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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Citizen science coupled with machine learning to quantify green-blue infrastructure cooling potential in Maricopa County, Arizona

Here, this study investigates the spatiotemporal cooling performance of green and blue infrastructure (GBI) in the Dobson Ranch urban neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona. We leveraged citizen science near-surface (2 m) air temperature (Tair) measurements to train a highly accurate Tair predicting LightGBM machine learning model (R 2 : 0.986, MAE: 0.251 °C, RMSE: 0.585 °C). On June 16, 2024, the park area exhibited approximately 1 °C cooling effect (relative to the neighborhood mean) during both day and night. In contrast, the nearby artificial lake exhibited a stronger cooling effect of 2.4 °C during the day but a slight warming of 0.3 °C at night. At 00:00, locations 50 m downwind of the park were 0.3 °C warmer than the park, while locations 50 m upwind were 0.8 °C warmer. At 11:00, we observed that the downwind area is 0.8 °C cooler and the upwind area is 0.6 °C warmer—at the same 50 m distances relative to the park. We also observed 1 °C cooler and warmer effects respectively at the same 50 m downwind and upwind locations at 19:00 on June 17, 2024. Our data-driven analysis highlights potential limitations of car-traverse measurements, showing that failure to account for temporal variations during the traverse can lead to overestimation of Tair at night and underestimation during the day. Our analysis also showed only a weak correlation (coefficient: 0.48) between Landsat-derived land surface temperature (LST) and model predicted Tair at the time of the local Landsat overpass (∼11.00). This highlights the potential error of relying solely on LST for human thermal exposure analysis—particularly within the heterogenous built-environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗
NASA NTRS2013

10 Yr Spatial and Temporal Trends of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Southeastern US Estimated Using High-resolution Satellite Data

Long-term PM2.5 exposure has been reported to be associated with various adverse health outcomes. However, most ground monitors are located in urban areas, leading to a potentially biased representation of the true regional PM2.5 levels. To facilitate epidemiological studies, accurate estimates of spatiotemporally continuous distribution of PM2.5 concentrations are essential. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used for PM2.5 concentration estimation due to its comprehensive spatial coverage. Nevertheless, an inherent disadvantage of current AOD products is their coarse spatial resolutions. For instance, the spatial resolutions of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) are 10 km and 17.6 km, respectively. In this paper, a new AOD product with 1 km spatial resolution retrieved by the multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm was used. A two-stage model was developed to account for both spatial and temporal variability in the PM2.5-AOD relationship by incorporating the MAIAC AOD, meteorological fields, and land use variables as predictors. Our study area is in the southeastern US, centered at the Atlanta Metro area, and data from 2001 to 2010 were collected from various sources. The model was fitted for each year individually, and we obtained model fitting R2 ranging from 0.71 to 0.85, MPE from 1.73 to 2.50 g m3, and RMSPE from 2.75 to 4.10 g m3. In addition, we found cross validation R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.78, MPE from 2.00 to 3.01 g m3, and RMSPE from 3.12 to 5.00 g m3, indicating a good agreement between the estimated and observed values. Spatial trends show that high PM2.5 levels occurred in urban areas and along major highways, while low concentrations appeared in rural or mountainous areas. A time series analysis was conducted to examine temporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that the PM2.5 levels in the study area followed a generally declining trend from 2001 to 2010 and decreased about 20 during the period. However, there was an exception of an increase in year 2005, which is attributed to elevated sulfate concentrations in the study area in warm months of 2005. An investigation of the impact of wild and prescribed fires on PM2.5 levels in 2007 suggests a positive relationship between them.

particulate matter (PM2.5)↗
NASA NTRS2010

High-Altitude Hydration System

Three methods are being developed for keeping water from freezing during high-altitude climbs so that mountaineers can remain hydrated. Three strategies have been developed. At the time of this reporting two needed to be tested in the field and one was conceptual. The first method is Passive Thermal Control Using Aerogels. This involves mounting the fluid reservoir of the climber s canteen to an inner layer of clothing for better heat retention. For the field test, bottles were mounted to the inner fleece layer of clothing, and then aerogel insulation was placed on the outside of the bottle, and circumferentially around the drink straw. When climbers need to drink, they can pull up the insulated straw from underneath the down suit, take a sip, and then put it back into the relative warmth of the suit. For the field test, a data logger assessed the temperatures of the water reservoir, as well as near the tip of the drink straw. The second method is Passive Thermal Control with Copper-Shielded Drink Straw and Aerogels, also mounted to inner layers of clothing for better heat retention. Braided wire emanates from the inside of the fleece jacket layer, and continues up and around the drink straw in order to use body heat to keep the system-critical drink straw warm enough to keep water in the liquid state. For the field test, a data logger will be used to compare this with the above concept. The third, and still conceptual, method is Active Thermal Control with Microcontroller. If the above methods do not work, microcontrollers and tape heaters have been identified that could keep the drink straw warm even under extremely cold conditions. Power requirements are not yet determined because the thermal environment inside the down suit relative to the external environment has not been established. A data logger will be used to track both the external and internal temperatures of the suit on a summit day.

