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At least 91 records · Page 5

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A level-of-details framework for representing occupant behavior in agent-based models

We report agent-based modeling is an advanced computational technique capable of representing complex and dynamic processes of human behavior in building performance simulation. Though the agent-based approach supports diverse applications concerning human behavior modeling within the built environment, there is no consensus on the optimal amount of information or level of granularity needed for occupant information representation. This paper attempts to formalize the level of details (LoD) needed for occupant behavior representation in agent-based environments. A novel framework, grounded on the concept of LoD, is proposed to select the required details in representing occupants in agent-based models. Ten attributes related to occupants' presence, movement, behavioral processes, and repertoire are considered to define the LoD. The framework identifies use case parameters as the guiding principle and allows a hybrid approach for selecting varying degrees of occupant attributes to serve the purpose of simulation. A discussion on the pertinence of different occupant behavior LoDs in relation to the desired objective and simulation context is also presented. The study intends to support the occupant behavior research by advancing agent-based occupant modeling in building performance simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A system of shared autonomous vehicles for Chicago: Understanding the effects of geofencing the service

With autonomous vehicles (AVs) still in the testing phase, researchers and planners must resort to simulation techniques to explore possible futures regarding shared and automated mobility. An agent-based discrete-event transport simulator, POLARIS, is used in this study to simulate travel in the 20-county Chicago region with a shared AV (SAV) mobility option. Using this framework, the effect of an SAV fleet on system performance when constrained to serve within geofences is studied under four distinct scenarios: service restricted to the city, to the city plus suburban core, to the core plus exurban areas, and to the entire region — along with the choice of dynamic ridesharing (DRS) versus solo travel in an SAV. Results indicate that service areas need a balanced mix of trip generators and attractors, and an SAV fleet’s empty VMT (eVMT) can be noticeably reduced through suitable geofencing and DRS. Geofences can also help lower response times, reduce systemwide VMT across all modes, and ensure uniform access to SAVs. DRS is most useful in lowering VMT and %eVMT that arises from sprawled land development, but with insufficient demand to share rides, savings from the use of geofences is higher. Geofences targeting neighborhoods with high trip density bring about low response times and %eVMT, but fleet sizes in these regions need to be designed for uniformly low response times throughout a large region, as opposed to maximizing vehicle use in a 24-hour day.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The synergy between stakeholders for cellulosic biofuel development: Perspectives, opportunities, and barriers

While understanding individual stakeholders' perspectives on the adoption and conversion to a biofuel-based landscape has been a subject of many previous studies on biofuels, there has been relatively little attention given to understanding how the interaction between multiple stakeholders involved in biofuel development could influence the widespread adoption of biofuel production. Here, this paper analyzes the key stakeholder interactions utilizing various data sources including survey results, social media posts, and empirical and theoretical analyses. An intensive review is conducted for a number of surveys and research papers on different aspects of biofuel development such as land use choices, biorefinery and transportation, infrastructure development, consumer priorities, environmental impacts, etc. Following that, a stakeholder synergy approach is applied to synthesizing typical responses of stakeholders, such as producers, consumers, biorefineries, rural communities, and the government, and discussing how their responses influence each other's decisions and the overall system performance. Based on the findings of inadequate stakeholder synergy, it is recommended that new surveys and further research should be conducted to understand why synergy between stakeholders in biofuel development is absent. Additionally, this paper provides research perspectives, including (1) applying cutting-edge text-mining techniques to conduct sentiment analysis, and research and public attention analysis; (2) using an agent-based model to simulate stakeholder interactions and understand the factors that influence stakeholder synergy and the emergence of a bioeconomy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Genetic programming for understanding cognitive biases that generate polarization in social networks

Recent studies have applied agent-based models to infer human-interpretable explanations of individual-scale behaviors that generate macro-scale patterns in complex social systems. Genetic programming has proven to be an ideal explainable AI tool for this purpose, where primitives may be expressed in an interpretable fashion and assembled into agent rules. Evolutionary model discovery (EMD) is a tool that combines genetic programming and random forest feature importance analysis, to infer individual-scale, human-interpretable explanations from agent-based models. We deploy EMD to investigate the cognitive biases behind the emergence of ideological polarization within a population. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a social network, where agents are able to create or sever links with one another, and update an internal ideological stance based on their neighbors' stances. Agent rules govern these actions and constitute of cognitive biases. A set of 7 cognitive biases are included as genetic program primitives in the search for rules that generate hyper-polarization among the population of agents. We find that heterogeneity in cognitive biases is more likely to generate polarized social networks. Highly polarized social networks are likely to emerge when individuals with confirmation bias are exposed to those with either attentional bias, egocentric bias, or cognitive dissonance.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗

An integrated transportation-power system model for a decarbonizing world

Rising demand for electricity from electric vehicles (EVs) will require new paradigms to guarantee reliable and low-cost electricity. This study couples an agent-based travel demand simulator and an electricity grid model to assess the economic costs of supplying power to meet EVs' added demand across the Chicago region. Results suggest that shifting from personal EVs to a fleet of shared, fully-automated all-electric vehicles (SAEVs) could lower per-mile emissions, congestion, and embodied vehicle and charging infrastructure emissions. Further, the results should compel policymakers to shift the cost of providing power onto commercial customers, like electric ride-hail fleets, through price-indexed electricity prices, which can shift charging to off-peak periods or away from resource-scarce hours.

