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DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Impact of Vertical Resolution on the Representation of Marine Boundary Layer Physics for Global-Scale Models

Abstract While GCM horizontal resolution has received the majority of scale improvements in recent years, ample evidence suggests that a model’s vertical resolution exerts a strong control on its ability to accurately simulate the physics of the marine boundary layer. Here we show that, regardless of parameter tuning, the ability of a single-column model (SCM) to simulate the subtropical marine boundary layer improves when its vertical resolution is improved. We introduce a novel objective tuning technique to optimize the parameters of an SCM against profiles of temperature and moisture and their turbulent fluxes, horizontal winds, cloud water, and rainwater from large-eddy simulations (LES). We use this method to identify optimal parameters for simulating marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus. The novel tuning method utilizes an objective performance metric that accounts for the uncertainty in the LES output, including the covariability between model variables. Optimization is performed independently for different vertical grid spacings and value of time step, ranging from coarse scales often used in current global models (120 m, 180 s) to fine scales often used in parameterization development and large-eddy simulations (10 m, 15 s). Uncertainty-weighted disagreement between the SCM and LES decreases by a factor of ∼5 when vertical grid spacing is improved from 120 to 10 m, with time step reductions being of secondary importance. Model performance is shown to converge at a vertical grid spacing of 20 m, with further refinements to 10 m leading to little further improvement. Significance Statement In successive generations of computer models that simulate Earth’s atmosphere, improvements have been mainly accomplished by reducing the horizontal sizes of discretized grid boxes, while the vertical grid spacing has seen comparatively lesser refinements. Here we advocate for additional attention to be paid to the number of vertical layers in these models, especially in the model layers closest to Earth’s surface where climatologically important marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds reside. Our experiments show that the ability of a one-dimensional model to represent physical processes important to these clouds is strongly dependent on the model’s vertical grid spacing.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2018

A multigrid waveform relaxation method for solving the poroelasticity equations

In this work, a multigrid waveform relaxation method is proposed for solving a collocated finite difference discretization of the linear Biot’s model. This gives rise to the first space–time multigrid solver for poroelasticity equations in the literature. The waveform relaxation iteration is based on a point-wise Vanka smoother that couples the pressure variable at a grid-point with the displacements around it. A semi-algebraic mode analysis is proposed to theoretically analyze the convergence of the multigrid waveform relaxation algorithm. This analysis is novel since it combines the semi-algebraic analysis, suitable for parabolic problems, with the non-standard analysis for overlapping smoothers. The practical utility of the method is illustrated through several numerical experiments in one and two dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Islanding Detection of Distributed Generation Using Electrical Variables in Space Vector Domain

This paper presents a new approach for islanding detection in distribution systems incorporating synchronous generator-based distributed generations. The proposed method first utilizes the dynamic equations of three electrical variables under islanding situations. The variables are: change of frequency; rate of change of frequency; and rotor angle deviation. Second, transformation of these variables is conducted in the space vector domain, which gives rise to three parameters, namely, semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, and inclination angle. Finally, exploiting these parameters, a decision boundary is established to classify grid events resulting in the formation of an island or not. The proposed method is comprehensively investigated under different operating conditions, which include excess/deficit of reactive/active power imbalance scenarios in the formed island containing different load-types (constant impedance, constant power, and constant current) with varying quality factor. A large variety of islanding and non-islanding events are generated using a practical distribution network simulated in real time on OPAL-RT digital simulation platform under the aforementioned operating conditions. A detailed evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted and it demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.

F-measure↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Distribution System Voltage Regulation using State Estimation and DER Grid-Support Functions

Increasing solar energy penetrations may create challenges for distribution system operations because production variability can lead to large voltage deviations or protection system miscoordination. Instituting advanced management systems on distribution systems is one promising method for combating these challenges by intelligently controlling distribution assets to regulate voltage and ensure protection safety margins. While it is generally not the case today, greater deployment of power system sensors and interoperable distributed energy resources (DER)e.g., photovoltaic (PV) inverters, energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs)will enable situational awareness, control, and optimization of distribution systems. In this work, a control system was created which measures power system parameters to estimate the status of a feeder, forecasts the distribution state over a short-term horizon, and issues optimal set point commands to distribution-connected equipment to regulate voltage and protect the system. This two-year project integrated multiple research innovations into a management system designed to safely allow PV penetrations of 50% or greater. The integrated software was demonstrated through extensive real-time (RT) and power hardware-in-the-loop studies and a field demonstration on a live power system with a 684 kVA PV system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single Grid Error Estimation for Neutron Transport Solvers

