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At least 91 records · Page 5

Relative State Counting for Semiclassical Black Holes

It has been shown that entropy differences between certain states of perturbative quantum gravity can be computed without specifying an ultraviolet completion. This is analogous to the situation in classical statistical mechanics, where entropy differences are defined but absolute entropy is not. Unlike in classical statistical mechanics, however, the entropy differences computed in perturbative quantum gravity do not have a clear physical interpretation. Here we construct a family of perturbative black hole states for which the entropy difference can be interpreted as a relative counting of states. Conceptually, this Letter begins with the algebra of mass fluctuations around a fixed black hole background, and points out that while this is a type I algebra, it is not a factor and therefore has no canonical definition of entropy. As in previous work, coupling the mass fluctuations to quantum matter embeds the mass algebra within a type II factor, in which entropy differences (but not absolute entropies) are well defined. It is then shown that for microcanonical wave functions of mass fluctuation, the type II entropy difference equals the logarithm of the dimension of the extra Hilbert space that is needed to map one microcanonical window to another using gauge-invariant unitaries. The Letter closes with comments on type II entropy difference in a more general class of states, where the von Neumann entropy difference does not have a physical interpretation, but “one-shot” entropy differences do. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Akers, Chris (ORCID:0000000227929827)↗

Difficulties with late-time solutions for the Hubble tension

We explore the notion that cosmological models that modify the late-time expansion history cannot simultaneously fit the SH0ES Collaboration’s measurements of the Hubble constant, Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument baryon acoustic oscillations data, and type Ia supernova distances. Adopting a few simple phenomenological models, we quantitatively demonstrate that a satisfactory fit with a model with late-time expansion history can only be achieved if one of the following is true: (1) there is a sharp step in the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae at very low redshift, 𝑧 ∼0.01, or (2) the distance duality relation, 𝑑 𝐿 ⁡(𝑧) =(1+𝑧) 2 ⁢𝑑 𝐴 ⁡(𝑧), is broken. Both solutions are trivial in that they effectively decouple the calibrated type Ia supernovae measurements from other data, and this qualitatively agrees with previous work built on studying specific dark-energy models. We also identify a less effective class of late-time solutions with a transition at 𝑧 ≃0.15 that lead to a more modest improvement in fit to the data than models with a very low-𝑧 transition. Our conclusions are largely unchanged when we include surface brightness fluctuation distance measurements, with their current systematic uncertainties, to our analysis. Here, we finally illustrate our findings by studying a physical model which, when equipped with the ability to smoothly change the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae, partially resolves the Hubble tension.

Cosmological parameters↗

New physics contamination to precision luminosity measurements at future 𝑒 +⁢ 𝑒 − colliders

Several key observables of the high-precision physics program at future lepton colliders will critically depend on the knowledge of the absolute machine luminosity. The determination of the luminosity relies on the precise knowledge of some reference process, which is, in principle, not affected by unknown physics, so that its cross section can be computed within a well-established theory, like the Standard Model. Quantifying the uncertainties induced by possible new physics effects on such processes is, therefore, crucial. We present an investigation of light and heavy new physics contributions to the small-angle Bhabha process at future 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − colliders, and we discuss possible strategies to remove the contamination due to heavy degrees of freedom by relying on observables that are independent of the absolute luminosity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

WE-Validate: An Open-Source Framework For Wind Power Validation

Grid operators rely on historical weather time series at existing and planned wind power plants to make informed decisions when planning for a future power grid with very high penetration of renewable power. While synthetic wind power time series have been developed based on historical weather models, their validation with actual power production data remains complex due to variations in modeling practices and methodologies. This paper introduces the WE-Validate framework, originally designed for wind speed validation and now enhanced for wind power validation with a graphical user interface to support users with minimal programming experience. Validation of wind power with WE-Validate is based on robust metrics consisting of RMSE, centered RMSE, average bias, average percent bias, mean absolute error, mean absolute percent error, cross correlation, and calculation of ramping magnitude, rate, and duration. This paper showcases WE-Validate with validation of synthetically derived power for a wind plant in Washington state for one month in 2018. Validation of the synthetic power from two comparison data sets compared with observations shows both comparison series have strong correlation with observed across weekly and monthly aggregations while suffering from persistent negative bias. The suite of metrics within WE-Validate facilitates immediate insight into the utility of the comparison data sets through compression across multiple axes. This user-friendly, open-source tool can be extended beyond wind power, making it a valuable resource for system planners and operators in different domains.

