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AdvoCATE - User Guide

The basic vision of AdvoCATE is to automate the creation, manipulation, and management of large-scale assurance cases based on a formal theory of argument structures. Its main purposes are for creating and manipulating argument structures for safety assurance cases using the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), and as a test bed and proof-of-concept for the formal theory of argument structures. AdvoCATE is available for Windows 7, Macintosh OSX, and Linux. Eventually, AdvoCATE will serve as a dashboard for safety related information and provide an infrastructure for safety decisions and management.

Safety Case↗

The Eccentric Behavior of Nearly Frozen Orbits

Frozen orbits are orbits which have only short-period changes in their mean eccentricity and argument of periapse, so that they basically keep a fixed orientation within their plane of motion. Nearly frozen orbits are those whose eccentricity and argument of periapse have values close to those of a frozen orbit. We call them "nearly" frozen because their eccentricity vector (a vector whose polar coordinates are eccentricity and argument of periapse) will stay within a bounded distance from the frozen orbit eccentricity vector, circulating around it over time. For highly inclined orbits around the Earth, this distance is effectively constant over time. Furthermore, frozen orbit eccentricity values are low enough that these orbits are essentially eccentric (i.e., off center) circles, so that nearly frozen orbits around Earth are bounded above and below by frozen orbits.

spacecraft↗

The Theory of Artificial Satellites in Terms of the Orbital True Longitude

The author's previous theory of the artificial satellite is derived in terms of the. disturbed eccentric anomaly. The present development, in terms of the orbital true longitude, is a substantial improvement over the earlier work in that it leads to the faster convergence for large eccentricities and to a smaller number of terms in the series representing the perturbations. Moreover, each approximation of the radius vector and of the parameters determining the position of the orbit plane is obtained not in the form of a truncated infinite series but in the form of trigonometric polynomials in two arguments. These arguments are the mean true anomaly and the mean argument of the latitude. The present theory, like the previous one, permits the computation of perturbations of any desired order. Thus, any future information about earth's gravitational field can easily be included.

Musen, Peter↗

Understanding and Evaluating Assurance Cases

Assurance cases are a method for providing assurance for a system by giving an argument to justify a claim about the system, based on evidence about its design, development, and tested behavior. In comparison with assurance based on guidelines or standards (which essentially specify only the evidence to be produced), the chief novelty in assurance cases is provision of an explicit argument. In principle, this can allow assurance cases to be more finely tuned to the specific circumstances of the system, and more agile than guidelines in adapting to new techniques and applications. The first part of this report (Sections 1-4) provides an introduction to assurance cases. Although this material should be accessible to all those with an interest in these topics, the examples focus on software for airborne systems, traditionally assured using the DO-178C guidelines and its predecessors. A brief survey of some existing assurance cases is provided in Section 5. The second part (Section 6) considers the criteria, methods, and tools that may be used to evaluate whether an assurance case provides sufficient confidence that a particular system or service is fit for its intended use. An assurance case cannot provide unequivocal "proof" for its claim, so much of the discussion focuses on the interpretation of such less-than-definitive arguments, and on methods to counteract confirmation bias and other fallibilities in human reasoning.

Rushby, John↗

Formal Foundations for Hierarchical Safety Cases

Safety cases are increasingly being required in many safety-critical domains to assure, using structured argumentation and evidence, that a system is acceptably safe. However, comprehensive system-wide safety arguments present appreciable challenges to develop, understand, evaluate, and manage, partly due to the volume of information that they aggregate, such as the results of hazard analysis, requirements analysis, testing, formal verification, and other engineering activities. Previously, we have proposed hierarchical safety cases, hicases, to aid the comprehension of safety case argument structures. In this paper, we build on a formal notion of safety case to formalise the use of hierarchy as a structuring technique, and show that hicases satisfy several desirable properties. Our aim is to provide a formal, theoretical foundation for safety cases. In particular, we believe that tools for high assurance systems should be granted similar assurance to the systems to which they are applied. To this end, we formally specify and prove the correctness of key operations for constructing and managing hicases, which gives the specification for implementing hicases in AdvoCATE, our toolset for safety case automation. We motivate and explain the theory with the help of a simple running example, extracted from a real safety case and developed using AdvoCATE.