The method of nearby problems (MNP) is a solution verification technique that does not require the use of multiple spatial grids. To estimate spatial discretization error without requiring a high-fidelity spatial grid, an analytical curve fit is interpolated from the numerical solution. The residual between the curve fit solution and numerical solution is calculated and added as an additional source term to the governing equation. The nearby solution is estimated using the updated source term and boundary conditions to remain consistent with the curve fit interpolation. The nearby solution can be compared to the curve fit solution as a discretization error estimation while using a single spatial grid. Without the use of higher fidelity spatial grids, the MNP is able to approximate the spatial discretization error, a facet of solution verification. The application of the method of nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional neutron transport problems for both fixed source and criticality problems on the spatial variable. The fixed source results demonstrate the effectiveness of nearby problems for spatial error identification using the discrete ordinates method. Criticality results are shown to identify area of high spatial error for the C5G7 problem as well as for the discrete ordinates solver. A novel approach of combining the capabilities of Monte Carlo with the discrete ordinates nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional fixed source problems. In conclusion, the MNP demonstrates its effectiveness at identifying spatial error on a single structured grid with a wide variety of neutron transport problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Alternative mixed integer linear programming optimization for joint job scheduling and data allocation in grid computing

This paper presents a novel approach to the joint optimization of job scheduling and data allocation in grid computing environments. We formulate this joint optimization problem as a mixed integer quadratically constrained program. To tackle the nonlinearity in the constraint, we alternatively fix a subset of decision variables and optimize the remaining ones via Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We solve the MILP problem at each iteration via an off-the-shelf MILP solver. Our experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms existing heuristic methods, employing either independent optimization or joint optimization strategies. We have also verified the generalization ability of our method over grid environments with various sizes and its high robustness to the algorithm setting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast Multigrid Reduction-in-Time for Advection via Modified Semi-Lagrangian Coarse-Grid Operators

Many iterative parallel-in-time algorithms have been shown to be highly efficient for diffusion-dominated partial differential equations (PDEs) but are inefficient or even divergent when applied to advection-dominated PDEs. We consider the application of the multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm to linear advection PDEs. Here, the key to efficient time integration with this method is using a coarse-grid operator that provides a sufficiently accurate approximation to the so-called ideal coarse-grid operator. For certain classes of semi-Lagrangian discretizations, we present a novel semi-Lagrangian-based coarse-grid operator that leads to fast and scalable multilevel time integration of linear advection PDEs. The coarse-grid operator is composed of a semi-Lagrangian discretization followed by a correction term, with the correction designed so that the leading-order truncation error of the composite operator is approximately equal to that of the ideal coarse-grid operator. Parallel results show substantial speed-ups over sequential time integration for variable-wave-speed advection problems in one and two spatial dimensions, and using high-order discretizations up to order five. The proposed approach establishes the first practical method that provides small and scalable MGRIT iteration counts for advection problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accretion onto a Supermassive Black Hole Binary before Merger

While supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) inspiral toward merger they may also accrete matter from a surrounding disk. To study the dynamics of this system requires simultaneously describing the evolving spacetime and the magnetized plasma. We present the first relativistic calculation simulating two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes as they inspiral from a 20 M (G = c = 1) initial separation almost to merger. Our results imply important observational consequences: for instance, the accretion rate $\dot{M}$ onto the black holes first decreases and then plateaus, dropping by only a factor of ~3 despite the rapid inspiral. An estimated bolometric light curve follows the same profile, suggesting some merging SMBBHs may be significantly luminous past the predicted circumbinary disk decoupling. The minidisks are nonstandard: Reynolds, not Maxwell, stresses dominate, and they oscillate between two states. In one part of the cycle, "sloshing" streams transfer mass between minidisks, carrying kinetic energy at a rate sometimes as high as the peak minidisk bolometric luminosity. We also discover that episodic accretion drives time-varying minidisk tilts. These complex dynamics all contribute to unique cyclical behavior in the light curves of late-time inspiraling SMBBHs. The poloidal magnetic flux on the black holes is roughly constant at a dimensionless level $\phi$ ~ 2–3, but doubles just before merger; for significant black hole spin, this flux predicts powerful jets with variability driven by binary dynamics, another potentially unique electromagnetic signature. This simulation is the first to employ our multipatch infrastructure PATCHWORK MHD, decreasing the computational expense to ~3% of conventional single-grid methods' cost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Characterizing Time Series Data Diversity for Wind Forecasting: Preprint

