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SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters

Design, Development, and Testing of a UAV Hardware-in-the-Loop Testbed for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

The airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future with the integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, other forms of aviation technology into the airspace. The new technology and complexity increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems & systems of systems can be very difficult, expensive, and sometimes unsafe in real life scenarios. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. The framework injects flight related anomalies related to ground systems, routing, airport congestion, etc. to test and verify algorithms for NAS safety. In our research work, we develop a live, distributed, hardware-in-the-loop testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics along with exploring further research possibilities to verify and validate future algorithms for NAS safety. The testbed integrates virtual aircraft using the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, UAVs using onboard sensors and cellular communications, and hardware in the loop components. In addition, the testbed includes an additional research framework to support and simplify future research activities. It enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of this system. Software reliability, safety and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed. Integration of HITL elements in the development phases and veri cation/ validation are key elements to this report.

HITL

Designing a Flight Test of a Flight Path Management System for Advanced Air Mobility Research

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has completed a flight test to evaluate the performance of an onboard prototype automation system operating in future high density urban airspace. The test was part of a research investigation of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept, with a focus on a future environment having hundreds of simultaneous operations over a metropolitan area. The complexity of this future UAM airspace may require automation capable of replanning an aircraft’s path in the presence of traffic and other changing constraints. A live-virtual-constructive (LVC) approach was used to conduct the test. Prototype automation technology was integrated into one of the two live aircraft, which were combined with virtual traffic to create a mixed reality environment at the target airspace density. In-flight evaluation enabled verification of the automation’s functions and discovery of any unexpected behaviors resulting from its operation in an actual flight environment. The in-flight evaluation also provided data for validation of air traffic simulations. This paper discusses the design, methodology, and challenges overcome to conduct a successful flight test. Remaining challenges, future work, and recommendations to improve the flight test capability are also discussed.

Advanced Air Mobility

Feasibility of Mixed Equipage Operations in the Same Airspace

This study used a human-in-the-loop simulation to examine the feasibility of mixed equipage operations in an automated separation assurance environment under higher traffic densities. The study involved two aircraft equipage alternatives with and without data link and four traffic conditions. In all traffic conditions the unequipped traffic count was increased linearly throughout the scenario from approximately 5 to 20 aircraft. Condition One consisted solely of this unequipped traffic, while the remaining three conditions also included a constant number of equipped aircraft operating within the same airspace: 15 equipped aircraft in condition two, 30 in condition three, and 45 in condition four. If traffic load became excessive during any run, participants were instructed to refuse sector entry to inbound unequipped aircraft until sector load became manageable. Results showed a progressively higher number of unequipped aircraft turned away under the second, third, and fourth scenario conditions. Controller workload also increased progressively. Participants rated the mixed operations concept as acceptable, with some qualifications about procedures and information displays. These results showed that mixed operations might be feasible in the same airspace, if unequipped aircraft count is held to a workable level. This level will decrease with increasing complexity. The results imply that integrated airspace configuration is feasible to a limit. The results also indicate that the conflict detection and resolution automation, equipage, and traffic density are important factors that will need to be considered for airspace configuration.

Kopardekar, Parimal

Feasibility of Mixed Equipage Operations in the Same Airspace

This study used a human-in-the-loop simulation to examine the feasibility of mixed equipage operations in an automated separation assurance environment under higher traffic densities. The study involved two aircraft equipage alternatives - with and without data link- and four traffic conditions. In all traffic conditions the unequipped traffic count was increased linearly throughout the scenario from approximately 5 to 20 aircraft. Condition One consisted solely of this unequipped traffic, while the remaining three conditions also included a constant number of equipped aircraft operating within the same airspace: 15 equipped aircraft in condition two, 30 in condition three, and 45 in condition four. If traffic load became excessive during any run, participants were instructed to refuse sector entry to inbound unequipped aircraft until sector load became manageable. Results showed a progressively higher number of unequipped aircraft turned away under the second, third, and fourth scenario conditions. Controller workload also increased progressively. Participants rated the mixed operations concept as acceptable, with some qualifications about procedures and information displays. These results showed that mixed operations might be feasible in the same airspace, if unequipped aircraft count is held to a workable level. This level will decrease with increasing complexity. The results imply that integrated airspace configuration is feasible to a limit. The results also indicate that the conflict detection and resolution automation, equipage, and traffic density are important factors that will need to be considered for airspace configuration.

