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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Operator assistant to support deep space network link monitor and control

Preparing the Deep Space Network (DSN) stations to support spacecraft missions (referred to as pre-cal, for pre-calibration) is currently an operator and time intensive activity. Operators are responsible for sending and monitoring several hundred operator directivities, messages, and warnings. Operator directives are used to configure and calibrate the various subsystems (antenna, receiver, etc.) necessary to establish a spacecraft link. Messages and warnings are issued by the subsystems upon completion of an operation, changes of status, or an anomalous condition. Some points of pre-cal are logically parallel. Significant time savings could be realized if the existing Link Monitor and Control system (LMC) could support the operator in exploiting the parallelism inherent in pre-cal activities. Currently, operators may work on the individual subsystems in parallel, however, the burden of monitoring these parallel operations resides solely with the operator. Messages, warnings, and directives are all presented as they are received; without being correlated to the event that triggered them. Pre-cal is essentially an overhead activity. During pre-cal, no mission is supported, and no other activity can be performed using the equipment in the link. Therefore, it is highly desirable to reduce pre-cal time as much as possible. One approach to do this, as well as to increase efficiency and reduce errors, is the LMC Operator Assistant (OA). The LMC OA prototype demonstrates an architecture which can be used in concert with the existing LMC to exploit parallelism in pre-cal operations while providing the operators with a true monitoring capability, situational awareness and positive control. This paper presents an overview of the LMC OA architecture and the results from initial prototyping and test activities.

Cooper, Lynne P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Complex Event Recognition Architecture

Complex Event Recognition Architecture (CERA) is the name of a computational architecture, and software that implements the architecture, for recognizing complex event patterns that may be spread across multiple streams of input data. One of the main components of CERA is an intuitive event pattern language that simplifies what would otherwise be the complex, difficult tasks of creating logical descriptions of combinations of temporal events and defining rules for combining information from different sources over time. In this language, recognition patterns are defined in simple, declarative statements that combine point events from given input streams with those from other streams, using conjunction, disjunction, and negation. Patterns can be built on one another recursively to describe very rich, temporally extended combinations of events. Thereafter, a run-time matching algorithm in CERA efficiently matches these patterns against input data and signals when patterns are recognized. CERA can be used to monitor complex systems and to signal operators or initiate corrective actions when anomalous conditions are recognized. CERA can be run as a stand-alone monitoring system, or it can be integrated into a larger system to automatically trigger responses to changing environments or problematic situations.

Fitzgerald, William A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Self-Cleaning Particulate Prefilter Media

A long-term space mission requires efficient air revitalization performance to sustain the crew. Prefilter and particulate air filter media are susceptible to rapid fouling that adversely affects their performance and can lead to catastrophic failure of the air revitalization system, which may result in mission failure. For a long-term voyage, it is impractical to carry replacement particulate prefilter and filter modules due to the usual limitations in size, volume, and weight. The only solution to this problem is to reagentlessly regenerate prefilter and filter media in place. A method was developed to modify the particulate prefilter media to allow them to regenerate reagentlessly, and in place, by the application of modest thermocycled transverse or reversed airflows. The innovation may allow NASA to close the breathing air loop more efficiently, thereby sustaining the vision for manned space exploration missions of the future. A novel, self-cleaning coatings technology was developed for air filter media surfaces that allows reagentless in-place regeneration of the surface. The technology grafts thermoresponsive and nonspecific adhesion minimizing polymer nanolayer brush coatings from the prefilter media. These polymer nanolayer brush architectures can be triggered to contract and expand to generate a "pushing-off" force by the simple application of modestly thermocycled (i.e. cycling from ambient cabin temperature to 40 C) air streams. The nonspecific adhesion-minimizing properties of the coatings do not allow the particulate foulants to adhere strongly to the filter media, and thermocycled air streams applied to the media allow easy detachment and in-place regeneration of the media with minimal impact in system downtime or astronaut involvement in overseeing the process.

