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NASA NTRS1989

Study of the atmospheric general circulation as an initial value problem with the NCAR Community Climate Model

The essential elements of the transition of a model atmosphere to the equilibrium state from two extreme rest states, a cold (240 K) state and a warm (310 K) state, were examined using the NCAR Community Climate Model. It is shown that the same equilibrium state was reached in the two spinup conditions, which was also the same that was reported for this model by Williamson and Williamson (1984), who started from still a different initial condition. The spinup from the cold initial condition was faster than that from the warm condition, although the final stages of the approach to equilibrium were very simular in both cases. It was also found that the spinup of the barotropic flow lagged behind that of the baroclinic flow and the thermal field, and the model tropics spinup was faster than that of the mid-latitudes.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
DOE OSTI2022

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2021

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2022, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2021. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). User Note: This dataset supersedes previous versions of SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery. A list of previous versions can be found in the Related Datasets section of the user guide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2022

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2023, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2022. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step Contains 35 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type) Contains one file in *.csv format Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground This data set consists of two sets of companion files: Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year R files for processing Phenocam files and flags. Contains five files in R file (*.R) format in one compressed (*.zip) file User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/y7z5mau7. The data reported here are based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes the previously released phenocam datasets (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Sp↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2023

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2024, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2023. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: (1) 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step • Contains 36 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. (2) Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type) • Contains one file in *.csv format (3) Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure • Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground This data set consists of two sets of companion files: (1) Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. • Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type • One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year (2) R files for processing Phenocam files and flags. • Contains five files in R file (*.R) format in one compressed (*.zip) file User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/sprucecams. The data reported here are based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes the previously released data inclusive of the 2015-2022 data (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Envir↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw depth and dGPS locations, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and in ambient plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2021 growth season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are also included. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 3 metadata files. This data was recorded as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment. Other datasets under the Vegetation Warming Experiment include data for environmental conditions, leaf physiology, leaf traits, and landscape and plot phenocam images. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw depth and dGPS locations, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2019

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and in ambient plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2019 growth season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are also included. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 3 data files and 3 metadata files. This data was recorded as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment. See related data files for environmental conditions, leaf physiology, leaf traits, and landscape and plot phenocam images. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Does the far-infrared/radio correlation in spiral galaxies extend to the spatial domain

A comparison is made between the spatial distribution of the thermal far-infrared and non-thermal radio emission of nearby spiral galaxies. This is done in an attempt to improve our understanding of the well known correlation between the integrated Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) far-infrared and radio emission of spiral galaxies, e.g., de Jong et al., 1985, Helou et al., 1986. A physical explanation for this correlation is not straight forward due to the ambiguous nature of the origin of the far-infrared and radio, and the dependence of the non-thermal radio on each galaxies' magnetic field. It is now widely believed that the infrared emission detected in the longer wavelength IRAS wavebands (less than 50 microns) arises from at least two distinct sources, e.g., Cox et al., 1986, Persson and Helou, 1987: (1) a warm (T approx. 40 K) component associated with dense dust clouds heated by embedded O and B type stars; and (2) a cooler (T approx. 20 K) component associated with diffuse dust distributed throughout the interstellar matter (ISM) heated by the interstellar radiation field. A link between the warm component and the radio via electrons originating in Type II supernovae (the ultimate fate of many of the O and B type stars responsible for the warm component) has been suggested by numerous authors. The supporting evidence is scarce and inconclusive. Researchers have attempted to provide some insight into the problem by looking at the spatial distribution of the different components in some nearby spiral galaxies, starting with the face-on spiral M51. The source of the far-infrared data is the IRAS chopped photometric channel (CPC) instrument. Warm and cold far-infrared fluxes integrated over all wavelengths and the radio intensity at two frequencies are plotted against radius. All plots are to a common resolution of 100 arcsec, the radio data originating from the Cambridge Low Frequency Synthesis Telescope (151 MHz) and the VLA (1490 MHz, from Condon, 1987). The warm and cold regions are assumed to be representedby a single galactic wide temperatures of 50 K and 20 K respectively. A dust emissivity of 1 has been assumed. The form of the plots is little effected by varying these assumptions. The radio and cold component curves appear to follow each other most closely, in contradiction to the simple OB star/type II supernovae hypothesis.

Howarth, Neil A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cryogenic Considerations for Superconducting Magnet System Design for the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX)

The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) has been proposed as a facility to address plasma material interaction knowledge gaps to qualify and develop materials and technologies that surround plasma environments for future fusion reactors. Utilizing different radio-frequency (rf) heating technologies, MPEX is a linear plasma device that will generate fusion reactor–like plasmas with energies and particle fluxes at the target materials with electron temperatures of 1 to 15 eV, electron densities of 10 20 to 10 21 m -3 , and ion fluxes greater than 10 24 m -2 s -1 . Starting with the MPEX requirements with respect to magnetic fields between 0.1 and 2.5 T and warm bores of either 0.65 m or 1.56 m, conceptual designs for a superconducting magnet system have been developed that utilize multiple NbTi windings distributed across seven cryostats to accommodate rf heating, water cooling, and vacuum systems needed for MPEX. While the cryogenic and magnet technologies relative to the field and space requirements are mature, the integration of these technologies across multiple cryostats presents several technical and logistical challenges. An analysis of the preferred refrigeration approach, modular recondensing liquid helium cryocoolers, was performed. Utilizing a design margin of a factor of two, this approach is feasible within the current design requirements for MPEX with some considerations related to its implementation within the thermal shields and the magnet subsystem geometries.