Kopardekar, Parimal

A Cognitive System Model for Human/Automation Dynamics in Airspace Management

NASA has initiated a significant thrust of research and development focused on providing the flight crew and air traffic managers automation aids to increase capacity in en route and terminal area operations through the use of flexible, more fuel-efficient routing, while improving the level of safety in commercial carrier operations. In that system development, definition of cognitive requirements for integrated multi-operator dynamic aiding systems is fundamental. In order to support that cognitive function definition, we have extended the Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems) operating aircraft, airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The MIDAS operator models have undergone significant development in order to understand the requirements for operator aiding and the impact of that aiding in the complex nondeterminate system of national airspace operations. The operator model's structure has been modified to include attention functions, action priority, and situation assessment. The cognitive function model has been expanded to include working memory operations including retrieval from long-term store, interference, visual-motor and verbal articulatory loop functions, and time-based losses. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. The model's internal representation has been be modified so that multiple, autonomous sets of equipment will function in a scenario as the single equipment sets do now. In order to support the analysis requirements with multiple items of equipment, it is necessary for equipment to access the state of other equipment objects at initialization time (a radar object may need to access the position and speed of aircraft in its area, for example), and as a function of perception and sensor system interaction. The model has been improved to include multiple world-states as a function of equipment am operator interaction. The model has been used -1o predict the impact of warning and alert zones in aircraft operation, and, more critic-ally, the interaction of flight-deck based warning mechanisms and air traffic controller action in response to ground-based conflict prediction and alerting systems. In this operation, two operating systems provide alerting to two autonomous, but linked sets of operators, whose view of the system and whose dynamics in response are radically different. System stability and operator action was predicted using the MIDAS model.

Corker, Kevin M.

Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of Midterm UAM Operations: Class C Airspace Tabletop Exercise and Integration Checkpoint

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is conducting research into evolving today’s air traffic management system towards a more automated and operationally flexible airspace to accommodate Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale. UAM operations, enabled by electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft, may change the role of aviation in the movement of people and goods and provide practical, cost-effective air transport in metropolitan areas. FAA UAM Concept of Operations v2.0 describes three evolutionary stages of UAM operations: Initial, Midterm, and Mature State operations. Midterm operations are comprised of many complex changes to the national airspace system (NAS). The Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) was created as a capability to address the need to study the progression and identify interdependencies of those changes that may occur during the midterm UAM operations timeframe. The OIA includes a series of tabletop exercises and integration checkpoints planned to explore various use cases from end-to-end, evaluated by NASA’s Air Traffic Management eXploration (ATM-X) project in partnership with the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC) and industry partners. The use cases were exercised in an immersive, integrated live-virtual-constructive (LVC) airspace simulation environment, called the NASA/FAA Laboratory Integrated Test Environment (NFLITE), as part of an effort to learn how UAM operations can scale beyond the as-is NAS and through the transition to higher-tempo and highly automated operations of the future. This document describes the events of the tabletop exercise held from January 24-26, 2023, at the National Airspace Research & Technology Park (NARTP) in Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey, adjacent to the WJHTC and the subsequent integration checkpoint performed on March 28, 2023,at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in Hampton, Virginia.

UAM

A Concept of Operations (ConOps) of an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

The growth of new emerging operations involving Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) necessitates developing a perspective for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). This perspective advances from the National Academies report on IASMS and its recommendation for developing a Concept of Operations (ConOps) for IASMS. A ConOps has been developed for In-time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) from which the IASMS ConOps pivots to provide a robust scope commensurate with the broad vision defined by the National Academies. The IASMS ConOps focuses on emerging operations and spans innovations in Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) and an increasingly complex ecosystem comprised of a widening mix of vehicles and technologies, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) with industry-federated services, traditional operations, as well as new supersonic aircraft and space launch systems.The challenge for the IASMS ConOps is to be broad to encompass innovations in the coming years and decades while agile to ensure levels of safety compatible with operational and certification requirements of the National Airspace System (NAS). The IASMS ConOps interweaves increasing complexity of operational safety capabilities and unlocking UAS Maturity Levels (UMLs). The relationships between increased complexity of automation and automated systems, fewer operators who are not as traditionally higher skilled, more complex operational environments, and aviation operations management with mixed aircraft and equipage pose a multi-dimensional space for IASMS capabilities essential for safety assurance and risk management. Instantiating IASMS capabilities and how they would be integral to AAM operations and increasing maturity of UAM could be accomplished through a series of Safety Demonstrators. These Safety Demonstrators could provide increased understanding and insight into use of controls for risk mitigation, means of compliance for certification, and operational experience with safety services such as in relation to contingency management. The IASMS capabilities can be viewed as initially residing with the vehicle, airspace, and Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP). For example, vehicle capabilities include communications including the command and control link, Remote Identification (ID), conflict advisory/alerting, and UAS system monitoring. These capabilities monitor and assess data such as battery health, aircraft state, and human performance. Complexity of ISAMS capabilities depends on a number of factors. These factors are intendedonly as a notional categorization with the purpose being to reflect the complexity of the AAM ecosystem that would drive up the complexity of ISSA capabilities including systems, sensors, models, standards, and controls. Factors could include the Vehicle Flight Management, Environment, Airspace, and Contingency Management. Each of these factors can be comprised of multiple sub-factors that contribute to increasing complexity. For example, Airspace at a lower level of complexity could be dedicated to UTM operations that are unmonitored, and at a higher level of complexity could involve mixed UTM and ATM operations. The IASMS concept includes safety services that provide data and information to different participants in AAM. The roles and responsibilities of participants can be defined using the Responsible-Accountable-Consulted-Informed (RACI) analysis. For example, for the safety service involving the Remote ID, the Operator would be accountable for providing the data, the Vehicle would be responsible for transmitting it, and the USS, SDSP, Vertiports, FIMS (FAA), and Public Entities such as safety services would be informed by receiving the data. The IASMS ConOps identifies the capabilities needed for risk mitigation and safety assurance in the increasingly complex national airspace. The ConOps serves as a pathway for engaging with industry to gain operational experience including through the Safety Demonstrator series, the RACI analysis, and operational complexity factors. The ConOps serves to integrate these different perspectives to build a cohesive and cogent approach to an AAM safety management system.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