Weber, Olivia↗
NASA NTRS2014

Performance Characterization of UV Science Cameras Developed for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP)

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a science camera suitable for sub-orbital missions for observations in the UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Six cameras will be built and tested for flight with the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP), a joint National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and MSFC sounding rocket mission. The goal of the CLASP mission is to observe the scattering polarization in Lyman-alpha and to detect the Hanle effect in the line core. Due to the nature of Lyman-alpha polarization in the chromosphere, strict measurement sensitivity requirements are imposed on the CLASP polarimeter and spectrograph systems; science requirements for polarization measurements of Q/I and U/I are 0.1% in the line core. CLASP is a dual-beam spectro-polarimeter, which uses a continuously rotating waveplate as a polarization modulator, while the waveplate motor driver outputs trigger pulses to synchronize the exposures. The CCDs are operated in frame-transfer mode; the trigger pulse initiates the frame transfer, effectively ending the ongoing exposure and starting the next. The strict requirement of 0.1% polarization accuracy is met by using frame-transfer cameras to maximize the duty cycle in order to minimize photon noise. Coating the e2v CCD57-10 512x512 detectors with Lumogen-E coating allows for a relatively high (30%) quantum efficiency at the Lyman-$\alpha$ line. The CLASP cameras were designed to operate with ≤10 e- /pixel/second dark current, ≤ 25 e- read noise, a gain of 2.0 and ≤0.1% residual non-linearity. We present the results of the performance characterization study performed on the CLASP prototype camera; dark current, read noise, camera gain and residual non-linearity.

Champey, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2011

Searching for Soft Relativistic Jets in Core-Collapse Supernovae with the IceCube Optical Follow-up Program

Context. Transient neutrino sources such as Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) and Supernovae (SNe) are hypothesized to emit bursts of high-energy neutrinos on a time-scale of < or approx.100 s. While GRB neutrinos would be produced in high relativistic jets, core-collapse SNe might host soft-relativistic jets, which become stalled in the outer layers of the progenitor star leading to an efficient production of high-energy neutrinos. Aims. To increase the sensitivity to these neutrinos and identify their sources, a low-threshold optical follow-up program for neutrino multiplets detected with the IceCube observatory has been implemented. Methods. If a neutrino multiplet, i.e. two or more neutrinos from the same direction within 100 s, is found by IceCube a trigger is sent to the Robotic Optical Transient Search Experiment, ROTSE. The 4 ROTSE telescopes immediately start an observation program of the corresponding region of the sky in order to detect an optical counterpart to the neutrino events. Results. No statistically significant excess in the rate of neutrino multiplets has been observed and furthermore no coincidence with an optical counterpart was found. Conclusions. The search allows, for the first time, to set stringent limits on current models predicting a high-energy neutrino flux from soft relativistic hadronic jets in core-collapse SNe. We conclude that a sub-population of SNe with typical Lorentz boost factor and jet energy of 10 and 3 x 10(exp 51) erg, respectively, does not exceed 4:2% at 90% confidence.

Abbasi, R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2002

The contents include: 1) Application Briefs; 2) Sneak Preview of Sensors Expo; 3) The Complexity of the Diagnosis Problem; 4) Design Concepts for the ISS TransHab Module; 5) Characteristics of Supercritical Transitional Mixing Layers; 6) Electrometer for Triboelectric Evaluation of Materials; 7) Infrared CO2 Sensor With Built-In Calibration Chambers; 8) Solid-State Potentiometric CO Sensor; 9) Planetary Rover Absolute Heading Detection Using a Sun Sensor; 10) Concept for Utilizing Full Areas of STJ Photodetector Arrays; 11) Development of Cognitive Sensors; 12) Enabling Higher-Voltage Operation of SOl CMOS Transistors; 13) Estimating Antenna-Pointing Errors From Beam Squints; 14) Advanced-Fatigue-Crack-Growth and Fracture- Mechanics Program; 15) Software for Sequencing Spacecraft Actions; 16) Program Distributes and Tracks Organizational Memoranda; 16) Flat Membrane Device for Dehumidification of Air; 17) Inverted Hindle Mount Reduces Sag of a Large, Precise Mirror; 18) Heart-Pump-Outlet/Cannula Coupling; 19) Externally Triggered Microcapsules Release Drugs In Situ; 20) Combinatorial Drug Design Augmented by Information Theory; 21) Multiple-Path-Length Optical Absorbance Cell; 22) Model of a Fluidized Bed Containing a Mixture of Particles; 23) Refractive Secondary Concentrators for Solar Thermal Systems; 24) Cold Flow Calorimeter; 25) Methodology for Tracking Hazards and Predicting Failures; 26) Estimating Heterodyne-Interferometer Polarization Leakage; 27) An Efficient Algorithm for Propagation of Temporal- Constraint Networks; 28) Software for Continuous Replanning During Execution; 29) Surface-Launched Explorers for Reconnaissance/Scouting; 30) Firmware for a Small Motion-Control Processor; 31) Gear Bearings and Gear-Bearing Transmissions; and 32) Linear Dynamometer With Variable Stroke and Frequency.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2014

