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Results for “Weibull Distribution”

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NASA NTRS1988

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of oxidation on fatigue crack nucleation life

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Oshida, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Nisbet, John S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Hoffman, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Solar F10.7 radiation - A short term model for Space Station applications

A new method is described for statistically modeling the F10.7 component of solar radiation for 91-day intervals. The resulting model represents this component of the solar flux as a quasi-exponentially correlated, Weibull distributed random variable, and thereby demonstrates excellent agreement with observed F10.7 data. Values of the F10.7 flux are widely used in models of the earth's upper atmosphere because of its high correlation with density fluctuations due to solar heating effects. Because of the direct relation between atmospheric density and drag, a realistic model of the short term fluctuation of the F10.7 flux is important for the design and operation of Space Station Freedom. The method of modeling this flux described in this report should therefore be useful for a variety of Space Station applications.

Vedder, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A curved beam test specimen for determining the interlaminar tensile strength of a laminated composite

A curved beam type of test specimen is evaluated for use in determining the through-the-thickness strength of laminated composites. Two variations of a curved beam specimen configuration (semicircular and elliptical) were tested to failure using static and fatigue loads. The static failure load for the semicircular specimens was found to be highly sensitive to flaw content, with the specimens falling into two distinct groups. This result supports the use of proof testing for structural validation. Static design allowables are derived based on the Weibull distribution. Fatigue data indicates no measured increase in specimen compliance prior to final fracture. All static and fatigue failures at room temperature dry conditions occurred catastrophically. The elliptical specimens demonstrated unusually high failure strengths indicating the presence of phenomena requiring further study. Results are also included for specimens exposed to a wet environment showing a matrix strength degradation due to moisture content. Further testing is underway to evaluate a fatigue methodology for matrix dominated failures based on residual static strength (wearout).

Hiel, Clement C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A curved beam test specimen for determining the interlaminar tensile strength of a laminated composite

A curved beam type of test specimen is evaluated for use in determining the through-the-thickness strength of laminated composites. Two variations of a curved beam specimen configuration (semi-circular and elliptical) were tested to failure using static and fatigue loads. The static failure load for the semi-circular specimens was found to be highly sensitive to flaw content, with the specimens falling into two distinct groups. This result supports the use of proof testing for structural validation. Static design allowables are derived based on the Weibull distribution. Fatigue data indicates no measured increase in specimen compliance prior to final fracture. All static and fatigue failures at room temperature dry conditions occurred catastrophically. The elliptical specimens demonstrated unusually high failure strengths indicating the presence of phenomena requiring further study. Results are also included for specimens exposed to a wet environment showing a matrix strength degradation due to moisture content. Further testing is under way to evaluate a fatigue methodology for matrix dominated failures based on residual static strength (wearout).

Hiel, Clement C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Spur, helical, and spiral bevel transmission life modeling

A computer program, TLIFE, which estimates the life, dynamic capacity, and reliability of aircraft transmissions, is presented. The program enables comparisons of transmission service life at the design stage for optimization. A variety of transmissions may be analyzed including: spur, helical, and spiral bevel reductions as well as series combinations of these reductions. The basic spur and helical reductions include: single mesh, compound, and parallel path plus revert star and planetary gear trains. A variety of straddle and overhung bearing configurations on the gear shafts are possible as is the use of a ring gear for the output. The spiral bevel reductions include single and dual input drives with arbitrary shaft angles. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been executed both in the personal computer DOS environment and on UNIX workstations. The analysis may be performed in either the SI metric or the English inch system of units. The reliability and life analysis is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the overall transmission and each constituent transmission, its components, and their locations, capacities, and loads. Primary output is the dynamic capacity and 90-percent reliability and mean lives of the unit transmissions and the overall system which can be used to estimate service overhaul frequency requirements. Two examples are presented to illustrate the information available for single element and series transmissions.

Savage, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1994

Shoemaker-Levy 9 and the tidal disruption of comets

The break-up of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into multiple pieces following its grazing encounter with Jupiter in July 1992 can be used to study tidally-induced fracture in comets. This spectacular event allows us not only to set limits on the size, strength and density of Shoemaker-Levy 9 itself, but provides invaluable guidance to numerical modeling of such encounters. In an extensive treatment of tidal breakup which assumed self-gravitating, homogeneous, perfectly elastic bodies, Dobrovolskis derived simple analytical expressions for the tidally-induced surface and central stresses. Both can be cast in such a way that Poisson's ratio is the only material dependent constant entering these expressions. Whether both surface and central failure must be initiated as a criterion for breakup, or either one of them is sufficient, remains a subject of disagreement. To resolve this debate, we model the details of cometary breakup using a three-dimensional Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code modified to simulate fracture in small solid objects. At lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution.

