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At least 91 records · Page 5

AmeriFlux US-SD1 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SD1 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops). Site Description - US-SD1, located on mostly flat terrain with some gentle hills, is an actively managed farmland operated by working farmers following a conventional no-till corn–soybean rotation in the U.S. Midwest. US-SD1 is one of two paired working farm sites which are relatively close by; both are managed using similar conventional practices with the key difference being that the paired site (US-SD2) incorporates cover crops into its rotation, along with minor differentiating terrain and soil type, where US-SD2 is located on a gently sloped site with more sandy soils. This paired design enables direct site-to-site comparisons to assess the impacts of cover cropping on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.

Key, Kesondra [Indiana University - Bloomington]↗

AmeriFlux US-SD2 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 2 (Corn/Soy; Cover Crops)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SD2 Shatto Ditch Paired Cropland - Site 2 (Corn/Soy; Cover Crops). Site Description - US-SD2, located on gently sloped terrain, is an actively managed farmland operated by working farmers following a conventional no-till corn–soybean rotation in the U.S. Midwest. US-SD2 is one of two paired working farm sites which are relatively close by; both are managed using similar conventional practices with the key difference being that the paired site (US-SD1) incorporates cover crops into its rotation, along with minor differentiating terrain and soil type, where US-SD1 is located on mostly flat terrain with some gentle hills. This paired design enables direct site-to-site comparisons to assess the impacts of cover cropping on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.

Key, Kesondra [Indiana University - Bloomington]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-UiF University of Illinois Miscanthus 2

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UiF University of Illinois Miscanthus 2. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UiF University of Illinois Miscanthus 2 produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Agricultural field planted with miscanthus x giganteus perennial C4 bioenergy feedstock as a control site for Us-UiB when basalt began to be applied to Us-UiB in 2017. This field is typically harvested in Febraury or March. This site is located at an experimental farm approximately 2 miles south of the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign and is colocated with (500-1000m distance) all other Us-Ui sites.

Bernacchi, Carl J [Department of Crop Sciences, Un↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-UiG University of Illinois Maize-Soy 2

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UiG University of Illinois Maize-Soy 2. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UiG University of Illinois Maize-Soy 2 produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Agricultural field planted with maize in a three year rotation with soy (maize-maize-soy) as a control site for Us-UiC when basalt began to be applied to Us-UiC in 2017. The first soy rotation was in 2019. This field is typically planted in May and harvested in October. This site is located at an experimental farm approximately 2 miles south of the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign and is colocated with (500-1000m distance) all other Us-Ui sites.

Bernacchi, Carl J [Department of Crop Sciences, Un↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-VT1 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-VT1 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-VT1 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 1 (Corn/Soy; No Cover Crops) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - US-VT1 is located on flat, actively managed farmland operated by working farmers, following a conventional no-till corn–soybean rotation in the U.S. Midwest. US-VT1 is one of two paired working farm sites on the same property; both are managed using similar conventional practices, with the key difference being that the paired site (US-VT2) incorporates cover crops into its rotation. This paired design enables direct site-to-site comparisons to assess the impacts of cover cropping on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.

Key, Kesondra [Indiana University - Bloomington]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-VT2 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 2 (Corn/Soy; Cover Crops)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-VT2 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 2 (Corn/Soy; Cover Crops). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-VT2 Vermillion Tributary Paired Cropland – Site 2 (Corn/Soy; Cover Crops) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - US-VT2 is located on flat, actively managed farmland operated by working farmers, following a conventional no-till corn–soybean rotation in the U.S. Midwest that uses cover crops. US-VT2 is one of two paired working farm sites on the same property; both are managed using similar conventional practices, with the key difference being that the paired site (US-VT1) does not incorporate cover crops into its rotation. This paired design enables direct site-to-site comparisons to assess the impacts of cover cropping on carbon, water, and energy fluxes.

Key, Kesondra [Indiana University - Bloomington]↗

Proposed US Contributions to LOFT

Proposed US Enhancements include:Tantalum X -ray collimator, Additional ground station, Large Observatory for X-Ray Timing (LOFT) instrument team participation, US science support center & data archive, and Science enabled by US hardware. High-Z material with excellent stopping power. Fabricated using a combination of laser micromachining and chemical etching. Known technology capable of producing high-aspect ratio holes and large open fractions. Reduces LOFT LAD background by a factor of 3. Telemetry formats for LOFT based upon RXTE/EDS experience. Ground system software and strategies for WFM based upon RXTE/ASM automated pipeline software. MSFC engineering trade studies supporting the Ta collimator. Burst alert triggers based upon Fermi/GBM and HETE-2. Science Enhancements Enabled by US Hardware include: Tantalum collimator: Reduces background by factor of 3. Improves sensitivity to faint sources such as AGN. Eliminates contamination by bright/variable sources. outside the LAD field of view. US Ground Station: Enables continuous telemetry of all events from the WFM. Allows LAD to observe very bright >500 mCrab sources with full event resolution.