Performance Characterization of UV Science Cameras Developed for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a science camera suitable for sub-orbital missions for observations in the UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Six cameras will be built and tested for flight with the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP), a joint National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and MSFC sounding rocket mission. The goal of the CLASP mission is to observe the scattering polarization in Lyman-alpha and to detect the Hanle effect in the line core. Due to the nature of Lyman-alpha polarization in the chromosphere, strict measurement sensitivity requirements are imposed on the CLASP polarimeter and spectrograph systems; science requirements for polarization measurements of Q/I and U/I are 0.1 percent in the line core. CLASP is a dual-beam spectro- polarimeter, which uses a continuously rotating waveplate as a polarization modulator, while the waveplate motor driver outputs trigger pulses to synchronize the exposures. The CCDs are operated in frame-transfer mode; the trigger pulse initiates the frame transfer, effectively ending the ongoing exposure and starting the next. The strict requirement of 0.1 percent polarization accuracy is met by using frame-transfer cameras to maximize the duty cycle in order to minimize photon noise. Coating the e2v CCD57-10 512x512 detectors with Lumogen-E coating allows for a relatively high (30 percent) quantum efficiency at the Lyman-alpha line. The CLASP cameras were designed to operate with a gain of 2.0 +/- 0.5, less than or equal to 25 e- readout noise, less than or equal to 10 e-/second/pixel dark current, and less than 0.1percent residual non-linearity. We present the results of the performance characterization study performed on the CLASP prototype camera; system gain, dark current, read noise, and residual non-linearity.

Champey, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2014

Performance Characterization of UV Science Cameras Developed for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a science camera suitable for sub-orbital missions for observations in the UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Six cameras will be built and tested for flight with the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP), a joint National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and MSFC sounding rocket mission. The goal of the CLASP mission is to observe the scattering polarization in Lyman-alpha and to detect the Hanle effect in the line core. Due to the nature of Lyman-alpha polarization in the chromosphere, strict measurement sensitivity requirements are imposed on the CLASP polarimeter and spectrograph systems; science requirements for polarization measurements of Q/I and U/I are 0.1 percent in the line core. CLASP is a dual-beam spectro-polarimeter, which uses a continuously rotating waveplate as a polarization modulator, while the waveplate motor driver outputs trigger pulses to synchronize the exposures. The CCDs are operated in frame-transfer mode; the trigger pulse initiates the frame transfer, effectively ending the ongoing exposure and starting the next. The strict requirement of 0.1 percent polarization accuracy is met by using frame-transfer cameras to maximize the duty cycle in order to minimize photon noise. Coating the e2v CCD57-10 512x512 detectors with Lumogen-E coating allows for a relatively high (30 percent) quantum efficiency at the Lyman-alpha line. The CLASP cameras were designed to operate with 10 e-/pixel/second dark current, 25 e- read noise, a gain of 2.0 +/- 0.5 and 1.0 percent residual non-linearity. We present the results of the performance characterization study performed on the CLASP prototype camera; dark current, read noise, camera gain and residual non-linearity.

Champey, P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multifunctional Inflatable Structure Being Developed for the PowerSphere Concept

NASA has funded a collaborative team of The Aerospace Corporation, ILC Dover, Lockheed Martin, and NASA Glenn Research Center to develop the Multifunctional Inflatable Structure (MIS) for a "PowerSphere" concept through a NASA Research Announcement. This power system concept has several advantages, including a high collection area, low weight and stowage volume, and the elimination of all solar array pointing mechanisms. The current 3-year effort will culminate with the fabrication and testing of a fully functional engineering development unit. The baseline design of the Power-Sphere consists of two opposing semispherical domes connected to a central spacecraft. Each semispherical dome consists of hexagonal and pentagonal solar cell panels that together form a geodetic sphere. Inflatable ultraviolet (UV) rigidizable tubular hinges between the solar cell panels and UV rigidizable isogrid center columns with imbedded flex circuitry form the MIS. The reference configuration for the PowerSphere is a 0.6-m-diameter (fully deployed) spacecraft with a total mass budget of 4 kg (1 kg for PowerSphere, 3 kg for spacecraft) capable of producing 29 W of electricity with 10-percent-efficient thin-film solar cells. In a stowed configuration, the solar cell panels will be folded sequentially to the outside of the instrument decks. The center column will be z-folded between the instrument decks and the spacecraft housing for packaging. The instrument panel will secure the z-folded stack with launch ties. After launch, once the release tie is triggered, the center column and hinge tubes will inflate and be rigidized in their final configurations by ultraviolet radiation. The overall PowerSphere deployment sequence is shown pictorially in the following illustration.