Parazynski, Scott E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Leonardo-BRDF: A New Generation Satellite Constellation

Instantaneous net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is one of the primary drivers of climate and global change. Since the dawn of the satellite era, great efforts and expense have gone into measuring this flux from single satellites and even (for a several-year period) from a constellation of three satellites called ERBE. However, the reflected solar flux is an angular and spectral integral over the so-called "BRDF" or Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function, which is the angular distribution of reflected solar radiation for each solar zenith angle and each wavelength. Previous radiation flux satellites could not measure instantaneous BRDF, so scientists have had to fall back on models or composites. Because their range of observed solar zenith angles was very limited due to sunsynchronous orbits, the resultant flux maps are too inaccurate to see the dynamics of radiation flux or to reliably correlate it with specific phenomena (hurricanes, biomass fires, urban pollution, dust outbreaks, etc.). Accuracy only becomes acceptable after monthly averaging, but this washes out almost all cause-and-effect information, further exacerbated by the lack of spectral resolution. Leonardo-BRDF is a satellite system designed to measure the instantaneous spectral BRDF using a formation of highly coordinated satellites, all pointing at the same Earth targets at the same time. It will allow scientists for the first time to assess the radiative forcing of climate due to specific phenomena, which is bound to be important in the ongoing debate about global warming and what is causing it. The formation is composed of two satellite types having, as instrument payloads, single highly-integrated miniature imaging spectrometers or radiometers. Two nearby "keystone" satellites anchor the formation and fly in static orbits. They employ wide field of view imaging spectrometers that are extremely light and compact. The keystone satellites are identical and can operate in alongtrack or cross-track mode, or anything in between, at ground command. This provides inherent system redundancy and cross-calibration capability. Several "wing-man" satellites in non-static orbits fly in formation up to 1000 km out from the keystone satellites to provide additional along- and cross-track angular sampling. They view the target(s) observed by the keystone satellites from different zenith and azimuth angles and are maneuverable within a limited range of zenith angle using thrusters, and within a large range of azimuth angle using clever orbit design. The wing-man satellites carry single miniature imaging radiometers with just a few wavelength bands in order to be lighter and more agile.

Esper, Jaime↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P)Aircraft Mission: Design, Execution, and First Results

The NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission was conducted in February-April 2001 over the NW Pacific (1) to characterize the Asian chemical outflow and relate it quantitatively to its sources and (2) to determine its chemical evolution. It used two aircraft, a DC-8 and a P-3B, operating out of Hong Kong and Yokota Air Force Base (near Tokyo), with secondary sites in Hawaii, Wake Island, Guam, Okinawa, and Midway. The aircraft carried instrumentation for measurements of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone and its precursors, aerosols and their precursors, related species, and chemical tracers. Five chemical transport models (CTMs) were used for chemical forecasting. Customized bottom-up emission inventories for East Asia were generated prior to the mission to support chemical forecasting and to serve as a priori for evaluation with the aircraft data. Validation flights were conducted for the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument and revealed little bias (6 plus or minus 2%) in the MOPITT measurements of CO columns. A major event of transpacific Asian pollution was characterized through combined analysis of TRACE-P and MOPITT data. The TRACE-P observations showed that cold fronts sweeping across East Asia and the associated warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the dominant pathway for Asian outflow to the Pacific in spring. The WCBs lift both anthropogenic and biomass burning (SE Asia) effluents to the free troposphere, resulting in complex chemical signatures. The TRACE-P data are in general consistent with a priori emission inventories, lending confidence in our ability to quantify Asian emissions from socioeconomic data and emission factors. However, the residential combustion source in rural China was found to be much larger than the a priori, and there were also unexplained chemical enhancements (HCN, CH3Cl, OCS, alkylnitrates) in Chinese urban plumes. The Asian source of CCl4 was found to be much higher than government estimates. Measurements of HCN and CH3CN indicated a dominant biomass burning source and ocean sink for both gases. Large fractions of sulfate and nitrate were found to be present in dust aerosols. Photochemical activity in the Asian outflow was strongly reduced by aerosol attenuation of UV radiation, with major implications for the concentrations of HOx, radicals. New particle formation, apparently from ternary nucleation involving NH3, was observed in Chinese urban plumes.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Cities Breathe: Ground-Referenced, Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging Precursor Measurements To Space-Based Monitoring

Methane's (CH4) large global warming potential (Shindell et al., 2012) and likely increasing future emissions due to global warming feedbacks emphasize its importance to anthropogenic greenhouse warming (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, CH4 regulation has far greater near-term climate change mitigation potential versus carbon dioxide CO2, the other major anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (Shindell et al., 2009). Uncertainties in CH4 budgets arise from the poor state of knowledge of CH4 sources - in part from a lack of sufficiently accurate assessments of the temporal and spatial emissions and controlling factors of highly variable anthropogenic and natural CH4 surface fluxes (IPCC, 2007) and the lack of global-scale (satellite) data at sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve sources. Many important methane (and other trace gases) sources arise from urban and mega-urban landscapes where anthropogenic activities are centered - most of humanity lives in urban areas. Studying these complex landscape tapestries is challenged by a wide and varied range of activities at small spatial scale, and difficulty in obtaining up-to-date landuse data in the developed world - a key desire of policy makers towards development of effective regulations. In the developing world, challenges are multiplied with additional political access challenges. As high spatial resolution satellite and airborne data has become available, activity mapping applications have blossomed - i.e., Google maps; however, tap a minute fraction of remote sensing capabilities due to limited (three band) spectral information. Next generation approaches that incorporate high spatial resolution hyperspectral and ultraspectral data will allow detangling of the highly heterogeneous usage megacity patterns by providing diagnostic identification of chemical composition from solids (refs) to gases (refs). To properly enable these next generation technologies for megacity include atmospheric radiative transfer modeling the complex and often aerosol laden, humid, urban microclimates, atmospheric transport and profile monitoring, spatial resolution, temporal cycles (diurnal and seasonal which involve interactions with the surrounding environment diurnal and seasonal cycles) and representative measurement approaches given traffic realities. Promising approaches incorporate contemporaneous airborne remote sensing and in situ measurements, nocturnal surface surveys, with ground station measurement

Leifer, Ira↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aerosol Seasonal Variations over Urban-Industrial Regions in Ukraine According to AERONET and POLDER Measurements

The paper presents an investigation of aerosol seasonal variations in several urban-industrial regions in Ukraine. Our analysis of seasonal variations of optical and physical aerosol parameters is based on the sun-photometer 2008-2013 data from two urban ground-based AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sites in Ukraine (Kyiv, Lugansk) as well as on satellite POLDER instrument data for urban-industrial areas in Ukraine. We also analyzed the data from one AERONET site in Belarus (Minsk) in order to compare with the Ukrainian sites. Aerosol amount and optical depth (AOD) values in the atmosphere columns over the large urbanized areas like Kyiv and Minsk have maximum values in the spring (April-May) and late summer (August), whereas minimum values are observed in late autumn. The results show that fine-mode particles are most frequently detected during the spring and late summer seasons. The analysis of the seasonal AOD variations over the urban-industrial areas in the eastern and central parts of Ukraine according to both ground-based and POLDER data exhibits the similar traits. The seasonal variation similarity in the regions denotes the resemblance in basic aerosol sources that are closely related to properties of aerosol particles. The behavior of basic aerosol parameters in the western part of Ukraine is different from eastern and central regions and shows an earlier appearance of the spring and summer AOD maxima. Spectral single-scattering albedo, complex refractive index and size distribution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere column over Kyiv have different behavior for warm (April-October) and cold seasons. The seasonal features of fine and coarse aerosol particle behavior over the Kyiv site were analyzed. A prevailing influence of the fine-mode particles on the optical properties of the aerosol layer over the region has been established. The back-trajectory and cluster analysis techniques were applied to study the seasonal back trajectories and prevailing directions of the arrived air mass for the Kyiv and Minsk sites.

Ukraine↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining seasonal performance metrics for room air-conditioning in emerging markets: Integrating building simulations with real-world equipment performance data

Buildings significantly impact worldwide energy consumption, emphasizing the need to reduce the cooling energy demand, especially in warm climates. Minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and seasonal performance metrics such as the Cooling Seasonal Performance Factor (CSPF) are crucial for improving room air conditioning (RAC) efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil, where seasonal performance metrics have recently been introduced. This study assesses the factors influencing country-level seasonal efficiency metrics and proposes a framework to refine these calculations by considering local climates and expected RAC usage in real-world households via building simulations. Key considerations include outdoor air temperature binning for different climates, RAC usage patterns (i.e., daytime and nighttime usages), envelope thermal performance of households, and urban heat island (UHI) effects. The results reveal that CSPF values can vary significantly based on climate conditions, with observed CSPF ranging from 4.10 to 11.59 Wh/Wh across 577 Brazilian climates. The inclusion of UHI effects led to a reduction in CSPF values by up to 29% during nighttime operations in hot urban areas. Additionally, building envelope efficiency showed contrasting impacts on RAC performance, with CSPFs reaching up to 15.35 Wh/Wh under specific optimized conditions. These findings highlight the need for transparent policymaking in RAC performance databases, facilitating the application of approaches like those proposed in this study and supporting diverse stakeholders in decision-making.

Bavaresco, Mateus↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The ozone hole is a massive loss of ozone that annually occurs over Antarctica during the Austral spring (August-November). Man-made chlorine and bromine compounds cause the ozone hole. As opposed to local urban pollution, the hole illustrates how man-made chemicals can affect the atmosphere over enormous regions remote from their release point. These chlorine and bromine gases have long lifetimes in the atmosphere; hence, the ozone hole will slowly recover into the next few decades. In this talk I will briefly cover some of the history of the Antarctic ozone hole and the theory behind the phenomena. I will then discuss the recovery of ozone over Antarctica. State-of-the-art computer models project the recovery of the ozone hole to 1980 levels by about 2050. However, this recovery may be affected by greenhouse warming.

Newman, Paul A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid climate action is needed: comparing heat vs. COVID-19-related mortality

Abstract The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected impacts of climate change in the context of COVID-19, a recent human health catastrophe. We compared projected heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths in 38 cities worldwide and found that in half of these cities, heat-related deaths could exceed annual COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years (at + 3.0 °C increase in global warming relative to preindustrial). In seven of these cities, heat mortality could exceed COVID-19 deaths in less than five years. Our results underscore the crucial need for climate action and for the integration of climate change into public health discourse and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Amazon River‐Breeze Circulation Limits Detection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in Warm Clouds

Increased aerosol concentrations can brighten low-level clouds and extend their lifetimes, but aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain highly uncertain and difficult to quantify. We show that part of this uncertainty is caused by topographical influences on clouds, that is, those arising from land–water contrasts. This is demonstrated using satellite retrievals in regions with extensive river networks, such as the Amazon Basin. 15 years of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data show cloud formation over the Amazon River basin is suppressed by 26% with warm low clouds above the river exhibiting a 22% smaller droplet effective radius and 18% higher droplet concentration ($N_d$) compared to adjacent land clouds. Thus, clouds above the river may appear polluted but are actually influenced by river-breeze circulations driven by the thermal contrast between the river and the surrounding land. These responses are robust in both wet and dry seasons, and tests using an improved MODIS retrieval product show cloud differences are unlikely due to retrieval artifacts. In situ measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon) confirm that $N_d$ is elevated above rivers and are also higher when carbon monoxide concentrations are elevated near the large city of Manaus. Lagrangian airmass tracking over Manaus shows that regional-scale river-breeze circulations impact $N_d$ as much as the urban aerosol plume, complicating ACI attribution and highlighting the need to isolate land-surface effects to assess ACI in continental regions.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combined Bernstein Polynomial, Optimal Reciprocal Collision Avoidance, Differential Dynamic Programming for Trajectory Replanning and Collision Avoidance for UAM Vehicles

This paper presents an integration of Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) with the Optimal Reciprocal Collision Avoidance (ORCA) algorithm as the basis for a new algorithm, titled Combined Bernstein Polynomial Optimal Reciprocal Collision Avoidance DDP (COBRA-DDP), for trajectory replanning and collision avoidance for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles. State-constrained variants of DDP provide the ability to plan trajectories while avoiding obstacles, but these methods require a large increase in computational time per iteration which hinders the overall speed of the algorithm. ORCA utilizes simplified dynamics to recognize potential collisions along a trajectory and provides an optimal velocity for the avoidance of multiple vehicles. These velocity commands, however, may not result in a dynamically feasible trajectory for DDP to plan around. As such, a Bernstein polynomial curve that considers the general dynamic constraints of the vehicle is generated to approximate a trajectory based on the velocity commands. COBRA-DDP optimizes this suggested trajectory via unconstrained DDP to provide a dynamically feasible trajectory that provides collision avoidance. This new trajectory can be applied to the vehicle or used to warm start the state constrained DDP algorithms to decrease computation time. Its benefits and effectiveness of the algorithm are demonstrated on a UAM Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) vehicle simulation with highly nonlinear dynamics.

Optimal Reciprocal Collision Avoidance↗