Moncheur de Rieudotte, Malcolm P.↗

WFSUITE: A PYTHON SOFTWARE SUITE FOR X-RAY WAVEFRONT SENDING AND AT-WAVELENGTH METROLOGY

SF-26-025 WFSuite is a graphical and command-line toolkit for coded-mask-based X-ray wavefront sensing and phase reconstruction at synchrotron beamlines. It integrates analysis tools for both relative and absolute speckle-based measurements. In the relative metrology module, WFSuite implements Wavelet-transform-based X-ray Speckle Tracking (WXST) and Wavelet-transform-based Speckle Vector Tracking (WSVT) methods to retrieve differential phase and wavefront distortions by comparing speckle patterns recorded with and without the test sample. In the absolute phase module, WFSuite uses coded-mask speckle patterns and replaces the measured reference with a numerically simulated one, enablingsingle-shot wavefront reconstruction using either WXST or a neural-network-based method (SPINNet).

Rebuffi, Luca [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), ↗

HighDimMixedModels.jl: Robust high-dimensional mixed-effects models across omics data

High-dimensional mixed-effects models are an increasingly important form of regression in which the number of covariates rivals or exceeds the number of samples, which are collected in groups or clusters. The penalized likelihood approach to fitting these models relies on a coordinate descent algorithm that lacks guarantees of convergence to a global optimum. Here, we empirically study the behavior of this algorithm on simulated and real examples of three types of data that are common in modern biology: transcriptome, genome-wide association, and microbiome data. Our simulations provide new insights into the algorithm’s behavior in these settings, and, comparing the performance of two popular penalties, we demonstrate that the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty consistently outperforms the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty in terms of both variable selection and estimation accuracy across omics data. To empower researchers in biology and other fields to fit models with the SCAD penalty, we implement the algorithm in a Julia package, HighDimMixedModels.jl .

Gorstein, Evan↗

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity calibration of a Carestream HPX-1 image plate scanner

There is a need to measure the sensitivity of the image plate scanners used to scan Z shot data. The Carestream HPX-1 image plate scanner was tested, and its performance was characterized to determine the system sensitivity in terms of signal per incident photon as a function of x-ray energy. A Manson source was used to simultaneously expose an Amptek x-ray multi-channel analyzer and image plates, allowing for a comparison of the counts as a function of energy to the signal recorded on the image plates. NIST-certified radioactive sources were used to assign an absolute sensitivity. Results indicate that the HPX-1 scanner response matches the shape of the modeled response, allowing for absolute scaling using NIST-certified radioisotope sources. The HPX-1 scanner shows a stable response with measurements taken over one week. In contrast, the sensitivity of the DITABIS scanner was characterized using the same approach, but it exhibits changes in its response that varied by more than 50% over the span of 4 days.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

White-Rabbit-Disciplined FPGA Readout for Fermilab Timing Events

Fermilab's accelerator timing links broadcast short event codes to thousands of devices at once, but the links themselves carry no absolute notion of time; that comes separately from a White Rabbit reference. This work builds the piece that ties the two together on a single board. On a Xilinx Kria KR260 (Zynq UltraScale+), the programmable logic decodes a real Fermilab TCLK link, stamps every event with an absolute White-Rabbit \{sec, ns\} UTC time, and reads the timestamped stream out over AXI4-Lite; a thin Linux process on the same die publishes each event into a Redis stream on the control network. To exercise the full chain on one board, the decoded events are re-encoded as gigabit ACLK, transmitted out an SFP+ optical port, looped back over a short fiber jumper, and decoded again on the same timeline, and are additionally mirrored as an ACLK-Lite Manchester waveform for benchtop probing. Across sustained, multi-day testing against real Fermilab TCLK, the pipeline has decoded, timestamped, and published hundreds of millions of events with practically zero loss, and folding the timestamped stream on the 60-second accelerator supercycle recovers the machine's periodic structure directly from the published data.

Rossel, Jacob [Fermilab; UC, Berkeley (main)] (ORC↗

New Thermochemical Salt Hydrate System for Energy Storage in Buildings

This paper introduces an innovative design for an “inorganic salt-expanded graphite” composite thermochemical system. The storage unit is made of a perforated, compressed, expanded graphite block impregnated with molten CaCl 2 ∙6H 2 O; the humid air passes through the holes that allow the moisture to diffuse and react with the salt. The prepared block underwent 90 hydration-dehydration cycles. Although most of the performed cycles were carried out with salt overhydration and deliquescence, the treated samples have remained mechanically and thermally stable with no drop in energy density. The volumetric energy density of the composite ranged from 135.5 to 277.6 kWh/m 3 , depending on airflow rate and absolute humidity. To ensure composite material cycling stability, the energy density of the block was measured during hydration at similar conditions of absolute humidity, inlet temperature, and airflow rate (0.01 kg water /kg air , 20 °C, 400 l/min). The average energy density at these conditions was sustained at 219 kWh/m 3 . The block integrity was monitored by visual inspection after removing it from the reactor chamber every few cycles. Both the composite material and its manufacturing process are simple and easy to scale up for future commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dead Fuel Moisture Content Reanalysis Dataset for California (2000–2020)

