing related aspects of the same discovery have been published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters journal. These publications have more than 3,000 citations according to Google Scholar (as of February 2022). This cross-disciplinary collaboration provided very good opportunities to apply database techniques to real-life scientific problems. The fact that they facilitated major discoveries in astrophysics proves the importance of our research. In addition to the work on multidimensional array databases, this project has also developed stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization algorithms for training large scale machine learning models, methods for querying in-situ data, and a database query optimizer based on sketch synopses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

ATAT: Astronomical Transformer for time series and Tabular data

Context. The advent of next-generation survey instruments, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), is opening a window for new research in time-domain astronomy. The Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) was created to test the capacity of brokers to deal with a simulated LSST stream. Aims. Our aim is to develop a next-generation model for the classification of variable astronomical objects. We describe ATAT, the Astronomical Transformer for time series And Tabular data, a classification model conceived by the ALeRCE alert broker to classify light curves from next-generation alert streams. ATAT was tested in production during the first round of the ELAsTiCC campaigns. Methods. ATAT consists of two transformer models that encode light curves and features using novel time modulation and quantile feature tokenizer mechanisms, respectively. ATAT was trained on different combinations of light curves, metadata, and features calculated over the light curves. We compare ATAT against the current ALeRCE classifier, a balanced hierarchical random forest (BHRF) trained on human-engineered features derived from light curves and metadata. Results. When trained on light curves and metadata, ATAT achieves a macro F1 score of 82.9 ± 0.4 in 20 classes, outperforming the BHRF model trained on 429 features, which achieves a macro F1 score of 79.4 ± 0.1. Conclusions. The use of transformer multimodal architectures, combining light curves and tabular data, opens new possibilities for classifying alerts from a new generation of large etendue telescopes, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory, in real-world brokering scenarios.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of the distributed image processing infrastructure to produce the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is preparing to execute the most ambitious astronomical survey ever attempted, the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Currently the final phase of construction is under way in the Chilean Andes, with the Observatory’s ten-year science mission scheduled to begin in 2025. Rubin’s 8.4-meter telescope will nightly scan the southern hemisphere collecting imagery in the wavelength range 320–1050 nm covering the entire observable sky every 4 nights using a 3.2 gigapixel camera, the largest imaging device ever built for astronomy. Automated detection and classification of celestial objects will be performed by sophisticated algorithms on high-resolution images to progressively produce an astronomical catalog eventually composed of 20 billion galaxies and 17 billion stars and their associated physical properties. In this article we present an overview of the system currently being constructed to perform data distribution as well as the annual campaigns which reprocess the entire image dataset collected since the beginning of the survey. These processing campaigns will utilize computing and storage resources provided by three Rubin data facilities (one in the US and two in Europe). Each year a Data Release will be produced and disseminated to science collaborations for use in studies comprising four main science pillars: probing dark matter and dark energy, taking inventory of solar system objects, exploring the transient optical sky and mapping the Milky Way. Also presented is the method by which we leverage some of the common tools and best practices used for management of large-scale distributed data processing projects in the high energy physics and astronomy communities. We also demonstrate how these tools and practices are utilized within the Rubin project in order to overcome the specific challenges faced by the Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

sOPTICS: a modified density-based algorithm for identifying galaxy groups/clusters and brightest cluster galaxies

A direct approach to studying the galaxy–halo connection is to analyse groups and clusters of galaxies that trace the underlying dark matter haloes, emphasizing the importance of identifying galaxy clusters and their associated brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). In this work, we test and propose a robust density-based clustering algorithm that outperforms the traditional Friends-of-Friends (FoF) algorithm in the currently available galaxy group/cluster catalogues. Our new approach is a modified version of the Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm, which accounts for line-of-sight positional uncertainties due to redshift space distortions by incorporating a scaling factor, and is thereby referred to as sOPTICS. When tested on both a galaxy group catalogue based on semi-analytic galaxy formation simulations and observational data, our algorithm demonstrated robustness to outliers and relative insensitivity to hyperparameter choices. In total, we compared the results of eight clustering algorithms. The proposed density-based clustering method, sOPTICS, outperforms FoF in accurately identifying giant galaxy clusters and their associated BCGs in various environments with higher purity and recovery rate, also successfully recovering 115 BCGs out of 118 reliable BCGs from a large galaxy sample. Furthermore, when applied to an independent observational catalogue without extensive re-tuning, sOPTICS maintains high recovery efficiency, confirming its flexibility and effectiveness for large-scale astronomical surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Astrometry in two-photon interferometry using an Earth rotation fringe scan

Optical interferometers may not require a phase-stable optical link between the stations if instead sources of quantum-mechanically entangled pairs could be provided to them, enabling long baselines. We developed a new variation of this idea, proposing that photons from two different astronomical sources could be interfered at two decoupled stations. Interference products can then be calculated in post-processing or requiring only a slow, classical connection between stations. In this work, we investigated practical feasibility of this approach. We developed a Bayesian analysis method for the earth rotation fringe scanning technique and showed that in the limit of high signal-to-noise ratio it reproduced the results from a simple Fisher matrix analysis. Here we identify candidate stair pairs in the northern hemisphere, where this technique could be applied. With two telescopes with an effective collecting area of ~ 2 m 2 , we could detect fringing and measure the astrometric separation of the sources at ~100 μas precision in a few hours of observations, in agreement with previous estimates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2026

21 cm Power Spectrum Analysis of North Celestial Pole Observations with the Tianlai Dish Pathfinder Array

The Tianlai Dish Pathfinder Array (TDPA) is a radio interferometer designed to test techniques for 21 cm intensity mapping in the post-reionization Universe as a means of measuring large-scale cosmic structure. Using nine nights of observations targeting the North Celestial Pole field, totaling approximately 107 hr of integration time, we analyze data in the frequency range 700–800 MHz (corresponding to redshift z ∼ 0.9). We do the data format conversion, radio frequency interference flagging, calibration, imaging and point source subtraction, and foreground removal via Singular Value Decomposition. The spherically averaged power spectrum Δ 2 (k) is obtained. Furthermore, this work successfully establishes and validates a comprehensive data analysis framework for the TDPA. We identify key improvements including sky model refinement, increased integration time, and pipeline optimization that will enable future detection of the 21 cm signal through auto-correlation and cross-correlation with optical galaxy surveys.

cosmology: large-scale structure of universe↗