Peterson, Todd T.↗
NASA NTRS1981

JPL self-pulsed laser surface measurement system development

Distances from a fixed reference or scan postion to several locations on the surface of an antenna reflector can be measured by using a self pulsed laser ranging system. Processing the information thus obtained is used to define the shape of the surface upon which antenna operational efficiency is directly dependent. Operation of the system consists of initiating a pulse from the laser emitter which is pointed at the scan mirror. The emitted pulse strikes the scan mirror, is reflected and sent to one of several targets on the surface of the antenna. Upon reflection from the target, the pulse returns to a detector via the scan mirror. The detected pulse is amplified and used to trigger the next emitted pulse. After the first pulse is emitted, received and used to trigger another pulse the process becomes repetitive with a repitition rate uniquely determined by the distance traveled to the target and back. A measure of the repetition rate or frequency thus created provides the means required for determining range since the total distance traveled is inversely proportional to the frequency.

Berdahl, M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Computational methods and software systems for dynamics and control of large space structures

The deployment, assembly and mission-oriented maneuvering of space structures in orbit will trigger large motions of flexible, truss-type structures. In addition, the presence of on-board controls both for attitude stabilization and specified vibration tolerance requirements may further complicate the dynamic behavior of the orbiting structures. Because of safety and cost considerations, the dynamic response of the combined structural and control systems must be predicted reliably. This need can only be met through the development of reliable and efficient simulation capabilities, since there is general agreement that on-orbit experiments should be limited because of cost, time and facility constraints. The long-term objective of this research effort is to develop a next-generation computer simulator for the dynamics and control of large space structures. The simulator will be based on integrating four research thrusts: a new multibody dynamics formulation methodology, modeling capabilities in long/slender truss-beam components with realistic joints, efficient computational procedures that can be implemented either in sequential or concurrent computers, and prototype simulation modules that can be easily processed into a modern large-scale engineering software system such as the NASA/Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) testbed.

Park, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Momentum Impact Studies on Solar Cells

One efficient way of propelling a spacecraft in space is by means of a rocket (thruster). It is important to understand the process which governs the action. The propulsion system of all rockets consists of a fuel storage system of which there are many different types, due to the different varieties of fuels. There must also be a fuel transport system. The fuel is then expanded in an expansion region, triggered by some form of combustion, and is then accelerated to the nozzle region where it is expelled through the nozzle. The expelled propellant from the rocket comes out and creates a plume. The plume's interaction with spacecraft structures is the focus of this study.

Conner, James Derrick↗
NASA NTRS2013

Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

signal detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new communication protocol family for a distributed spacecraft control system

In this paper we describe the concepts behind and architecture of a communication protocol family, which was designed to fulfill the communication requirements of ESOC's new distributed spacecraft control system SCOS 2. A distributed spacecraft control system needs a data delivery subsystem to be used for telemetry (TLM) distribution, telecommand (TLC) dispatch and inter-application communication, characterized by the following properties: reliability, so that any operational workstation is guaranteed to receive the data it needs to accomplish its role; efficiency, so that the telemetry distribution, even for missions with high telemetry rates, does not cause a degradation of the overall control system performance; scalability, so that the network is not the bottleneck both in terms of bandwidth and reconfiguration; flexibility, so that it can be efficiently used in many different situations. The new protocol family which satisfies the above requirements is built on top of widely used communication protocols (UDP and TCP), provides reliable point-to-point and broadcast communication (UDP+) and is implemented in C++. Reliability is achieved using a retransmission mechanism based on a sequence numbering scheme. Such a scheme allows to have cost-effective performances compared to the traditional protocols, because retransmission is only triggered by applications which explicitly need reliability. This flexibility enables applications with different profiles to take advantage of the available protocols, so that the best rate between sped and reliability can be achieved case by case.

Baldi, Andrea↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the Howard County government in Maryland to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a prediction model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City, and transitioned to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The final product, called the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM), predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate the OEM’s emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Ryan Hammock↗