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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for surrogate process models of bioproduction pathways

Technoeconomic analysis and life-cycle assessment are critical to guiding and prioritizing bench-scale experiments and to evaluating economic and environmental performance of biofuel or biochemical production processes at scale. Traditionally, commercial process simulation tools have been used to develop detailed models for these purposes. However, developing and running such models can be costly and computationally intensive, which limits the degree to which they can be shared and reproduced in the broader research community. This study evaluates the potential of an automated machine learning approach to develop surrogate models based on conventional process simulation models. The analysis focuses on several high-value biofuels and bioproducts for which pathways of production from biomass feedstocks have been well-established. The results demonstrate that surrogate models can be an accurate and effective tool for approximating the cost, mass and energy balance outputs of more complex process simulations at a fraction of the computational expense.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Balancing Trade-offs: Adaptive Differential Privacy in Interpretable Machine Learning Models

In the advancing field of machine learning, balancing accuracy, interpretability, and privacy represents a significant challenge. The problem is exacerbated by the widespread deployment of pre-trained models locally in diverse applications, which could lead to various amounts of privacy leakage. Conventional Differential Privacy strategies, in which uniform noises are applied to model gradients, guarantee data privacy at the expense of accuracy and interpretability. This paper introduces a Feature-Sensitive Adaptive Differential Privacy (FADP) framework with a unique noise-adding strategy. Noises are adaptively added based on feature importance clustering, where important features are considered for interpretability. By employing a unique masking technique, FADP selectively preserves crucial features with minimal noise interference, maintaining accuracy while enhancing interpretability. The FADP framework addresses the limitations of traditional DP methods by preserving critical channels and improving interpretability — a vital requirement in machine learning applications that demand transparency in model decisions. Through comprehensive testing, FADP is shown to balance the trade-offs among accuracy, privacy, and interpretability, marking a substantial advancement in the field of privacy-preserving machine learning.

Farhad Riya, Farhin [University of Tennessee, Knox↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correlator convolutional neural networks as an interpretable architecture for image-like quantum matter data

Image-like data from quantum systems promises to offer greater insight into the physics of correlated quantum matter. However, the traditional framework of condensed matter physics lacks principled approaches for analyzing such data. Machine learning models are a powerful theoretical tool for analyzing image-like data including many-body snapshots from quantum simulators. Recently, they have successfully distinguished between simulated snapshots that are indistinguishable from one and two point correlation functions. Thus far, the complexity of these models has inhibited new physical insights from such approaches. Here, we develop a set of nonlinearities for use in a neural network architecture that discovers features in the data which are directly interpretable in terms of physical observables. Applied to simulated snapshots produced by two candidate theories approximating the doped Fermi-Hubbard model, we uncover that the key distinguishing features are fourth-order spin-charge correlators. Our approach lends itself well to the construction of simple, versatile, end-to-end interpretable architectures, thus paving the way for new physical insights from machine learning studies of experimental and numerical data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Battery Lifetime Modeling at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Overview of the development of algebraic battery lifetime modeling efforts within NREL's Electrochemical Energy Storage group within the Energy Conversion and Storage Systems Center. Traditional approaches to developing battery lifetime models are compared with a new methodology incorporating machine learning to autonomously identify parsimonious model equations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning interatomic potentials for interfaces in all-solid-state batteries: Perspectives on training data, model selection, and validation

Interfaces play a pivotal role in dictating the performance and reliability of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs), where complex electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena at grain boundaries (GBs) and interfaces can lead to degradation and failure. Traditional atomistic simulation methods, such as first-principles calculations and classical molecular dynamics, face limitations in modeling these interfaces due to either high computational cost or insufficient transferability to the diverse atomic environments evolving at interfaces. Machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as a transformative approach, enabling large-scale, high-accuracy simulations of disordered and chemically complex systems by leveraging the predictability of machine learning models trained on first-principles data. Recent applications of MLIPs have demonstrated their ability to capture intricate behaviors at ASSB interfaces, including ion transport, interfacial evolution, and degradation mechanisms, with accuracy and efficiency unattainable by conventional methods. This prospective paper presents comprehensive analysis and practical guidance for MLIP development for GBs and interfaces in ASSBs, with a focus on three key pillars: data generation, model selection, and validation. Here, we review the current state of MLIP applications for GBs and interfaces in both general and ASSB-specific materials, highlighting best practices and challenges in constructing diverse and representative datasets, choosing appropriate machine learning architectures, and rigorously validating model performance. We also discuss emerging strategies and opportunities for improved reliability and efficiency of MLIPs to simulate realistic interfaces in ASSBs.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted profiling of a kinked ladder polymer structure using scattering

Ladder polymers consisting of fused rings in the backbone have very limited conformational freedom, which results in very different properties from traditional linear polymers. However, accurately determining their size and chain conformations from solution scattering remains a challenge. Their chain conformations of kinked ladder polymers are largely governed by the structures and relative orientations or configurations of the repeat units, unlike conventional polymer chains whose bending angles between repeat units follow a unimodal Gaussian distribution. Meanwhile, traditional scattering models for polymer chains do not account for these unique structural features. This work introduces a novel approach that integrates machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations to construct a model that can describe the geometry of a type of kinked CANAL ladder polymers. We first develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for sampling the configuration space of CANAL ladder polymers, where each repeat unit is modeled as a biaxial segment. Then, we establish a machine learning-assisted scattering analysis framework based on Gaussian Process Regression. Finally, we conduct small-angle neutron scattering experiments on a CANAL ladder polymer solution to apply our approach. Our method uncovers structural features of such ladder polymers that conventional methods fail to capture.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The (Un)reasonable Effectiveness of Neural Network in Cherenkov Calorimetry

