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elm-diagnostics

elm-diagnostics is a Python package for computing diagnostic analyses and visualizations for the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component and is meant to support new feature development in ELM. The tool reads model history files and performs quantitative analyses including budget-closure checking, variable transformations, temporal aggregations, and statistical summaries to support model evaluation, validation, and scientific interpretation. The framework is designed for extensibility, with modular architecture enabling straightforward addition of new diagnostic methods, derived variables, analysis types, visualization approaches, and model-specific adaptations

Hoffman, Matt [Los Alamos National Laboratory]↗

Confocal Raman Microscopy as a Probe of Material Deconstruction in Processed Low-Density Polyethylene Particles

Confocal Raman microscopy was applied to detect structural change within individual particles of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) following chemical and electrochemical processing steps that aimed to facilitate material decomposition. A high numerical aperture (NA) oil-immersion objective enabled depth-profiling through the near surface region (20 μm–40 μm) of irregularly shaped particles with an axial spatial resolution < 2 μm estimated from measurements of instrument detection efficiency profiles. Changes in vibrational bands sensitive to polyethylene crystallinity were evident following treatments and linked to the release of low molecular weight compounds present as additives and products of processing. Effects of processing were probed by monitoring the rise of Raman scattering intensity in vibrational modes associated with polyethylene chains in a zig-zag (trans) conformation near 1128 cm –1 , 1294 cm –1 , and 1418 cm –1 , signaling chain clustering and development of organized, crystalline-like assemblies. Pristine LDPE particles displayed a uniform structure across the near surface region, while particles treated initially with chemical extractant and then further processed displayed increasingly enhanced crystallinity up to the maximum depth probed (40 μm). As a step toward measurements on ensembles of particles, least squares modeling was adapted to derive pure component spectra reflecting crystallinity change within spectral datasets. The work demonstrates high spatial resolution Raman depth-profiling for the characterization of processed polymers using a high NA immersion objective to overcome the limitations of air-objectives often used for confocal Raman microscopy.

Wahiduzzaman, Md. [Department of Chemistry and Bio↗

Adapting Code Verification Methodology to Model Form

Code verification is an essential part of credibility analysis for computational models. It assesses whether the mathematical model is implemented correctly into the code and whether the numerical methods behave consistently, and is done before solution verification and validation. Robust guidance for code verification exists in the literature. However, there is no known, concise guide for selecting the approach based on the model form that also presents an overview of the common elements. This document was written to address this gap as an accessible reference for beginning a code-verification effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Selective mass scaling for single-layer thick shell elements in DYNA3D

Hexahedral elements can be adapted to model thin and moderately thick structures by neglecting the coupling of through-thickness stress, resulting in a fully three-dimensional, but simplified, state of stress. These specialized elements, often referred to as “thick” or “solid” shells, are generally employed to model thin-walled structures using continuum mechanics-based material models. In explicit dynamics simulations, where computational speed is important, these elements are integrated with a single quadrature point and a set of anti-hourglassing (stabilizing) forces. Thick shells, by definition, have a thickness dimension smaller than their in-plane dimensions, and this small thickness often determines the stable time step size in simulations, despite the mechanics being approximated. To alleviate this limitation while retaining the relevant dynamics of thin-walled structures, selective mass scaling (SMS), or selective mass “augmentation,” has been proposed in the literature. In this technical report, we explore the application of SMS to single-layer thick shells in the simulation software DYNA3D.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

mosartwmpy sample input data; 1980 - 1985

Sample input data spanning the years 1980-1985 for running the `mosartwmpy` water routing and management model: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/mosartwmpy. More information is available in the README.md. Changelog: v0.0.8: Update with new CAP_MIN reservoir parameter, corresponds with mosartwmpy v1.0.0 v0.0.7: new reservoir files with corrected locations based on an exhaustive review by Dan Broman for the 9505 project; corresponding long term mean demand and flow files updated based on VIC4 simulations using Daymet forcing. v0.0.6: updates reservoir parameters to indicate which reservoirs should follow generic operating rules and which should follow ISTARF data-driven operating rules. v0.0.5: adds supporting files for running the Farmer Agent Based Model of adaptive water demand.

