Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Valuation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Valuation of Scientific and Technical Experiments

Rational selection of scientific and technical experiments for space missions is studied. Particular emphasis is placed on the assessment of value or worth of an experiment. A specification procedure is outlined and discussed for the case of one decision maker. Experiments are viewed as multi-attributed entities, and a relevant set of attributes is proposed. Alternative methods of describing levels of the attributes are proposed and discussed. The reasonableness of certain simplifying assumptions such as preferential and utility independence is explored, and it is tentatively concluded that preferential independence applies and utility independence appears to be appropriate.

Williams, F. E.↗

General Aviation Pilots' Perceived Usage and Valuation of Aviation Weather Information Sources

Aviation suffers many accidents due to the lack of good weather information in flight. Existing aviation weather information is difficult to obtain when it is most needed and is not well formatted for in-flight use. Because it is generally presented aurally, aviation weather information is difficult to integrate with spatial flight information and retain for reference. Efforts, by NASA's Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) team and others, to improve weather information accessibility, usability and decision aiding will enhance General Aviation (GA) pilots' weather situation awareness and decision-making and therefore should improve the safety of GA flight. Consideration of pilots' economic concerns will ensure that in-flight weather information systems are financially accessible to GA pilots as well. The purpose of this survey was to describe how aviation operator communities gather and use weather information as well as how weather related decisions are made between flight crews and supporting personnel. Pilots of small GA aircraft experience the most weather-related accidents as well as the most fatal weather related accident. For this reason, the survey design and advertisement focused on encouraging participation from GA pilots. Perhaps as a result of this emphasis, most responses, 97 responses or 85% of the entire response set, were from GA pilots, This paper presents only analysis of these GA pilots' responses. The insights provided by this survey regarding GA pilots' perceived value and usage of current aviation weather information. services, and products provide a basis for technological approaches to improve GA safety. Results of this survey are discussed in the context of survey limitations and prior work, and serve as the foundation for a model of weather information value, guidance for the design of in-flight weather information systems, and definition of further research toward their development.

Latorella, Kara↗

In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

water↗

Valuation of Novel Waste Heat Sources and a Path Towards Adoption: Preprint

It is recognized that beneficial electrification of most space heating will be necessary to avert the worst consequences of climate change. Fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) networks operate at near-ambient temperatures and thus facilitate heating electrification, as well as the use of waste heat sources at a wide range of temperatures. In this paper, we analyze the potential of waste heat to supply the required heat to these networks and describe the business models that could expand the use of these waste heat sources. Showcase single family and commercial districts in the US are discussed to demonstrate emerging technologies, district infrastructure approaches, and third-party thermal utility funding models for these leading 5GDHC networks. As part of this work, heat flow and temperature profiles from five different types of waste heat sources are analyzed. An example district is used to examine the integration potential and to quantify the potential reduction in energy consumption. The results indicate that 5GDHC networks are highly suitable systems for utilizing low to moderate temperature waste heat sources. In the studied district, waste heat can cover a share of up to 66% of the heat supplied to the ambient loop and reduce the overall electricity consumption for heating by up to 51%, depending on the characteristics of the specific power, temperature, and type of waste heat source. Through their moderate operating temperatures and use of waste heat sources combined with third party financed infrastructure, 5GDHC districts have significant potential to reduce carbon emissions associated with space conditioning.

district energy↗

Understanding Resilience Valuation for Energy Systems: An Overview of the NREL-NYSERDA Research Collaboration

Energy resilience has become a national priority as Americans experience more power outages attributed to climate change, extreme weather, and cyber events. Energy system owners and operators recognize that they must prepare differently for outages today than they did in the past. Decision makers at all levels face unique challenges and opportunities in effectively and equitably executing a transition to more resilient power systems. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) recently added resilience to its mission statement. The authority engaged with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in a collaborative effort to: 1) understand options for measuring and valuing resilience investment benefits, and 2) inform how resilience could be operationalized across NYSERDA initiatives and program areas.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pumped Storage Hydro Model Evaluation Report Task 1: Tool Assessment