This study presents a novel reanalysis dataset of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) across California from 2000 to 2020 at a 2 km resolution. Utilizing a data assimilation system that integrates a simplified time-lag fuel moisture model with 10-h fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) allowed predictions of 10-h fuel moisture content by our method with a mean absolute error of 0.03 g/g compared to the widely used Nelson model, with a mean absolute error prediction of 0.05 g/g. For context, the values of DFMC in California are commonly between 0.05 g/g and 0.30 g/g. The presented product provides gridded hourly moisture estimates for 1-h, 10-h, 100-h, and 1000-h fuels, essential for analyzing historical fire activity and understanding climatological trends. The methodology presented here demonstrates significant advancements in the accuracy and robustness of fuel moisture estimates, which are critical for fire forecasting and management.

Farguell, Angel (ORCID:000000032395220X)↗

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

Neutron-induced capture-to-fission cross section ratio measured at LANSCE

Capture-to-fission cross section ratios are used as an alternative to absolute cross section measurements. This is due to the simplification on the calculations and the reduction of the uncertainties with respect to an absolute measurement of the cross section by eliminating experimental complications like self-absorption, beam/target overlap and non-uniformities. Different capture-to-fission reactions have been measured through the years at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) using the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments (DANCE) combined with different fission detectors. Some of these are a Parallel Plate Avalanche Counter (PPAC) to detect fission fragments (FF), and the NEUtron detector array at DANCE (NEUANCE) to detect fission neutrons. As DANCE detects the γ-rays produced in capture and fission reactions, the fission instrument placed inside the DANCE cavity is used to tag the fission γ-rays for background identification and subtraction. Some examples of capture-to-fission ratio measurements performed with DANCE in the last years are the 233 U, 235 U and 239 Pu. The measurement technique, the different setups, and other potential applications of the instruments will be explained.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗

Adaptive Control for Load-Following of Boiling Water Reactors Part I: Linear Systems and Fully-Observable Dynamics

Automation control is a key strategy to improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants. Not only does it help reduce operational costs, but it also extends the value proposition of these plants to nontraditional markets, including unattended operations in remote villages and space. However, the dynamics of the operating environments of nuclear reactors are subject to changes over time, and there are no widely adopted methods to ensure that the automation strategy will remain effective over the extended durations required for these applications. Adaptive control is a discipline that offers the possibility to accommodate such changes online. However, it relies on mathematical assumptions that must be respected to ensure robustness and reliability. In this work, we derive an adaptive control formulation for linear systems in which all states are observable and apply it to an instance of load-follow operation for Boiling Water Reactors. We assumed uncertainty in two factors: the temperature coefficient and the control rod worth, both of which are affected over time by the evolution of the nuclear reactor core environment. With an arbitrary penalty factor of 5, we found that the mean absolute and integral time absolute errors can be reduced by more than 90%, underscoring the strength of adaptive control. To extend the application to more challenges, different uncertainties and load-follow trajectories, as well as new formulations that include non-linearity and partial observability, are currently being developed.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Single-Board Fermilab Timing Pipeline on the Xilinx KR260: Decode, Timestamp, Publish, Mirror

Full-width abstract \renewcommand{\maketitlehookd}{% \begin{abstract} \noindent Fermilab's accelerator timing links broadcast short event codes to thousands of devices at once, but the links themselves carry no absolute notion of time; that comes separately from a White Rabbit reference. This work builds the piece that ties the two together on a single board. On a Xilinx Kria KR260 (Zynq UltraScale+), the programmable logic decodes a real Fermilab TCLK link, stamps every event with an absolute White-Rabbit \{sec, ns\} UTC time, and reads the timestamped stream out over AXI4-Lite; a thin Linux process on the same die publishes each event into a Redis stream on the control network. To exercise the full chain on one board, the decoded events are re-encoded as gigabit ACLK, transmitted out an SFP+ optical port, looped back over a short fiber jumper, and decoded again on the same timeline, and are additionally mirrored as an ACLK-Lite Manchester waveform for benchtop probing. Across sustained, multi-day testing against real Fermilab TCLK, the pipeline has decoded, timestamped, and published hundreds of millions of events with practically zero loss, and folding the timestamped stream on the 60-second accelerator supercycle recovers the machine's periodic structure directly from the published data.

Rossel, Jacob [UC, Berkeley; Fermilab] (ORCID:0009↗