Wind forecasting plays an important role in integrating variable and uncertain wind power into the power grid. Various forecasting models have been developed to improve the forecasting accuracy. However, it is challenging to accurately compare the true forecasting performances from different methods and forecasters due to the lack of diversity in forecasting test datasets. This paper proposes a time series characteristic analysis approach to visualize and quantify wind time series diversity. The developed method first calculates six time series characteristic indices from various perspectives. Then the principal component analysis is performed to reduce the data dimension while preserving the important information. The diversity of the time series dataset is visualized by the geometric distribution of the newly constructed principal component space. The volume of the 3-dimensional (3D) convex polytope (or the length of 1D number axis, or the area of the 2D convex polygon) is used to quantify the time series data diversity. The method is tested with five datasets with various degrees of diversity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Extended-Term Simulation of Power Systems with High PV Penetration. Final Report

This is the final Technical Report for DOE-SETO Project Award # DE-EE0036461. The goal of this project is to advance the understanding of the grid impact of high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation by developing novel numerical methods to solve the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that define power systems. This will overcome the limitations of current software packages – namely that they only consider fast dynamics over brief time periods. The work presented in this final project report covers results over the entire period of the project. This includes results on model development, code development for the PST repository, datasets in the PST repository, algorithm development and results from variable time-step simulations, development and results from multirate simulations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter in variable time-step methods. In addition, this report discusses project outreach activities to stakeholders, and a summary of project products. Also covered in this final report is the writing of two conference papers (one of which has already been accepted) and a journal paper. In addition, the updating of two inverter models (both grid forming and grid following) to be compatible with the latest version of PST software is discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal operation and sizing of pumped thermal energy storage for net benefits maximization

Abstract Current trends in the modern grid are leading to the development and deployment of energy storage to help integrate increasing variable renewable energy sources into the grid. This paper studies a pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) system for multiple grid services including energy arbitrage, frequency regulation, spinning and non‐spinning reserve, and resource adequacy. Optimal dispatch methods are proposed for individual services as well as value stacking from multiple services to maximize the economic benefits. Assessment results demonstrate the superiority of value stacking. Specifically, the study shows the maximum revenue from an individual grid service with a 30‐MWh PTES system was $522,520, while the value stacking could increase the benefits to $678,477. In addition, sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the cost‐effectiveness of a PTES system with different combinations of power transfer limits and energy capacity. It was found that the power transfer limit had a greater impact than the energy capacity on the benefits. The proposed method could help determine the optimal duration of a future PTES system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Induction Motors and Variable Speed Drives for Multi-Domain System Simulations Using Modelica and the OpenIPSL Library

This paper introduces an innovative method for characterizing, implementing, and validating both three-phase and single-phase induction motor models, accompanied by a variable speed drive model. The primary goal is to investigate interactions between the electrical power grid and other dynamic domains (e.g., thermofluidic) that impact motor/load drive behavior. Our approach involves establishing a mechanical interface based on a physically meaningful equation linking motor torque/speed to the electrical model in the phasor domain. This allows seamless integration of diverse domain subsystems into a unified multi-domain model using Modelica v4.0.0 and the OpenIPSL library v3.0.1, overcoming co-simulation limitations. The proposed model, which requires only one Modelica-compliant tool for simulation, introduces additional dynamics through the mechanical interface, enabling explicit simulation of load disturbances based on constitutive physics. This deepens our understanding of dynamic interactions between the electrical power domain and other subsystems connected through the motor. We detail the modeled components using mathematical equations and textual descriptions, emphasizing the Modelica modeling approach. Simulation examples validate the implementation, demonstrating the multi-domain modeling capabilities of the newly developed components.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