Benz, W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fatigue characterization of advanced carbon-carbon composites

Response of quasi-isotropic laminates of SiC coated Carbon-Carbon (C/C) composites under flexural fatigue are investigated at room temperature. Virgin as well as mission cycled specimens are tested to study the effects of thermal and pressure cycling on the fatigue performance of C/C. Tests were conducted in three point bending with a stress ratio of 0.2 and frequency of 1 Hz. Fatigue strength of C/C has been found to be considerably high - approximately above 85 percent of the ultimate flexural strength. The fatigue strength appears to be decreasing with the increase in the number of mission cycling of the specimens. This lower strength with the mission cycled specimens is attributed to the loss of interfacial bond strength due to thermal and pressure cycling of the material. C/C is also found to be highly sensitive to the applied stress level during cyclic loading, and this sensitivity is observed to increase with the mission cycling. Weibull characterization on the fatigue data has been performed, and the wide scatter in the Weibull distribution is discussed. Fractured as well as untested specimens were C-scanned, and the progressive damage growth during fatigue is presented.

Mahfuz, Hassan↗

NASA NTRS1995

Study Of Corrosion Of Lead-Sheathed Cables

Report presents statistical analysis of corrosion failures of lead-sheathed cables that serve as primary communication links at Kennedy Space Center. In study, corrosion-failure data analyzed by use of Weibull distribution in effort to assess effectiveness of cathodic protection and to predict future failures.

Lee, Rupert U.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

Matthews, William T.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effects of Planetary Gear Ratio on Mean Service Life

Planetary gear transmissions are compact, high-power speed reductions which use parallel load paths. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single plane transmission, the planet gear has no size at a ratio of two. As the ratio increases, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a planetary with a fixed size, gear ratio, input speed power and materials. The planetary gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the bearings and gears in the reduction. Planet bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of Planetary Speed Reduction Ratio on Mean Service Life

Planetary gear transmissions are compact speed reductions which use parallel-load paths to transmit high power. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single plane planetary transmission, the speed-reduction ratio must be greater than two for planet gears to exist. As the ratio increase, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a spur-gear planetary with a fixed size, speed reduction ratio, input speed, power and materials. The planetary gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the ball bearings and spur gears in the reduction. Planet-bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of Planetary Speed-Reduction Ratio on Mean Service Life

Planetary-gear transmissions are compact speed reductions which use parallel-load paths to transmit high power. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single-plane planetary transmission, the speed-reduction ratio must be greater than two for planet gears to exist. As the ratio increases, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a spur-gear planetary with a fixed size, speed-reduction ratio, input speed, power and materials. The planetary-gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the ball bearings and spur gears in the reduction. Planet-bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Study Conducted on Sensor-Based Engine Life Calculation

Turbine engine life management is a very complicated process to ensure the safe operation of an engine subjected to complex usage. The challenge of life management is to find a reasonable compromise between the safe operation and the maximum usage of critical parts to reduce maintenance costs. The commonly used "cycle count" approach does not take the engine operation conditions into account, and it oversimplifies the calculation of the life usage. Because of the shortcomings, many engine components are regularly pulled for maintenance before their usable life is over. And, if an engine has been running regularly under more severe conditions, components might not be taken out of service before they exceed their designed risk of failure. The NASA Glenn Research Center and its industrial and academic partners have been using measurable parameters to improve engine life estimation. This study was based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 typical flights under various operating conditions. First a closed-loop engine model was developed to simulate the engine operation across the mission profile and a thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage model was used to calculate the actual damage during takeoff, where the maximum TMF accumulates. Next, a Weibull distribution was used to estimate the implied probability of failure for a given accumulated cycle count. Monte Carlo simulations were then employed to find the profiles of the TMF damage under different operating assumptions including parameter uncertainties. Finally, probabilities of failure for different operating conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the importance of a sensor-based damage calculation in order to better manage the risk of failure and on-wing life.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