Hierarchy↗

Ancient Air Caught by Shooting Stars

It is a truth almost universally acknowledged that Earth’s atmosphere before about 2.5 billion years ago had little or no free oxygen. The classic argument for anoxia on ancient Earth is that a distinct change occurred in the oxidation state of many surface rocks and minerals around the end of the Archaean eon (which lasted from 4 billion to 2.5 billion years ago). A more recent argument is that a sudden, permanent change in the relative abundances of rare sulfur isotopes preserved in sediments also occurred at that time — a change that can be linked to differences in sulfur’s atmospheric chemistry in the presence or absence of oxygen. These arguments are strong. It therefore comes as a surprise that melted meteor fragments recovered from Archaean limestone indicate that the contemporaneous atmosphere above 75 kilometres was highly oxidized, as reported by Tomkins et al. on page 235.

ancient Earth's atmosphere↗

FUELEAP Model-Based System Safety Analysis

NASA researchers, in a partnership with Boeing, are investigating a fuel-cell powered variant of the X-57 “Maxwell” Mod-II electric propulsion aircraft, which is itself derived from a stock Tecnam P2006T. The “Fostering Ultra-Efficient Low-Emitting Aviation Power” (FUELEAP) project will replace the X-57 power subsystem with a hybrid Solid-Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) system to increase the potential range of the electric-propulsion aircraft while dramatically improving efficiency and emissions over stock internal-combustion engines. Our FUELEAP safety analysis faces two primary challenges. First, the Part 23 certificated Tecnam P2006T is undergoing significant modifications to host the hybrid electric-propulsion system, and the challenge is to assure that the safety inherent in the stock aircraft (and subsequently in X-57 Mod-II) is not compromised by changes in avionics, aircraft structural loading, weight and balance, or other considerations. Secondly, because the SOFC power system has little (if any) relevant in-service precedent, our challenge is to assure that we identify and mitigate all reasonably plausible hazards introduced by unique FUELEAP equipage. We are investigating and utilizing Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) methods to help us address these FUELEAP safety challenges. We captured aircraft-level system hazard conditions using instances of a SysML hazard block via aircraft-level Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA). Then, using SysML models of the FUELEAP architecture, we related the hazard conditions to initiating system events and possible mitigations, such as design architecture modifications or operational constraints. We are continuing to define our approach to MBSA by developing a component-by-component inventory of local failure modes and tracing their possible contribution to hazard conditions. Finally, we are applying an argument-based approach to FUELEAP assurance. Through a FUELEAP “safety case,” we are providing an explicit argument for FUELEAP safety by associating assurance evidence with overarching safety claims through a structured argument.

Woodham, Kurt P.↗

IV&V Assurance Case Design for Artemis II

As human-rated missions like those in NASA’s Artemis program continue to grow in both size and complexity, and the role of software in achieving mission objectives expands dramatically, NASA’s Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Teams face evolving challenges in assuring the safety and performance of the safety- and mission-critical embedded software that is essential to landing astronauts on the surface of the Moon by 2024. Key among these challenges is IV&V’s desire to present a cohesive, integrated assurance statement to its stakeholders that encapsulates and summarizes our assurance positions across the integrated Artemis systems and their combined role in support of a safe and successful flight. In order to meet this challenge, the IV&V Teams have begun a transition to using formal assurance case concepts and documentation in the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) to build an argument in support of software assurance. IV&V recognizes significant benefits to the logical argumentation structure provided by assurance cases and GSN over our current practices for documenting and managing assurance claims. In order to reap these benefits, IV&V is integrating the use of assurance case concepts with our paradigm of follow-the-risk capability based assurance. Because of this, assurance cases created and used by IV&V are distinct from the sort of assurance case created by a development project or embedded software assurance organization. IV&V’s assurance cases depend much less upon standards and regulations, and more on evidence captured by IV&V regarding the environment, requirements, design, and implementation. IV&V constructs an independent network of claims based on an independent decomposition of arguments. Based upon the risk posture of these claims and their associated software and software artifacts, IV&V then develops and executes engineering analyses and testing, which provide evidence to either support or refute the claim. This emerging risk-informed assurance case methodology is being put into practice as IV&V plans for support of the Artemis II mission, the first flight of the Orion capsule and Space Launch System with astronauts on board.