Structure, Intent and Conformance Monitoring in ATC

Infield studies of current Air Traffic Control operations it is found that controllers rely on underlying airspace structure to reduce the complexity of the planning and conformance monitoring tasks. The structure appears to influence the controller's working mental model through abstractions that reduce the apparent cognitive complexity. These structure-based abstractions are useful for the controller's key tasks of planning, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating tactical situations. In addition, the structure-based abstractions appear to be important in the maintenance of Situation Awareness. The process of conformance monitoring is analyzed in more detail and an approach to conformance monitoring which utilizes both the structure-based abstractions and intent is presented.

Reynolds, Tom G.

National Campaign (NC)-1 Strategic Conflict Management Simulation (X4) Final Report

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. UAM is a subset of the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) concept under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and industry. The Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) Simulation, dubbed “X4”, was conducted between July 2021 and June 2022 by NASA with the FAA and industry to evolve the Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) that will be needed to ensure initial UAM operations can scale in the National Airspace System (NAS). The FAA UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps) v1 [1] served as an initial guiding document for the X4 airspace management system design to ensure the architecture supports testing of services provided by third-party service providers. To that end, the X4 architecture leveraged concepts and technologies developed for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) while also developing and testing new capabilities and services needed for UAM. The architecture included an initial prototype of the FAA-Industry Exchange Protocol (FIDXP), third-party services such as the PSUs, and Discovery and Synchronization Service (DSS), and other new services such as Demand-Capacity Balancing (DCB) to facilitate UAM strategic conflict management. During X4, NASA led discussions and collaborated with seven industry airspace partners to develop initial airspace management concepts for UAM that drove what would be tested and evaluated during the simulations. The initial capabilities defined for PSU leveraged UTM UAS Service Supplier (USS) as a starting point and evolved to meet UAM requirements. These discussions were also an opportunity for NASA to collaborate with industry to develop a set of initial Community-Based Rules (CBRs). These CBRs enabled how UAM traffic would be cooperatively managed among UAM operators. The collaborative, iterative process of developing CBRs with industry during X4 provided insight into the challenges involved and identified the need for a suitable and effective forum for future CBR development. In parallel with these discussions, NASA conducted a series of seven software sprints and two collaborative simulations with the airspace partners that built up in complexity. Over the course of the year, all seven partners successfully completed all the sprints by demonstrating the required capabilities. They also participated in the two collaborative simulations to demonstrate how multiple PSUs could work together in a collaborative, more complex environment with higher traffic density. The X4 simulation accomplished NASA's objectives and helped advance the development of the seven participating PSUs. The lessons learned provided insight into key elements of the UAM Notional Architecture from the FAA ConOps v1 [1] and UTM technologies when applied to UAM: - Having a Concept of Use (ConUse) defined prior to the activity would accelerate the time and effort from concept development to testing. - While the UAM Notional Architecture provided a starting point for a federated architecture that support services provided by third-party providers, the USS and PSU differed in their capability definitions for operational intent submission and sharing, conformance monitoring, airspace authorization, strategic conflict management, airspace constraints and dynamic replanning. - While existing DSS developed for UTM provided a way for PSU and other UAM services (such as DCB) to discover relevant operations from each other, additional complexity and challenges were found during X4 testing and illuminated the need for a more suitable solution for UAM. Industry can leverage the results of this demonstration to accelerate UAM requirements, CBRs, and standards development. The FAA and other government municipalities and agencies will be able to leverage results to inform future policies and identify additional gaps that require further analysis, moving toward operationalization of UAM.