Pumped storage hydro (PSH) projects support various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH projects and the many services and contributions to the system they provide can be a challenge. The PSH techno-economic studies being carried out by a 5-lab consortium are defining extensive modeling approaches for evaluating the economic benefits of PSH projects. To enhance the impact of the valuation approach and follow-on techno-economic studies, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will be developing a set of online tools that industry could adopt and use to advance PSH projects in the US. The problem is that the research team is not entirely clear on the features of the tools that would offer the most significant impact to industry. Thus, year one of this effort is designed to first define the needs of industry before developing the PSH valuation tool. The first step in defining industry needs is to evaluate existing tool packages, including those created by DOE and those by industry groups, to both measure usage levels and define tool attributes that maximize industry impact. The second step in this process will be to hold a workshop designed to elicit direct industry input. Given the breadth and nature of the task, which is to define ideal model attributes, the research team did not constrain the assessment to storage valuation tools. Several tools were assessed, and their characteristics compared against a list of “ideal” attributes that included ease of use, generalizability of results, and analytical flexibility. Information regarding usage and impact were then compared to specific model attributes to define which attributes appear to drive success. The following key lessons and implications can be drawn from the analysis: Models with high ease of use were often the most adopted by industry, though they did not necessarily have high publication reference records, meaning a published article made direct reference to the tool. For example, REScheck TM and COMcheck TM , two tools which share a site, have seen a high amount of web traffic and usage. Similarly, Storage Value Estimate Tool (StorageVET®), an energy storage valuation model, has a large number of organizations using it despite a low publication reference record. A common feature between these models is that they are web-hosted, theoretically making them more easily accessible with graphic user interfaces (GUIs) that are more navigable; Models with higher usage statistics were typically free and/or open source. While it may be unsurprising that this attribute could be considered a draw for users, there is the potential for overestimating the tool's value based on popularity due to the fact that some users may have used the model simply because it was free and not because it is the best model; Models that offer more in-depth analysis and a wide coverage of applications (e.g. VOLTTRON™, GridLAB-D™, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVest)) have shown a high number of publication references as well as showing a high number of downloads in the case of GridLAB-D™. It should be noted that the figure below does not include the model with the highest number of publication references (EnergyPlus™) as it has been removed to show clearer distinction between the remaining tools; The most popular model within the evaluation list was EnergyPlus™. This tool has the highest number of publication references (2,034) of all models considered and contains both a high ease of use level as well as broad application flexibility. Its high usage may be correlated, however, with the presumed wider audience conducting energy consumption modeling compared to the audiences for some of the other tools in this list; Models that were low in both general usage and publication reference generally did not exhibit characteristics considered ideal by the research team. Some of these models offered a narrower range of analytical applications or lower generalizability of results. This would automatically restrict the pool of potential users to those who fall within a narrow range of specific technologies or applications. This report also explores two model structures for the PSH tool: decision tree-based, which would guide the user through the valuation methods defined in the PSH techno-economic studies currently being carried out by DOE, and an all-inclusive comprehensive model. The strengths of each were explored and a hybrid approach was defined that would embed a price taker model into the decision tree approach. Such an approach would provide a comprehensive approach for modeling small-scale PSH while recognizing the challenges associated with implementing a price-maker approach in an all-inclusive model. Insight gained in this analysis of other models can aid in narrowing down the list of effective and sought-after attributes, and in defining model structure. Next steps toward developing a model for storage valuation will be to gain direct industry input through workshops.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Valuing wind as a distributed energy resource: A literature review

As more distributed energy resources are deployed on electric grid systems across the world, it is important to identify, characterize, and quantify the value elements of different types of distributed energy resources so that policymakers, developers, and utilities can make informed energy deployment decisions. This paper focuses on the value of wind energy as a distributed energy resource (i.e., “distributed wind”). Because of a lack of distributed wind-specific valuation studies, in this review we document the current state of distributed energy resource valuation, analyze a wide array of distributed energy resource valuation metastudies, and identify several value elements for which we recommend developing more robust and standardized calculation methodologies for their potential inclusion in distributed wind valuation. These value elements are ancillary services and locational, resilience, reliability, and resource diversity benefits. Furthermore, this work lays the foundation for a future comprehensive framework for distributed wind valuation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS

The Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC) was formed to address pressing challenges in the commercialization of microalgae as a source of biofuel. The “Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS” project formally addressed two US Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) goals: (1) Model the sustainable supply of 1 million metric tonnes ash free dry weight (AFDW) cultivated algal biomass and (2) Demonstrate valuable co-products produced along with biofuel intermediates to increase value of algal biomass by 30%. To achieve these goals, the project demonstrated and validated high-value co-products to drive down the cost of biofuel by increasing the value of algae “co-products” towards increasing the selling price of total algae biomass as one of the key drivers of economics and adoption. This was accomplished through five core, interdependent tasks including: (1) strain selection to identify and deliver strains for mass culture, (2) mass culture using a hybrid cultivation system and following key operating parameters for downstream applications to provide algae feedstock, (3) recovery and conversion to evaluate two alternative methods to separate dry algae biomass into oil and residuals for downstream testing, (4) product assessment to determine biofuel, aquafeed or poultry feed product efficacy using algae biomass fractions as well as to provide critical performance data for valuation and (5) commercialization to use technoeconomic and life cycle assessments (TEA/LCA) as iterative design and assessment tools including consideration of target markets, competitors, and distribution channels to guide product assessment, development and valuation. A total of 46 peer-review publications, many open-access, provide detail of much of the work carried out and the results of the tasks. Additional reports and presentations provide other technical and public engagement material. At a high level, using a variety of approaches, more than 1000 marine microalgae strains were evaluated to ultimately identify the seven winners that were down-selected to be grown in mass culture. Strain selection demonstrated that there were no ‘super strains’ and that each candidate had strengths and limitations for specific products, growth conditions or operational considerations. Mass culture growth of these seven strains at >5000 L / 29 m 2 scale found that four them were suitable for product assessment. More than 250 kg of biomass was produced across hundreds of pond runs along with thousands of cultivation entries on the growth and biomass characteristics as well as environmental parameters. In the process, dozens of standard operating procedures were generated as was custom software to process and analyze cultivation data. Recovery and conversion of algae biomass demonstrated that a hexane solvent based extraction protocol was most effective at recovering oil (biocrude) from algae and four strains were processed to produce oil and lipid extracted algae (residuals) for downstream testing. Membrane-based oil separation was less successful, but may still be applicable to other commercial applications in the future. Product testing demonstrated that algae biocrude is of high quality and hydrotreating generated numerous fractions of high quality composition for fuel and lubricate based applications. Aquafeed studies performed at a variety of scales showed that both whole and defatted (lipid extracted algae) microalgae were suitable as a feed ingredient, but that the specifics of the fed animal and biochemical composition of the algae are critical factors when determining formulation. Similarly, poultry studies on whole and defatted microalgae generally showed positive outcomes on animal growth and health, with some microalgae providing enhanced nutritional composition of the animal product. Economic and life cycle assessments covered a wide range of possible commercialization and sustainability scenarios. Replacement value, improved product value added, consumer values marketing added valuation and improved animal health were considered as alternatives for microalgae valuation. Using the open pond system, algae productivity was identified as the key driver of commercialization economics, but combination of co-products (e.g. animal feed) with biofuel production substantially increased the total selling price of algae. Modeled microalgae selling price exceeded $\$$1500/tonne and could generate competitive biofuel selling prices below $\$$5 gallon gas equivalents using realistic algal productivities. Short (process scale) and longer (decadal trends) sustainability assessments show that marine microalgae can enhance the sustainability of energy production and lead to other realized benefits in water, fertilizer and land use for other sectors (e.g. agriculture). This project successfully demonstrated all of the components of an end-to-end process from mass microalgae cultivation and dewatering, to recovery and conversion of algae biomass components, to final product demonstration and process valuation; the combined results provide a framework for future commercialization of algae based biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Illinois Distributed Generation Rebate - Preliminary Stakeholder Input and Calculation Considerations

What is the value of distributed generation to the distribution system and how do we assign that value to a rebate? This white paper is an update to Illinois Distributed Generation Rebate Calculation Considerations (PNNL-27569) and provides a preliminary look at potential distributed generation valuation methodologies and compensation options for Illinois by taking into consideration data needs and availability, stakeholder comments, and Illinois Public Utilities Act language. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is supporting the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) with initial stakeholder engagement to advance the conversation around distributed generation valuation in Illinois. PNNL’s educational support will help set the stage for a productive formal process as the ICC will be called upon, in relatively short order, to start formal distributed generation valuation proceedings in response to Illinois Public Act 99-0906, also known as the Future Energy Jobs Act (FEJA), and codified in Illinois Public Utilities Act Section 16-107.6. This white paper does not represent the ICC’s formal investigation of distributed generation rebate valuation and is not intended to characterize or prejudge any decisions on behalf of the ICC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