Gerek Whitman↗

IV&V Assurance Case Design for Artemis II

As human-rated missions like those in NASA's Artemis program continue to grow in both size and complexity, and the role of software in achieving mission objectives expands dramatically, NASA's Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Teams face evolving challenges in assuring the safety and performance of the safety- and mission-critical embedded software that is essential to landing astronauts on the surface of the Moon by 2024. Key among these challenges is IV&V's desire to present a cohesive, integrated assurance statement to its stakeholders that encapsulates and summarizes our assurance positions across the integrated Artemis systems and their combined role in support of a safe and successful flight. In order to meet this challenge, the IV&V Teams have begun a transition to using formal assurance case concepts and documentation in the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) to build an argument in support of software assurance. IV&V recognizes significant benefits to the logical argumentation structure provided by assurance cases and GSN over our current practices for documenting and managing assurance claims. In order to reap these benefits, IV&V is integrating the use of assurance case concepts with our paradigm of follow-the-risk capability based assurance. Because of this, assurance cases created and used by IV&V are distinct from the sort of assurance case created by a development project or embedded software assurance organization. IV&V's assurance cases depend much less upon standards and regulations, and more on evidence captured by IV&V regarding the environment, requirements, design, and implementation. IV&V constructs an independent network of claims based on an independent decomposition of arguments. Based upon the risk posture of these claims and their associated software and software artifacts, IV&V then develops and executes engineering analyses and testing, which provide evidence to either support or refute the claim. This emerging risk-informed assurance case methodology is being put into practice as IV&V plans for support of the Artemis II mission, the first flight of the Orion capsule and Space Launch System with astronauts on board.

Whitman, Gerek↗

Overarching Properties as Means of Compliance: An Industrial Case Study

The Overarching Properties (OPs) have been created by an inter-national working group and are being evaluated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), industry, and other certifying agencies in an effort to streamline certification processes. Their intent is to facilitate the use of alternative approaches and to al-low flexibility to combine the system, software, and complex hardware certification. The hope is that the FAA may eventually establish an Advisory Circular that offers the OPs as a Means of Compliance (MoC) for software approval (and eventually systems and hardware) by showing the product possesses the three OPs: Intent (specification of the intended behavior), Correctness (implementation of the intended behavior) and Innocuity (safety of unintended behavior). In the certification community, there is still a concern about the practicability of using such high level properties in certification. This paper aims to address that concern by showing possession of the OPs in an industrial case study using assurance arguments. The two main contributions of this paper are: a certification process based on OPs as Means of Compliance, and a certification argument for an on-board physical model of an UAV, as industrial example. We pro-pose a hybrid approach for the certification process that combines OPs with existing certification standards. Thus, OPs can be used for parts of a system that uses technologies that are not supported by current standards or for which existing standards require additional effort without commensurate additional safety assurance.

certification↗

On the tidal effects in the motion of artificial satellites.

The general perturbations in the elliptic and vectorial elements of a satellite as caused by the tidal deformations of the non-spherical Earth are developed into trigonometric series in the standard ecliptical arguments of Hill-Brown lunar theory and in the equatorial elements of the satellite. The integration of the differential equations for variation of elements of the satellite in this theory is easy because all arguments are linear or nearly linear in time. The trigonometrical expansion permits a judgment about the relative significance of the amplitudes and periods of different tidal 'waves' over a long period of time. Graphs are presented of the tidal perturbations in the elliptic elements of the BE-C satellite which illustrate long term periodic behavior. The tidal effects are clearly noticeable in the observations and their comparison with the theory permits improvement of the 'global' Love numbers for the Earth.

Musen, P.↗

Sampling functions for geophysics

A set of spherical sampling functions is defined such that they are related to spherical-harmonic functions in the same way that the sampling functions of information theory are related to sine and cosine functions. An orderly distribution of (N + 1) squared sampling points on a sphere is given, for which the (N + 1) squared spherical sampling functions span the same linear manifold as do the spherical-harmonic functions through degree N. The transformations between the spherical sampling functions and the spherical-harmonic functions are given by recurrence relations. The spherical sampling functions of two arguments are extended to three arguments and to nonspherical reference surfaces. Typical applications of this formalism to geophysical topics are sketched.

Giacaglia, G. E. O.↗

Stable longitudes for 12-hr eccentric orbit satellites.

The accelerated longitude drift regimes of eccentric 12-hr orbits are considered, due to the resonant geopotential. These quasi-stationary orbits are under investigation at NASA for large payload earth surveillance spacecraft in the small applications technology satellite (SATS) program. Inclinations near 'critical' are especially attractive because of their possible long term stability, and these are examined in detail. 'Stable' equator crossing longitudes for these satellites are found as functions of the argument of perigee. As long as the argument of perigee is between plus or minus 100 deg, these stable longitudes lie within a narrow range. Maximum 'east-west' stationkeeping requirements for these satellites at nonequilibrium positions are in the range of 0.3 to 3 m/sec/yr.