Integrated modeling↗

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Designing a drone delivery network with automated battery swapping machines

Drones are projected to alter last-mile delivery, but their short travel range is a concern. In this study, we propose a drone delivery network design using automated battery swapping machines (ABSMs) to extend ranges. The design minimizes the long-term delivery costs, including ABSM investment, drone ownership, and cost of the delivery time, and locates ABSMs to serve a set of customers. We build a mixed-integer nonlinear program that captures the nonlinear waiting time of drones at ABSMs. To solve the problem, we create an exact solution algorithm that finds the globally optimal solution using a derivative-supported cutting-plane method. To validate the applicability of our program, we conduct a case study on the Chicago Metropolitan area using cost data from leading ABSM manufacturer and geographical data from the planning and operations language for agent-based regional integrated simulation (more commonly known as POLARIS). A sensitivity analysis identifies that ABSM service times and costs are the key parameters impacting the long-term adoption of drone delivery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SuperNeuroABM

A GPU-based multi-agent simulation framework for neuromorphic computing

Gunaratne, Chathika [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL↗

Community-Based Transactive Coordination Mechanism for Enabling Grid Edge Systems

The changing landscape of the electricity industry, characterized by a surge in distributed energy resources (DERs) and proactive customers, necessitates practical solutions for coordinated operations especially at the distribution-level. This paper introduces a community-based transactive coordination mechanism designed to incentivize customers for providing localized and system-level services reflected through real-time prices. The work presents a bidding approach for communities with DERs, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), to formulate their price-responsiveness for retail energy coordination, emphasizing a community-centric model. By sending bidding curves to a third-party, the mechanism enables customers with DER assets to actively participate in localized coordination with the load serving entity (LSE), thereby supplementing each other’s and even the utilities needs through a shared energy economy. The proposed transactive mechanism is implemented leveraging a co-simulation framework that integrates a distribution grid simulator and Python-based agents for performance evaluation. Collaboration with a local utility to access real distribution feeder models and consumption profiles yields simulation results demonstrating the potential to reduce costs by 12\% for communities with DERs like PV and BESS.

Community-based coordination, grid-edge systems, R↗

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has long term goals to develop solutions for managing the nation’s spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) inventory. The Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the DOE office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is employing system-level engineering and analysis principles to inform potential future waste management system architectures. Managing the spent nuclear waste requires the use of system-level analysis software that takes various aspects of the fuel cycle into account like waste generation, on-site/centralized storage, transportation infrastructure, and long-term disposal. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based model that was developed to simulate the transportation and storage of SNF and HLW. As an agent-based model, NGSAM has the capability to detail the interaction and movement of individual components and groups, such as rail cars and casks. The SNF inventory from commercial nuclear reactors is currently in temporary storage at multiple locations spread across the United States. Shipping of SNF from these locations relies on one of three transportation modes: rail, heavy-haul truck, or barge. Out of the three modes identified, rail is generally the most preferred due to the size of the canisters and casks the SNF would be shipped in. However, under some scenarios, a direct rail route might not be readily available to a reactor site or improving the rail infrastructure at shutdown sites might be too cost-prohibitive for utilities to opt for a direct rail transfer. Under such scenarios, using a barge or heavy haul truck to de-inventory the site and transfer the SNF to a nearby intermodal transfer site with adequate rail infrastructure where the payload could be transferred to a rail car might prove to be an attractive option. This work initially presents the various intermodal transportation options that could be used to transfer SNF from reactor sites to rail cars. This is followed by exploring the operational steps in each of these modes to move the SNF from a reactor site and transfer it to a rail car. This work also presents the procedure of implementing the intermodal transfer methodology in NGSAM using various Java methods. Finally, the process times for accomplishing each of the individual steps are furnished. The implementation ideology, assumptions, and future steps are presented in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model

Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission within a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental models to ensure that introducing additional disease states does not prevent the emergence of multiple waves in these simpler models. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavior change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory in compartmental models. In EpiCast, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗

Nested active learning for efficient model contextualization and parameterization: pathway to generating simulated populations using multi-scale computational models

There is increasing interest in the use of mechanism-based multi-scale computational models (such as agent-based models (ABMs)) to generate simulated clinical populations in order to discover and evaluate potential diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The description of the environment in which a biomedical simulation operates (model context) and parameterization of internal model rules (model content) requires the optimization of a large number of free parameters. In this work, we utilize a nested active learning (AL) workflow to efficiently parameterize and contextualize an ABM of systemic inflammation used to examine sepsis. Contextual parameter space was examined using four parameters external to the model’s rule set. The model’s internal parameterization, which represents gene expression and associated cellular behaviors, was explored through the augmentation or inhibition of signaling pathways for 12 signaling mediators associated with inflammation and wound healing. We have implemented a nested AL approach in which the clinically relevant (CR) model environment space for a given internal model parameterization is mapped using a small Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The outer AL level workflow is a larger ANN that uses AL to efficiently regress the volume and centroid location of the CR space given by a single internal parameterization. We have reduced the number of simulations required to efficiently map the CR parameter space of this model by approximately 99%. In addition, we have shown that more complex models with a larger number of variables may expect further improvements in efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