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen↗

US Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.

tropical cyclone (TC) model↗

MSR Safety Adequacy Demonstration US Contributions Towards a Common Goal

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are currently under development worldwide. The US government has been sponsoring development of MSR safety adequacy evaluation information and tools. The US is a member of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) MSR provisional System Steering Committee (pSSC). MSR pSSC collaboration is limited to exchange of open-fundamental information. Information employed to assess reactor safety adequacy needs to remain open to external scrutiny. US entities continue to measure fuel salt thermophysical and thermochemical properties, which have now been released into an open database. Non-US entities also continue to measure and openly publish fuel salt thermophysical and thermochemical properties. US entities continue to perform MSR accident progression experiments and simulations, the results of which are being reported in the open, scientific literature. The demonstrations have not yet been at sufficient scale to necessitate international collaboration.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing Two Approaches for Enhancing the Range of Simulated Scales in the E3SMv1 and the Impact on the Character of Hourly US Precipitation

Abstract Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models is essential for understanding and projecting water cycle changes across scales. Progress has been hampered by persistent deficiencies in representing precipitation frequency, intensity, and timing in current models. Here, we analyze simulated US precipitation in the low‐resolution (LR) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and assess the effect of two approaches to enhance the range of explicitly resolved scales: high‐resolution (HR) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which incur similar computational expense. Both E3SMv1‐MMF and E3SMv1‐HR capture more intense and less frequent precipitation on hourly and daily timescales relative to E3SMv1‐LR. E3SMv1‐HR improves the intensity over the Eastern and Northwestern US during winter, while E3SMv1‐MMF improves the intensity over the Eastern US and summer diurnal timing over the Central US. These results indicate that both methods may be needed to improve simulations of different storm types, seasons, and regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Nominal Energy Storage at Existing Hydropower Reservoirs in the US

Long-term planning and operation of hydropower reservoirs require an understanding of both water and energy storage. As energy storage needs of the evolving grid increase, we must account for the water and energy storage potential of these reservoirs. Given the limitations of current data on existing hydropower, we compile statistics related to storage volume and hydraulic head from publicly available data sets and examine differences in descriptions of US hydropower storage. Assembled characteristics are used to calculate nominal energy storage capacity, a simple measure of potential to generate power from a given volume of water, not factoring in detailed constraints. Inventory-based estimates of energy storage are calculated at 2,075 dams, which helps put the potential for US hydropower to support energy storage in context with similar evaluations in other regions and with other energy storage technologies. The national energy storage capacity ranges between 34.5 and 45.1 TWh depending on the information used, with 52% of energy storage located at the 10 largest reservoirs in the US. Energy storage capacities are also calculated at 236 dams with historical volume and elevation data. Finally, reservoir inflows provide context for the storage volumes and sensitivities to hydrologic variability. Larger reservoirs with greater storage volume to inflow ratios are concentrated in the Western US, but the majority of hydropower reservoirs store less than the annual inflow. We address several infrastructure and water resource informatics challenges and highlight remaining issues, including representing seasonal or shorter variability in water volumes and representing connected hydropower facilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand

Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.

COVID-19 pandemic↗

USEEIO v2.0, The US Environmentally-Extended Input-Output Model v2.0

USEEIO v2.0 is an environmental-economic model of US goods and services that can be used for life cycle assessment, footprinting, national prioritization, and related applications. This paper describes the development of the model and accompanies the release of a full model dataset as well as various supporting datasets of national environmental totals by US industry. Novel methodological elements since USEEIO v1 models include waste sector disaggregation, final demand vectors for US consumption and production, a domestic form of the model that can be used to separate domestic and foreign impacts, and price adjustment matrices for converting outputs to purchaser price and in various US dollar years. Improvements in modeling national totals of industry and environmental flows are described. The model is validated through reproduction of national totals from input data sources and through analysis of changes from the most recent complete USEEIO model that can be explained based on data updates or method changes. The model datasets can all be reproduced with open source software packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗

Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm -2 decade -1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and lower polar stratosphere for links to extreme winter cold and snow in the continental US, finding two SPV variations of interest. The first features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern US severe winter weather. The second features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern US severe winter weather. Both variations feature lower-level stretched vortices and stratospheric wave reflection. Since 2015, a northwestward shift in severe winter weather across the US is concurrent with an increase in the frequency of the westward-focused variation relative to the eastward-focused variation and a shift to more negative phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