Wagner, C. A.↗

The tidal loss of satellite-orbiting objects and its implications for the lunar surface

The solar system is composed of numerous bodies orbiting the sun, and numerous satellites orbiting planets. However, no objects greater than a kilometer in diameter are known to orbit satellites. Theoretical arguments are used to show that most objects orbiting satellites ultimately would be destroyed by tidal interactions. This may explain why such objects have not been observed. These arguments are applied to objects orbiting the moon. The ages and sizes of most of the circular mare basins are compatible with the lifetimes and crater sizes expected for impacts by objects caught in decaying lunar orbits. The morphology of a few circular mare basins (Crisium, Serenitatis, and possibly Imbrium) indicates that they could have been formed by such impacts. Thus, the lunar surface may provide a record of impacts due to objects caught in tidally decaying lunar orbits.

Reid, M. J.↗

Thermomechanical behavior of amorphous tactic methacrylate polymers

Dynamic mechanical spectra of amorphous stereoregular poly(methyl methacrylate)s and poly(t-butyl methacrylate)s with assigned microtacticities are presented and discussed. An intermolecular argument is invoked to account for the higher glass transition temperature of syndiotactic vis a vis isotactic PMMA, in spite of the higher density of the latter at 30 C. An argument is presented to show that the ratio of glassy-region relaxation temperature to glass transition temperature is not only a measure of the degree of coupling of the beta and glass transition processes, but also of the degree to which intermolecular factors influence these processes. The greater extent of the low-temperature irreversibilities observed in the thermomechanical spectra of poly(t-butyl methacrylate)s is attributed to the brittle character induced by the bulky side groups which presumably weaken cohesive forces.

Kiran, E.↗

Possible sources of the diffuse soft X-ray flux

A review is presented of recent arguments concerning the origin of the cosmic X-ray background in the energy region below 1 keV. Observational limitations on a possible hot intergalactic medium are discussed. Reanalysis of the Small Magellatic Cloud shadowing experiment of McCammon et al. (1971) using refined neutral hydrogen maps have confirmed the conclusion that at least 75% of the 1/4 keV flux detected from that direction must originate from regions closer than the SMC. Recent rocket observations have located three galactic soft X-ray emitting regions of large angular extent. Arguments are reviewed that the emission mechanism for this diffuse galactic flux must be thermal. It is suggested that a component of the interstellar medium is very hot and is responsible for both the soft X-ray background and the oxygen VI ions seen as interstellar absorption lines in the ultraviolet spectra of some early-type stars observed by the Copernicus satellite.

Bunner, A. N.↗

On the lower mass limit for the carbon detonation scenario

The lower mass limit for carbon detonation (about 4 solar masses) is due to an argument by Paczynski (1970) that stars in the range between 1.4 and 3.5 solar masses will lose their envelopes prior to carbon detonation. This argument is based on two criteria for mass loss: (1) the envelope is unstable to adiabatic oscillations, and (2) the total energy of the envelope is positive. Recent hydrodynamic calculations of red-giant envelopes have shown that the envelopes are highly nonadiabatic and that the second criterion is not a sufficient condition for mass loss. Thus, a calculation which takes into account the nonadiabatic nature of the envelope is required in order to determine the lower mass limit for carbon detonation. This lower mass limit is directly related to the formation mechanisms and statistics of supernovae and pulsars.

Endal, A. S.↗

Streamline curvature effects on turbulent boundary layers

A theoretical tool has been developed for predicting, in a nonempirical manner, effects of streamline curvature and coordinate-system rotation on turbulent boundary layers. The second-order closure scheme developed by Wilcox and Traci has been generalized for curved streamline flow and for flow in a rotating coordinate system. A physically based straightforward argument shows that curvature/rotation primarily affects the turbulent mixing energy; the argument yields suitable curvature/rotation terms which are added to the mixing-energy equation. Singular-perturbation solutions valid in the wall layer of a curved-wall boundary layer and a fully developed rotating channel flow demonstrate that, with the curvature/rotation terms, the model predicts the curved-wall and the rotating coordinate system laws of the wall. Results of numerical computations of curved-wall boundary layers and of rotating channel flow show that curvature/rotation effects can be computed accurately with second-order closure.

Wilcox, D. C.↗