Duckworth, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local Thermomechanical Processing for Improving Formability of High Strength Aluminum Sheets

Limited room temperature formability hinders the wide-spread use of high strength aluminum alloys in structural body-in-white parts. Stamping or extrusion at warm temperatures or from softer tempers are the current solutions. In this work, our approach is to start with age-hardened sheets from 7xxx and 6xxx family of alloys and improve their formability using local thermomechanical processing only in the regions demanding highest ductility in the forming processes. We achieved local formability improvements with friction stir processing and introduce another process named roller-bending as a concept and showed its feasibility through finite element simulations. Initial results from FSP indicated significant deformation in the processed zones with minimal sheet distortion. FSP also resulted in dynamically recrystallized, fine grained (d < 5 µm) microstructures in the processed regions with textures significantly different from the base material. This resulted in formability improvements of > 30% in 7085-T76 and > 50% in 6111-T6 alloys as measured by minimum bend radius (r/t) ratios established with V-bending tests performed at 90° and 180° bend angles. Based on the encouraging initial results, we envision applicability of these processes in both pre- and post-stamping stages through integration of the process tools as end-effectors to robotic arms.

Nasim, Wahaz↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluating the Calibration of Aqua MODIS Bands 33, 35, and 36 During Blackbody Warm-Up Cool-Down Events

Aqua MODIS is the second MODIS instrument of NASA's Earth Observation System and has operated for over sixteen years since its launch in 2002. MODIS has sixteen thermal emissive bands (TEBs) located on two separate cold focal plane assemblies (CFPA). The TEBs are calibrated every scan using observations of an onboard blackbody (BB) and a space view port. Low saturation temperatures (Tsat) of Aqua MODIS bands 33, 35, and 36 cause these bands to saturate when the BB temperature is higher than their Tsat values during a BB warm-up cool-down (WUCD) cycle, therefore impacting the ability to perform nominal calibration. In addition, starting from around 2006, the CFPA temperature showed gradual variation from its nominally-controlled operating temperature due to a loss of its radiative cooler margin and the magnitude of its fluctuation reaching a maximum in 2013. The MODIS Characterization Support Team currently uses a correction that is dependent on the CFPA temperature to provide a gain estimate for the saturated scans during the BB WUCD. This gain estimation has been implemented in the Aqua MODIS Collection 6 (C6) and C6.1 L1B products. This paper evaluates the quality of the calibrated radiance of Aqua MODIS bands 33, 35, and 36 using simultaneous nadir observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which is also onboard the Aqua satellite. Our analysis results show that the differences between AIRS and Aqua MODIS can be controlled well within the fluctuation range compared to the periods when the BB signals for these bands are not saturated.

Li, Yonghong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw Depth and dGPS locations, Barrow, Alaska, 2017

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and at paired ambient plots lmeasured in 2017 on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2017 growing season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are included. The data package includes thaw depth and gps data in csv and xlsx formats. The xlsx files include additional metadata. The GPS data is also included in kml format. These data were collected as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology, i.e., seasonal biological events such as leaf-out and leaf-fall, regulates local climate through biophysical processes like evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo. However, the net surface temperature impact of these processes—whether ET cooling or albedo-induced warming predominates—and how the dominance changes across phenological transitions and regions remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of vegetation foliage on daytime land surface temperature (LST) following six phenological transitions, spanning from the start of season to end of season, in deciduous and mixed forests across the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere during 2013–2021 using multiple satellite products and ground observations. We quantified vegetation effect as the difference between observed LST and LST estimates from the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model, representing a no-foliage scenario. We found that vegetation-induced cooling consistently outweighs warming following all phenological transitions except for the end of the season. Cooling intensity increased with vegetation greenness, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 0.15 SD) in 59% of forests after the start of the season (SOS) to 6.1 ± 0.8 °C in 89% of forests following the onset of maturity, before declining toward the end of the season. Over half of the regions experiencing cooling showed intensification of surface cooling with climate warming, suggesting an amplified vegetation-mediated cooling under future climate change. The findings provide a more precise understanding of the role of vegetation in modulating climate at the intraseasonal scale, highlighting the importance of integrating phenological impacts into climate adaptation strategies and Earth system modeling.

albedo↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗
NASA NTRS2019

Widespread Increase of Boreal Summer Dry Season Length Over the Congo Rainforest

Dry season length strongly influences tropical rainforest vegetation and is largely determined by precipitation patterns. Over the Amazon, the dry season length has increased since 1979 and severe short-term droughts have occurred. However, similar changes have not been investigated for the world’s second largest rainforest, the Congo Basin, where long-term drying and large-scale declines in forest greenness and canopy water content were reported. Here we present observational evidence for widespread increases in the boreal summer (June–August) dry season length over the Congo Basin since the 1980s, from both hydrological and ecological perspectives. We analyzed both dry season onset and dry season end via multiple independent precipitation and satellite derived vegetation datasets for the period 1979–2015. The dry season length increased by 6.4–10.4 days per decade in the period 1988–2013, primarily attributed to an earlier dry season onset and a delayed dry season end. The earlier dry season onset was caused by long-term droughts due to decreased rainfall in the pre-dry season (April–June). The delayed dry season end resulted from insufficiently replenished soil moisture, which postpones the start of the next wet season and hinders vegetation regrowth. If such changes continue, the enhanced water stress in a warming climate may affect the carbon cycle and alter the composition and structure of evergreen rainforest.

Congo rainforest growing season NDVI SIF↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