Bracken, Cameron [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

Adaptive Grid Redistribution for a 1D Model of Turbulence and Clouds

In global atmospheric models, resolving stratocumulus (Sc) in the vertical is computationally expensive. However, Sc appear only under special meteorological conditions. Therefore, there is motivation to refine the vertical grid levels adaptively. In order to facilitate the possibility of parallelization on graphical processing units, our grid adaptation method prescribes the number of vertical levels a priori. Then grid levels are relocated toward altitude ranges in need of refinement. Because the method relocates existing grid levels, rather than adding extra levels, there is a risk of creating regions with overly coarse grid spacing, that is, voids in the grid mesh. To prevent such voids from forming, a simple method is developed to impose a maximum grid spacing. To decide where to place enhanced resolution, the authors develop an empirical mesh refinement criterion. It refines grid spacing near the ground, near strong temperature gradients, and within clouds. Our grid adaptation method is implemented in a single-column model and evaluated on four test cases: decaying stratocumulus, developing shallow cumulus, a quasi-stationary stratocumulus deck, and the diurnal cycle of a dry boundary layer. In the stratocumulus cases, mesh refinement leads to improvements in both the time evolution of fields and their time averages. The other two cases show smaller differences.

Carstensen, Steffen [Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee↗

Comparison Study of Conventional and Adaptive Mesh Refinement in Organic Material Decomposition Models

This study compares conventional mesh refinement techniques, specifically Uniform Mesh Refinement (UMR), with a new Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) method, applied to Organic Material Decomposition (OMD) models. The proposed benefit of AMR is that only areas that require refinement, based on minimizing a specific field gradient, are refined thus decreasing model wall time compared to conventional UMR methods. This work specifically focuses on comparing UMR and AMR methods on decomposing (both No-Flow and Porous-Flow material models) Polymeric Methylene Diisocyanate (PMDI) polyurethane foam. Throughout the work, the geometry increased in complexity to assess the refinement methods performance at varying levels geometric intricacy. While AMR has been shown to work well in a variety of applications, the UMR approach proved to be computationally faster, for many of the geometries and foam decomposition models, than AMR. However, it was observed that at higher levels of refinement, greater than 3 UMR, AMR begins to be computationally better. Additionally, the settings used to perform AMR greatly impact its performance, and lessons learned, in terms of OMD models, are shared. Due to physics involved in material decomposition, specifically the evolution of state variables, these problems don’t fully benefit from the advantages of AMR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deep Learning-Based Dynamic Modeling of Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters

Inverter-based resource (IBR) models are necessary to analyze modern power system stability and create effective control strategies. Modeling IBRs in converter-rich power systems is crucial, yet challenging due to the lack of commercial information on converter topologies and control parameters. This paper proposes novel convolutional neural network (CNN)–based data-driven techniques for modeling IBRs, addressing adaptability and proprietary concerns without requiring internal system physics knowledge. The proposed method is tested using real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data and demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy. Furthermore, the developed modeling approach is integrated and implemented in the open-source power distribution simulation and analysis tool, GridLAB-D, to illustrate the potentiality of dynamic analysis of large-scale power systems with high IBRs.

deep learning, artificial intelligence↗

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Deep-learning-based domain adaptation for cavity fault prediction at Jefferson Laboratory

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are the core components of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab, providing high-power electron beams for nuclear physics experiments. The facility comprises 418 SRF cavities, and any fault in these cavities can lead to interruptions in the electron beam supply. Cavity faults are the leading cause of beam trips in CEBAF. Predicting and mitigating those faults before onset can help maintain normal operation. Existing models face challenges in distinguishing between normal and fault signals when changes occur in the underlying time-series data, from changes in control software, operational parameters, or the environment. This work proposes a deep learning domain adaptation model that leverages transfer learning to address fault prediction challenges by improving accuracy. The model is trained and fine-tuned using a dataset collected for faulty and normal operation using a data acquisition system in CEBAF. Our deep learning-based domain adaptation model achieves a prediction accuracy of 89.61% of the fault and normal signals. The developed model effectively predicts normal running signals compared to the baseline approach without domain adaptation. This capacity is essential for the fault prediction task in the CEBAF because of heavily imbalanced data containing vast amounts of normal signals. The model performs well for predicting faults several hundred milliseconds before the fault onset compared to other models where no adaptation is applied. Incorporating deep learning-based domain adaptation techniques will significantly improve the fault prediction performance.