Urban Air Mobility

An in-Time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System

The National Airspace System (NAS) is growing in complexity of aircraft, missions, and operations. In response, many organizations have published papers and concepts of operations (ConOps) for new and enhanced safety systems. The National Academies’ vision for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is integral to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) modernization efforts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is conducting safety research, exploring solutions, and defining the safety needs of future missions, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and autonomous aircraft operating in a more connected, flexible, and dynamic airspace. IASMS enables and provides a path for bringing FAA’s operational vision to fruition through increasingly automated safety systems that integrate services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs). These SFCs provide the necessary responsiveness to monitor, assess, and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks. This paper describes how safety in today’s air transportation system will need to evolve, identifies key points regarding in-time safety, and explores the criticality of IASMS in the future NAS.

IASMS

An In-time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System​

The National Airspace System (NAS) is growing in complexity of aircraft, missions, and operations. In response, many organizations have published papers and concepts of operations (ConOps) for new and enhanced safety systems. The National Academies’ vision for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is integral to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) modernization efforts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is conducting safety research, exploring solutions, and defining the safety needs of future missions, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and autonomous aircraft operating in a more connected, flexible, and dynamic airspace. IASMS enables and provides a path for bringing FAA’s operational vision to fruition through increasingly automated safety systems that integrate services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs). These SFCs provide the necessary responsiveness to monitor, assess, and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks. This paper describes how safety in today’s air transportation system will need to evolve, identifies key points regarding in-time safety, and explores the criticality of IASMS in the future NAS.

Airspace

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay with Weather

The interaction of partitioning the airspace and delaying flights in the presence of convective weather is explored to study how re-partitioning the airspace can help reduce congestion and delay. Three approaches with varying complexities are employed to compute the ground delays.In the first approach, an airspace partition of 335 high-altitude sectors that is based on clear weather day traffic is used. Routes are then created to avoid regions of convective weather. With traffic flow management, this approach establishes the baseline with per-flight delay of 8.4 minutes. In the second approach, traffic flow management is used to select routes and assign departure delays such that only the airport capacity constraints are met. This results in 6.7 minutes of average departure delay. The airspace is then partitioned with a specific capacity. It is shown that airspace-capacity-induced delay can be reduced to zero ata cost of 20percent more sectors for the examined scenario.

Lee, Hak-Tae

Complexity Analysis of Traffic in Corridors-in-the-Sky

The corridors-in-the-sky concept imitates the highway system in ground transportation. The benefit expected from a corridor relies on its capability of handling high density traffic with negligible controller workload, the acceptance of extra fuel or distance, and the complexity reduction in underlying sectors. This work evaluates a selected corridor from these perspectives through simulations. To examine traffic inside the corridor, a corridor traffic simulation tool that can resolve conflicts is developed using C language. Prescribed conflict resolution maneuvers mimic corridor users behaviors and conflict resolution counts measure complexity. Different lane options and operational policies are proposed to examine their impacts on complexity. Fuel consumption is calculated and compared for corridor traffic. On the other hand, to investigate the complexity of non-corridor traffic in underlying sectors, the existing Airspace Concept Evaluation System tool is utilized along with the Automated Airspace Concept tool. The number of conflict resolutions is examined and treated as the complexity measurement. The results show heavy traffic can be managed with low complexity for a historical traffic schedule simulated with appropriate operational policies and lane options. For instance, with 608 flights and peak aircraft count of 100, only 84 actions need to be taken in a 24-hour period to resolve the conflicts for an 8-lane corridor. Compared with the fuel consumptions with great circle trajectories, the simulation of corridor traffic shows that the total extra fuel for corridor flights is 26,373 gallons, or 2.76%, which is 0.38% less than flying filed flight plans. Without taking climb and descent portions of corridor traffic, the complexity of underlying sectors is reduced by 17.71%. However the climb and descent portions will eliminate the reduction and the overall complexity of sectors is actually increased by 9.14%.

Xue, Min

Future Airspace Operations: UTM-Inspired Air Traffic Management

We need to prepare airspace system to accommodate diversity, density and complexity of future operations. Current system will reach its peak due to use of old technology and human-in-the-loop nature to accommodate new entrants. Talk will focus on how an ATM system can be made ready to meet the future needs. Author will discuss a number of lessons based on Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) could be leveraged to prepare for future.

future airspace operations

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility