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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

Seebeck effect↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity in the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis

In this work, the multi-physics coupling of CTF-PARCS for both steady-state and transient simulations is evaluated focusing on the quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity when applied to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty safety analysis. For the steady-state, a Picard iteration approach is adopted in the coupled code while for the transient an explicit approach has been developed as a first step. The CTF-PARCS coupling is applied to the REA at HFP BOC scenario proposed in the exercise I-2c of LWR-UAM benchmark Phase III. Two different modeling choices are investigated for the nominal calculations. The first consists of including the 3D burnup information in CTF, and the second of modeling the spacers grids in both PARCS and CTF. It is observed that due to the degradation of the fuel thermal conductivity, the 3D burnup inclusion in CTF leads to significant higher centerline temperatures than the base case, with a difference up to 300 K. The spacer grids modeling shows the expected power and temperature decrease in the axial positions of the spacer grids. For the uncertainty quantification study, the multi-physics modeling including the burnup information in CTF is used. The results show that the inserted reactivity has a relative standard deviation of 13.6% mainly attributed to the nuclear data. The maximum linear power has a relative standard deviation of 16.2% due to the nuclear data as well, while the maximum centerline temperature has a relative standard deviation of 3.5% primarily caused by the fuel thermal conductivity. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Smith, Brett A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study Reservoir Productivity Uncertainty Analysis for the Tuscarora Sandstone, Morgantown, WV

This dataset contains figures that summarize the Tuscarora Sandstone core permeability data collected from the Preston 119 well in Preston County, WV, and summary results of a stochastic analysis that was used to estimate reservoir productivity for the currently unexplored Tuscarora Sandstone below Morgantown, West Virginia. Uncertainties in reservoir productivity considered the thickness of the reservoir, rock permeability, and fluid viscosity. A Monte Carlo analysis of these uncertain properties was used to predict reservoir flow productivity for the case of a matrix-dominated reservoir, and a fracture-dominated reservoir. These results are summarized in figures, spreadsheets, and maps.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extension of Complex Refractive Index Measurements to the Near-Infrared for Liquids: Methodology and Uncertainty Analysis

Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Analysis of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube

This paper outlines a methodology to identify the measurement uncertainty of NASA Langley s Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) over its operating range, and to identify the parameters that most significantly contribute to the acoustic impedance prediction. Two acoustic liners are used for this study. The first is a single-layer, perforate-over-honeycomb liner that is nonlinear with respect to sound pressure level. The second consists of a wire-mesh facesheet and a honeycomb core, and is linear with respect to sound pressure level. These liners allow for evaluation of the effects of measurement uncertainty on impedances educed with linear and nonlinear liners. In general, the measurement uncertainty is observed to be larger for the nonlinear liners, with the largest uncertainty occurring near anti-resonance. A sensitivity analysis of the aerodynamic parameters (Mach number, static temperature, and static pressure) used in the impedance eduction process is also conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach. This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the impedance eduction process is virtually insensitive to each of these parameters.

Brown, Martha C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PWR spent fuel observables to operational and model parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) observables - decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rate - to operational and model parameters have been performed. A 2D model representing a typical PWR 17x17 UO{sub 2} fuel assembly has been taken as reference. The Serpent code and ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library have been used for the analyses. Relative uncertainty of decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rates due to Monte Carlo counting statistics, as well as the number of fuel pin radial regions required for an accurate characterization of SNF neutron emission, have been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the impact of the homogenization to an average value of the fuel and moderator temperature, boron concentration power and burnup on the prediction of the selected observables. In addition, linear sensitivity coefficients have been calculated. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Experimental Design through Uncertainty Analysis

In this paper, the development of a fission-gas collecting and physical-analysis-enabling instrument was proposed for small-volume determination. Analysis specifications require a design capable of accurately and repeatably determining volumes in the range of 0.07–2.5 mL. This system relies on a series of gas expansions originating from a cylinder with known internal volume. The combined gas law is used to derive the unknown volumes from these expansions. Initial system designs included one of two known volumes, 11.85 ± 0.34 mL and 5.807 ± 0.078 mL, with a manifold volume of 32 mL. Results obtained from modeling this system’s operation showed that 0.07 mL can be determined with a relative expanded uncertainty greater than 300% (k = 2) for a single replicate, which was unacceptable for the proposed experimental design. Initial modeling showed that the volume connecting the known volume and rodlet, i.e., the manifold volume, and the sensitivity of the pressure sensor were key contributors to the expanded uncertainty of the measured rodlet volume. The system’s design limited the available options for pressure sensors, so emphasis was placed on the design of the manifold volume. The final system design reduced the manifold volume to 17 mL. These changes in design, combined with replicate analysis, were able to reduce the relative expanded uncertainty by ±12% (k = 2) for the 0.07 mL volume.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Stochastic Collocation Algorithm for Uncertainty Analysis

This report describes a stochastic collocation method to adequately handle a physically intrinsic uncertainty in the variables of a numerical simulation. For instance, while the standard Galerkin approach to Polynomial Chaos requires multi-dimensional summations over the stochastic basis functions, the stochastic collocation method enables to collapse those summations to a one-dimensional summation only. This report furnishes the essential algorithmic details of the new stochastic collocation method and provides as a numerical example the solution of the Riemann problem with the stochastic collocation method used for the discretization of the stochastic parameters.

Mathelin, Lionel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust two-colour pyrometry uncertainty analysis to acquire spatially-resolved measurements

Two-colour pyrometry (2CP) has been used over several decades to study engine-relevant combustion processes, but results are generally regarded as qualitative or semi-quantitative. In many current 2CP systems, large measurement errors are introduced by parallax because the two measured wavelengths are not from the same line of sight. Here this work presents a spatially-resolved 2CP system with the objective of quantifying and reducing measurement uncertainty. An optical setup that eliminates parallax in 2CP is used together with pixel-by-pixel calibration of the camera sensor to increase measurement accuracy. Primary uncertainty terms are identified, and an error propagation analysis is performed to compute uncertainties in the final results of soot temperature, soot concentration parameter, KL, and soot mass. These methodologies are applied to investigate an auto-igniting fuel spray in a constant pressure flow rig at diesel-like conditions of high ambient pressure and temperature. Results show bias uncertainty of around 200 K (≈10%) for temperature and about 40%–60% for KL. High uncertainty was found to occur on the diffusion flame front where both optical thickness and soot concentrations are small. However, these uncertain measurement zones with relatively low soot concentrations contribute minimally to the total soot mass present in the reacting jet during the temporal evolution of the flame.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1999

Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

John S Tripp↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