Rahman, Md Monibor [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, V↗

Point cloud-based diffusion models for the Electron-Ion Collider

At high-energy collider experiments, generative models can be used for a wide range of tasks, including fast detector simulations, unfolding, searches of physics beyond the Standard Model, and inference tasks. In particular, it has been demonstrated that score-based diffusion models can generate high-fidelity and accurate samples of jets or collider events. This work expands on previous generative models in three distinct ways. First, our model is trained to generate entire collider events, including all particle species with complete kinematic information. We quantify how well the model learns event-wide constraints such as the conservation of momentum and discrete quantum numbers. We focus on the events at the future Electron-Ion Collider, but we expect that our results can be extended to proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. Second, previous generative models often relied on image-based techniques. The sparsity of the data can negatively affect the fidelity and sampling time of the model. We address these issues using point clouds and a novel architecture combining edge creation with transformer modules called Point Edge Transformers. Third, we adapt the foundation model OmniLearn, to generate full collider events. This approach may indicate a transition toward adapting and fine-tuning foundation models for downstream tasks instead of training new models from scratch.

Araz, Jack Y. [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United State↗

Representing lateral groundwater flow from land to river in Earth system models

Lateral groundwater flow (LGF) is an important hydrologic process in controlling water table dynamics. Due to the relatively coarse spatial resolutions of land surface models, the representation of this process is often overlooked or overly simplified. In this study, we developed a hillslope-based lateral groundwater flow model. Specifically, we first developed a hillslope definition model based on an existing watershed delineation model to represent the subgrid spatial variability in topography. Building upon this hillslope definition, we then developed a physical-based lateral groundwater flow using Darcy’s equation. This model explicitly considers the relationships between the groundwater table along the hillslope and the river water table levels. We coupled this intra-grid model to the land component (E3SM Land Model: ELM) and river component (MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Transport: MOSART) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We tested both the hillslope definition model and the lateral groundwater flow model and performed sensitivity experiments using different configurations. Simulations for a single grid cell at 0.5°×0.5° within the Amazon basin show that the definition of hillslope is the key to modeling lateral flow processes and the runoff partition between surface and subsurface can be dramatically changed using the hillslope approach. Although our method provides a pathway to improve the lateral flow process, future improvements are needed to better capture the subgrid structure to account for the spatial variability in hillslopes within the simulated grid of land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗

A novel transformation of the ice sheet Stokes equations and some of its properties and applications

We introduce a novel transformation of the Stokes equations into a form closely resembling the shallow Blatter–Pattyn equations. The two forms differ by only a few additional terms, while their variational formulations differ only by a single term in each horizontal direction. Specifically, the variational formulation of the Blatter–Pattyn model drops the vertical velocity in the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. Here we make use of the new transformation in two ways. First, we consider incorporating the transformed equations into a code that can be very easily converted from a Stokes to a Blatter–Pattyn model, and vice versa, by switching these terms on or off. This may be generalized so that the Stokes model is switched on adaptively only where the Blatter–Pattyn model loses accuracy. Second, the key role played by the vertical velocity in the Blatter–Pattyn approximation motivates new approximations. Two examples are presented. These require a mesh that enables the discrete continuity equation to be invertible for the vertical velocity in terms of the horizontal velocity components. Examples of such meshes, such as the first-order P1–E0 mesh and the second-order P2–E1 mesh, are given in both 2D and 3D. However, the transformed Stokes model has the same type of gravity forcing as the Blatter–Pattyn model, determined by the ice surface slope, thereby forgoing some of the mesh generality of the traditional formulation of the Stokes model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