We report a greater than factor of two improvement in the hadronic energy resolution of a simulated Cherenkov calorimeter by estimating the energy with machine learning over traditional techniques. The prompt signal formation and energy threshold properties of Cherenkov radiation provide identifiable features that machine learning techniques can exploit to produce a superior model for energy reconstruction. We simulated a quartz-fiber calorimeter via the GEANT4 framework to study the reconstruction techniques in single events. We compared the machine learning-based reconstruction performance to the traditional simple sum of signal and dual-readout techniques that use both Cherenkov and scintillation signals. We describe why this game-changing approach to Cherenkov hadron calorimetry excels and our plans for a dedicated beam test to validate these findings with a fast, radiation-hard hadron calorimeter prototype.

Akchurin, Nural↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subtleties in the trainability of quantum machine learning models

A new paradigm for data science has emerged, with quantum data, quantum models, and quantum computational devices. This field, called quantum machine learning (QML), aims to achieve a speedup over traditional machine learning for data analysis. However, its success usually hinges on efficiently training the parameters in quantum neural networks, and the field of QML is still lacking theoretical scaling results for their trainability. Some trainability results have been proven for a closely related field called variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). While both fields involve training a parametrized quantum circuit, there are crucial differences that make the results for one setting not readily applicable to the other. In this work, we bridge the two frameworks and show that gradient scaling results for VQAs can also be applied to study the gradient scaling of QML models. Our results indicate that features deemed detrimental for VQA trainability can also lead to issues such as barren plateaus in QML. Consequently, our work has implications for several QML proposals in the literature. In addition, we provide theoretical and numerical evidence that QML models exhibit further trainability issues not present in VQAs, arising from the use of a training dataset. We refer to these as dataset-induced barren plateaus. These results are most relevant when dealing with classical data, as here the choice of embedding scheme (i.e., the map between classical data and quantum states) can greatly affect the gradient scaling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Deep Potential model for liquid–vapor equilibrium and cavitation rates of water

Computational studies of liquid water and its phase transition into vapor have traditionally been performed using classical water models. Here, we utilize the Deep Potential methodology—a machine learning approach—to study this ubiquitous phase transition, starting from the phase diagram in the liquid–vapor coexistence regime. The machine learning model is trained on ab initio energies and forces based on the SCAN density functional, which has been previously shown to reproduce solid phases and other properties of water. Here, we compute the surface tension, saturation pressure, and enthalpy of vaporization for a range of temperatures spanning from 300 to 600 K and evaluate the Deep Potential model performance against experimental results and the semiempirical TIP4P/2005 classical model. Moreover, by employing the seeding technique, we evaluate the free energy barrier and nucleation rate at negative pressures for the isotherm of 296.4 K. Further, we find that the nucleation rates obtained from the Deep Potential model deviate from those computed for the TIP4P/2005 water model due to an underestimation in the surface tension from the Deep Potential model. From analysis of the seeding simulations, we also evaluate the Tolman length for the Deep Potential water model, which is (0.091 ± 0.008) nm at 296.4 K. Finally, we identify that water molecules display a preferential orientation in the liquid–vapor interface, in which H atoms tend to point toward the vapor phase to maximize the enthalpic gain of interfacial molecules. We find that this behavior is more pronounced for planar interfaces than for the curved interfaces in bubbles. This work represents the first application of Deep Potential models to the study of liquid–vapor coexistence and water cavitation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning-based dynamic-importance sampling for adaptive multiscale simulations

Multiscale simulations are a well-accepted way to bridge the length and time scales required for scientific studies with the solution accuracy achievable through available computational resources. Traditional approaches either solve a coarse model with selective refinement or coerce a detailed model into faster sampling, both of which have limitations. Here, we present a paradigm of adaptive, multiscale simulations that couple different scales using a dynamic-importance sampling approach. Our method uses machine learning to dynamically and exhaustively sample the phase space explored by a macro model using microscale simulations and enables an automatic feedback from the micro to the macro scale, leading to a self-healing multiscale simulation. As a result, our approach delivers macro length and time scales, but with the effective precision of the micro scale. Our approach is arbitrarily scalable as well as transferable to many different types of simulations. Overall, our method made possible a multiscale scientific campaign of unprecedented scale to understand the interactions of RAS proteins with a plasma membrane in the context of cancer research running over several days on Sierra, which is currently the second-most-powerful supercomputer in the world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring model complexity in machine learned potentials for simulated properties

Abstract Machine learning (ML) enables the development of interatomic potentials with the accuracy of first principles methods while retaining the speed and parallel efficiency of empirical potentials. While ML potentials traditionally use atom-centered descriptors as inputs, different models such as linear regression and neural networks map descriptors to atomic energies and forces. This begs the question: what is the improvement in accuracy due to model complexity irrespective of descriptors? We curate three datasets to investigate this question in terms of ab initio energy and force errors: (1) solid and liquid silicon, (2) gallium nitride, and (3) the superionic conductor Li $$_{10}$$ 10 Ge(PS $$_{6}$$ 6 ) $$_{2}$$ 2 (LGPS). We further investigate how these errors affect simulated properties and verify if the improvement in fitting errors corresponds to measurable improvement in property prediction. By assessing different models, we observe correlations between fitting quantity (e.g. atomic force) error and simulated property error with respect to ab initio values. Graphical abstract

Rohskopf, A. (ORCID:0000000227128296)↗